It's very early in the NFL coaching search process. Interviews are just beginning and many of the hottest candidates cannot talk to other teams until next week. For some teams, the hire won't be made until possibly after the Super Bowl, depending on which teams advance deep into the playoffs.
But I will not let that stop me from connecting a few dots, gathering feelers from executives, coaches and agents involved in this process and taking a look at the landscape in the wake of Black Sunday. By the weekend, when "it" coordinators like Josh McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan start making the rounds, perhaps things start to shift. And this process definitely can change as candidates rise and fall based on interviews, merits of their potential coaching staffs and their ability to share a vision with owners, team presidents, and, in some cases, general managers.
Furthermore, things could also go a different direction should another team or two enter the fray for a coach or general manager (Houston, Indy?) in the coming days or weeks. And in this league the only real surprise would be if there were no big surprises this January. As it stands right now there are six coaching vacancies and one general manager vacancy. Here is a preliminary look at how this might shake down:
[h=3]
Buffalo Bills [/h] This has been Anthony Lynn's job for quite some time. He was named the interim coach and Rex Ryan was fired in-season with those moves in mind. All along. Since like November.
Of course, there is now more in-fighting in Buffalo -- go figure! -- with some discontent among coaches about the prospect of Tyrod Taylor not being brought back as quarterback. What looked like a seamless transition has gotten a little rocky. In the end, I still expect to see Lynn named coach within a week, and with Gus Bradley a strong candidate to be his defensive coordinator.
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<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Anthony Lynn looks like a lock in Buffalo. USATSI </figcaption></figure> This is not an attractive job, each press conference gives people around the league more pause, and if the Bills manage to botch it with Lynn, good luck finding more qualified guys to take it. GM Doug Whaley has done himself no favors with how all of this has gone down. He's hiring a third coach in five years and has all kinds of issues on the personnel/contract side. And it doesn't seem like owner Terry Pegula has figured out what it takes to build a winning franchise yet, either.
[h=3]
Denver Broncos[/h] John Elway wants to go with a young, up-and-coming coach and he has two on his radar. I have a hard time seeing anyone other than rising Miami defensive coordinator Vance Joseph being the first choice. He will meet with several teams and may have been hired to replace John Fox a few years back had Elway not been able to convince Gary Kubiak to take the job. Joseph did some masterful work in Miami as the Dolphins made their playoff push and has dealt with big-time stars and egos on that side of the ball. He could manage this group.
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<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Vance Joseph has John Elway's eye in Denver. USATSI </figcaption></figure> Kyle Shanahan is a natural candidate as well, and the Falcons offensive coordinator is going to get a job somewhere, but I'm just not sure this is the fit. It's hard enough breaking free of being Mike Shanahan's son and being a head coach for the first time, but to do so in the city where your father did his best work and won two Super Bowls is even more difficult. To replace Kubiak, who played for and coached for your dad in Denver, is an added pressure. And to work for Elway, who was the quarterback for your dad on those back-to-back Super Bowl winners adds another layer of drama, pressure and expectation that might not be worth it in some ways. It's a dream job in many ways, but man, as a young coach in his first time out I'd be inclined to go elsewhere, all things being equal. That's just me. If someone other than these two dudes gets the gig, I'd be fairly shocked. Both are plenty qualified and ready to go. The Broncos will also interview Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub, who I've championed in the past and who is ready for a top NFL job.
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[h=3]
Jacksonville Jaguars [/h] As much as the Jags don't want to be beholden to any particular profile, and will look at a wide swath of coaches, I have a hard time thinking this won't be an offensive-minded guy. And as much as the team's brass talks about being willing to move on from Blake Bortles and staying open minded, I'm not sure people are buying it.
The franchise took Bortles third overall in 2014, and he took massive steps backward in 2016. They want this to work and finding a guy who they believe can make it work will be paramount. The GM who drafted Bortles is still on staff leading the search. Kyle Shanahan is going to check every box when they talk to him this weekend. So will Josh McDaniels.
<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Kyle Shanahan has the offensive know-how that the Jags desire. USATSI </figcaption></figure> I know the headhunter involved in the search, Jed Hughes, is a big Shanahan guy. He'd mesh well with the heavy analytics bent in the building. Don't discount interim coach Doug Marrone if Shanahan and McDaniels and the other hottest candidates go elsewhere. As for Tom Coughlin, coming back at age 70 is less than ideal for a rebuilding team and if that was a slam dunk or anything close to it, it probably already would have happened. As much as he yearns to coach, Coughlin may be best cast as a football czar type at this stage.
