The final four, statistically speaking

Willie99 · Jan 17, 2017

Total Offense
2) Atlanta 415.8
4) NE 386.3
7) Pitt 372.6
8) GB 368.8

Scoring Offense
1) Atlanta 33.8
3) NE 27.6
4) GB 27.0
10) Pitt 24.9

all four teams are hot
all four teams are on a great run
all four teams can score

I don't see any advantage here

Willie99 · Jan 17, 2017

Total Defense
8) NE 326.4
12) Pitt 342.6
22) GB 363.9
25) Atl 371.2

Passing defense (very big considering the 4 QB's)
12) NE 237.9
16) Pitt 242.6
28) Atl 266.7
31) GB 269.3

Scoring defense
1) NE 15.6
10) Pitt 20.4
21) GB 24.3
27) Atl 25.4

the NFC teams don't play defense, an advantage to NE 1st and Pitt 2nd

WinnersareGrinners · Jan 17, 2017

Willie99 said:
Total Offense
2) Atlanta 415.8
4) NE 386.3
7) Pitt 372.6
8) GB 368.8

Scoring Offense
1) Atlanta 33.8
3) NE 27.6
4) GB 27.0
10) Pitt 24.9

all four teams are hot
all four teams are on a great run
all four teams can score

I don't see any advantage here

3 are cold weather teams, 1 is a dome team with overall superior team speed....SB in a dome on a fast deck....not saying the other 3 aren't good in a dome but it's certainly better for Atl

Willie99 · Jan 17, 2017

coaching, game planning, this is my opinion

1) Belichick, and it's not very close (looking at both sides of the ball)
2) McCarthy, especially on offense
3) Tomlin, always consistent, rarely exceptional
4) Quinn, great year and still mostly unknown

Willie99 · Jan 17, 2017

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-19-dvoa-ratings

If you are new to our website, you can read the explanation of how DVOA is figured here. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
Teams in yellow are still alive in the playoffs. Teams in gray lost this past weekend.

	TEAM	WEI. DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	WEI OFF DVOA	OFF. RANK	WEI DEF DVOA	DEF. RANK	WEI S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK	TOTAL DVOA	RANK

1	NE	38.0%	1	15-2	22.5%	3	-9.5%	7	6.1%	5	27.6%	1
2	PIT	27.2%	2	13-5	12.6%	8	-14.6%	4	-0.1%	20	18.3%	4
3	ATL	25.0%	4	12-5	29.4%	1	4.0%	21	-0.3%	22	21.3%	2
4	DAL	22.2%	3	13-4	18.6%	5	0.6%	18	4.1%	7	20.7%	3
5	GB	22.0%	6	12-6	28.0%	2	7.0%	25	1.0%	13	16.4%	6
6	KC	19.7%	5	12-5	5.9%	11	-3.0%	13	10.8%	1	13.5%	7
7	BAL	14.9%	8	8-8	1.8%	14	-5.0%	11	8.1%	3	5.9%	10
8	TEN	12.9%	9	9-7	14.7%	7	6.8%	23	5.0%	6	3.9%	13
9	WAS	11.9%	10	8-7-1	21.9%	4	8.4%	27	-1.6%	24	9.2%	8
10	PHI	10.5%	7	7-9	-3.8%	19	-6.4%	9	7.8%	4	17.1%	5
11	NYG	8.2%	12	11-6	-9.8%	25	-17.3%	2	0.8%	15	4.9%	12
12	TB	7.3%	11	9-7	-1.0%	16	-8.8%	8	-0.5%	23	-1.6%	21
13	ARI	5.5%	16	7-8-1	-1.2%	17	-12.0%	5	-5.3%	28	1.7%	16
14	CIN	5.2%	13	6-9-1	4.3%	12	-1.2%	15	-0.2%	21	3.0%	15
15	IND	4.8%	14	8-8	7.3%	10	5.1%	22	2.6%	9	-5.1%	24
16	OAK	2.0%	17	12-5	3.3%	13	1.9%	20	0.7%	16	5.3%	11
	TEAM	WEI. DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	WEI OFF DVOA	OFF. RANK	WEI DEF DVOA	DEF. RANK	WEI S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK	TOTAL DVOA	RANK

