"Sunday, Feb. 5, 6:30 PM EST. The NFL is difficult because the lines are extremely tight and in-game variance is in play so often. After winning in eight of our first 10 years of documented plays, we are about to be in the red for the third straight year with this year being our worst yet in terms of units lost. In our defense, Vegas also endured a horrible NFL season, as the public won 61% of its wagers this season, which is unbelievable. Favorites of 6½ or more went 45-25-1 against the spread this season, which is simply astonishing. As a contrarian better for the most part, when favorites are hitting at a high clip, we are not going to get to the front but it’s not going to prevent us from sticking to our guns and going after the value."
"Bill Belichick is in a class by himself while Tom Brady is one of the more intelligent QB’s to ever play this game. Brady’s football IQ might even be higher than his overall IQ and together with Belichick; the pair have put together Hall of Fame numbers than may never be matched again. Since 2000, Belichick has led the Patriots to 14 AFC East division titles and 11 appearances in the AFC Championship Game. Since then, he has coached the Patriots to seven Super Bowl appearances. His teams won Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX, and XLIX while losing Super Bowls XLII and XLVI. Belichick's appearance in the upcoming Super Bowl will break the tie of six Super Bowls as a head coach that is presently shared with Don Shula, as well as being a record 10th participation in a Super Bowl in any capacity which will overtake the mark of nine that he shares with Dan Reeves. Furthermore, this is the Patriots' ninth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history which is the most of any team. He is also the only head coach in NFL history to win three Super Bowl championships in a four-year span."
"The Patriots went 5–11 in the 2000 regular season in Belichick’s first year and missed the playoffs. To date, this is Belichick's only losing season with the Patriots, and also the only year in which Tom Brady did not start at quarterback in any regular season games. In Brady's 15 seasons as a starter, the Patriots have earned seven trips to the Super Bowl, the most for any quarterback in history, winning four titles. Brady has been awarded three Super Bowl MVP’s and two league MVP awards has been selected to 12 Pro Bowls and has led his team to more division titles (14) than any other quarterback in NFL history. As of the end of the 2016 season, Brady is fourth all-time in career passing yards, fourth in career touchdown passes, and third in career passer rating. His career postseason record is 24–9. He has won more playoff games than any other quarterback, and appeared in more playoff games than any player at any position. His 207 combined regular season and postseason wins are also the most of any quarterback in NFL history. Yes indeed, we can understand why someone would want to get behind the Patriots on Sunday against a QB and coach that will both make their first Super Bowl appearances."
"Matt Ryan is 3-4 in his career in the playoffs. Atlanta’s head coach, Mike Quinn is in his second year after missing the playoffs last year. Atlanta will now make its second Super Bowl appearance in their 51-year history with their last appearance occurring way back in 1998, where they would lose to the Broncos, 34-19. Coaching, experience, pedigree and familiarity absolutely favors the Patriots and many people learned in last year’s Super Bowl between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton that you should not bet against those things. Unfortunately for the Patriots, all those things do not play a single down of football and Matt Ryan is not Cam Newton."
"There are two weeks between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl and so it is really easy for those that are doing this for the first time to lose focus and pay more attention to the festivities around them than the actual task at hand. First time players want to be part of the fun, as it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity and they don’t want to “miss out”. For the most part, they want to hang out with friends and family and go for dinners and drinks and stay out late as opposed to practicing hard, studying harder and then returning to their hotel room early for a good night’s sleep. The team that understands that this is not a vacation and treats it as such will have a significant edge over the opposition. Carolina paid the price last year and the Falcons addressed it this year. This is a completely focused underdog folks and they’re damn good too."
