[h=1]NFL championship weekend betting takeaways[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Over the course of this past NFL season, we've recapped all the games and separated them into bad beats, easy covers and 50/50 results.
The two conference championship games this past Sunday were mostly anticlimactic as the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots routed the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, to earn their berths in Super Bowl LI as favorites improved to 8-2 SU and ATS in this year's playoffs. However, we're still going to recap the games from a betting perspective -- especially for those who were unable to watch the games.
Besides, while the point-spread results weren't in much doubt, the over/unders weren't determined until well into the fourth quarters of both games; overs went 2-0 to improve to 7-3 in the postseason. There are other sports-betting notes along the way, plus I'll give my handicapping takeaways from each game.
We'll also include Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered based on the fundamentals and statistics that Massey-Peabody considers predictive.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
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[h=2]Easy covers (clearly right sides)[/h]
Atlanta (-6) in 44-21 home win over Green Bay
The Falcons went 80 yards in 13 plays on the opening drive of the game to take a 7-0 lead and were never ahead by less than the spread again. The Packers took their opening drive to the Atlanta 23-yard line, but then stalled and Mason Crosby missed a 41-yard field goal attempt. The Falcons went up 10-0 on a Matt Bryant FG, and it looked like the Packers were going to get right back in the game as they drove 64 yards in just seven plays, but fullback Aaron Ripkowski fumbled inside the 10 when Jalen Collins stripped the ball and recovered it in the end zone. That was the last time the outcome looked in doubt as the Falcons drove 80 yards in nine plays with Matt Ryan's 14-yard TD run putting them up 17-0; they added a TD pass to Julio Jones with three seconds left in the second quarter to go up 24-0 at halftime. That improved first-half favorites to 6-3 ATS in the postseason even though it stayed under the first-half total of 30.5 points.
The domination continued in the second half as the Packers went three-and-out on their first possession and the Falcons scored again on Jones' 73-yard catch-and-run TD pass from Ryan to lead 31-0 before the Packers finally got on the scoreboard with 9:19 left in the third quarter. That Packers score finally gave hope that the game could reach the playoff-record-high over/under of 60.5 points. The teams traded another two TDs in the third quarter and two in the fourth quarter to push it over at 44-21 on Aaron Rodgers' 1-yard TD pass to Jared Cook with 6:43 to play. The Packers outscored the Falcons 21-20 in the second half, but the Falcons covered as 4-point second-half underdogs, which dropped second-half faves to 6-2-1 ATS in the postseason.
The Falcons played a complete game while gaining 493 yards on offense and shutting out the Packers in the first half (and until the game was well in hand). The only possible criticism of the Falcons was their running game wasn't as explosive as usual with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and they struggled running inside. It hardly slowed them down this week but we'll see if it hurts them against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
New England (-5.5) in 36-17 home win over Pittsburgh
The Patriots varied from their usual strategy of deferring to the second half when they win the coin toss and took the opening possession 62 yards in six plays before settling for Stephen Gostkowski's 31-yard field goal. After the next three series ended in punts, the Patriots went ahead 10-0 on Tom Brady's 16-yard TD pass to Chris Hogan. The Steelers tried to make a game of it by driving 84 yards on their next possession, ending in a 5-yard TD run by DeAngelo Williams (in place of an injured Le'Veon Bell), but Chris Boswell missed the extra point. The Patriots responded with an 82-yard drive capped off by another Brady-to-Hogan TD pass on a flea-flicker. The Steelers added a Boswell FG before halftime, but the Patriots still led 17-9 and covered as 3.5-point first-half favorites and it went over the first-half total of 24.5 points.
The second-half line was set at pick 'em (so no favorite, meaning second-half faves finished 6-2-1 ATS) with an over/under of 26.5 points. The Patriots scored 17 unanswered points in the third quarter (and that's when sports books opened them as 3-point Super Bowl favorites over the Falcons) and added a Gostkowski FG in the fourth quarter to lead 36-9. The only thing in doubt was the over/under of 50 points (and the second-half over/under of 26.5) and both went over when Cobi Hamilton caught a 30-yard TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger with 3:36 to play to set the final score at 36-17. Second-half over/unders are 5-5 in the playoffs.
