I smell a rat

bobbyjones2 · Jan 27, 2017

I lined this game ne -6. NE has been the most profitable ats squad this year going 15-3 and covering by an astounding 9.3 points. Albeit against the softest schedule in the nfl. Dead last. How many games did they win by 3 points?

I feel like I did last year when Kansas, ranked first, steamrolling through the ncaas played Villanova. I am way more familiar with fball lines than b ball, but I figured KU -5 at the minimum. The books hung KU -2. And I knew.

We all know, that most will be on the pats here, and for good reason. Most all of the joes, but there are also some sharp guys in here playing ne so theres that. You could get the sheep to lay 6 with ne, cause they re NE. You dont get rich betting against TB and BB, but this line is a joke. And the book aint moving ne to 2.5 no matter what, and imo, they re scared shitless to go to 3.5 cause the sharps will gobble that shit up.

Only one way to go here for me and thats to wait. Because, imo, when all that patriot money comes flying in, and its going to come, cause duh, its brady and bellicek, the books are going to 3.5 and thats when I make a similar play as did in the national championship game. This line is all wrong, the books are showing ATL a lot of love and I think for good reason. I like Quinn matching up against Brady, and I take my chances with Shanahan, who quietly has painted a mona lisa of an offense this year. Feel strongly about this. I have been seieng the ball well in the play offs, I hope it continues.

cubfan · Jan 27, 2017

My feelings exactly.

I suspect that books were reluctant to hang 4-6 points out there with two prolific offenses and the likelihood of a seesaw battle. On the other hand, if you like New England--and, as you outlined, there are many good reasons to do so--surely you expect them to win by at least 3, right?

Brady and Bellichek vs. a QB in his first Super Bowl, one with a history of disappointing playoff performances--who wouldn't lay the 3? Why bother with the ML?

Serbone · Jan 27, 2017

"Vegas is f*cking with us"... famous last words.

Loves2kickass · Jan 27, 2017

+1 like I said as soon as the conference championship games ended, Atlanta covers the SB line.

kid31 · Jan 27, 2017

dont overthink it

it would be -6 in new england; at least. Its a neutral field. New England is going to win and cover.

lolz_69 · Jan 27, 2017

I couldn't agree more Bobby. It certainly is a fishy line, I was thinking somewhere around 4. I think the time is ripe for Atlanta. I have a juicy future on them, and I am buoyed by the fact that Atlanta are very aggressive, they will take all the risks necessary as well as having a great game plan. Couple that with the fact the NFL would LOVE for Ryan to be the league's new superstar and we are set up for some very interesting refereeing decisions.

ofred · Jan 28, 2017

Excellent post. I've been thinking similar things. The whole Belichick, Brady, 2 weeks to prepare, 15-3 ATS…it just seems too easy to play the Pats. But -3 just seems like too little for such advantages. Like you said, there is sharp money on both sides waiting for that 1/2point change. What's a bettor to do?

chonce · Jan 28, 2017

I don't think the line is fishy. If they were in NE it would be 6. In ATL it would be a PK. The Falcons just steamrolled two powerhouse NFC teams and have the best offense in football.

theMadMan · Jan 28, 2017

Check NE Scores in Thier Superbowl Wins?

They DO NOT roll teams there......... always seem close.

bobbyjones2 · Jan 28, 2017

chonce said:
I don't think the line is fishy. If they were in NE it would be 6. In ATL it would be a PK. The Falcons just steamrolled two powerhouse NFC teams and have the best offense in football.

someone posted a stat on twitter that ne allowed basically any competent qb to throw for over their average this year..

brady and bb obviously the tandem of the decade(s), but i dont think this ne team is great (without gronk) i feel as if the nfl is just so terrible, that ne is a good team w a great qb and coach whom simply waits for the other teams to screw up and capitalize

if atlanta bothers brady, they will win, but imo, they are getting the cover regardless

bobbyjones2 · Jan 28, 2017

What's a bettor to do?[/QUOTE]

i am putting on a pot of coffee and waiting fred..this line will have to move..

ofred · Jan 28, 2017

bobbyjones2 said:
What's a bettor to do?

i am putting on a pot of coffee and waiting fred..this line will have to move..[/QUOTE]
Waiting too. Either way, I can't see any reason to play it large. Will look at the total more, and props I guess.

3pointdog · Jan 28, 2017

Totally agree with OP. I felt line could be -4.5 to -6 and you would still get 7 out of 10 tickets on the pats. If you like falcons, and I do, wait. -3.5 has to be around the corner. Liking the under as well. People are talking about the offenses only. Let's not forget about the defenses here.

Biz · Jan 28, 2017

There is nothing fishy with this line at all.

Atlanta is the highest scoring team in the league, rolled through the playoffs. They are going to get respect from the linemakers.

From a Power Rating perspective its right on the number. There is a 3 point differential in PR, -3 is the correct number.

We hear this all season, this line or that line is fishy. Sometimes it is, most of the times it isn't. This isn't. If this line was -6 the books would get hammered with Atlanta money.

Doubt this moves much at all. It might get juiced, but I would be surprised if this line sees -4. MAYBE -3.5 but I don't think so. Its staying at -3 with some juice if NE gets bet a little more. Still plenty of bets to be made.

billbeater · Jan 29, 2017

Atlanta +3 -122 at a sharper site, but still a week away and lots of green still to be bet.
They do have the firepower to keep up, no doubt.
It's likely a tough good superbowl game where a turnover can win this game!

dsong · Jan 29, 2017

After Spygate and Deflategate it's much too easy to become jaded.

It wouldn't be the first Super Bowl decided by refereeing irregularities...

Denist.Lemieux · Jan 29, 2017

Loving Atlanta and under here. Agreed, my immediate thought was -3????? They're baiting people. Everyone bet New England against Houston and Pittsburgh and won. Can't see "the powers that be " allowing a big loss like that a 3rd game in a row

However, the only thing that makes me nervous is that historically, for some reason, New England always seems to get the calls- more than any other NFL team. one example among many??? 01 snow bowl against Oakland. Yesss, the Raiders won that game. No matter what any NE homer says.

cashflow50 · Jan 29, 2017

I remember that game all to well. Shady

ofred · Jan 29, 2017

Pinnacle and Bookmaker are at +02 and -05 respectively on the -3 line. Could that be an indication that this line is never going to 3.5.

Buckeyefan80 · Jan 29, 2017

Saw this morning that after 1 week there has been more money bet on this game than any regular season game. There's a lot of degenerates out there. Still a lot of money to be bet too.

I smell a rat

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come strong or dont come at all

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