[h=1]NFL divisional round contrarian betting system[/h]David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
At Sports Insights, we love going against the grain and espousing unpopular viewpoints. Our strategies uncover value by challenging public perception and taking advantage of artificially inflated lines. While we have mainly focused on contrarian strategies such as betting against the public, it's also important to be cognizant of historically profitable betting trends.
Bettors are forced to take many factors into consideration before placing a wager, but the importance of weather conditions can't be understated when handicapping games. Inclement weather negatively impacts scoring, which makes the forecast vital information for anybody betting on the total.
Past research has found that both scoring and totals have steadily increased over the past 14 seasons, but that hasn't been the case under certain weather conditions. That point becomes readily apparent when you compare the performance of overs in indoor versus outdoor stadiums.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Using our historical database, I found that the average total at domed stadiums has been roughly 44.5 points, and the average combined points per game have been just over 46. During that same period, the average total at outdoor stadiums was nearly three points less, and the average combined points per game was almost four points less. Not surprisingly, this led to weak returns for anybody taking the under at dome stadiums.
Since 2003, the under has gone 1,370-1,360 (50.2 percent) in regular-season games played at outdoor stadiums. In that period, the under has gone just 379-411 (48 percent) in domed stadiums. That's largely because excessive wind speeds can be a substantial limitation to both the passing game and the kicking game.
It's important to note that not all teams are equally affected by inclement weather conditions. For example, a run-heavy offense such as the Dallas Cowboys won't be affected by high winds as much as pass-heavy teams such as the Green Bay Packers. Nonetheless, weather conditions become an even more important factor during the NFL playoffs.
My research found that since 2003, the under has gone 74-69 (51.7 percent) during the postseason. Although those numbers aren't particularly impressive, the splits tell a dramatically different story.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoff Unders</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot></aside>As you can see, the under has been far more profitable in outdoor stadiums, where inclement weather conditions can affect the ability to score. When we focus on indoor games with no impediment to scoring, the over has been incredibly lucrative. There are eight NFL teams that play in dome stadiums and are thus immune to ill effects from weather conditions, but for the other 24 teams, swirling winds, torrential downpours, freezing rain or other inclement weather conditions can impact scoring.
"In most cases, we're going to tick the total up a notch when teams are playing indoors," Scott Cooley, bookmaker consultant at Bookmaker.eu said. "Fast turf, fast-paced, offensive-minded, great weather for kicking game."
Even with these increased totals, though, there has been value in taking the over in domed stadiums. Oddsmakers might be adjusting their totals, but totals aren't being increased enough.
Bettors place far more value on freezing temperatures, but wind speeds have the greatest impact on scoring. Wind causes teams to run more often, which leads to more running clock, fewer possessions and lower-scoring games. Swift winds greatly impact a team's ability to pass, which gives strong running teams an additional edge.
Past research has also found that the under has provided additional value in games with higher totals, while the over has provided more value in games with lower totals. The logic is simple enough, as bettors have a greater margin of error in these games, but it's a crucial factor for anybody betting NFL playoff unders at outdoor stadiums.
In outdoor playoff games, the under has gone just 41-42 (49.4 percent) when the closing total is 47 or fewer and 24-6 (80 percent) when the closing total is greater than 47. That's also noteworthy because 27-20 is one of the more common final scores.
Casual bettors love rooting for high-scoring games, and they allow their emotions to control their behavior. Even though the playoffs are usually filled with the league's best defenses, this tendency is magnified during the postseason. My research found that a majority of public bettors have taken the over in 86.6 percent of all regular-season games and 90.2 percent of playoff games.
Sportsbooks can easily anticipate public money on the over, and they account for the inevitable influx of public money when setting the opening line. It's also important to realize that at least three times more money is wagered on the spread than the total. For that reason, public money is rarely responsible for moving totals -- even during the playoffs, when the volume increases.