Similar to the Falcons, the Patriots played a complete game in shutting down the Steelers' powerful offense and gaining 431 yards. Also similar to the Falcons, they had a nominal rushing attack with just 57 yards on the ground, which could lead to a wide-open aerial battle in the Super Bowl.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Over the course of this past NFL season, we've recapped all the games and separated them into bad beats, easy covers and 50/50 results.
The two conference championship games this past Sunday were mostly anticlimactic as the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots routed the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, to earn their berths in Super Bowl LI as favorites improved to 8-2 SU and ATS in this year's playoffs. However, we're still going to recap the games from a betting perspective -- especially for those who were unable to watch the games.
Besides, while the point-spread results weren't in much doubt, the over/unders weren't determined until well into the fourth quarters of both games; overs went 2-0 to improve to 7-3 in the postseason. There are other sports-betting notes along the way, plus I'll give my handicapping takeaways from each game.
We'll also include Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered based on the fundamentals and statistics that Massey-Peabody considers predictive.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Easy covers (clearly right sides)[/h]
The Falcons went 80 yards in 13 plays on the opening drive of the game to take a 7-0 lead and were never ahead by less than the spread again. The Packers took their opening drive to the Atlanta 23-yard line, but then stalled and Mason Crosby missed a 41-yard field goal attempt. The Falcons went up 10-0 on a Matt Bryant FG, and it looked like the Packers were going to get right back in the game as they drove 64 yards in just seven plays, but fullback Aaron Ripkowski fumbled inside the 10 when Jalen Collins stripped the ball and recovered it in the end zone. That was the last time the outcome looked in doubt as the Falcons drove 80 yards in nine plays with Matt Ryan's 14-yard TD run putting them up 17-0; they added a TD pass to Julio Jones with three seconds left in the second quarter to go up 24-0 at halftime. That improved first-half favorites to 6-3 ATS in the postseason even though it stayed under the first-half total of 30.5 points.
The domination continued in the second half as the Packers went three-and-out on their first possession and the Falcons scored again on Jones' 73-yard catch-and-run TD pass from Ryan to lead 31-0 before the Packers finally got on the scoreboard with 9:19 left in the third quarter. That Packers score finally gave hope that the game could reach the playoff-record-high over/under of 60.5 points. The teams traded another two TDs in the third quarter and two in the fourth quarter to push it over at 44-21 on Aaron Rodgers' 1-yard TD pass to Jared Cook with 6:43 to play. The Packers outscored the Falcons 21-20 in the second half, but the Falcons covered as 4-point second-half underdogs, which dropped second-half faves to 6-2-1 ATS in the postseason.
The Falcons played a complete game while gaining 493 yards on offense and shutting out the Packers in the first half (and until the game was well in hand). The only possible criticism of the Falcons was their running game wasn't as explosive as usual with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and they struggled running inside. It hardly slowed them down this week but we'll see if it hurts them against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots varied from their usual strategy of deferring to the second half when they win the coin toss and took the opening possession 62 yards in six plays before settling for Stephen Gostkowski's 31-yard field goal. After the next three series ended in punts, the Patriots went ahead 10-0 on Tom Brady's 16-yard TD pass to Chris Hogan. The Steelers tried to make a game of it by driving 84 yards on their next possession, ending in a 5-yard TD run by DeAngelo Williams (in place of an injured Le'Veon Bell), but Chris Boswell missed the extra point. The Patriots responded with an 82-yard drive capped off by another Brady-to-Hogan TD pass on a flea-flicker. The Steelers added a Boswell FG before halftime, but the Patriots still led 17-9 and covered as 3.5-point first-half favorites and it went over the first-half total of 24.5 points.
The second-half line was set at pick 'em (so no favorite, meaning second-half faves finished 6-2-1 ATS) with an over/under of 26.5 points. The Patriots scored 17 unanswered points in the third quarter (and that's when sports books opened them as 3-point Super Bowl favorites over the Falcons) and added a Gostkowski FG in the fourth quarter to lead 36-9. The only thing in doubt was the over/under of 50 points (and the second-half over/under of 26.5) and both went over when Cobi Hamilton caught a 30-yard TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger with 3:36 to play to set the final score at 36-17. Second-half over/unders are 5-5 in the playoffs.
Similar to the Falcons, the Patriots played a complete game in shutting down the Steelers' powerful offense and gaining 431 yards. Also similar to the Falcons, they had a nominal rushing attack with just 57 yards on the ground, which could lead to a wide-open aerial battle in the Super Bowl.
