How to bet the CFB Playoff semis

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How to bet the CFB Playoff semis

CFB Vegas Experts
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We've already advised you on how to bet every single college football bowl game on Chalk. Now your favorite experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris Fallica and Rufus Peabody -- are back with their best bets for the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Dec. 31

College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

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No. 4 Washington Huskies vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14)
3 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Total: 54
PickCenter consensus: 63 percent picked Alabama
Phil Steele: Besides Kansas State's Bill Snyder, there may not be a better underdog coach in the country than Washington's Chris Petersen. He pulled off two outright upsets in bowls going back to his days at Boise State. There's been plenty suggesting that Alabama could be the best college football team ever, but I disagree. The Crimson Tide do have the best defense in the country, but Jalen Hurts is just a freshman and has shown inconsistency at quarterback. The Huskies rate No. 9 in my pass-efficiency defense rankings and will create some puzzling looks for the youngster.


Alabama has had a lot of time during the break to hear how great it is, while the Washington players have been hearing they don't have a chance. I'm not picking the Huskies to pull off the outright upset, but I will call for them to keep it closer than the Vegas experts think.

ATS pick: Washington

Score: Alabama 30, Washington 21

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: As much as everyone says that Washington got dominated by USC when they played earlier this year, I think it was more about the Huskies playing poorly. There isn't a team that is worse to bet against in college football than Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, but we're going to do it here. I think the Washington pass defense is good enough to make Alabama one-dimensional, and the Huskies have the talent on offense to keep the Tide defense a little hesitant and uncomfortable. Alabama has trailed only twice this season -- against Ole Miss and Texas A&M -- and in those two games, the Tide yielded as many completions of at least 25 yards downfield as they did in their other 11 games combined.
Washington QB Jake Browning has been superb throwing the deep ball. He ranks second in the Power 5 in completion percentage and TD passes on throws of at least 25 yards downfield. I'll take the Huskies to shock the world.

ATS pick: Washington

Score: Washington 31, Alabama 28

Rufus Peabody: No matter which way you slice it, Alabama (Massey-Peabody ranking: No. 1) is a historically great football team. The Crimson Tide's defense is the best in the last 10 years, and Massey-Peabody rates them as the second-best team overall in that same span. They went undefeated against the third-toughest schedule in all of college football and never trailed in the fourth quarter. Yet, as is often the case with elite teams, they generate so much hype that lines become inflated, creating value fading them. This is one such case.

Washington (M-P No. 4) is a balanced team, ranking in the top 10 on both offense (M-P No. 6) and defense (M-P No. 5). The Huskies are the most complete team Alabama has faced. Alabama has played three top-10 defenses (LSU, Auburn and Florida) and one top-10 offense (Tennessee), but no team that has been elite on both sides of the ball. Washington led the NCAA in turnover margin, which would normally scream "overrated!" but Alabama led the NCAA in defensive and special teams touchdowns, averaging more than one per game.

Of course, Alabama is likely (76.2 percent) to win the game, but a spread of two touchdowns -- even when giving Alabama a little boost due to the Georgia Dome's proximity to Tuscaloosa -- is simply too high. Florida was a 24-point underdog to Alabama in the SEC title game, and Washington rates a full two touchdowns better than Florida (I know that Alabama covered handily, but Washington did the same against Colorado). I jumped all over Washington +16.5 earlier, but there is still value at +14.

Massey-Peabody Line: Alabama -10.0

ATS pick: Washington

Will Harris: The product that LSU put on the field in Week 10 demands respect, but Washington is still the best team Alabama has faced this year by a solid margin. The Huskies are a complete team, though if there is a weakness, it's the offensive line. That's a bad matchup for Washington, and it means that running the ball with success and putting together lengthy drives is unlikely. The underdog formula to have a shot at beating Bama in the face of that reality is to hang in there on defense, win or break even in turnovers and special teams, and manufacture some offense with big plays.


Washington would seem to be equipped for all of that, as the Huskies defense is fast, tough and takes the ball away; the special teams are a program strength; and the offense protects the ball and frequently hits big plays in the passing game. When Washington's passing game stalled against Colorado in the Pac-12 title game, the running game came to the rescue and dominated in a 41-10 win. Much has since been made of Washington's offensive balance, but the multiplicity that can keep the Huskies in the game with the Tide is not traditional run-pass balance, but the diversity of weapons within the passing game. The top four receivers average 17.2 yards per catch, with the dangerous John Ross the low man in the group at 14.8. Alabama ranks 67th and 55th nationally in pass plays of more than 20 and more than 30 yards allowed; Washington's offense is 38th and 9th.