Although the over has been lucrative in playoff games played at domed stadiums, it hasn't been profitable when there's reverse line movement on the under. Reverse line movement is typically an indicator of sharp money, and when we filter out those games, our results improve substantially.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoff Unders</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot></aside>In order to have long-term success in sports betting, it's crucial that bettors avoid forcing plays when the value isn't there. This week, there are two plays offering solid value during the divisional round, plus a bonus play that is dependent on whether the Cowboys opt to open or close their retractable roof.
[h=2]Divisional round system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (Over/under 51.5)
In this weekend's first game, odds-on MVP favorite Matt Ryan and the Falcons will host Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Falcons play their home games at the Georgia Dome, and there's plenty of reason to like the over in this matchup.
After opening at 49 on Sunday morning, the total for Saturday's game quickly climbed to 51.5 at the Westgate Superbook. That's largely due to sharp money, as there was a Pinnacle steam move triggered on the over. Pinnacle is arguably the sharpest offshore sportsbook, and this season, the Pinnacle over/under steam move has gone 30-20 (60 percent) with plus-4.7 units won.
Atlanta (33.8 PPG) led the league in scoring while ranking just 27th in scoring defense (25.4 PPG). This created the perfect storm for bettors, with the Falcons (13-2) finishing the regular season as the most profitable over team. In fact, the over went a perfect 8-0 in Falcons home games.
The Seahawks are widely considered to have one of the league's top defenses, but the absence of Earl Thomas stings more than many bettors might realize. The Falcons looked solid against Detroit, but Matthew Stafford was clearly affected by his finger injury. It's also noteworthy that the over went 9-7 in Seattle's regular-season games. Some of the value is gone after the initial line move, but we're going to follow the sharp money and take the over in Saturday's matchup.
The play: Over 51.5
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Over/under 44.5)
By now, most bettors probably know that the Patriots (-15.5) are the biggest playoff favorites since the Minnesota Vikings closed as 16-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals nearly 20 years ago. They might also know that New England has received an unprecedented level of public support, despite that lofty spread. However, bettors might not realize that the best value in this game comes on the total.
Early forecasts call for swirling winds, freezing temperatures and the possibility of some light snow flurries. With that inclement weather, there's no doubt that we're eyeing the under.
The total for Saturday night's game opened at 45, and although 61 percent of tickets have taken the over, 69 percent of money has taken the under. Money percentages that contradict our ticket percentages indicate that several large wagers (likely placed by sharper bettors) have taken the under. This sharp money on the under has caused the total to drop from 45 to 44.5. Bettors might also be interested to know that although the Patriots are known for their elite offense, they led the league in scoring defense (15.6 PPG) during the regular season. At 10-6, they were actually one of the best under teams this season. Ditto for the Texans, who posted an identical 10-6 under record.
With inclement weather expected, we anticipate that both teams will rely heavily on their talented running backs, LeGarrette Blount and Lamar Miller. That means fewer possessions and less scoring.
The play: Under 44.5
Bonus play: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Over/under 52)
This will be one of the more intriguing plays because AT&T Stadium has a retractable roof, and it's highly probable that the roof will be closed, seeing as forecasts call for light rain. If the Cowboys decide to keep their roof open, this under could have tremendous value.
After opening at 51 on Sunday evening, public money poured in on the over, with 82 percent of tickets and 92 percent of money taking the over. This one-sided public betting caused the total to increase from 51 to 52 at the Westgate Superbook. Sports Insights has not triggered any bet signals on the over, which is a good indicator that sharp money is not responsible for this one-point line move.
Forecasts call for 15 mph winds, which have historically been advantageous for under bettors. Although it's likely the roof will be closed, Dallas would have a strategic advantage in keeping it open, given that passing teams are more adversely affected by strong winds than running teams.
Since 2003, the under has gone 19-13 in playoff games with 10-plus mph winds. It's also worth noting that the under has gone 10-6 in Cowboys games this seasons, as their propensity to run the ball leads to more running clock and fewer possessions. I would recommend waiting until an official announcement is made, but this under has tremendous value if the Cowboys opt to keep the roof open. That said, it will likely not qualify as a play.
