[h=1]Super Bowl LI betting profile: Atlanta Falcons[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
We started our Super Bowl LI betting coverage Monday with a recap of the New England Patriots' 2016 season with a look at their future-book odds, over/under season win total and game-by-game breakdown.
Now it's the Atlanta Falcons' turn.
Below is basically everything you should know if you're considering backing the Falcons (see Monday's betting profile of the Patriots).
[h=2]Preseason odds[/h]Atlanta's Super Bowl LI future-book odds (plus odds to win NFC South and NFC championship)
On Jan. 11, 2016, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl LI futures, and the Falcons were listed at 40-1. They stayed there the rest of the winter and most of the spring until being raised to 60-1. They were under the radar, and sportsbooks didn't take many bets on them, and they were raised to 80-1 as the regular season approached and were even offered at 100-1 at some books (as was discussed in my ESPN Chalk story about when I bet them at William Hill at 100-1).
The Falcons were also dismissed in the middle of the pack at 20-1 to win the NFC when the odds opened and increased to as high as 50-1 before the season started with only the San Francisco 49ers (100-1) having higher odds (note: the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams were also as high as 50-1 at the Westgate before the season started).
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The NFC South odds were posted after the draft with the Falcons opening at 7-1 and gradually increasing over the summer to 10-1, the longest shot in the division behind even the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Season win total: 7 (over -130)
The Westgate opened the Falcons with an over/under win total of 7 with -110 on the over and -110 on the under. While Atlanta wasn't a popular bet in the other future, it did get support in the season win totals since the number was so low (meaning they would just have to repeat their 8-8 season from last year to cash the over 7). Some other books went with Atlanta over/under 7.5 wins with added juice on the under, but the Westgate gradually increased the Falcons' number to -7 (-130). The Falcons went over their total in Week 14 when they routed the Los Angeles Rams 42-14 to improve to 8-5 on the way to finishing second in the NFC during the regular season at 11-5.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Atlanta Falcons' 2016 season[/h]Lines and O/U are the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines taken from the average of the 13 Vegas-based books on the Don Best odds screen at kickoff of each game.
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[h=2]Regular season[/h]Record: 11-5 (No. 2 in the NFC to Dallas)
ATS record: 10-6 ATS (tied for fourth in the NFL ATS standings), net profit of 3.4 units
Over/unders: 13-2-1 with the over (No. 1 in the NFL), profit of 10.8 units with overs
Atlanta had an inauspicious start to the 2016 season as it lost 31-24 at home to Tampa Bay and saw its odds raised to 100-1 at the Westgate and 150-1 elsewhere, and the only teams with longer Super Bowl odds at the Westgate were San Francisco (1,000-1) and Cleveland (5,000-1). However, the Falcons won their next four games as underdogs at Oakland, at New Orleans, at home against Carolina and at Denver to take over first place in the NFC South. They lost at Seattle 26-24 in Week 6 but showed they could play with anyone as they covered as 7-point road underdogs and nearly got in potential game-winning field goal range, but there was a controversial no-call on pass interference by Seattle CB Richard Sherman.
The Falcons also lost to San Diego and Philadelphia to fall to 6-4 before their Week 11 bye but still remained the favorites to hold off the rest of the teams in the NFC South. They beat Arizona in Week 12 and lost to Kansas City in Week 13 to stand at 7-5 but then closed out the regular season with four straight victories to finish 11-5 and secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Falcons were consistently the best over team in the league, going over the total in the first four games of the season and 8-1 in the first nine games. Their last under was all the way back in Week 10 against the Eagles. Since their Week 11 bye, they're 7-0-1 with the over with the push coming in a 33-16 win over Carolina in Week 16 (over/under of 49 points).
Biggest win for bettors: Atlanta -3 at Carolina (Week 16)
There weren't a lot of games early in the season in which the public embraced the Falcons (especially since they played a lot of popular teams), but by Week 16 the public was all over them against the defending NFC champion Panthers, betting them from 2.5-point road favorites to the key number of -3 despite a lot of sharp action on Carolina (which was down to just the slimmest of playoff hopes). The public was rewarded for its support as the Falcons jumped out to a 13-0 lead and coasted to a relatively easy 33-16 victory.
Worst loss for bettors: Atlanta -7.5 vs. New Orleans (Week 17)
The very next week, the public was again all over the Falcons as they had already clinched the NFC South and needed one more victory to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. The public bet this from an opener of Atlanta -6.5, through the key number of 7, and it closed Atlanta -7.5. It didn't look like the number of points would matter as the Falcons jumped out to a 14-3 lead and led by as much as 38-13. However, the Saints scored 19 fourth-quarter points (13 in the final 2:47) to make the final score 38-32, as Atlanta bettors ended up having to tear up their tickets.
[h=2]Postseason[/h]Record: 2-0 (NFC champions)
ATS record: 2-0 ATS, 2 units of profit
Over/unders: 2-0 with the over, 2 units of profit
Even after earning the NFC's No. 2 seed, most people were still picking the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers or Seattle Seahawks to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. However, the Falcons routed the Seahawks 36-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in the divisional playoffs, and after the Packers took care of the Cowboys to give Atlanta the home field in the NFC Championship Game, the Falcons dominated the Packers 44-21 as 6-point home favorites to earn the trip to the Super Bowl. Both of Atlanta's playoff games also went over the totals.
