[h=1]Best futures bets for Super Bowl LII[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Super Bowl LI is in the books, and it's time for our annual look at next year's Super Bowl.
These types of columns have earned the moniker "way-too-early" at ESPN.com, but we've shown that we're able to find live long shots on the futures board even before the offseason starts -- giving us a jump on the competition while the value is at its peak.
Last year, I tabbed the Atlanta Falcons as my value bet for Super Bowl LI, and that worked out pretty well (even though the New England Patriots won 34-28 in overtime as Atlanta backers should have been able to hedge out a profit). But it's not the first time I've locked onto a good number early, as I gave out the Seattle Seahawks at 12-1 before the 2013-14 NFL season, and the San Francisco Giants at 20-1 before the 2014 MLB season. Those more than make up for the "losses" on the New Orleans Saints at 20-1 in 2014-15 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 20-1 in 2015-16 (though I still maintain the Steelers were a great bet, as they had the Denver Broncos on the ropes in the divisional playoffs, even without Antonio Brown, until a fourth-string running back fumbled in the fourth quarter).
Here's where the odds for Super Bowl LII currently stand.
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</tfoot></aside>Without further ado, let's get to my top value bet for Super Bowl LII.
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[h=2]New York Giants (20-1)[/h]I really expected the Giants, after they had such a good season and especially with them hailing from a huge market with a ton of fans, would be closer to 10-1 or 12-1 in the futures books, so I see them as the best value bet on the board at 20-1. The Giants' defense really improved this past season after an offseason spending spree, and it paid off as their defense was No. 10 in yards allowed and, even better, No. 2 in points allowed (to the Patriots) at 17.8 points per game. The offense only ranked No. 19 in yards gained, but I have confidence in Eli Manning being able to make a run if he gets them back to the playoffs, as he has plenty of weapons to work with. While I don't blame the infamous Miami trip for the Giants' early playoff exit, I just hope Odell Beckham Jr. and his buddies learn from the experience (like he keeps insisting) and come back even more focused.
The biggest obstacle for the G-Men is the Dallas Cowboys, but this past season I hung a lot of hopes on the Falcons because they had beaten the previously undefeated Carolina Panthers in Week 16 of the 2014-15 season. Now I have a Giants team that beat the Cowboys not once, but twice this past season. Anticipating a little regression from the Cowboys' 14-2 record, the Giants just need to be more consistent in the rest of their schedule to have a shot at a first-round bye -- and that'll make this 20-1 look even better.
[h=2]Other potential plays[/h]
Cincinnati Bengals (40-1)
I always like to give an alternative pick from the other conference, and Cincinnati looks like the best AFC value play to me. The Bengals certainly fell apart this year at 6-9-1, but they're not that far from being a contender. Most of the same players are still around from when they went 12-4 two years ago, plus they'll get A.J. Green back after he missed the second half of the season.
Atlanta Falcons (12-1)
I almost wheeled back and took the Falcons as my value pick again this year, but 12-1 didn't seem quite juicy enough.
I don't see many other possible plays on the board, even among the teams at 100-1 or higher (and remember, I bet the Falcons at 100-1-- but I picked them when they were 40-1 and only got them at inflated odds because so many other people ignored them, and I would maintain that their "true odds" were closer to the 40-1 opener). The only other teams that I would consider buying a ticket on would be the Tennessee Titans (40-1) or Detroit Lions (60-1), as they should contend for playoff spots and each has room to improve.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Super Bowl LI is in the books, and it's time for our annual look at next year's Super Bowl.
These types of columns have earned the moniker "way-too-early" at ESPN.com, but we've shown that we're able to find live long shots on the futures board even before the offseason starts -- giving us a jump on the competition while the value is at its peak.
