Super Bowl LI betting profile: New England Patriots
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
In advance of the biggest gambling event of the year, ESPN Chalk will have multiple pieces dedicated to helping bettors place smarter wagers on Super Bowl LI.
To begin the week, we break down the New England Patriots' 2016 season from a gambling perspective, including a look at their future-book odds, over/under season win total and a game-by-game breakdown. This is basically everything you should know if you're considering backing the Patriots. (We'll do the same with the Atlanta Falcons on Tuesday.)
Preseason odds
New England's Super Bowl LI future-book odds (plus odds to win AFC East and AFC Championship)
On Monday, Jan. 11, 2016, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl LI futures, and the Patriots were listed as 8-1 tri-favorites with the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers. They were bet to 6-1 favoritism until April 25, when Tom Brady's four-game suspension was reinstated and the Westgate raised them back to 8-1 along with the Seahawks. By the start of the season, bettors had again made the Patriots the 6-1 favorite despite Brady being slated to miss the first four games.
Similarly, the Patriots opened as the 7-2 co-favorites with the Steelers to win the AFC and lost some support with the Brady suspension. However, by the time the season started, they were the solid 11-4 favorites (just under 3-1) to win the AFC.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The AFC East odds weren't posted until after Brady's suspension was reinstated, so the Westgate opened them as the overwhelming 4-9 faves to win the AFC East on May 1, and that was the line in the week leading up to the start of the season.
Season win total: 10.5 (over -120)
The Patriots opened with an over/under of 10.5 wins with -110 on the over and -110 on the under. Some books dropped to 10 wins after the April 25 announcement that Brady would miss the first four games of the season, but by the time the regular season started in September, the over had been bet all the way back up to 10.5 with -120 on the over. The Patriots easily went over their total in Week 14, when they improved to 11-2 on the way to an NFL-best 14-2 record in the regular season.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">New England Patriots' 2016 season
Lines and O/U are the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines taken from the average of the 13 Vegas-based books on the Don Best odds screen at kickoff of each game.
</header>
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
In advance of the biggest gambling event of the year, ESPN Chalk will have multiple pieces dedicated to helping bettors place smarter wagers on Super Bowl LI.
To begin the week, we break down the New England Patriots' 2016 season from a gambling perspective, including a look at their future-book odds, over/under season win total and a game-by-game breakdown. This is basically everything you should know if you're considering backing the Patriots. (We'll do the same with the Atlanta Falcons on Tuesday.)
Preseason odds
New England's Super Bowl LI future-book odds (plus odds to win AFC East and AFC Championship)
On Monday, Jan. 11, 2016, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl LI futures, and the Patriots were listed as 8-1 tri-favorites with the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers. They were bet to 6-1 favoritism until April 25, when Tom Brady's four-game suspension was reinstated and the Westgate raised them back to 8-1 along with the Seahawks. By the start of the season, bettors had again made the Patriots the 6-1 favorite despite Brady being slated to miss the first four games.
Similarly, the Patriots opened as the 7-2 co-favorites with the Steelers to win the AFC and lost some support with the Brady suspension. However, by the time the season started, they were the solid 11-4 favorites (just under 3-1) to win the AFC.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The AFC East odds weren't posted until after Brady's suspension was reinstated, so the Westgate opened them as the overwhelming 4-9 faves to win the AFC East on May 1, and that was the line in the week leading up to the start of the season.
Season win total: 10.5 (over -120)
The Patriots opened with an over/under of 10.5 wins with -110 on the over and -110 on the under. Some books dropped to 10 wins after the April 25 announcement that Brady would miss the first four games of the season, but by the time the regular season started in September, the over had been bet all the way back up to 10.5 with -120 on the over. The Patriots easily went over their total in Week 14, when they improved to 11-2 on the way to an NFL-best 14-2 record in the regular season.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">New England Patriots' 2016 season
Lines and O/U are the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines taken from the average of the 13 Vegas-based books on the Don Best odds screen at kickoff of each game.
</header>
WK | OPPONENT | LINE | O/U | PF | PA | SU | ATS | O/U |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | at Arizona | 9 | 44.5 | 23 | 21 | W | W | U |
2 | MIAMI | -5.5 | 42 | 31 | 24 | W | W | O |
3 | HOUSTON | PK | 39 | 27 | 0 | W | W | U |
4 | BUFFALO | -3.5 | 41 | 0 | 16 | L | L | U |
5 | at Cleveland | -10 | 47.5 | 33 | 13 | W | W | U |
6 | CINCINNATi | -7.5 | 48.5 | 35 | 17 | W | W | O |
7 | at Pittsburgh | -7.5 | 50 | 27 | 16 | W | W | U |
8 | at Buffalo | -6.5 | 48 | 41 | 25 | W | W | O |
9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |