I usually don't like to write analysis - I like to make videos, because I am awful in writing, but I have 3 analysis today. I hope it can help you somehow. Good Luck!
NY Rangers vs Anaheim Ducks
My Projected Lines and the odds
I have projected, that NY Rangers will have around 70% of chance to win this game and my projected odds on Rangers are set at 1.41. Bookmakers give me Rangers at around 1.71 and odds went up during the day. I would expect, that I get +$41 for my risked $100 on Rangers. But bookmakers give me much more (+$71 for my risked $100). This is why there is a mathematical value based on my predictive model.
Match Up
NY Rangers are much better team on the road, but they finally break the ice in the last game versus Calgary after two consecutive losses at home. Rangers are 33-19 to the season with 3.4 goals per game and 2.7 allowed. They are also very good against Pacific teams (27-9) and they also have very good record versus Anaheim. They beat them in 4 straight meetings and also in 5 out of last 6 games at home. Note also, that there is a correlation between city distances and performance, Anaheim is playing on other side of a country and when those teams met in the past home team won 8 out of last 11 games.
Anaheim Ducks are on a long road trip on the East cost and they didn’t start well. They lost both first games on this trip and I think those two games were easy ones. They lost to Florida and Tampa Bay, both teams that have the record below 0.500. Today, they will face NY Rangers, a team that is 8th best in the league. Anaheim is not good road team. They are just 11-17 on the road where they score only 2.2 goal per game. John Gibson, who will start for them is just 6-11 on the road this season.
Reason for pick
Anaheim is on a long road trip and they already lost first two games. Today they will face Rangers team, that won 2 straight games and they also have very good record against Anaheim. This is also situation when home team usually wins. I am taking better team and the pick is also supported by math model.
Play Rangers -140
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Calgary Flames
My Projected Lines and the odds
I think that around 85% of all people will be on Pittsburgh today. Sports bettors and fans love them and despite they will probably be on them, odds still dropped on Calgary during the day and there are couple of reasons, why Calgary could be a good underdog play tonight. My math model has Calgary at 2.32 (+132) and gives them around 43.2% of chance. Yes, this is still less than 50%, but what I expect is that if I risk $100, I want to get back +$132 of profit. Bookmakers have Calgary at around +180 (2.80) and I get around $50 more than I would expect. If I play $100 on Calgary and if they win, I will get back +$180. And because of that, there is some value on Calgary if I play them. But let’s see if there are other reasons to back Calgary.
Match Up
Pittsburgh is playing great hockey, especially at home and especially with Matt Murray in the net. He is 11-2 at home with SV% of 0.928, which is great. But we must take into account couple of things here with Pittsburgh. They will play without Evgeni Malking, their superstar and they will also play without Carl Hagelin. So, those are two important players for them. They also miss couple of other players too. yes, they played couple of games without Malkin already and they also beat St Louis the other day on the road, but the question is what are the chances. And my model has Pittsburgh at around 56.8%, which is much less than from bookmakers.
Calgary on the other side is playing much better lately. They won 3 out of last 4 games and they also won 2 straight games versus Pittsburgh. Calgary will start with Chad Johnson, who started this season well, but then he started to struggle, but one thing he do well is playing on the road. He is 7-6 on the road with SV% of 0.927.
Reason for pick
I like Calgary simply because I think that odds are little bit to big on them. With Malkin out, with Hagelin out, with Sheary out and with Sprong and Pouliott, who are already out, there will be definitely less depth for Pittsburgh. Calgary outplayed other teams by +5.2 shots per game in last 5 games and they also score 3.2 goals per game in that period, so they are pretty hot offensively. If we compare those numbers with Pittsburgh numbers - Pittsburgh score 3 goals per game and +0 shots per game in last five games. Calgary is is definitely nice underdog try today.
Play Calgary +180
Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes
My Projected Lines and the odds
Public will be on Washington today, but this is something we all expect, but still Washington wins more than not. Odds droped little bit on Carolina, but still my projected numbers have Carolina with only 27.1% of chance to win this game. If I turn those chances into the odds, I get Carolina at 3.68 and Washington at 1.37. Bookmakers give offer Washington at around 1.55 and because of that I have a value on them.
Match Up
Carolina Hurricanes are very strong home team, where they play their best ice hockey, but when they play on the road, they are just 7-20. They score 2.4 goals per game and allow 3.1 goals on the road. I would probably not take Washington for this low price if Carolina would start with Cam Ward, but they will probably start with Eddie Lack, who will come back after injury and he didn’t play well so far this season. His record is 1-3 and SV% is jut 0.856. Today he will face the best team in NHL and they already played one game in Washington. Washington beat Carolina 2 weeks ago by 6-1.
Washington on the other side is playing great ice hockey, they don’t have any injuries and they just beat Los Angeles Kings by 5-0. Today, they will start with their best goalie Braden Holtby, who is 17-6 at home this season with SV% of 0.933. Not much to say about Washington here. They are a machine at home with the record of 21-6 where they score 3.4 goals per game and allow only 1.7 goals per game.
Reason for pick
I take Washington, because they are the best team in NHL right now and they are really good at home. They already beat this Carolina team by 6-1 couple of days ago and today, they should have little bit easier job, because Carolina will start with their backup goalie, who was injured and this is his first NHL game after the injury. He played 5 games this season and he was pretty bad in those games. Today he will face one of the best offensive teams in NHL. Carolina is good at home, but they are really poor on the road, especailly when they play against good defensive teams and when the total is set at 5. In this situation, they are just 2-12. My projected numbers also give big chance to Washington in this game.
Play Washington (-1.5) +150
