[h=1]NFL wild-card contrarian betting system[/h]David SolarSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
As we head into the NFL playoffs, I want to thank our loyal readers for their support this year. Although betting against the public produced mixed results during the 2016 regular season, the postseason has historically created unique opportunities for our contrarian strategies. In fact, we're already off to a hot start, with our college football system matches posting a 10-6-1 record during bowl season.
If you're a frequent reader of this column, you know the team at Sports Insights tends to be oppositional to mainstream convention. We extract value by taking teams others won't and grabbing lines that have been artificially inflated based on public perception. By examining some of the top historical betting trends and identifying sharp money indicators, we inform bettors on how they can capitalize on these market overreactions. Whenever the public zigs, we zag.
Of course, the regular season and postseason are completely different beasts, and bettors can't always employ the same strategies. During the playoffs, the number of tickets placed on every game nearly doubles, with much of the action from square bettors. These recreational weekend warriors place wagers based on instinct and gut feelings rather than data and analysis.
In the past, we have stated that the value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game. Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, with this influx of money from casual bettors during the postseason, sportsbooks are increasingly willing to adjust their lines in order to encourage action on the unpopular side of a game and limit their exposure.
To learn more about how the handle changes between the regular season and playoffs, I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant from Bookmaker.eu.
"It does increase per game, but not as much as you might think," Cooley said. "On average the handle might be up 5-10 percent for a playoff game [compared with] that of a Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football game."
During the regular season, casual bettors overwhelmingly hammer the favorite, and oddsmakers adjust by shading their lines and forcing casual bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. This has historically created value on underdogs. However, that's not necessarily the case during the playoffs.
Since 2003, the underdog has received the majority of spread bets in less than 20 percent of regular-season games. However, underdogs have received the majority of bets in 42.7 percent of all playoff games. That's largely because casual bettors overvalue elite offenses and undervalue stout defenses.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
"The public is always going to play the high-profile, high-octane, sexy teams," according to Cooley. "The old adage is that defense wins championships, and that's true, but the square bettors don't subscribe to that theory when putting their money down."
My research found that elite defenses -- which I defined as any team allowing fewer than 18 points per game -- have gone 56-44 ATS (56 percent) during the NFL playoffs. Despite that winning record, these teams have received the majority of spread tickets in less than 40 percent of their games.
Conversely, teams with potent offenses have historically struggled to cover the spread during the postseason. Since 2003, playoff teams averaging more than 26 points per game have gone just 37-58 ATS (38.9 percent). In spite of that atrocious record, these teams have received the majority of spread tickets in roughly 60 percent of their games. When an elite defense faces off against a potent offense, bettors should go against the grain and back the superior defensive team.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoffs: Defense Beats Offense</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody></aside>As we mentioned earlier, square bettors routinely overreact to recent results and will typically place bets based purely on instinct. These bettors generally pound high-scoring teams, so oddsmakers will shade their lines to account for this inevitable influx of public money. By taking the unpopular side of the game, opportunistic contrarian bettors are often able to get an extra half-point or more.
This trend intensifies during the playoffs, when sportsbooks take an even higher volume of public money. During the regular season, sportsbooks will typically take more than enough sharp action to balance this flood of public money; however, there is far more public money in play during the playoffs. That creates additional opportunity for our contrarian strategies.
Since 2003, underdogs receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 1,367-1,344 ATS (50.4 percent) during the regular season and 44-35 ATS (55.7 percent) during the playoffs. When we look at larger underdogs, that winning percentages increases even further.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoffs: Betting Against The Public</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody></aside>In order to have long-term success in sports betting, it's crucial that bettors avoid forcing plays when the value's not there. There's only one game fitting each of these criteria, and it's my favorite value play during the wild-card round.
[h=3]Wild card system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
New York Giants (+4.5) at Green Bay Packers
In this weekend's most heavily bet game, the Packers opened as 4-point home favorites at the Westgate Superbook. The line dropped from Green Bay -4 to -3.5 shortly after opening, but it had jumped to -4.5 by Tuesday night. These teams previously played in Week 5, with Green Bay (closed -7) beating New York by the final score of 23-16.