[h=3]
Los Angeles Rams[/h] No team seems to be casting a wider net than the Rams, with candidates of all shapes and sizes -- position coaches, offensive guys, defensive guys. I get all of that. But I still have a hard time thinking they do not make a move that will get the attention of fickle Southern California fans. There has been mutual interest between them and Sean Payton, despite Payton publicly saying otherwise, and until they hire someone else you won't convince me there isn't a chance a trade is brokered.
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<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Don't rule out Sean Payton winding up in L.A. USATSI </figcaption></figure> Neither side is opposed to it, including the Saints, and things can move in mysterious ways in this league. McDaniels and Shanahan make a ton of sense, too, with this team needing Jared Goff, the 2016 first-overall pick, to not look like a bust next year. It's hard for me to think they don't entrust that to someone who has done the job before, though I could also see them going outside the box and falling in love with Washington's 30-year old offensive coordinator, Sean McVay. They need to have a killer staff on the offensive side of the ball, and that can be hard to get unless the head guy is already a QB guru type himself. They have enough talent on defense to be competitive on that side of the ball.
[h=3]
San Diego Chargers [/h] The Chargers have thought internally about perhaps making a splash here and going into the deep end for a top coach, perhaps even via trade. It's out of character for them and would be a stretch, and in the end they might not be willing to do it ... but with a move to Los Angeles imminent they need to at least think big.
Ultimately, their initial list of candidates is more in line with how they have traditionally handled coaching hires -- rising coordinators who won't bring huge salaries and demands with them. The Chargers believe in a model where the coach more or less reports to the GM, so the coach must be malleable. I'm most intrigued by their interview with Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub, who is one of Andy Reid's most trusted assistants. Again, I've championed his resume and chops in the past and he is ready for the job. The Chargers would also be stripping one of their rivals, the AFC West champions, of one of their best coaches. Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin will also interview with the Chargers.
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<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Dave Toub is loved by his players and respected by his peers. USATSI </figcaption></figure>
[h=3]
San Francisco 49ers [/h] Jed York has been a big fan of Josh McDaniels for quite some time. And, having seen his franchise crumble amid dysfunction and infighting, he'd love nothing more than to dip into some of that New England "culture," to use his favorite new word, and pair McDaniels with Nick Caserio, the Pats' director of personnel. That would be his dream. He'd have instant continuity and it would be chaos free. It remains to be seen if he can lure one of them, much less both.
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<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Can the Yorks lure Josh McDaniels to San Francisco? USATSI </figcaption></figure> Top coaches have natural trepidation about the Yorks given their horrid track record with coaches since the ugly divorce with Jim Harbaugh. The Yorks are going to have to do a great sales job. The fact they finally parted with long-time GM Trent Baalke helps, and the franchise essentially being a blank slate should aid recruiting. Many rival execs believe Caserio does what he has long done, and stays put in New England. But McDaniels is definitely open to listening to the Niners and the other two teams he's scheduled to meet: the Rams and Jaguars. Expect the 49ers to court McDaniels and see what other GMs could be the right mix if not Caserio. Maybe Eliot Wolf of the Packers?
But I will not let that stop me from connecting a few dots, gathering feelers from executives, coaches and agents involved in this process and taking a look at the landscape in the wake of Black Sunday. By the weekend, when "it" coordinators like Josh McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan start making the rounds, perhaps things start to shift. And this process definitely can change as candidates rise and fall based on interviews, merits of their potential coaching staffs and their ability to share a vision with owners, team presidents, and, in some cases, general managers.
Furthermore, things could also go a different direction should another team or two enter the fray for a coach or general manager (Houston, Indy?) in the coming days or weeks. And in this league the only real surprise would be if there were no big surprises this January. As it stands right now there are six coaching vacancies and one general manager vacancy. Here is a preliminary look at how this might shake down:
[h=3]
Of course, there is now more in-fighting in Buffalo -- go figure! -- with some discontent among coaches about the prospect of Tyrod Taylor not being brought back as quarterback. What looked like a seamless transition has gotten a little rocky. In the end, I still expect to see Lynn named coach within a week, and with Gus Bradley a strong candidate to be his defensive coordinator.