[h=2]Splits and trends[/h]Atlanta as underdog
SU record: 4-2
ATS record: 5-1 for a net profit of 3.9 units
Over/under (as underdogs): 4-2 with the over
Atlanta is a 3-point underdog to New England in the Super Bowl. While the Patriots were only underdogs in two games all season, the Falcons were actually 'dogs on six occasions and excelled in the role at 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. In Weeks 2-5, they pulled out four straight upsets as they were underdogs at Oakland and New Orleans, home vs. Carolina and at Denver. They then lost 26-24 at Seattle, but covered as 7-point underdogs to keep their ATS road record perfect at 5-0. However, the last time they were an underdog in Week 10 at Philadelphia, the Falcons lost 24-15 as 1.5-point 'dogs. Still, that's a pretty impressive resume for an underdog. The Falcons were 4-2 with the over in those games, which looks pretty good, but keep in mind that it means they were 11-0-1 with overs when they were favored.
Atlanta away from home
Home record: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS (including playoffs)
Away record: 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS
Over/under (in away games): 5-2-1 with the over
Most people will think this is irrelevant because the Super Bowl is played at a neutral site, but a lot of handicappers (this is also true during March Madness) like to look at a team's road record to see how a team fares away from its home surroundings (after all, both teams do that at a neutral site). The Falcons actually performed better this season away from home at 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS, so their offense (and defense) have traveled well, and that bodes well for playing on the neutral field in Houston. The Falcons have a reputation as a better team at home, yet they were only 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season before sweeping their playoff games at home.
Trends that favor Atlanta
When it comes to Super Bowl betting trends, there are a lot more that point in the direction of the New England Patriots due to their big advantage in experience in playing in the big game. However, here are three that make it possible to make a case for fading the Patriots and taking the Falcons.
Yes, the tandem of coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady is 4-2 in Super Bowls, but most people aren't aware that the duo is 2-4 ATS. In addition to losing outright twice to the New York Giants, Belichick and Brady also didn't cover in their 32-29 win over Carolina in 2004 and 24-21 win over Philadelphia in 2005 as 7-point favorites both years. You'll hear a lot about "you'd be 42-6-2 ATS if you just picked the Super Bowl winner as the points seldom come into play," but those people don't point out that the Patriots are two of those exceptions.
The Patriots are 0-4 ATS as Super Bowl favorites. That's right, they were 14-point underdogs when they beat the Rams 20-17 in 2002 and 1-point 'dogs when they beat the Seahawks 28-24 in 2015. The aforementioned noncovers against the Panthers and Eagles and the two losses to the Giants were all as favorites. (Note: some people have the Patriots covering as 1-point favorites two years ago against the Seahawks, though I graded that game as a pick-em as the majority of books in Vegas closed at pick-em; however, if you want to still call the Pats the faves in that one, they're still only 1-4 ATS as Super Bowl faves.)
Underdogs are on a roll in recent Super Bowls as the Broncos beat the favored Panthers last year. Again, I'm counting the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl as a pick-em, and the three prior years were won by the Seahawks over the Broncos, Ravens over the 49ers, Giants over Patriots -- all outright winners as underdogs. In the past 14 years, underdogs are 11-3 ATS (11-4 ATS if counting the Seahawks as +1 two years ago).
[h=2]Game-by-game breakdown[/h]For those who want a closer look at all of the Falcons' games from this season, these are our betting recaps from each week:
Week 1 (wrong side): Atlanta (-2.5) in 31-24 home loss to Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers fell behind 10-3 but were up 17-13 by halftime and 31-13 with 5:12 left in the third quarter and then coasted to the upset. A lot of people are praising Jameis Winston and the Bucs' offense, specifically Charles Sims' 28-yard catch-and-run TD, but what I saw was a bunch of missed tackles and an Atlanta defense that was supposed to be improved but got run over at home.
Week 2 (easy cover): Atlanta (+4) in 35-28 win at Oakland
The Falcons never trailed by more than the spread (and only once by 4 points at 7-3), so they were clearly the right side. The Raiders had a chance to cover after tying the game 21-21, but the Falcons pulled away with two TDs. Oakland's tying TD came on a fourth-and-goal play that showed Jack Del Rio to be challenging Ron Rivera for the "Riverboat ___" moniker. The over 48 was in a little doubt after a scoreless first quarter, but these two defenses continue to get shredded and make these two clear over teams.
Week 3 (easy cover): Atlanta (+3) in 45-32 win at New Orleans
This looks like a rout -- and the Falcons led by as much as 35-17 -- but was closer to being a 50/50 result early in the game. The Saints took the opening drive 75 yards in 11 plays to lead 7-0 and forced a three-and-out by the Falcons; however, punt returner Tommylee Lewis muffed the punt when teammate De'Vante Harris collided with him and the ball was recovered by the Falcons at the Saints' 11-yard line. Three plays later, Tevin Coleman converted the gift into a 7-7 tie. It was tied again at 14-14 with 9:55 left in the second quarter, but the Falcons scored two TDs to pull away before halftime. Atlanta showed a balanced offense even with Julio Jones held to just one catch for 16 yards. Matt Ryan spread the ball around to eight different receivers, including TD passes to Devonta Freeman and Justin Hardy. Freeman also rushed for 155 yards, while Coleman was the ultimate fantasy vulture with three rushing TDs. The Falcons' defense allowed 32 points, but contributed to their own point total with Deion Jones' 90-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter.
Week 4 (easy cover): Atlanta (+3) in 48-33 home win over Carolina
The Falcons jumped all over the Panthers, leading 14-0 and 17-7 before the Panthers pulled within 17-10 by halftime. They then extended their lead to 34-10 with 13:19 left in the game before the fireworks really began as that was the start of a 40-point fourth quarter. The Falcons showed they can score on anyone, but the defense, while it stepped up on occasions during the first three quarters, still gives up too many points as the Panthers' offense didn't miss a beat with Derek Anderson after Cam Newton had to leave the game with a concussion.
