Yeah, I know. He's starting another thread. Oh my gawd another thread started by Bad_Cat. Well, I posted a thread with my picks for this week and I am going to transfer those picks to this thread (My other thread was riddled with an argument and garbage posts by myself and someone else) and I will include why I am choosing each side.
When I handicap games based on statistics and other information it seems that it takes hours and the return for me is less than acceptable. I don't obviously post every game that I wager on but the fact still remains the books have the exact same stats as we do and a whole lot more than we have access too. What that tells me is we are trying to out smart the pro's at the books and good luck with that. I have studied point spreads on and off for a long time and when I have made plays in the past that compare ratings (Vegas Ratings) and point spreads I seem to have a lot more success.
Last week in the Wild Card round I posted a Vegas Rating thread and if you understood the content and made the correct play based on the Vegas Ratings as compared to the actual game line you would have won all 4 games. I'm not saying I was 4-0 last week and am not trying confuse anyone about a "Record" because I did have another stats thread in which I was 1-2, I'm just posting this to keep track of Vegas Ratings/point spread based plays.
It's very simple. Each week I have access to the Las Vegas NFL ratings for each team. The ratings are used to produce a generic starting point to formulate point spreads. What I do is use the updated weekly Vegas Ratings and I formulate a point spread, compare it to the actual line and then make a play.
I will post the divisional round picks again with an explanation for each pick momentarily.....
When I handicap games based on statistics and other information it seems that it takes hours and the return for me is less than acceptable. I don't obviously post every game that I wager on but the fact still remains the books have the exact same stats as we do and a whole lot more than we have access too. What that tells me is we are trying to out smart the pro's at the books and good luck with that. I have studied point spreads on and off for a long time and when I have made plays in the past that compare ratings (Vegas Ratings) and point spreads I seem to have a lot more success.
Last week in the Wild Card round I posted a Vegas Rating thread and if you understood the content and made the correct play based on the Vegas Ratings as compared to the actual game line you would have won all 4 games. I'm not saying I was 4-0 last week and am not trying confuse anyone about a "Record" because I did have another stats thread in which I was 1-2, I'm just posting this to keep track of Vegas Ratings/point spread based plays.
It's very simple. Each week I have access to the Las Vegas NFL ratings for each team. The ratings are used to produce a generic starting point to formulate point spreads. What I do is use the updated weekly Vegas Ratings and I formulate a point spread, compare it to the actual line and then make a play.
I will post the divisional round picks again with an explanation for each pick momentarily.....