Last year, I tabbed the Atlanta Falcons as my value bet for Super Bowl LI, and that worked out pretty well (even though the New England Patriots won 34-28 in overtime as Atlanta backers should have been able to hedge out a profit). But it's not the first time I've locked onto a good number early, as I gave out the Seattle Seahawks at 12-1 before the 2013-14 NFL season, and the San Francisco Giants at 20-1 before the 2014 MLB season. Those more than make up for the "losses" on the New Orleans Saints at 20-1 in 2014-15 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 20-1 in 2015-16 (though I still maintain the Steelers were a great bet, as they had the Denver Broncos on the ropes in the divisional playoffs, even without Antonio Brown, until a fourth-string running back fumbled in the fourth quarter).
Here's where the odds for Super Bowl LII currently stand.
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| TEAM | ODDS | TEAM | ODDS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | 5-1 | Miami | 30-1 | |
| Dallas | 8-1 | Houston | 40-1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 10-1 | Cincinnati | 40-1 | |
| Atlanta | 12-1 | Washington | 40-1 | |
| Seattle | 12-1 | Philadelphia | 40-1 | |
| Green Bay | 12-1 | Tennessee | 40-1 | |
| Denver | 16-1 | Detroit | 60-1 | |
| Kansas City | 18-1 | Buffalo | 60-1 | |
| Carolina | 20-1 | New Orleans | 60-1 | |
| Arizona | 20-1 | Jacksonville | 60-1 | |
| Oakland | 20-1 | Los Angeles (A) | 60-1 | |
| Minnesota | 20-1 | New York (A) | 100-1 | |
| Indianapolis | 20-1 | Chicago | 100-1 | |
| Baltimore | 20-1 | Los Angeles (N) | 100-1 | |
| New York (N) | 20-1 | San Francisco | 300-1 | |
| Tampa Bay | 30-1 | Cleveland | 300-1 | |
| Odds, as of Feb. 5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |
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[h=2]New York Giants (20-1)[/h]I really expected the Giants, after they had such a good season and especially with them hailing from a huge market with a ton of fans, would be closer to 10-1 or 12-1 in the futures books, so I see them as the best value bet on the board at 20-1. The Giants' defense really improved this past season after an offseason spending spree, and it paid off as their defense was No. 10 in yards allowed and, even better, No. 2 in points allowed (to the Patriots) at 17.8 points per game. The offense only ranked No. 19 in yards gained, but I have confidence in Eli Manning being able to make a run if he gets them back to the playoffs, as he has plenty of weapons to work with. While I don't blame the infamous Miami trip for the Giants' early playoff exit, I just hope Odell Beckham Jr. and his buddies learn from the experience (like he keeps insisting) and come back even more focused.
The biggest obstacle for the G-Men is the Dallas Cowboys, but this past season I hung a lot of hopes on the Falcons because they had beaten the previously undefeated Carolina Panthers in Week 16 of the 2014-15 season. Now I have a Giants team that beat the Cowboys not once, but twice this past season. Anticipating a little regression from the Cowboys' 14-2 record, the Giants just need to be more consistent in the rest of their schedule to have a shot at a first-round bye -- and that'll make this 20-1 look even better.
[h=2]Other potential plays[/h]
Cincinnati Bengals (40-1)
I always like to give an alternative pick from the other conference, and Cincinnati looks like the best AFC value play to me. The Bengals certainly fell apart this year at 6-9-1, but they're not that far from being a contender. Most of the same players are still around from when they went 12-4 two years ago, plus they'll get A.J. Green back after he missed the second half of the season.
I almost wheeled back and took the Falcons as my value pick again this year, but 12-1 didn't seem quite juicy enough.
I don't see many other possible plays on the board, even among the teams at 100-1 or higher (and remember, I bet the Falcons at 100-1-- but I picked them when they were 40-1 and only got them at inflated odds because so many other people ignored them, and I would maintain that their "true odds" were closer to the 40-1 opener). The only other teams that I would consider buying a ticket on would be the Tennessee Titans (40-1) or Detroit Lions (60-1), as they should contend for playoff spots and each has room to improve.