Week 5 (easy cover): Atlanta (+4) in 23-16 road upset at Denver
The Falcons scored on a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive on their opening possession against the Broncos' vaunted defense and never looked back. Denver never got back within a TD until Brandon McManus' 45-yard FG with 14 seconds to play. Julio Jones didn't have 300 receiving yards this week as Atlanta's game plan was to use Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman underneath (and rightly so, and it helped Matt Ryan get sacked only twice). But more encouraging (since I have Falcons at 10-1 to win the division and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl) is that the defense continued to improve, though it did benefit from playing rookie Paxton Lynch, who was sacked six times.
Week 6 (50/50 result): Atlanta (+7) in 26-24 spread-covering road loss at Seattle
The Seahawks looked like the right side early, grabbing a 7-0 lead and then leading 17-3 at halftime, but the Falcons rallied and looked like the right side when they took a 24-17 lead late in the third quarter. The Falcons looked like the right side after taking a 24-17 lead by the end of the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks rallied (though a missed extra point by Steven Hauschka left them down 24-23 with 4:43 to play before Hauschka hit the game-winning FG with 1:57 to play). The battle of the Falcons' No. 1 offense vs. Seattle's No. 1 defense was a split decision. Both teams should be fine moving forward.
Week 7 (bad beat, right side loser): Atlanta (-6.5) losing 33-30 at home against San Diego
This wasn't the worst "Bad Beat" we've seen, but the Chargers have to feel great about being on the winning side of one of these. The Falcons led 27-10 in the second quarter and were still covering at 30-20 with 13:23 to play. The Chargers got in the back door with 5:59 to play on Melvin Gordon's 5-yard TD pass from Philip Rivers and then kept it going by tying the game on Josh Lambo's 33-yard FG with 18 seconds to play and then winning on his 42-yarder in overtime. Both teams continue to excel on offense (426 yards for San Diego to 386 for Atlanta) but can't be trusted to stop anyone, so they're both teams to look at with the over (Falcons are 6-1 with the over, Chargers 5-2).
Week 8 (wrong side): Atlanta (-3) in 33-32 noncovering home win against Green Bay
Falcons backers might argue that they had the right side as they pulled out the victory, but the fact is it's hard to cover as 3-point favorites when you never lead by more than a field goal -- and the Falcons' biggest leads were at 3-0 and 10-7 in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Packers led 21-13 in the second quarter and were never really in danger of not covering. Scoring slowed down in the third quarter, but there was never any doubt this game was going over the total of 51 points, and both teams should be avoided for under plays moving forward with the offenses clicking.
Week 9 (easy cover): Atlanta (-5) in 43-28 win at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers actually led 7-0 and 14-13, but the Falcons led 20-14 by halftime and took control in the third quarter before eventually leading 40-14 before the Bucs closed the gap in garbage time. There was also little doubt of the game going over 49.5 points. The Falcons' offense continues to dominate, though there is concern with the defense to hold opponents down, though this does make them a great over team.
Week 10 (wrong side): Atlanta (+1.5) in 24-15 loss at Philadelphia
The Eagles were mostly the right side (and the Massey-Peabody numbers seems to agree), but it wasn't until the final score that the Eagles led by more than a TD more than the spread. The Falcons stayed within 7-6 at halftime and 10-9 at the end of the third quarter and even took a 15-13 lead on Taylor Gabriel's 76-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan. Julio Jones also dropped an easy pass that would have extended another drive. But give credit to the return of the Eagles' defense in holding down the league's No. 1 offense, and Ryan Mathews finally stepped up for the offense with two TDs and a two-point conversion.
Week 12 (easy cover): Atlanta (-4) in 38-19 home win over Arizona
While the Cardinals stuck around in the first half and led 7-0 and 10-7, their defense never looked like it would be able to contain the Falcons, and they pulled away in the second half. Arizona mostly took away Julio Jones (four catches, 35 yards), but the Falcons spread the wealth with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both running for TDs and eight players catching passes from Matt Ryan. And it was scary how easily Taylor Gabriel ran through the Cardinals' defense on his two TD catch-and-runs. The Atlanta defense doesn't get much credit, but it did a decent job of containing David Johnson (58 rushing yards). He did gain another 103 yards receiving, but that's preferable to giving up big plays to the Cardinals' receivers. In that regard, the Falcons' D did its job in protecting its lead.
Week 13 (wrong side): Atlanta (-5) in 29-28 home loss to Kansas City
Atlanta money-line bettors feel they took a Bad Beat as the Falcons had just gone ahead 28-27 and were trying for two when Eric Berry picked off a Matt Ryan pass and returned it the other way for a two-point defensive conversion. However, the Chiefs were the right side most of the game as they led 27-16 in the fourth quarter before the Falcons rallied. Besides, there's no guarantee that the Chiefs wouldn't have marched to the winning score anyway. The Chiefs got the win but also had another defensive TD (also by Berry), and Albert Wilson had a 55-yard TD run on a fake punt, so we could argue that the Falcons (who led 32-17 in first downs) played better most of the game except for a few key big plays.
Week 14 (easy cover): Atlanta (-5) in 42-14 win at Los Angeles
The Falcons dominated from the opening kickoff, which the Rams fumbled to set up a 3-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan to Justin Hardy just 10 seconds into the game, and the Falcons were off and running. Atlanta's offense hardly missed Julio Jones as eight players caught passes from Ryan for two more touchdown passes. The defense added two more TDs as Deion Jones had a pick-six and Vic Beasley Jr. had a strip-sack/fumble return against an overmatched Jared Goff. It's scary for other NFC teams if the Atlanta defense continues to improve.
