Ranking the clearest paths to the Super Bowl

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[h=1]Ranking the clearest paths to the Super Bowl[/h]John Clayton
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

The playoff picture is a little clearer in the NFC than it is in the AFC.

Dome-field advantage rules in the NFC, where Dallas and Atlanta have the top two seeds. Both teams have great ground attacks, a somewhat rare luxury in the modern NFL and something missing from the other four NFC playoff squads, giving them great chances to make Super Bowl runs. They can beat you in multiple ways.
Things are crazier in the AFC, where the three lowest seeds have quarterback issues, and that might be putting it lightly. Injuries in Miami and Oakland and both health and performance issues in Houston cloud things. Meanwhile, the three highest seeds -- New England, Kansas City and Pittsburgh -- play in outdoor stadiums where weather can be a factor.
It sure seems the Patriots and Cowboys could meet in Super Bowl LI, but let's take a look at all 12 teams' paths to Houston, grading from easiest to the hardest:
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[h=2]1. New England Patriots[/h]This is the sixth time since 2003 the Patriots have had the No. 1 seed in the AFC, yet I'm thinking this could be their easiest path to the Super Bowl since Bill Belichick took over as head coach. Outside of Pittsburgh, which AFC team can go into Foxborough and beat Tom Brady and the Patriots? Three of the six AFC teams have backups or inexperienced players at quarterback -- including Houston and Oakland, one of which New England probably will open with in the divisional round. Kansas City can cause problems for the New England offense, but can Alex Smith deliver enough offense to get into a scoring duel with Brady? Of course, upsets can happen, but if we're lining up the easiest path, it's hard to find much debate here. Odds favor the Patriots to take their seventh trip to the Super Bowl under Belichick and Brady.
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[h=2]2. Dallas Cowboys[/h]No rookie quarterback has taken a franchise to the Super Bowl; Dak Prescott could be the first. He's paired up with fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, the league's leading rusher (1,631 yards) and the best bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year. It's all set up for the Cowboys to win if they can hold serve at home, behind a dominant offensive line and just enough defense. The key to the two home playoff games will be winning the possession battle, something that can be scoffed at but actually matters here. Getting 32 to 33 minutes of offensive possession time is key for the Cowboys. That would keep the Dallas defense off the field and allow the Cowboys to go into fourth quarters with the lead and a chance to wear out the opponent's defense. The path could vary, but Dallas would get to the Super Bowl without leaving the state.
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[h=2]3. Atlanta Falcons[/h]Offense gives the Falcons the edge over the Chiefs here. Matt Ryan is having an MVP season, and the playcalling of Kyle Shanahan has been remarkable. Plus, the Falcons don't have to worry about weather. They'll likely have to beat the Seahawks in the divisional round to advance to the NFC Championship Game in Dallas. Both games would be in domes, so there would be no weather condition that could interfere with Shanahan's playcalling. The problem will be getting past the Seahawks, a team that beat the Falcons in a close game earlier this season in Seattle. That said, I'd give the Falcons the edge in that one, as they felt they should have won in Seattle in a game where the Seahawks had Earl Thomas.