17	SEA	1.8%	15	11-6-1	-5.0%	21	-5.0%	12	1.9%	12	8.3%	9
18	NO	0.0%	18	7-9	14.9%	6	12.8%	30	-2.1%	25	-0.4%	17
19	CAR	-2.7%	19	6-10	-12.9%	27	-10.0%	6	0.2%	17	-4.8%	23
20	MIA	-5.0%	21	10-7	-0.5%	15	6.9%	24	2.3%	11	-1.9%	22
21	DEN	-6.1%	20	9-7	-21.5%	29	-20.0%	1	-4.5%	27	3.8%	14
22	BUF	-7.7%	23	7-9	10.0%	9	12.2%	28	-5.5%	29	-0.7%	18
23	SD	-9.1%	22	5-11	-9.1%	24	-5.7%	10	-5.8%	30	-1.0%	19
24	JAC	-9.3%	25	3-13	-8.4%	23	-2.1%	14	-3.0%	26	-10.7%	26
25	CHI	-9.5%	24	3-13	-1.9%	18	7.6%	26	0.0%	19	-7.9%	25
26	HOU	-10.9%	27	10-8	-22.0%	30	-17.0%	3	-5.9%	31	-18.0%	28
27	MIN	-12.8%	26	8-8	-12.0%	26	1.6%	19	0.8%	14	-1.1%	20
28	SF	-16.3%	29	2-14	-5.6%	22	13.0%	31	2.3%	10	-19.7%	29
29	DET	-18.3%	28	9-8	-3.8%	20	17.5%	32	3.1%	8	-17.6%	27
30	CLE	-27.4%	30	1-15	-15.3%	28	12.3%	29	0.1%	18	-30.9%	31
31	NYJ	-33.5%	31	5-11	-27.2%	31	-0.4%	16	-6.7%	32	-32.4%	32
32	LARM	-44.2%	32	4-12	-53.0%	32	0.1%	17	8.9%	2	-29.0%	30

Serbone · Jan 17, 2017

Injuries for GB-Atlanta are the key.

GB: If S Burnett is OK, then they will be where they were against Dallas. If CB Rollins is OK, too, then they are stronger. They will need at least one of them to deal with Ryan, both would make them a lot more likely to survive, they were out of gas even vs. Dak, who is not really in the top half of QB's as an NFL passer yet at all. If BOTH are out, GB is in deep ca ca.

So if both DB's come back there is thought that Jones will play but not be as explosive, that would help GB's chances a lot.

GB center is ??? and sure, Jordy Nelson, he would help but NOT THAT MUCH, Cook, Adams, Cobb are all top notch, with Montgomery in the slot some times and Allison needing attention, GB has plenty of receivers. Big TE Rodgers ain't bad, either.

Albatross · Jan 17, 2017

ATL has a very good rushing attack. It gets overlooked

PatsFan1283 · Jan 17, 2017

Serbone said:
Injuries for GB-Atlanta are the key.

GB: If S Burnett is OK, then they will be where they were against Dallas. If CB Rollins is OK, too, then they are stronger. They will need at least one of them to deal with Ryan, both would make them a lot more likely to survive, they were out of gas even vs. Dak, who is not really in the top half of QB's as an NFL passer yet at all. If BOTH are out, GB is in deep ca ca.

So if both DB's come back there is thought that Jones will play but not be as explosive, that would help GB's chances a lot.

GB center is ??? and sure, Jordy Nelson, he would help but NOT THAT MUCH, Cook, Adams, Cobb are all top notch, with Montgomery in the slot some times and Allison needing attention, GB has plenty of receivers. Big TE Rodgers ain't bad, either.

Nelson is a huge loss. He was by far their best weapon.

Look at how lackluster their passing game was last year and early this season when he was coming back from the ACL.

In the NYG/Dal games, other guys stepped up and Rodgers is playing out of his mind but still a huge loss. Especially with how many pts they likely need to score to win Sunday.

Serbone · Jan 17, 2017

PatsFan1283 said:
Nelson is a huge loss. He was by far their best weapon.

Look at how lackluster their passing game was last year and early this season when he was coming back from the ACL.

In the NYG/Dal games, other guys stepped up and Rodgers is playing out of his mind but still a huge loss. Especially with how many pts they likely need to score to win Sunday.

Last year, yes.
This year Cook has exploded on the scene and Adams, Cobb, and Montgomery have improved. Allison is green but is a real threat. Nelson's loss is minimal.

WinnersareGrinners · Jan 17, 2017

Albatross said:
ATL has a very good rushing attack. It gets overlooked

correct, its actually very close to Pit's which everyone views as being dominant....plus having 2 guys just makes it that much harder to slow down
Sometimes only using season averages doesnt tell you the full story,the ATL D is playing better last 5 games than they are ranked

mickj · Jan 18, 2017

Willie99 said:
Total Defense
8) NE 326.4
12) Pitt 342.6
22) GB 363.9
25) Atl 371.2

Passing defense (very big considering the 4 QB's)
12) NE 237.9
16) Pitt 242.6
28) Atl 266.7
31) GB 269.3

Scoring defense
1) NE 15.6
10) Pitt 20.4
21) GB 24.3
27) Atl 25.4

Do you have last 8 games only?