Week 15 (easy cover): Atlanta (-14) in 41-13 home rout of San Francisco
It's hard to be clearly the right side when laying two touchdowns, but the Falcons jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and coasted from there. Atlanta continued to show a balanced, explosive offense even without star WR Julio Jones as Devonta Freeman ran for 139 and three TDs and Matt Ryan passed for 286 yards and two more TDs.
Week 16 (easy cover): Atlanta (-3) in 33-16 win at Carolina
The Falcons jumped out to a 13-0 lead and coasted from there as the baton was passed in the NFC South from last year's champion Carolina to Atlanta. Julio Jones was limited with his toe injury, but Matt Ryan continued to spread the ball around, including TD passes to backup tight ends Joshua Perkins and D.J. Tialavea. Tevin Coleman had 135 yards from scrimmage and added the other TD on a 55-yard run with 13:19 left in the fourth quarter that removed any doubt as far as the spread winner (though the game did push on the closing total of 49 points). This was the third game in a row that the defense allowed 16 points or fewer. Granted, the opponents were the Rams, 49ers and Panthers, but the Atlanta defense has continued to improve in the second half to the point that all the pressure isn't on the offense to win games.
Week 17 (bad beat, right side but didn't cover): Atlanta (-7.5) in 38-32 noncovering home win over New Orleans
Atlanta backers have been used to the Falcons jumping out to early leads all season and coasting to victories -- and this didn't look any different. The Falcons scored on their first drive on Matt Ryan's 7-yard TD pass to Tevin Coleman and, after the Saints responded with a 74-yard drive that ended in a field goal, Devonta Freeman romped 75 yards for a TD and a 14-3 lead. They extended that to 35-13 by halftime and led 38-13 heading to the fourth quarter as they were starting to celebrate clinching the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Saints responded by scoring 19 unanswered point in the fourth quarter, with the final score coming on Drew Brees' 3-yard TD pass to Travaris Cadet with just 39 seconds left to get the back-door cover at 38-32. Before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter, the Falcons dominated on both offense and defense and looked ready for the playoffs.
Divisional playoffs (easy cover): Atlanta (-6.5) in 36-20 win over Seattle
This started out looking like a 50/50 game as the Seahawks grabbed a 7-0 lead on Russell Wilson's 7-yard TD pass to Jimmy Graham that capped an 8-minute, 34-second opening drive, and then they took a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. However, the game turned when a holding penalty on an 80-yard Devin Hester punt return made the Seahawks start their drive inside their own 10-yard line, and then Wilson was tripped up by one of his own offensive linemen and fell in the end zone for a safety. That started a 19-point unanswered run by the Falcons as they took control of the game and led 26-10 midway through the third quarter. A Steven Hauschka field goal barely stemmed the tide as Atlanta added another 10 points to pull away to a 36-13 before giving up a garbage touchdown late (though it was Doug Baldwin's 31-yard TD catch from Wilson that put the game over the total of 51.5 points with 3:21 to play). The Falcons played a complete game with an explosive, balanced offensive attack and a defense that made adjustments after the opening drive and played more like Seattle than the Seahawks did.
Conference championship (easy cover): Atlanta (-6) in 44-21 home win over Green Bay
The Falcons went 80 yards in 13 plays on the opening drive of the game to take a 7-0 lead and were never ahead by less than the spread again. The Packers took their opening drive to the Atlanta 23 but then stalled, and Mason Crosby missed a 41-yard FG attempt. The Falcons went up 10-0 on a Matt Bryant FG, but it looked like the Packers were going to get right back in the game as they drove 64 yards in just seven plays, and fullback Aaron Ripkowski was dragging defenders on a first-down run and looked like the Packers were going to have first-and-goal when Jalen Collins stripped the ball and recovered it in the end zone. That was the last time the outcome looked in doubt as the Falcons marched 80 yards in nine plays with Matt Ryan's 14-yard TD run putting them up 17-0 and then adding a TD pass to Julio Jones with three seconds left in the second quarter to go up 24-0 at halftime. That improved first-half favorites to 6-3 ATS in the postseason even though it stayed under the first-half total of 30.5 points.
The domination continued in the second half as the Packers went three-and-out on their first possession and the Falcons scored again on Jones' 73-yard catch-and-run TD pass from Ryan to lead 31-0 before the Packers finally got on the scoreboard with 9:19 left in the third quarter. That finally gave hope that the game could reach the playoff-record-high over/under of 60.5 points. The teams traded another two TDs in the third quarter and another two in the fourth quarter to push it over at 44-21 on Aaron Rodgers' 1-yard TD pass to Jared Cook with 6:43 to play.
The Packers outscored the Falcons 21-20 in the second half, but the Falcons covered as 4-point second-half underdogs. That dropped second-half faves to 6-2-1 ATS in the postseason. The Falcons played a complete game while gaining 493 yards on offense and shutting out the Packers in the first half and until the game was well in hand. The only possible criticism of the Falcons was their running game wasn't as explosive as usual with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and they struggled running inside. It hardly slowed them down this week, but we'll see if it hurts them against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
We started our Super Bowl LI betting coverage Monday with a recap of the New England Patriots' 2016 season with a look at their future-book odds, over/under season win total and game-by-game breakdown.
Now it's the Atlanta Falcons' turn.
Below is basically everything you should know if you're considering backing the Falcons (see Monday's betting profile of the Patriots).
[h=2]Preseason odds[/h]Atlanta's Super Bowl LI future-book odds (plus odds to win NFC South and NFC championship)
On Jan. 11, 2016, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl LI futures, and the Falcons were listed at 40-1. They stayed there the rest of the winter and most of the spring until being raised to 60-1. They were under the radar, and sportsbooks didn't take many bets on them, and they were raised to 80-1 as the regular season approached and were even offered at 100-1 at some books (as was discussed in my ESPN Chalk story about when I bet them at William Hill at 100-1).