<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Anthony Lynn looks like a lock in Buffalo. USATSI </figcaption></figure> This is not an attractive job, each press conference gives people around the league more pause, and if the Bills manage to botch it with Lynn, good luck finding more qualified guys to take it. GM Doug Whaley has done himself no favors with how all of this has gone down. He's hiring a third coach in five years and has all kinds of issues on the personnel/contract side. And it doesn't seem like owner Terry Pegula has figured out what it takes to build a winning franchise yet, either.
[h=3]
<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Vance Joseph has John Elway's eye in Denver. USATSI </figcaption></figure> Kyle Shanahan is a natural candidate as well, and the Falcons offensive coordinator is going to get a job somewhere, but I'm just not sure this is the fit. It's hard enough breaking free of being Mike Shanahan's son and being a head coach for the first time, but to do so in the city where your father did his best work and won two Super Bowls is even more difficult. To replace Kubiak, who played for and coached for your dad in Denver, is an added pressure. And to work for Elway, who was the quarterback for your dad on those back-to-back Super Bowl winners adds another layer of drama, pressure and expectation that might not be worth it in some ways. It's a dream job in many ways, but man, as a young coach in his first time out I'd be inclined to go elsewhere, all things being equal. That's just me. If someone other than these two dudes gets the gig, I'd be fairly shocked. Both are plenty qualified and ready to go. The Broncos will also interview Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub, who I've championed in the past and who is ready for a top NFL job.
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[h=3]
The franchise took Bortles third overall in 2014, and he took massive steps backward in 2016. They want this to work and finding a guy who they believe can make it work will be paramount. The GM who drafted Bortles is still on staff leading the search. Kyle Shanahan is going to check every box when they talk to him this weekend. So will Josh McDaniels.
<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Kyle Shanahan has the offensive know-how that the Jags desire. USATSI </figcaption></figure> I know the headhunter involved in the search, Jed Hughes, is a big Shanahan guy. He'd mesh well with the heavy analytics bent in the building. Don't discount interim coach Doug Marrone if Shanahan and McDaniels and the other hottest candidates go elsewhere. As for Tom Coughlin, coming back at age 70 is less than ideal for a rebuilding team and if that was a slam dunk or anything close to it, it probably already would have happened. As much as he yearns to coach, Coughlin may be best cast as a football czar type at this stage.
[h=3]
<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Don't rule out Sean Payton winding up in L.A. USATSI </figcaption></figure> Neither side is opposed to it, including the Saints, and things can move in mysterious ways in this league. McDaniels and Shanahan make a ton of sense, too, with this team needing Jared Goff, the 2016 first-overall pick, to not look like a bust next year. It's hard for me to think they don't entrust that to someone who has done the job before, though I could also see them going outside the box and falling in love with Washington's 30-year old offensive coordinator, Sean McVay. They need to have a killer staff on the offensive side of the ball, and that can be hard to get unless the head guy is already a QB guru type himself. They have enough talent on defense to be competitive on that side of the ball.
[h=3]
Ultimately, their initial list of candidates is more in line with how they have traditionally handled coaching hires -- rising coordinators who won't bring huge salaries and demands with them. The Chargers believe in a model where the coach more or less reports to the GM, so the coach must be malleable. I'm most intrigued by their interview with Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub, who is one of Andy Reid's most trusted assistants. Again, I've championed his resume and chops in the past and he is ready for the job. The Chargers would also be stripping one of their rivals, the AFC West champions, of one of their best coaches. Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin will also interview with the Chargers.
<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Dave Toub is loved by his players and respected by his peers. USATSI </figcaption></figure>
[h=3]
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<figure class="image-embed pull-none image-large">
<figcaption class="image-embed-figcaption">Can the Yorks lure Josh McDaniels to San Francisco? USATSI </figcaption></figure> Top coaches have natural trepidation about the Yorks given their horrid track record with coaches since the ugly divorce with Jim Harbaugh. The Yorks are going to have to do a great sales job. The fact they finally parted with long-time GM Trent Baalke helps, and the franchise essentially being a blank slate should aid recruiting. Many rival execs believe Caserio does what he has long done, and stays put in New England. But McDaniels is definitely open to listening to the Niners and the other two teams he's scheduled to meet: the Rams and Jaguars. Expect the 49ers to court McDaniels and see what other GMs could be the right mix if not Caserio. Maybe Eliot Wolf of the Packers?