"There’s a reason that Falcons QB is nicknamed “Matty Ice” and it’s not because he’s always smiling. The Falcons put away the Seahawks early and swiftly and did a worse number on the Packers the following week in their two playoff games thus far with Matt Ryan carving up both defenses. Green Bay’s defense was carved up plenty of other times this season but Seattle’s was not and Ryan made them look weak. New England defeated one of the worst playoff teams in history when they got by Houston in its first playoff game this season. Houston gave the Patriots a real scare and if it had an adequate QB, an upset likely would have occurred. The final score does not reflect the performance, as New England looked to be in trouble. New England would subsequently go on to beat Pittsburgh handily but Le'Veon Bell was injured early, which took away a ton of stuff that the Steelers planned on doing and Mike Tomlin did not have a plan B in place. While we take nothing away from the Patriots, let’s not ignore that Bell was injured early and that Ben Roethisberger was banged up and a fraction of his former self practically the entire year. The Falcons meanwhile, made the hottest QB in the game, Aaron Rodgers look average, they made Russell Wilson look bad and they made the Seahawks defense look weak too. To get here, one must give the Falcons greater accolades."
"Prior to their first playoff game this year, the Patriots last played a playoff team way back 11 weeks ago in Week 10 when they lost at home to Seahawks on a Monday night. The only other playoff team they played this season was Pittsburgh back in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Falcons played four playoff teams and went 2-2 but they could have easily went 4-0, as they lost by one and two points respectively and the 29-28 loss to the Chiefs was as bizarre as it gets. The point is that the Falcons navigated through a much tougher schedule than the Patriots and if it means anything at all, it was a rare week when the Falcons didn’t put up 35 points or more."
"In terms of personnel on the field, Tom Brady is 40 years old while Matt Ryan is in his prime. The Patriots have to deal with a great passing game and a great running game and cannot focus only on Julio Jones (ala Antonio Brown) because Ryan has 12 other receivers he can go to at any time. That said, Belichick will absolutely have to pay real close attention to Jones and has to be in fear of Jones’ height and speed. Belichick has dealt with this before and his strategy when facing a great balanced offense has always been to try and take away one or the other. Frankly, we’re not sure which one he’ll try and take away and chances are he won’t be successful anyway. New England’s defense has been described as “bend but doesn’t break”, which means what? That’s a polite way of saying a team gives up a ton of yards but the opposition usually doesn’t punch it in. Matt Ryan will punch it in."
"Every story you read about this game will pound into your head about how weak the Falcons defense has been this season. The Falcons allowed an average of 25.4 points per game on the season, 27th in the league. If they win, that would represent the most points per game allowed by any Super Bowl champion. To that, all we can say is that we hope the Patriots score 25 points because if Atlanta holds’ them to 25, we’ll cash our ticket. The media loves to blow things out of proportion but that “weak defense” may not be as weak as advertised. They held Aaron Rodgers down and did the same to the Seahawks. The Falcons defense might be peaking at precisely the right time and they are 100% quicker than New England’s defense. They swarm the ball as soon as it’s caught and they can also get to Brady with their quickness and one great pass rusher in Vic Beasley. Defenses this young aren’t supposed to end their season in the Super Bowl. The Falcons start four rookies, if you count slot cornerback Brian Poole and his nine starts. They start four second-year players, including NFL sack leader Vic Beasley. The Falcons’ defense got better as the season went on and that’s an overlooked reason why they’re in the Super Bowl. New England’s defense is “meh”."
"The stories this week are all about the Patriots. Yeah, we all know they’re dying to run it up, shout to the sky and conquer their arch-rival so embarrassingly that reputations will be ruined and history will be rewritten. It’s also Brady vs. Goodell - one of the greatest players in NFL history going for his record-tying fifth Super Bowl title in a season he began under Goodell-ordered suspension. For the Patriots, this is about revenge, it’s about justifying an entire era of dominance, it’s about the frustrations of the long legal slog Brady went through (and ultimately lost) trying to deny Goodell’s right to suspend him for the “Deflategate” scandal and it’s all channeled into this upcoming football game. All the stories, hype and history could influence anyone into taking the Patriots here and we have to admit, we almost got caught up in it too. However, after looking at everything, we trust the wrong side is favored based on performance and results. If you took every single player on Atlanta and put them in a Patriots’ uniform and vice versa, we can almost assure that group would be favored by six points or thereabouts. Atlanta is the better team taking back a price or points and they actually might benefit a little from all the attention that surrounds the relationship between the Patriots and the NFL commissioner. The media wants to talk to Bill Belichick or Tom Brady while the Falcons are the forgotten team. By Sunday night, nobody will be forgetting about the Falcons anymore. Atlanta gets the outright call but we're still going to split this wager up into two."