In an interesting twist, Green Bay has received the majority of spread tickets (57 percent) in Sunday's game, but New York has received the majority of spread dollars (60 percent). That type of split indicates that several large bets, probably placed by sharp bettors or syndicates, have taken the road underdog.
There's clearly value on the Giants as a large contrarian underdog, but there's also value based on the public's tendency to overvalue offense and undervalue defense. This season, New York boasted the league's second-best scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 points per game. On the other hand, Green Bay's offense ranked fourth in scoring with 27.0 points per game.
We always recommend selling on good news in order to capitalize on market overreactions, and Green Bay has won six consecutive games, including a big road win over Detroit on national television. This is the perfect opportunity to sell high on the Packers.
My research also found that 10-win teams have gone 50-37 ATS (57.5 percent) when they're underdogs during the playoffs. When we look at underdogs of at least 4.5 points, that record improves to 31-14 ATS (68.9 percent). That's another reason to like the Giants plus the points.
Weather is always an important factor to consider when handicapping a game, and forecasts call for single-digit temperatures at Lambeau Field this weekend. Although bettors typically think road teams are adversely affected by inclement weather, that's simply not the case. Since 2003, road teams have actually gone 24-16 ATS (60 percent) in playoff games played at freezing temperatures.
Moreover, Eli Manning has been very successful on the road during his 13-year career. Since being drafted in 2004, Manning has gone 56-41 ATS (57.7 percent) as a visitor, including a 6-0 ATS record during the playoffs. That trails only Tom Brady (57-40 ATS) among active quarterbacks.
There's no questioning Aaron Rodgers' talent, but this New York defense still hasn't received its proper due. Olivier Vernon is a premier pass-rusher, Janoris Jenkins is a lockdown cornerback and Landon Collins has emerged as one of the best safeties in football. Teams who lost their previous head-to-head matchup have gone 75-60 ATS (55.6 percent) during the playoffs, so I like the Giants to bounce back from their Week 5 loss this weekend.
The pick: New York Giants +4.5
Note: These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
ESPN INSIDER
As we head into the NFL playoffs, I want to thank our loyal readers for their support this year. Although betting against the public produced mixed results during the 2016 regular season, the postseason has historically created unique opportunities for our contrarian strategies. In fact, we're already off to a hot start, with our college football system matches posting a 10-6-1 record during bowl season.
If you're a frequent reader of this column, you know the team at Sports Insights tends to be oppositional to mainstream convention. We extract value by taking teams others won't and grabbing lines that have been artificially inflated based on public perception. By examining some of the top historical betting trends and identifying sharp money indicators, we inform bettors on how they can capitalize on these market overreactions. Whenever the public zigs, we zag.
Of course, the regular season and postseason are completely different beasts, and bettors can't always employ the same strategies. During the playoffs, the number of tickets placed on every game nearly doubles, with much of the action from square bettors. These recreational weekend warriors place wagers based on instinct and gut feelings rather than data and analysis.
In the past, we have stated that the value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game. Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, with this influx of money from casual bettors during the postseason, sportsbooks are increasingly willing to adjust their lines in order to encourage action on the unpopular side of a game and limit their exposure.
To learn more about how the handle changes between the regular season and playoffs, I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant from Bookmaker.eu.
"It does increase per game, but not as much as you might think," Cooley said. "On average the handle might be up 5-10 percent for a playoff game [compared with] that of a Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football game."
During the regular season, casual bettors overwhelmingly hammer the favorite, and oddsmakers adjust by shading their lines and forcing casual bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. This has historically created value on underdogs. However, that's not necessarily the case during the playoffs.
Since 2003, the underdog has received the majority of spread bets in less than 20 percent of regular-season games. However, underdogs have received the majority of bets in 42.7 percent of all playoff games. That's largely because casual bettors overvalue elite offenses and undervalue stout defenses.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
"The public is always going to play the high-profile, high-octane, sexy teams," according to Cooley. "The old adage is that defense wins championships, and that's true, but the square bettors don't subscribe to that theory when putting their money down."