The Falcons were also dismissed in the middle of the pack at 20-1 to win the NFC when the odds opened and increased to as high as 50-1 before the season started with only the San Francisco 49ers (100-1) having higher odds (note: the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams were also as high as 50-1 at the Westgate before the season started).
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The NFC South odds were posted after the draft with the Falcons opening at 7-1 and gradually increasing over the summer to 10-1, the longest shot in the division behind even the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Season win total: 7 (over -130)
The Westgate opened the Falcons with an over/under win total of 7 with -110 on the over and -110 on the under. While Atlanta wasn't a popular bet in the other future, it did get support in the season win totals since the number was so low (meaning they would just have to repeat their 8-8 season from last year to cash the over 7). Some other books went with Atlanta over/under 7.5 wins with added juice on the under, but the Westgate gradually increased the Falcons' number to -7 (-130). The Falcons went over their total in Week 14 when they routed the Los Angeles Rams 42-14 to improve to 8-5 on the way to finishing second in the NFC during the regular season at 11-5.
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| WK | OPPONENT | LINE | O/U | PF | PA | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TAMPA BAY | -2.5 | 47 | 24 | 31 | L | L | O |
| 2 | at Oakland | +4 | 48 | 35 | 28 | W | W | O |
| 3 | at New Orleans | +3 | 45 | 45 | 32 | W | W | O |
| 4 | CAROLINA | +3 | 49 | 48 | 33 | W | W | O |
| 5 | at Denver | +4 | 44.5 | 23 | 16 | W | W | U |
| 6 | at Seattle | +7 | 45.5 | 24 | 26 | L | W | O |
| 7 | SAN DIEGO | -5 | 53.5 | 30 | 33 | L | L | O |
| 8 | GREEN BAY | -3 | 51 | 33 | 32 | W | L | O |
| 9 | at Tampa Bay | -5 | 49.5 | 43 | 28 | W | W | O |
| 10 | at Philadelphia | +1.5 | 49 | 15 | 24 | L | L | U |
| 11 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 12 | ARIZONA | -4 | 49 | 38 | 19 | W | W | O |
| 13 | KANSAS CITY | -5 | 50 | 28 | 29 | L | L | O |
| 14 | at Los Angeles | -5 | 44 | 42 | 14 | W | W | O |
| 15 | SAN FRANCISCO | -14 | 51.5 | 41 | 13 | W | W | O |
| 16 | at Carolina | -3 | 49 | 33 | 16 | W | W | P |
| 17 | NEW ORLEANS | -7.5 | 59 | 38 | 32 | W | L | O |
| DIV | SEATTLE | -6.5 | 51.5 | 36 | 20 | W | W | O |
| CHAMP | GREEN BAY | -6 | 60.5 | 44 | 21 | W | W | O |
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[h=2]Regular season[/h]Record: 11-5 (No. 2 in the NFC to Dallas)
ATS record: 10-6 ATS (tied for fourth in the NFL ATS standings), net profit of 3.4 units
Over/unders: 13-2-1 with the over (No. 1 in the NFL), profit of 10.8 units with overs
Atlanta had an inauspicious start to the 2016 season as it lost 31-24 at home to Tampa Bay and saw its odds raised to 100-1 at the Westgate and 150-1 elsewhere, and the only teams with longer Super Bowl odds at the Westgate were San Francisco (1,000-1) and Cleveland (5,000-1). However, the Falcons won their next four games as underdogs at Oakland, at New Orleans, at home against Carolina and at Denver to take over first place in the NFC South. They lost at Seattle 26-24 in Week 6 but showed they could play with anyone as they covered as 7-point road underdogs and nearly got in potential game-winning field goal range, but there was a controversial no-call on pass interference by Seattle CB Richard Sherman.
The Falcons also lost to San Diego and Philadelphia to fall to 6-4 before their Week 11 bye but still remained the favorites to hold off the rest of the teams in the NFC South. They beat Arizona in Week 12 and lost to Kansas City in Week 13 to stand at 7-5 but then closed out the regular season with four straight victories to finish 11-5 and secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Falcons were consistently the best over team in the league, going over the total in the first four games of the season and 8-1 in the first nine games. Their last under was all the way back in Week 10 against the Eagles. Since their Week 11 bye, they're 7-0-1 with the over with the push coming in a 33-16 win over Carolina in Week 16 (over/under of 49 points).
Biggest win for bettors: Atlanta -3 at Carolina (Week 16)
There weren't a lot of games early in the season in which the public embraced the Falcons (especially since they played a lot of popular teams), but by Week 16 the public was all over them against the defending NFC champion Panthers, betting them from 2.5-point road favorites to the key number of -3 despite a lot of sharp action on Carolina (which was down to just the slimmest of playoff hopes). The public was rewarded for its support as the Falcons jumped out to a 13-0 lead and coasted to a relatively easy 33-16 victory.
Worst loss for bettors: Atlanta -7.5 vs. New Orleans (Week 17)
The very next week, the public was again all over the Falcons as they had already clinched the NFC South and needed one more victory to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. The public bet this from an opener of Atlanta -6.5, through the key number of 7, and it closed Atlanta -7.5. It didn't look like the number of points would matter as the Falcons jumped out to a 14-3 lead and led by as much as 38-13. However, the Saints scored 19 fourth-quarter points (13 in the final 2:47) to make the final score 38-32, as Atlanta bettors ended up having to tear up their tickets.