Willie99 · Jan 18, 2017

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game

this site breaks down a lot of things in a lot of different ways, but they don't give you an option to pick the last 8 games (that I saw)

they do have the last 3 games, but week 17 can distort things

PeePee · Jan 18, 2017

Serbone said:
Injuries for GB-Atlanta are the key.

GB: If S Burnett is OK, then they will be where they were against Dallas. If CB Rollins is OK, too, then they are stronger. They will need at least one of them to deal with Ryan, both would make them a lot more likely to survive, they were out of gas even vs. Dak, who is not really in the top half of QB's as an NFL passer yet at all. If BOTH are out, GB is in deep ca ca.

So if both DB's come back there is thought that Jones will play but not be as explosive, that would help GB's chances a lot.

GB center is ??? and sure, Jordy Nelson, he would help but NOT THAT MUCH, Cook, Adams, Cobb are all top notch, with Montgomery in the slot some times and Allison needing attention, GB has plenty of receivers. Big TE Rodgers ain't bad, either.

Injuries in NFL are overrated.... This is old news to Packers during their current 8 games winning streak.
The only one matter is Rogers and Ryan

Serbone · Jan 18, 2017

PeePee said:
Injuries in NFL are overrated.... This is old news to Packers during their current 8 games winning streak.
The only one matter is Rogers and Ryan

It is not that simple.

Sure, GB could overcome the DB injuries against some teams, like the dysfunctional Giants offense in the cold weather (dropped passes galore), and against running oriented Dallas (Dak is NOT a top passer at all).

BUT IMO if BOTH S Burnett is out (he had started against Dallas) and CB Rollins is unable to return, that is the critical difference and against Ryan they are in deep deep trouble. Without Burnett even Dak was hitting medium and deep patterns. GB was gassed in the secondary. Ryan will wear them down and put up 40+.

IF both play they will compete, and have a good chance to win. IF one plays they have a chance but will be worn down.

Also, Jones might play but will he be 100%? When he is he is about the most explosive WR in the NFL. He might not be 100%. They sure as hell are not going to tell anyone, and Jones might not know till game day. And I think he will NOT be 100%. We shall see.

PeePee · Jan 18, 2017

Ive heard this same breakdowns so many times last few weeks about Packers. How their depleted secondary is/was in trouble against superstars of NYG and Dallas.
On paper yes, but we all know football is not playing on paper and there's always next man up. Injuries in NFL not as critical as college where you don't have many talents

Willie99 · Jan 18, 2017

PeePee said:
Ive heard this same breakdowns so many times last few weeks about Packers. How their depleted secondary is/was in trouble against superstars of NYG and Dallas.
On paper yes, but we all know football is not playing on paper and there's always next man up. Injuries in NFL not as critical as college where you don't have many talents

And I'm pretty sure Dallas torched that defense and that secondary

GB can win, they're going to have to score at least 35 again, IMO

PS: yes, they have to play the games and stuff rarely goes exactly as expected

Serbone · Jan 18, 2017

PeePee said:
Ive heard this same breakdowns so many times last few weeks about Packers. How their depleted secondary is/was in trouble against superstars of NYG and Dallas.
On paper yes, but we all know football is not playing on paper and there's always next man up. Injuries in NFL not as critical as college where you don't have many talents

So did you have Oakland against Houston, missing a top notch QB and all pro LT?
I was all over Houston despite their awful offense.
If you take GB and both Burnett and Rollins are out, wow, you are in deep ca ca. How many of their original top 9 DB's will be out, then?
Sure injuries can be overcome sometimes...

mickj · Jan 18, 2017

Willie99 said:
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game

this site breaks down a lot of things in a lot of different ways, but they don't give you an option to pick the last 8 games (that I saw)

they do have the last 3 games, but week 17 can distort things

thanks

sdf · Jan 19, 2017

Willie99 said:
coaching, game planning, this is my opinion

1) Belichick, and it's not very close (looking at both sides of the ball)
2) McCarthy, especially on offense
3) Tomlin, always consistent, rarely exceptional
4) Quinn, great year and still mostly unknown

McCarthy 2nd? I have to disagree here. If it werent for Rodgers, McCarthy would have been fired

sdf · Jan 19, 2017

SOS would be interesting to see.
Did you have to play Denver, Oak, KC, SD? or Jax, Cle, Ind and Hou?

Pitt had a tough schedule it seems just from my recollection of games against NFC East, though they did get Cle 2x. I cant remember the last time NE played a tough game. Pitt was a good one, but no Ben. Sea was another good one and they lost.

all these teams have recent playoff experience, one way or the other so not much advantage either way

The final four, statistically speaking

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