GL whichever side you are on. Enjoy the Super Bowl.
"Bill Belichick is in a class by himself while Tom Brady is one of the more intelligent QB’s to ever play this game. Brady’s football IQ might even be higher than his overall IQ and together with Belichick; the pair have put together Hall of Fame numbers than may never be matched again. Since 2000, Belichick has led the Patriots to 14 AFC East division titles and 11 appearances in the AFC Championship Game. Since then, he has coached the Patriots to seven Super Bowl appearances. His teams won Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX, and XLIX while losing Super Bowls XLII and XLVI. Belichick's appearance in the upcoming Super Bowl will break the tie of six Super Bowls as a head coach that is presently shared with Don Shula, as well as being a record 10th participation in a Super Bowl in any capacity which will overtake the mark of nine that he shares with Dan Reeves. Furthermore, this is the Patriots' ninth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history which is the most of any team. He is also the only head coach in NFL history to win three Super Bowl championships in a four-year span."
"The Patriots went 5–11 in the 2000 regular season in Belichick’s first year and missed the playoffs. To date, this is Belichick's only losing season with the Patriots, and also the only year in which Tom Brady did not start at quarterback in any regular season games. In Brady's 15 seasons as a starter, the Patriots have earned seven trips to the Super Bowl, the most for any quarterback in history, winning four titles. Brady has been awarded three Super Bowl MVP’s and two league MVP awards has been selected to 12 Pro Bowls and has led his team to more division titles (14) than any other quarterback in NFL history. As of the end of the 2016 season, Brady is fourth all-time in career passing yards, fourth in career touchdown passes, and third in career passer rating. His career postseason record is 24–9. He has won more playoff games than any other quarterback, and appeared in more playoff games than any player at any position. His 207 combined regular season and postseason wins are also the most of any quarterback in NFL history. Yes indeed, we can understand why someone would want to get behind the Patriots on Sunday against a QB and coach that will both make their first Super Bowl appearances."
"Matt Ryan is 3-4 in his career in the playoffs. Atlanta’s head coach, Mike Quinn is in his second year after missing the playoffs last year. Atlanta will now make its second Super Bowl appearance in their 51-year history with their last appearance occurring way back in 1998, where they would lose to the Broncos, 34-19. Coaching, experience, pedigree and familiarity absolutely favors the Patriots and many people learned in last year’s Super Bowl between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton that you should not bet against those things. Unfortunately for the Patriots, all those things do not play a single down of football and Matt Ryan is not Cam Newton."
"There are two weeks between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl and so it is really easy for those that are doing this for the first time to lose focus and pay more attention to the festivities around them than the actual task at hand. First time players want to be part of the fun, as it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity and they don’t want to “miss out”. For the most part, they want to hang out with friends and family and go for dinners and drinks and stay out late as opposed to practicing hard, studying harder and then returning to their hotel room early for a good night’s sleep. The team that understands that this is not a vacation and treats it as such will have a significant edge over the opposition. Carolina paid the price last year and the Falcons addressed it this year. This is a completely focused underdog folks and they’re damn good too."
"There’s a reason that Falcons QB is nicknamed “Matty Ice” and it’s not because he’s always smiling. The Falcons put away the Seahawks early and swiftly and did a worse number on the Packers the following week in their two playoff games thus far with Matt Ryan carving up both defenses. Green Bay’s defense was carved up plenty of other times this season but Seattle’s was not and Ryan made them look weak. New England defeated one of the worst playoff teams in history when they got by Houston in its first playoff game this season. Houston gave the Patriots a real scare and if it had an adequate QB, an upset likely would have occurred. The final score does not reflect the performance, as New England looked to be in trouble. New England would subsequently go on to beat Pittsburgh handily but Le'Veon Bell was injured early, which took away a ton of stuff that the Steelers planned on doing and Mike Tomlin did not have a plan B in place. While we take nothing away from the Patriots, let’s not ignore that Bell was injured early and that Ben Roethisberger was banged up and a fraction of his former self practically the entire year. The Falcons meanwhile, made the hottest QB in the game, Aaron Rodgers look average, they made Russell Wilson look bad and they made the Seahawks defense look weak too. To get here, one must give the Falcons greater accolades."