[h=2]Postseason[/h]Record: 2-0 (NFC champions)
ATS record: 2-0 ATS, 2 units of profit
Over/unders: 2-0 with the over, 2 units of profit
Even after earning the NFC's No. 2 seed, most people were still picking the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers or Seattle Seahawks to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. However, the Falcons routed the Seahawks 36-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in the divisional playoffs, and after the Packers took care of the Cowboys to give Atlanta the home field in the NFC Championship Game, the Falcons dominated the Packers 44-21 as 6-point home favorites to earn the trip to the Super Bowl. Both of Atlanta's playoff games also went over the totals.
[h=2]Splits and trends[/h]Atlanta as underdog
SU record: 4-2
ATS record: 5-1 for a net profit of 3.9 units
Over/under (as underdogs): 4-2 with the over
Atlanta is a 3-point underdog to New England in the Super Bowl. While the Patriots were only underdogs in two games all season, the Falcons were actually 'dogs on six occasions and excelled in the role at 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. In Weeks 2-5, they pulled out four straight upsets as they were underdogs at Oakland and New Orleans, home vs. Carolina and at Denver. They then lost 26-24 at Seattle, but covered as 7-point underdogs to keep their ATS road record perfect at 5-0. However, the last time they were an underdog in Week 10 at Philadelphia, the Falcons lost 24-15 as 1.5-point 'dogs. Still, that's a pretty impressive resume for an underdog. The Falcons were 4-2 with the over in those games, which looks pretty good, but keep in mind that it means they were 11-0-1 with overs when they were favored.
Atlanta away from home
Home record: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS (including playoffs)
Away record: 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS
Over/under (in away games): 5-2-1 with the over
Most people will think this is irrelevant because the Super Bowl is played at a neutral site, but a lot of handicappers (this is also true during March Madness) like to look at a team's road record to see how a team fares away from its home surroundings (after all, both teams do that at a neutral site). The Falcons actually performed better this season away from home at 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS, so their offense (and defense) have traveled well, and that bodes well for playing on the neutral field in Houston. The Falcons have a reputation as a better team at home, yet they were only 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season before sweeping their playoff games at home.
Trends that favor Atlanta
When it comes to Super Bowl betting trends, there are a lot more that point in the direction of the New England Patriots due to their big advantage in experience in playing in the big game. However, here are three that make it possible to make a case for fading the Patriots and taking the Falcons.
Yes, the tandem of coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady is 4-2 in Super Bowls, but most people aren't aware that the duo is 2-4 ATS. In addition to losing outright twice to the New York Giants, Belichick and Brady also didn't cover in their 32-29 win over Carolina in 2004 and 24-21 win over Philadelphia in 2005 as 7-point favorites both years. You'll hear a lot about "you'd be 42-6-2 ATS if you just picked the Super Bowl winner as the points seldom come into play," but those people don't point out that the Patriots are two of those exceptions.
The Patriots are 0-4 ATS as Super Bowl favorites. That's right, they were 14-point underdogs when they beat the Rams 20-17 in 2002 and 1-point 'dogs when they beat the Seahawks 28-24 in 2015. The aforementioned noncovers against the Panthers and Eagles and the two losses to the Giants were all as favorites. (Note: some people have the Patriots covering as 1-point favorites two years ago against the Seahawks, though I graded that game as a pick-em as the majority of books in Vegas closed at pick-em; however, if you want to still call the Pats the faves in that one, they're still only 1-4 ATS as Super Bowl faves.)
Underdogs are on a roll in recent Super Bowls as the Broncos beat the favored Panthers last year. Again, I'm counting the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl as a pick-em, and the three prior years were won by the Seahawks over the Broncos, Ravens over the 49ers, Giants over Patriots -- all outright winners as underdogs. In the past 14 years, underdogs are 11-3 ATS (11-4 ATS if counting the Seahawks as +1 two years ago).
[h=2]Game-by-game breakdown[/h]For those who want a closer look at all of the Falcons' games from this season, these are our betting recaps from each week:
Week 1 (wrong side): Atlanta (-2.5) in 31-24 home loss to Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers fell behind 10-3 but were up 17-13 by halftime and 31-13 with 5:12 left in the third quarter and then coasted to the upset. A lot of people are praising Jameis Winston and the Bucs' offense, specifically Charles Sims' 28-yard catch-and-run TD, but what I saw was a bunch of missed tackles and an Atlanta defense that was supposed to be improved but got run over at home.
Week 2 (easy cover): Atlanta (+4) in 35-28 win at Oakland
The Falcons never trailed by more than the spread (and only once by 4 points at 7-3), so they were clearly the right side. The Raiders had a chance to cover after tying the game 21-21, but the Falcons pulled away with two TDs. Oakland's tying TD came on a fourth-and-goal play that showed Jack Del Rio to be challenging Ron Rivera for the "Riverboat ___" moniker. The over 48 was in a little doubt after a scoreless first quarter, but these two defenses continue to get shredded and make these two clear over teams.
Week 3 (easy cover): Atlanta (+3) in 45-32 win at New Orleans
This looks like a rout -- and the Falcons led by as much as 35-17 -- but was closer to being a 50/50 result early in the game. The Saints took the opening drive 75 yards in 11 plays to lead 7-0 and forced a three-and-out by the Falcons; however, punt returner Tommylee Lewis muffed the punt when teammate De'Vante Harris collided with him and the ball was recovered by the Falcons at the Saints' 11-yard line. Three plays later, Tevin Coleman converted the gift into a 7-7 tie. It was tied again at 14-14 with 9:55 left in the second quarter, but the Falcons scored two TDs to pull away before halftime. Atlanta showed a balanced offense even with Julio Jones held to just one catch for 16 yards. Matt Ryan spread the ball around to eight different receivers, including TD passes to Devonta Freeman and Justin Hardy. Freeman also rushed for 155 yards, while Coleman was the ultimate fantasy vulture with three rushing TDs. The Falcons' defense allowed 32 points, but contributed to their own point total with Deion Jones' 90-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter.
