2-0 in Conference Weekend. 27-31-2 overall. (45%). I came to the conclusion last week along with my NE pick that it would be an ATL/NE super bowl and that the spread would be -3.5. Well that is now mostly a reality. It is currently at -3. The other thing I said last week though, was that NE would "blow that away and win by 10 or so". So, I am sticking with that. So my Super Bowl pick is...
NE -3
-When I dig into averages as I do, a regular season's stats match up would be something in the order of NE 27, ATL 25. A playoffs based stats match up would be more like ATL 29, NE 28. This means that based solely on averages ATL would have to be the pick at +3. But the one thing I am having trouble wrapping my mind around is the regular season defensive statistics. In terms of points against average per game, New England was 15.6, good for 1st overall, but Atlanta came in 27th with a whopping 25.4. Hmm, 27th ranked defense... 2011 Giants anyone? Although the Giants were not anywhere close to a "good" offense at the time.
Average margin of victory in the 10 playoff games: 15.7. Games decided by 13 points or more in the 10 playoff games: eight. So I cannot imagine that the 3 points will come into play.
Tom Brady is 4-2 in Super Bowls, heading into his 7th. Both his losses were to Eli Manning. Just think about this for a second, if Archie and Olivia Manning stopped having sex after Peyton was born, it is possible and perhaps likely that Tom Brady would be a perfect 6-0 in Super Bowls. I wonder if he has ever had that conversation with a Manning family member? Anyhoo, since Eli won't be participating this time around, I think the kid has a good chance at becoming 5-2.
Oh well, crappy season for me this go round, so I will fade back into the shadows until September. Have fun guys and gals.
NE -3
-When I dig into averages as I do, a regular season's stats match up would be something in the order of NE 27, ATL 25. A playoffs based stats match up would be more like ATL 29, NE 28. This means that based solely on averages ATL would have to be the pick at +3. But the one thing I am having trouble wrapping my mind around is the regular season defensive statistics. In terms of points against average per game, New England was 15.6, good for 1st overall, but Atlanta came in 27th with a whopping 25.4. Hmm, 27th ranked defense... 2011 Giants anyone? Although the Giants were not anywhere close to a "good" offense at the time.
Average margin of victory in the 10 playoff games: 15.7. Games decided by 13 points or more in the 10 playoff games: eight. So I cannot imagine that the 3 points will come into play.
Tom Brady is 4-2 in Super Bowls, heading into his 7th. Both his losses were to Eli Manning. Just think about this for a second, if Archie and Olivia Manning stopped having sex after Peyton was born, it is possible and perhaps likely that Tom Brady would be a perfect 6-0 in Super Bowls. I wonder if he has ever had that conversation with a Manning family member? Anyhoo, since Eli won't be participating this time around, I think the kid has a good chance at becoming 5-2.
Oh well, crappy season for me this go round, so I will fade back into the shadows until September. Have fun guys and gals.