The Tide probably can't cover all of those guys all day, even if Browning is under duress most of the time, which he surely will be. And the Huskies can play enough defense and manufacture enough points to threaten Alabama even if running the ball is a fantasy. Browning is better than he showed the last few games and well-prepared for this one. We love Washington's offensive brain trust and generally don't believe that laying Chris Petersen points has much place in a winning plan. We also love the Huskies' mindset toward this game and don't credit Alabama's edge in venue and having been on this stage before nearly as much as we did when the pairing was first announced. We lean toward the overall narrative where Alabama escapes Washington then handles Clemson more handily in the final.

ATS pick: Washington


College Football Playoff semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

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No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-3) vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
7 p.m., ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

Total: 59
PickCenter consensus: 61 percent picked Clemson
Chris Fallica: Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has been an underdog in a bowl game five times. The Tigers have won four outright, and the lone time they didn't win, they led in the fourth quarter against Alabama and covered in last year's championship game.

Ohio State has had trouble protecting J.T. Barrett against teams that can get after the passer. The Buckeyes have faced two teams that rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks -- Michigan and Penn State -- and they combined to sack Barrett 14 times. Clemson is second nationally in sacks, trailing only Florida State.

However, Clemson has its own problems when it comes to turnovers. The Tigers have turned it over 24 times this year, including five times versus Louisville, four times versus NC State and three times in the loss to Pitt. In the last three games, Clemson committed just one turnover in each game. Ohio State is in the top 10 nationally in turnovers forced and have forced multiple turnovers in each of the last four games.

I just keep coming back to how "off" the Ohio State passing game appears to be. In the last two games, Barrett is 25-of-54 for 210 yards, which is under 4 yards per attempt. On the season, Barrett is 29th among Power 5 QBs in QBR -- behind LSU's Danny Etling and Auburn's Sean White. Ohio State has 13 20-yard completions since Oct. 22, which ranks 55th among 65 Power 5 teams in that span.

Will there be a chip on Clemson's shoulder following the Heisman ceremony, as the Tigers likely feel Deshaun Watson should have won? If Clemson can avoid turnovers, the Tigers should punch their ticket once again to the title game for a potential rematch with Alabama.

ATS pick: Clemson

Score: Clemson 37, Ohio State 28

Rufus Peabody: The perception here is that Ohio State (M-P No. 3) is clearly the superior team, but the Massey-Peabody ratings think the committee actually got it right in seeding Clemson (M-P No. 2) ahead of Ohio State. For all intents and purposes, though, this game is a coin toss. Clemson has the advantage on offense (boasting Massey-Peabody's top-ranked offense), but Ohio State also has a top-10 unit. They excel in different areas: While both teams are moderately balanced, Clemson is better throwing the ball, and Ohio State is much better rushing. Clemson was more attractive at +3.5 (early bird gets the worm), but they are still worthy of a (smaller) play at +3.

Massey-Peabody Line: Clemson -0.7

ATS pick: Clemson

Will Harris: Clemson is a side that's grown on us lately, and there are a few edges that we keep coming back to:
-- Both programs have been there before, but man-for-man Clemson is just more seasoned. The Tigers also started the year on a playoff mission, whereas the Buckeyes started the year trying to forge an identity and ended a drama-filled thrill ride of a season with an epically tense, draining victory over the best team its hated rival has fielded in a decade. Older players have a larger tank than younger ones, and they're more skilled at refilling it. The Tigers might be a bit fresher, and just getting to this point has certainly had a lot more value to Ohio State's young team than to Clemson's.


-- Clemson looks to us to have been more consistent and attentive to detail over the course of its preparation for this game, which supports the above take on some of the intangibles.

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</article>-- Clemson's offense has more answers. J.T. Barrett and Mike Weber can run the rock, but Ohio State's offensive line versus Clemson's defensive front is a bad matchup for the Buckeyes, and scoring will require big plays, not merely pounding from Weber along with assorted scrambles, leads and draws from Barrett. The solution thus far has been Curtis Samuel, but he's just one man, and if Clemson can give him enough attention to take him away, Ohio State could have a very hard time getting into the end zone. The Tigers' offense has a much deeper group of receiving threats and just generally a more evolved, diverse and effective passing game, while Ohio State has been uncomfortably reliant on Samuel.

ATS pick: Clemson
 

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