Week 4 (easy cover): Atlanta (+3) in 48-33 home win over Carolina
The Falcons jumped all over the Panthers, leading 14-0 and 17-7 before the Panthers pulled within 17-10 by halftime. They then extended their lead to 34-10 with 13:19 left in the game before the fireworks really began as that was the start of a 40-point fourth quarter. The Falcons showed they can score on anyone, but the defense, while it stepped up on occasions during the first three quarters, still gives up too many points as the Panthers' offense didn't miss a beat with Derek Anderson after Cam Newton had to leave the game with a concussion.
Week 5 (easy cover): Atlanta (+4) in 23-16 road upset at Denver
The Falcons scored on a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive on their opening possession against the Broncos' vaunted defense and never looked back. Denver never got back within a TD until Brandon McManus' 45-yard FG with 14 seconds to play. Julio Jones didn't have 300 receiving yards this week as Atlanta's game plan was to use Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman underneath (and rightly so, and it helped Matt Ryan get sacked only twice). But more encouraging (since I have Falcons at 10-1 to win the division and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl) is that the defense continued to improve, though it did benefit from playing rookie Paxton Lynch, who was sacked six times.
Week 6 (50/50 result): Atlanta (+7) in 26-24 spread-covering road loss at Seattle
The Seahawks looked like the right side early, grabbing a 7-0 lead and then leading 17-3 at halftime, but the Falcons rallied and looked like the right side when they took a 24-17 lead late in the third quarter. The Falcons looked like the right side after taking a 24-17 lead by the end of the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks rallied (though a missed extra point by Steven Hauschka left them down 24-23 with 4:43 to play before Hauschka hit the game-winning FG with 1:57 to play). The battle of the Falcons' No. 1 offense vs. Seattle's No. 1 defense was a split decision. Both teams should be fine moving forward.
Week 7 (bad beat, right side loser): Atlanta (-6.5) losing 33-30 at home against San Diego
This wasn't the worst "Bad Beat" we've seen, but the Chargers have to feel great about being on the winning side of one of these. The Falcons led 27-10 in the second quarter and were still covering at 30-20 with 13:23 to play. The Chargers got in the back door with 5:59 to play on Melvin Gordon's 5-yard TD pass from Philip Rivers and then kept it going by tying the game on Josh Lambo's 33-yard FG with 18 seconds to play and then winning on his 42-yarder in overtime. Both teams continue to excel on offense (426 yards for San Diego to 386 for Atlanta) but can't be trusted to stop anyone, so they're both teams to look at with the over (Falcons are 6-1 with the over, Chargers 5-2).
Week 8 (wrong side): Atlanta (-3) in 33-32 noncovering home win against Green Bay
Falcons backers might argue that they had the right side as they pulled out the victory, but the fact is it's hard to cover as 3-point favorites when you never lead by more than a field goal -- and the Falcons' biggest leads were at 3-0 and 10-7 in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Packers led 21-13 in the second quarter and were never really in danger of not covering. Scoring slowed down in the third quarter, but there was never any doubt this game was going over the total of 51 points, and both teams should be avoided for under plays moving forward with the offenses clicking.
Week 9 (easy cover): Atlanta (-5) in 43-28 win at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers actually led 7-0 and 14-13, but the Falcons led 20-14 by halftime and took control in the third quarter before eventually leading 40-14 before the Bucs closed the gap in garbage time. There was also little doubt of the game going over 49.5 points. The Falcons' offense continues to dominate, though there is concern with the defense to hold opponents down, though this does make them a great over team.
Week 10 (wrong side): Atlanta (+1.5) in 24-15 loss at Philadelphia
The Eagles were mostly the right side (and the Massey-Peabody numbers seems to agree), but it wasn't until the final score that the Eagles led by more than a TD more than the spread. The Falcons stayed within 7-6 at halftime and 10-9 at the end of the third quarter and even took a 15-13 lead on Taylor Gabriel's 76-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan. Julio Jones also dropped an easy pass that would have extended another drive. But give credit to the return of the Eagles' defense in holding down the league's No. 1 offense, and Ryan Mathews finally stepped up for the offense with two TDs and a two-point conversion.
Week 12 (easy cover): Atlanta (-4) in 38-19 home win over Arizona
While the Cardinals stuck around in the first half and led 7-0 and 10-7, their defense never looked like it would be able to contain the Falcons, and they pulled away in the second half. Arizona mostly took away Julio Jones (four catches, 35 yards), but the Falcons spread the wealth with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both running for TDs and eight players catching passes from Matt Ryan. And it was scary how easily Taylor Gabriel ran through the Cardinals' defense on his two TD catch-and-runs. The Atlanta defense doesn't get much credit, but it did a decent job of containing David Johnson (58 rushing yards). He did gain another 103 yards receiving, but that's preferable to giving up big plays to the Cardinals' receivers. In that regard, the Falcons' D did its job in protecting its lead.
Week 13 (wrong side): Atlanta (-5) in 29-28 home loss to Kansas City
Atlanta money-line bettors feel they took a Bad Beat as the Falcons had just gone ahead 28-27 and were trying for two when Eric Berry picked off a Matt Ryan pass and returned it the other way for a two-point defensive conversion. However, the Chiefs were the right side most of the game as they led 27-16 in the fourth quarter before the Falcons rallied. Besides, there's no guarantee that the Chiefs wouldn't have marched to the winning score anyway. The Chiefs got the win but also had another defensive TD (also by Berry), and Albert Wilson had a 55-yard TD run on a fake punt, so we could argue that the Falcons (who led 32-17 in first downs) played better most of the game except for a few key big plays.