My research found that elite defenses -- which I defined as any team allowing fewer than 18 points per game -- have gone 56-44 ATS (56 percent) during the NFL playoffs. Despite that winning record, these teams have received the majority of spread tickets in less than 40 percent of their games.
Conversely, teams with potent offenses have historically struggled to cover the spread during the postseason. Since 2003, playoff teams averaging more than 26 points per game have gone just 37-58 ATS (38.9 percent). In spite of that atrocious record, these teams have received the majority of spread tickets in roughly 60 percent of their games. When an elite defense faces off against a potent offense, bettors should go against the grain and back the superior defensive team.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense Allowing <18 PPG | 56-44 (56.0%) | +9.62 | +9.6% |
| Opponent Averaging >26 PPG | 58-37 (61.1%) | +18.25 | +19.2% |
| Defense Allowing <18 PPG, Opp. Averaging >26 PPG | 24-13 (64.9%) | +9.39 | +26.8% |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoffs: Defense Beats Offense</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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This trend intensifies during the playoffs, when sportsbooks take an even higher volume of public money. During the regular season, sportsbooks will typically take more than enough sharp action to balance this flood of public money; however, there is far more public money in play during the playoffs. That creates additional opportunity for our contrarian strategies.
Since 2003, underdogs receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 1,367-1,344 ATS (50.4 percent) during the regular season and 44-35 ATS (55.7 percent) during the playoffs. When we look at larger underdogs, that winning percentages increases even further.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving <50% of spread bets | 72-67 (51.8%) | +1.59 | +1.1% |
| Underdogs receiving <50% of spread bets | 44-35 (55.7%) | +7.11 | +9.0% |
| Underdogs of 4+ points receiving <50% of spread bets | 32-16 (66.7%) | +13.98 | +29.1% |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoffs: Betting Against The Public</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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[h=3]Wild card system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
New York Giants (+4.5) at Green Bay Packers
In this weekend's most heavily bet game, the Packers opened as 4-point home favorites at the Westgate Superbook. The line dropped from Green Bay -4 to -3.5 shortly after opening, but it had jumped to -4.5 by Tuesday night. These teams previously played in Week 5, with Green Bay (closed -7) beating New York by the final score of 23-16.
In an interesting twist, Green Bay has received the majority of spread tickets (57 percent) in Sunday's game, but New York has received the majority of spread dollars (60 percent). That type of split indicates that several large bets, probably placed by sharp bettors or syndicates, have taken the road underdog.
There's clearly value on the Giants as a large contrarian underdog, but there's also value based on the public's tendency to overvalue offense and undervalue defense. This season, New York boasted the league's second-best scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 points per game. On the other hand, Green Bay's offense ranked fourth in scoring with 27.0 points per game.
We always recommend selling on good news in order to capitalize on market overreactions, and Green Bay has won six consecutive games, including a big road win over Detroit on national television. This is the perfect opportunity to sell high on the Packers.
My research also found that 10-win teams have gone 50-37 ATS (57.5 percent) when they're underdogs during the playoffs. When we look at underdogs of at least 4.5 points, that record improves to 31-14 ATS (68.9 percent). That's another reason to like the Giants plus the points.
Weather is always an important factor to consider when handicapping a game, and forecasts call for single-digit temperatures at Lambeau Field this weekend. Although bettors typically think road teams are adversely affected by inclement weather, that's simply not the case. Since 2003, road teams have actually gone 24-16 ATS (60 percent) in playoff games played at freezing temperatures.
Moreover, Eli Manning has been very successful on the road during his 13-year career. Since being drafted in 2004, Manning has gone 56-41 ATS (57.7 percent) as a visitor, including a 6-0 ATS record during the playoffs. That trails only Tom Brady (57-40 ATS) among active quarterbacks.
There's no questioning Aaron Rodgers' talent, but this New York defense still hasn't received its proper due. Olivier Vernon is a premier pass-rusher, Janoris Jenkins is a lockdown cornerback and Landon Collins has emerged as one of the best safeties in football. Teams who lost their previous head-to-head matchup have gone 75-60 ATS (55.6 percent) during the playoffs, so I like the Giants to bounce back from their Week 5 loss this weekend.
The pick: New York Giants +4.5
Note: These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
