The ultimate guide to betting UFC 207

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[h=1]The ultimate guide to betting UFC 207[/h]Reed Kuhn
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

The traditional year-end show for the UFC features a stacked card in Las Vegas, and UFC 207 is a rare Friday night show, due to New Year's Eve falling on a Saturday. There should be no trouble filling seats with Vegas revelers -- travelers and locals alike -- thanks to a doubleheader of bantamweight title fights (including the return of Ronda Rousey) to anchor the card. But Rousey will be entering this weekend's event under strange circumstances.
She'll be making the walk to the cage first for the first time in her UFC career, as the challenger and not the champion. She'll also do so as the mildest betting favorite that she's been in her entire career. Markets have seen steady betting action on her underdog opponent since odds were first released, with incumbent champion Amanda Nunes trending towards pick 'em odds at this late stage. Rousey, formerly the undisputed baddest woman on the planet, is no longer the assumed monster favorite to destroy anyone within arm's reach.
In fact, betting lines are unusually close across the board, with only two or three matchups likely to close with more than 2-to-1 odds. But before we consider the betting angles on the night's final three matchups -- all at 135 pounds -- here is how these competitors stack up in terms of overall fighting effectiveness <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>. Individual striking metrics can be seen in our first UFC 207 preview of the week.
ive current and former UFC Champions will compete on this rare Friday night pay-per-view event, and that's true even after the loss of Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum from the card. As we see from the graph, while there are some clear differences between offense and defense among the fighters on the card, the elite are typically on the favorable side of these metrics. Let's examine the final three fights more closely, with respect to betting lines and totals.

[h=3]Bantamweight: #1 TJ Dillashaw (-240) vs. #2 John Lineker (+200)[/h]
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This matchup could go down as a standup duel, and one that should see both fighters staying busy. Dillashaw and Lineker each typically outwork opponents by being aggressive and initiating exchanges, combining for over 30 strike attempts per minute between them. But the way they strike is very different. Dillashaw transformed his striking under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig, displaying better accuracy, diversity of strikes, and improved defense than in his earlier Octagon appearances; Dillashaw also has a solid wrestling base, which given the stylistic matchup, could come into play.
Lineker typically doesn't use wrestling at all, instead swinging for the fences with highly aggressive power striking. Though his defense is sloppy, it hasn't seemed to matter, as he has not yet been dropped while having scored 10 knockdowns of his own at a very high rate for his division. Lineker wants a brawl here, but Dillashaw is unlikely to take the bait.
Insider Recommends: We agree with Dillashaw as a justified favorite, and think he can stay out of trouble while landing more strikes over time. As we saw in the first graph above, he lands high volume without taking much damage. If he wants to take the fight to the ground, he could even execute a less risky gameplan that would nullify Lineker's best weapons. Dillashaw to win is parlay material at more than -200, but the total depends highly on how much Dillashaw is willing to stand at a distance and trade strikes. We lean towards the "over 2.5 rounds", but not enough to pay nearly two-to-one for it. There's finishing potential by strikes on both sides of the cage, and also submissions.

[h=3]UFC bantamweight championship: Dominic Cruz (c) (-215) vs #5 Cody Garbrandt (+180)[/h]
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As with the prior Bantamweight matchup, the two men fighting for the title are even more extreme in their metrics. Garbrandt is the division's most dangerous power striker, while Cruz is the most elusive and hardest to hit. The standup matchup here boils down to a big "if." If Garbrandt can tag Cruz, things will get interesting. But Cruz has stood with hard hitters before, and his unorthodox style of constant movement has stymied the division's best, so expect to see more of the same.
Garbrandt benefits from having more tape than ever to watch on Cruz, but does he have the experience to learn while he's inside the Octagon, adjust for timing, and find a way to catch Cruz? And that's assuming Cruz even opts to allow Garbrandt to trade leather. Cruz's base is still wrestling, and he has been dominant on the mats through his UFC run. It's very likely that we'll see Garbrandt having to face Cruz's first takedown attempts, and if he can't stop them repeatedly, it could be a long night for him.
Insider Recommends: Garbrandt holds a lottery ticket inside his four ounce gloves, but if anyone has the experience, elusiveness, and fight IQ to deal with it, it's Cruz. Cruz isn't typically an early finishing threat, and he'll respect the threat of power, so expect him utilize a long-term gameplan that includes changing levels. Cruz is safe parlay material even at more than two-to-one odds, as is the "over 2.5 rounds" at a similar price. Five rounds is a long time to survive if Cruz does get ground control, and a submission finish is on the table at some point, so we'll avoid the "Cruz by decision" prop and stick with Cruz to win and the over.

[h=3]UFC women's bantamweight championship: Amanda Nunes (c) (+120) vs #1 Ronda Rousey (-140)[/h]
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When Ronda Rousey was proven to be mortal, we recommended a hedge on Holly Holm by TKO at +1450. Rousey's standup strike defense was nearly non-existent prior to the Holm fight, and once Holm proved she could force the fight to stay standing, it was only a matter of time before Rousey took more damage than she could withstand. Among the many mysteries heading into this guarded return of the former champion is whether or not Rousey has closed this hole in her fight game.
That's because current champion Amanda Nunes has made short work of opponents who lacked technical defense. Nunes's striking metrics were the standout of our prior look at the best strikers on the card, and should the two stand and trade, it will not result in the comeback story Rousey is looking for. However, while Nunes holds a BJJ black belt, it doesn't mean she is safe on the ground with Rousey, should the fight go there. Rousey's submission instincts are absolutely best-in-class, as she can lock up opponent limbs effortlessly, with only the slightest of openings. Nunes should not take the risk of testing Rousey on the mat, as even BJJ black belts gets forced to tap (or worse) in the Octagon.
All in all, this is a very compelling main event. If Rousey wins, she will add a comeback under challenging circumstances to her list of achievements, and give the new UFC owners another lucrative champion to promote. But if Nunes can hand Rousey a second defeat, the implications are powerful -- reminding us once again that no one is invincible in such a rapidly evolving game.


Insider Recommends: We liked Nunes at early prices of well over +200, especially the "inside the distance" plays. But the market has supported Nunes in lopsided fashion in the months since. Given that we could see this going either way in violent fashion, a pick 'em projection leaves very little value in the current line. But given the elevated finishing potential, taking the underdog inside the distance is still a decent angle with good chances of success, returning +140 for Nunes ITD. An alternative angle is to use the virtually assured eventual finish as parlay fodder; for example, "fight does not start Round 3" at -345. However, the "under 1.5 rounds" is too tight a limit if Nunes wants to hang back and pick her shots, which she would be wise to do.

Closing Lines:
Elsewhere on the card, we like Neil Magny at a pick 'em price against Johny Hendricks. Magny isn't flashy, but with a one-foot reach advantage and well executed pressure striking, he should simply out-range Hendricks while standing. The risk is in wrestling, where Hendricks does have a demonstrable advantage. But we're banking on Magny to stay off his back for at two out of three rounds. We also see this going the distance, so use the "over 2.5 rounds" in this fight for more parlay fodder to pair with some of the favorites above.
In money-line odds presented in this column, favorites are negative values -- e.g., a money line of -300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values -- e.g., a money line of +250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
 

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