"Prior to their first playoff game this year, the Patriots last played a playoff team way back 11 weeks ago in Week 10 when they lost at home to Seahawks on a Monday night. The only other playoff team they played this season was Pittsburgh back in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Falcons played four playoff teams and went 2-2 but they could have easily went 4-0, as they lost by one and two points respectively and the 29-28 loss to the Chiefs was as bizarre as it gets. The point is that the Falcons navigated through a much tougher schedule than the Patriots and if it means anything at all, it was a rare week when the Falcons didn’t put up 35 points or more."
"In terms of personnel on the field, Tom Brady is 40 years old while Matt Ryan is in his prime. The Patriots have to deal with a great passing game and a great running game and cannot focus only on Julio Jones (ala Antonio Brown) because Ryan has 12 other receivers he can go to at any time. That said, Belichick will absolutely have to pay real close attention to Jones and has to be in fear of Jones’ height and speed. Belichick has dealt with this before and his strategy when facing a great balanced offense has always been to try and take away one or the other. Frankly, we’re not sure which one he’ll try and take away and chances are he won’t be successful anyway. New England’s defense has been described as “bend but doesn’t break”, which means what? That’s a polite way of saying a team gives up a ton of yards but the opposition usually doesn’t punch it in. Matt Ryan will punch it in."
"Every story you read about this game will pound into your head about how weak the Falcons defense has been this season. The Falcons allowed an average of 25.4 points per game on the season, 27th in the league. If they win, that would represent the most points per game allowed by any Super Bowl champion. To that, all we can say is that we hope the Patriots score 25 points because if Atlanta holds’ them to 25, we’ll cash our ticket. The media loves to blow things out of proportion but that “weak defense” may not be as weak as advertised. They held Aaron Rodgers down and did the same to the Seahawks. The Falcons defense might be peaking at precisely the right time and they are 100% quicker than New England’s defense. They swarm the ball as soon as it’s caught and they can also get to Brady with their quickness and one great pass rusher in Vic Beasley. Defenses this young aren’t supposed to end their season in the Super Bowl. The Falcons start four rookies, if you count slot cornerback Brian Poole and his nine starts. They start four second-year players, including NFL sack leader Vic Beasley. The Falcons’ defense got better as the season went on and that’s an overlooked reason why they’re in the Super Bowl. New England’s defense is “meh”."
"The stories this week are all about the Patriots. Yeah, we all know they’re dying to run it up, shout to the sky and conquer their arch-rival so embarrassingly that reputations will be ruined and history will be rewritten. It’s also Brady vs. Goodell - one of the greatest players in NFL history going for his record-tying fifth Super Bowl title in a season he began under Goodell-ordered suspension. For the Patriots, this is about revenge, it’s about justifying an entire era of dominance, it’s about the frustrations of the long legal slog Brady went through (and ultimately lost) trying to deny Goodell’s right to suspend him for the “Deflategate” scandal and it’s all channeled into this upcoming football game. All the stories, hype and history could influence anyone into taking the Patriots here and we have to admit, we almost got caught up in it too. However, after looking at everything, we trust the wrong side is favored based on performance and results. If you took every single player on Atlanta and put them in a Patriots’ uniform and vice versa, we can almost assure that group would be favored by six points or thereabouts. Atlanta is the better team taking back a price or points and they actually might benefit a little from all the attention that surrounds the relationship between the Patriots and the NFL commissioner. The media wants to talk to Bill Belichick or Tom Brady while the Falcons are the forgotten team. By Sunday night, nobody will be forgetting about the Falcons anymore. Atlanta gets the outright call but we're still going to split this wager up into two."
GL whichever side you are on. Enjoy the Super Bowl.
