[h=1]How to bet Detroit-Dallas[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 16 games, culminating with the Detroit-Dallas matchup Monday night.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Opened Dallas -7.5; now Dallas -6.5
Total: Opened 42.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Detroit
Public perception: The public is all over the Lions, which is surprising at first until you realize that the Cowboys have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have less incentive to give their best effort (and could rest players).
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps backed the Cowboys at books that opened -7 on the assumption the Giants would beat the Eagles on Thursday night and this line would go higher. With the line now adjusted under a full touchdown, sharps are split on this game.
Dave Tuley's take: I was planning to make this a best bet on the Lions +7.5 when the lines first came out, partly because the Lions have played close games all season long and I certainly expected them to keep this within a touchdown. In addition, the Cowboys have failed to cover their last four games, so they're not the dominant team they were earlier in the season.
We lose a little value with the dip to 6.5, but any loss in value could be offset by the Cowboys resting some starters (I know they're saying that they won't, but wait until the first starter twists an ankle and see if that changes). But even at full strength, there's a good chance the Lions will be within one score, like they have been all year.
The pick: Lions +6.5*
Rufus Peabody:
Is Detroit's luck finally running out? Despite a one-game lead over the Packers, the Lions are now an underdog to win the NFC North. Record can be deceptive, especially this season; the Lions rank 23rd in the Massey-Peabody rankings, which are predictive, not explanatory. Regardless of whether they beat Dallas (which they have only a 25.1 percent chance of doing), Detroit can win the division by beating Green Bay on the final day of the regular season. I lean slightly to the over in this game, as it's a prime-time game, indoors, between two teams that are offense-first.
Pick: Lean Over 44.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Dallas -8.2; Total: 45.9
Erin Rynning:
Sure enough, as we close Week 16, motivation (or lack of motivation) becomes a crucial consideration. Obviously, the Cowboys have nothing to gain in this contest after clinching the top seed in the NFC. Regardless, offensively the Cowboys remain potent, with the balance to give the Lions fits and the ability to make big plays in the passing game against a secondary expected to be without Darius Slay.
In addition, the Cowboys' pass defense remains susceptible to the passing game. The Lions actually moved the ball well enough last week against the Giants, but turnovers kept them from putting points on the board. Look for an entertaining Monday Night Football finale with enough points to go over the total.
Play: over
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 26, Detroit 20
The pick: Detroit and the over
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 16 games, culminating with the Detroit-Dallas matchup Monday night.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Spread: Opened Dallas -7.5; now Dallas -6.5
Total: Opened 42.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Detroit
Public perception: The public is all over the Lions, which is surprising at first until you realize that the Cowboys have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have less incentive to give their best effort (and could rest players).
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps backed the Cowboys at books that opened -7 on the assumption the Giants would beat the Eagles on Thursday night and this line would go higher. With the line now adjusted under a full touchdown, sharps are split on this game.
Dave Tuley's take: I was planning to make this a best bet on the Lions +7.5 when the lines first came out, partly because the Lions have played close games all season long and I certainly expected them to keep this within a touchdown. In addition, the Cowboys have failed to cover their last four games, so they're not the dominant team they were earlier in the season.
We lose a little value with the dip to 6.5, but any loss in value could be offset by the Cowboys resting some starters (I know they're saying that they won't, but wait until the first starter twists an ankle and see if that changes). But even at full strength, there's a good chance the Lions will be within one score, like they have been all year.
The pick: Lions +6.5*
Rufus Peabody:
Is Detroit's luck finally running out? Despite a one-game lead over the Packers, the Lions are now an underdog to win the NFC North. Record can be deceptive, especially this season; the Lions rank 23rd in the Massey-Peabody rankings, which are predictive, not explanatory. Regardless of whether they beat Dallas (which they have only a 25.1 percent chance of doing), Detroit can win the division by beating Green Bay on the final day of the regular season. I lean slightly to the over in this game, as it's a prime-time game, indoors, between two teams that are offense-first.
Pick: Lean Over 44.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Dallas -8.2; Total: 45.9
Erin Rynning:
Sure enough, as we close Week 16, motivation (or lack of motivation) becomes a crucial consideration. Obviously, the Cowboys have nothing to gain in this contest after clinching the top seed in the NFC. Regardless, offensively the Cowboys remain potent, with the balance to give the Lions fits and the ability to make big plays in the passing game against a secondary expected to be without Darius Slay.
In addition, the Cowboys' pass defense remains susceptible to the passing game. The Lions actually moved the ball well enough last week against the Giants, but turnovers kept them from putting points on the board. Look for an entertaining Monday Night Football finale with enough points to go over the total.
Play: over
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 26, Detroit 20
The pick: Detroit and the over