The play: Under 52
Note: These lines are subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
At Sports Insights, we love going against the grain and espousing unpopular viewpoints. Our strategies uncover value by challenging public perception and taking advantage of artificially inflated lines. While we have mainly focused on contrarian strategies such as betting against the public, it's also important to be cognizant of historically profitable betting trends.
Bettors are forced to take many factors into consideration before placing a wager, but the importance of weather conditions can't be understated when handicapping games. Inclement weather negatively impacts scoring, which makes the forecast vital information for anybody betting on the total.
Past research has found that both scoring and totals have steadily increased over the past 14 seasons, but that hasn't been the case under certain weather conditions. That point becomes readily apparent when you compare the performance of overs in indoor versus outdoor stadiums.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Using our historical database, I found that the average total at domed stadiums has been roughly 44.5 points, and the average combined points per game have been just over 46. During that same period, the average total at outdoor stadiums was nearly three points less, and the average combined points per game was almost four points less. Not surprisingly, this led to weak returns for anybody taking the under at dome stadiums.
Since 2003, the under has gone 1,370-1,360 (50.2 percent) in regular-season games played at outdoor stadiums. In that period, the under has gone just 379-411 (48 percent) in domed stadiums. That's largely because excessive wind speeds can be a substantial limitation to both the passing game and the kicking game.
It's important to note that not all teams are equally affected by inclement weather conditions. For example, a run-heavy offense such as the Dallas Cowboys won't be affected by high winds as much as pass-heavy teams such as the Green Bay Packers. Nonetheless, weather conditions become an even more important factor during the NFL playoffs.
My research found that since 2003, the under has gone 74-69 (51.7 percent) during the postseason. Although those numbers aren't particularly impressive, the splits tell a dramatically different story.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoors | 65-48 (57.5%) | +13.18 | +11.7% |
| Indoors (dome) | 8-21 (27.6%) | -13.63 | -47.0% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoff Unders</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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"In most cases, we're going to tick the total up a notch when teams are playing indoors," Scott Cooley, bookmaker consultant at Bookmaker.eu said. "Fast turf, fast-paced, offensive-minded, great weather for kicking game."
Even with these increased totals, though, there has been value in taking the over in domed stadiums. Oddsmakers might be adjusting their totals, but totals aren't being increased enough.
Bettors place far more value on freezing temperatures, but wind speeds have the greatest impact on scoring. Wind causes teams to run more often, which leads to more running clock, fewer possessions and lower-scoring games. Swift winds greatly impact a team's ability to pass, which gives strong running teams an additional edge.
Past research has also found that the under has provided additional value in games with higher totals, while the over has provided more value in games with lower totals. The logic is simple enough, as bettors have a greater margin of error in these games, but it's a crucial factor for anybody betting NFL playoff unders at outdoor stadiums.
In outdoor playoff games, the under has gone just 41-42 (49.4 percent) when the closing total is 47 or fewer and 24-6 (80 percent) when the closing total is greater than 47. That's also noteworthy because 27-20 is one of the more common final scores.
Casual bettors love rooting for high-scoring games, and they allow their emotions to control their behavior. Even though the playoffs are usually filled with the league's best defenses, this tendency is magnified during the postseason. My research found that a majority of public bettors have taken the over in 86.6 percent of all regular-season games and 90.2 percent of playoff games.
Sportsbooks can easily anticipate public money on the over, and they account for the inevitable influx of public money when setting the opening line. It's also important to realize that at least three times more money is wagered on the spread than the total. For that reason, public money is rarely responsible for moving totals -- even during the playoffs, when the volume increases.