[h=2]4. Kansas City Chiefs[/h]By securing the No. 2 seed in the AFC, the Chiefs have all the elements of a team that could make it to the conference championship. They have Andy Reid as their coach -- he has a remarkable record with an extra week to prepare -- weather working in their favor and great fans to pair with a solid home-field advantage. Plus, Reid has this team playing to the cold weather conditions: They try to run the ball out of two- and three-tight-end sets, and they have a playmaker in Tyreek Hill who can turn a short throw (or carry) into a huge gain. Quarterback Smith is a great game manager, and the defense can create turnovers. The tough part would be going to New England and pulling out a victory with this group. But the Chiefs have playmakers on both sides of the ball to create problems.
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[h=2]5. Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]The Steelers' first break is they won't have to face Ryan Tannehill, who put 30 points on them in a 15-point Dolphins victory earlier this season in Miami. Their next task would be going to Kansas City and trying to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, but the Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 in early October. And thanks to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers' offense, the team has the ability to score 30 points on pretty much anyone. The defense bends but doesn't allow a lot of points. I still believe the Steelers are the team that has the best shot to go to New England and get a win, but they slide one spot behind K.C. because they don't have a bye. The Steelers could have made it to the Super Bowl last year but lost Antonio Brown and their entire backfield to injuries.
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[h=2]6. Seattle Seahawks[/h]Although the Seahawks finished the season showing more vulnerabilities than in any of their past 10-win seasons, they have the talent and playoff experience to make it back. The defense does a good job of stopping the run, and the pass rush can be very good. Those factors would give Seattle a decent chance against Atlanta and Dallas on the road. Russell Wilson usually puts the offense in position to come back, if necessary, in fourth quarters. It would have helped getting the No. 2 seed and the possibility of needing only one road game to get to the Super Bowl. But the Seahawks should have a great chance to win Saturday against Detroit. And if they can do better on the road with their offense and the lack of a running game in a potential divisional-round matchup with the Falcons in Atlanta, then it's possible.
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[h=2]7. Green Bay Packers[/h]Aaron Rodgers is on fire. The Packers have won six in a row since Rodgers said they could "run the table" -- a streak that has put him back in MVP consideration. Coach Mike McCarthy knows a hot Rodgers can be the ticket to a Super Bowl run. First, the Packers have to beat the New York Giants. Then the next stop could be Dallas, assuming Seattle beats Detroit. And who knows after that? Rodgers is just an incredible equalizer when he's this hot. Time for discount double check.

[h=2]8. New York Giants[/h]General manager Jerry Reese deserves Executive of the Year honors. He spent more than $200 million in free agency on defense and shaved 9.9 points off a unit that gave up 27.6 points a game in 2015. That allowed first-year head coach Ben McAdoo a chance to go 11-5 and make the playoffs. But here's the tough part: The Giants would have to win three games on the road to reach the Super Bowl. Eli Manning has done that twice, but it's Eli's offense that doesn't seem good enough to pull that off this year; they're averaging only 19.4 points a game, seventh lowest in the NFL. That said, if they can get a win at Lambeau, then all bets are off.
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[h=2]9. Detroit Lions[/h]Since midseason, the Lions appeared to have the best chance to win the NFC North. But the middle-finger injury Matthew Stafford suffered changed the equation and totally lowered expectations. Since then, Stafford is completing only 60.2 percent of his passes, a mark 7 percent lower than before. His off throws restrict the team's ability to make those fourth-quarter comebacks Stafford and the Lions were synonymous with, having mounted eight fourth-quarter comeback wins previously. Going into Seattle on Saturday with those things working against him make it tough. If there's a reason for hope, it's that this Seattle defense isn't as dominant as it has been.
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[h=2]10. Houston Texans[/h]A month ago, hosting the Raiders didn't even seem possible, but given Oakland's current QB quagmire, it's not so bad. A win would advance the Texans to the next round, but they'd have little chance of winning after that, particularly in New England -- their most-likely divisional-round opponent, assuming the Steelers beat the Dolphins. The Texans have to see whether their starting quarterback will be Tom Savage, who suffered a concussion Sunday, or Brock Osweiler. In either case, it would be something extraordinary if they could go on a multiwin run.
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[h=2]11. Oakland Raiders[/h]The Raiders were on track to be the AFC's No. 2 seed with Derek Carr at quarterback. Now they're a No. 5 seed, heading to Houston without knowing their quarterback situation. They'll have to decide whether Matt McGloin, who suffered a shoulder injury Sunday, can play, or if Connor Cook will have to make the start. Ouch. From coach Jack Del Rio's standpoint, at least he has a chance to come away with a playoff win to help his young squad. Still, there isn't much hope beyond Saturday, where the most likely scenario following a win over Houston would be facing New England in the divisional round with either McGloin or the rookie.
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[h=2]12. Miami Dolphins[/h]The Dolphins could've had a chance on the road in Pittsburgh had Tannehill been healthy. Now if they have any hope, they'll have to outscore the Steelers with backup quarterback Matt Moore. That's what makes Miami's path the foggiest. The Dolphins also aren't any good stopping the run, and the Steelers will likely have a big day planned for Le'Veon Bell. Adam Gase has had a tremendous season, but suffice to say, it will take a hard-to-fathom effort from Moore and a banged-up defense for the Dolphins to make a run.
 

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