Week 14 (easy cover): Atlanta (-5) in 42-14 win at Los Angeles
The Falcons dominated from the opening kickoff, which the Rams fumbled to set up a 3-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan to Justin Hardy just 10 seconds into the game, and the Falcons were off and running. Atlanta's offense hardly missed Julio Jones as eight players caught passes from Ryan for two more touchdown passes. The defense added two more TDs as Deion Jones had a pick-six and Vic Beasley Jr. had a strip-sack/fumble return against an overmatched Jared Goff. It's scary for other NFC teams if the Atlanta defense continues to improve.
Week 15 (easy cover): Atlanta (-14) in 41-13 home rout of San Francisco
It's hard to be clearly the right side when laying two touchdowns, but the Falcons jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and coasted from there. Atlanta continued to show a balanced, explosive offense even without star WR Julio Jones as Devonta Freeman ran for 139 and three TDs and Matt Ryan passed for 286 yards and two more TDs.
Week 16 (easy cover): Atlanta (-3) in 33-16 win at Carolina
The Falcons jumped out to a 13-0 lead and coasted from there as the baton was passed in the NFC South from last year's champion Carolina to Atlanta. Julio Jones was limited with his toe injury, but Matt Ryan continued to spread the ball around, including TD passes to backup tight ends Joshua Perkins and D.J. Tialavea. Tevin Coleman had 135 yards from scrimmage and added the other TD on a 55-yard run with 13:19 left in the fourth quarter that removed any doubt as far as the spread winner (though the game did push on the closing total of 49 points). This was the third game in a row that the defense allowed 16 points or fewer. Granted, the opponents were the Rams, 49ers and Panthers, but the Atlanta defense has continued to improve in the second half to the point that all the pressure isn't on the offense to win games.
Week 17 (bad beat, right side but didn't cover): Atlanta (-7.5) in 38-32 noncovering home win over New Orleans
Atlanta backers have been used to the Falcons jumping out to early leads all season and coasting to victories -- and this didn't look any different. The Falcons scored on their first drive on Matt Ryan's 7-yard TD pass to Tevin Coleman and, after the Saints responded with a 74-yard drive that ended in a field goal, Devonta Freeman romped 75 yards for a TD and a 14-3 lead. They extended that to 35-13 by halftime and led 38-13 heading to the fourth quarter as they were starting to celebrate clinching the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Saints responded by scoring 19 unanswered point in the fourth quarter, with the final score coming on Drew Brees' 3-yard TD pass to Travaris Cadet with just 39 seconds left to get the back-door cover at 38-32. Before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter, the Falcons dominated on both offense and defense and looked ready for the playoffs.
Divisional playoffs (easy cover): Atlanta (-6.5) in 36-20 win over Seattle
This started out looking like a 50/50 game as the Seahawks grabbed a 7-0 lead on Russell Wilson's 7-yard TD pass to Jimmy Graham that capped an 8-minute, 34-second opening drive, and then they took a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. However, the game turned when a holding penalty on an 80-yard Devin Hester punt return made the Seahawks start their drive inside their own 10-yard line, and then Wilson was tripped up by one of his own offensive linemen and fell in the end zone for a safety. That started a 19-point unanswered run by the Falcons as they took control of the game and led 26-10 midway through the third quarter. A Steven Hauschka field goal barely stemmed the tide as Atlanta added another 10 points to pull away to a 36-13 before giving up a garbage touchdown late (though it was Doug Baldwin's 31-yard TD catch from Wilson that put the game over the total of 51.5 points with 3:21 to play). The Falcons played a complete game with an explosive, balanced offensive attack and a defense that made adjustments after the opening drive and played more like Seattle than the Seahawks did.
Conference championship (easy cover): Atlanta (-6) in 44-21 home win over Green Bay
The Falcons went 80 yards in 13 plays on the opening drive of the game to take a 7-0 lead and were never ahead by less than the spread again. The Packers took their opening drive to the Atlanta 23 but then stalled, and Mason Crosby missed a 41-yard FG attempt. The Falcons went up 10-0 on a Matt Bryant FG, but it looked like the Packers were going to get right back in the game as they drove 64 yards in just seven plays, and fullback Aaron Ripkowski was dragging defenders on a first-down run and looked like the Packers were going to have first-and-goal when Jalen Collins stripped the ball and recovered it in the end zone. That was the last time the outcome looked in doubt as the Falcons marched 80 yards in nine plays with Matt Ryan's 14-yard TD run putting them up 17-0 and then adding a TD pass to Julio Jones with three seconds left in the second quarter to go up 24-0 at halftime. That improved first-half favorites to 6-3 ATS in the postseason even though it stayed under the first-half total of 30.5 points.
The domination continued in the second half as the Packers went three-and-out on their first possession and the Falcons scored again on Jones' 73-yard catch-and-run TD pass from Ryan to lead 31-0 before the Packers finally got on the scoreboard with 9:19 left in the third quarter. That finally gave hope that the game could reach the playoff-record-high over/under of 60.5 points. The teams traded another two TDs in the third quarter and another two in the fourth quarter to push it over at 44-21 on Aaron Rodgers' 1-yard TD pass to Jared Cook with 6:43 to play.
The Packers outscored the Falcons 21-20 in the second half, but the Falcons covered as 4-point second-half underdogs. That dropped second-half faves to 6-2-1 ATS in the postseason. The Falcons played a complete game while gaining 493 yards on offense and shutting out the Packers in the first half and until the game was well in hand. The only possible criticism of the Falcons was their running game wasn't as explosive as usual with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and they struggled running inside. It hardly slowed them down this week, but we'll see if it hurts them against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