Although the over has been lucrative in playoff games played at domed stadiums, it hasn't been profitable when there's reverse line movement on the under. Reverse line movement is typically an indicator of sharp money, and when we filter out those games, our results improve substantially.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indoors (dome) | 21-8 (72.4%) | +12.43 | +42.9% |
| Indoors, total doesn't drop | 15-3 (83.3%) | +11.58 | +64.3% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NFL Playoff Unders</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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[h=2]Divisional round system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (Over/under 51.5)
In this weekend's first game, odds-on MVP favorite Matt Ryan and the Falcons will host Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Falcons play their home games at the Georgia Dome, and there's plenty of reason to like the over in this matchup.
After opening at 49 on Sunday morning, the total for Saturday's game quickly climbed to 51.5 at the Westgate Superbook. That's largely due to sharp money, as there was a Pinnacle steam move triggered on the over. Pinnacle is arguably the sharpest offshore sportsbook, and this season, the Pinnacle over/under steam move has gone 30-20 (60 percent) with plus-4.7 units won.
Atlanta (33.8 PPG) led the league in scoring while ranking just 27th in scoring defense (25.4 PPG). This created the perfect storm for bettors, with the Falcons (13-2) finishing the regular season as the most profitable over team. In fact, the over went a perfect 8-0 in Falcons home games.
The Seahawks are widely considered to have one of the league's top defenses, but the absence of Earl Thomas stings more than many bettors might realize. The Falcons looked solid against Detroit, but Matthew Stafford was clearly affected by his finger injury. It's also noteworthy that the over went 9-7 in Seattle's regular-season games. Some of the value is gone after the initial line move, but we're going to follow the sharp money and take the over in Saturday's matchup.
The play: Over 51.5
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Over/under 44.5)
By now, most bettors probably know that the Patriots (-15.5) are the biggest playoff favorites since the Minnesota Vikings closed as 16-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals nearly 20 years ago. They might also know that New England has received an unprecedented level of public support, despite that lofty spread. However, bettors might not realize that the best value in this game comes on the total.
Early forecasts call for swirling winds, freezing temperatures and the possibility of some light snow flurries. With that inclement weather, there's no doubt that we're eyeing the under.
The total for Saturday night's game opened at 45, and although 61 percent of tickets have taken the over, 69 percent of money has taken the under. Money percentages that contradict our ticket percentages indicate that several large wagers (likely placed by sharper bettors) have taken the under. This sharp money on the under has caused the total to drop from 45 to 44.5. Bettors might also be interested to know that although the Patriots are known for their elite offense, they led the league in scoring defense (15.6 PPG) during the regular season. At 10-6, they were actually one of the best under teams this season. Ditto for the Texans, who posted an identical 10-6 under record.
With inclement weather expected, we anticipate that both teams will rely heavily on their talented running backs, LeGarrette Blount and Lamar Miller. That means fewer possessions and less scoring.
The play: Under 44.5
Bonus play: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Over/under 52)
This will be one of the more intriguing plays because AT&T Stadium has a retractable roof, and it's highly probable that the roof will be closed, seeing as forecasts call for light rain. If the Cowboys decide to keep their roof open, this under could have tremendous value.
After opening at 51 on Sunday evening, public money poured in on the over, with 82 percent of tickets and 92 percent of money taking the over. This one-sided public betting caused the total to increase from 51 to 52 at the Westgate Superbook. Sports Insights has not triggered any bet signals on the over, which is a good indicator that sharp money is not responsible for this one-point line move.
Forecasts call for 15 mph winds, which have historically been advantageous for under bettors. Although it's likely the roof will be closed, Dallas would have a strategic advantage in keeping it open, given that passing teams are more adversely affected by strong winds than running teams.
Since 2003, the under has gone 19-13 in playoff games with 10-plus mph winds. It's also worth noting that the under has gone 10-6 in Cowboys games this seasons, as their propensity to run the ball leads to more running clock and fewer possessions. I would recommend waiting until an official announcement is made, but this under has tremendous value if the Cowboys opt to keep the roof open. That said, it will likely not qualify as a play.
The play: Under 52
Note: These lines are subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
