New England really Good or really lucky

JohnnyMags · Feb 8, 2017

Everyone is touting New England Best franchise ever, Brady, Belichick best of all time. Five Super Bowl wins is quite an accomplishment, not to mention 4 other trips to the bowl and finishing second.
Luck however is something that is truly shinning on the team from the northeast. That's good fortune luck and man made luck.
Here is how this team has benefited from this good fortune:

1st Super Bowl win - came after a very controversial ruling in a playoff game with Oakland after Brady fumbled yet was awarded the ball back choosing to call it a forward pass. This play led to new rule (the tuck rule) but by rules that were in place at the time we all saw the fumble. Keep in mind this is when Al Davis was still alive and very much hated by the NFL

4th Super Bowl win - came after Seattle foolishly chose to throw a pass from the one yard line when they had three chances for Lynch to drive it in.

5th Super Bowl win - came after Atlanta foolishly chose to try and pass while on the 22yd line when a run shortens the FG length and uses clock. That FG would have made it a two score game and would have made it unlikely the Pats pull it out.

The other two Super Bowl wins #2 & #3 (along with the first win) were all by 3 points in an era the Pats were found to be cheating by taping their opponents practices. Years later we also found they were creating another advantage for themselves by under inflating the balls. Who knows how long that practice was going on. Getting caught on both issues only resulted in fines, lost draft picks and suspension. They had the good fortune of never having a win vacated which is not uncommon in the NCAA.

Without this string of good fortune the Pats could be the only team to have lost over 5 Super Bowls. All I can say is if there is a God he must be a Patriots fan.

Willie99 · Feb 8, 2017

and they're two miraculous catches from being 7-0, why did you forget about that narrative?

looks like the Patriots EXECUTED better, especially down the stretch of close games.

they were 17-2 this year, they were 16-3 ATS

Since 2003 (as far back as this site enables) https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/win_trends/?range=yearly_since_2003

They have the best in the NFL, winning 36 more games then second best

They have the best record in division games, although a few teams are close to them in this one (like Indy and GB)

They have the best record in non-division games, winning 32 games more than 2nd best

They have the best record in conference games, winning 20 games more than 2nd best

They have the best record in non-conference games, winning 9 games more than 2nd best

They have the best record in playoff games, winning 9 games more than 2nd best

They've played in the most SuperBowls, They have the most SB wins by 3

They played in by far the most conference championship games

Yep, it's all about being lucky

face)(*^%

johnniefive · Feb 8, 2017

They've played in the most SuperBowls, They have the most SB wins by 3
Yep, it's all about being lucky

I don't normally respond to people, but I think you are going a little overboard here.

Pittsburgh still has the most wins at 6. The Patriots have 5.

Yep, it's all about being CORRECT.

Please try to double-check your facts before spouting off made-up stats that you are using to perpetuate your terrible counterpoint. You see, since we know that the Patriots have cheated in multiple ways (Deflate-gate, taping opponents, stealing playbooks, who knows what else), all of your unchecked stats above have no weight.

They are cheaters and should have an asterisk next to all of their wins.

Willie99 · Feb 8, 2017

johnniefive said:
They've played in the most SuperBowls, They have the most SB wins by 3
Yep, it's all about being lucky

I don't normally respond to people, but I think you are going a little overboard here.

Pittsburgh still has the most wins at 6. The Patriots have 5.

Yep, it's all about being CORRECT.

Please try to double-check your facts before spouting off made-up stats that you are using to perpetuate your terrible counterpoint. You see, since we know that the Patriots have cheated in multiple ways (Deflate-gate, taping opponents, stealing playbooks, who knows what else), all of your unchecked stats above have no weight.

They are cheaters and should have an asterisk next to all of their wins.

you must have missed this

Since 2003 (as far back as this site enables) https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tre...rly_since_2003

and I was talking about the lucky run of Brady and Belichick, which is what this thread is all about, hence I didn't mention 9 superbowls

thanks for playing

johnniefive · Feb 8, 2017

Willie99 said:
you must have missed this

Since 2003 (as far back as this site enables) https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tre...rly_since_2003

and I was talking about the lucky run of Brady and Belichick, which is what this thread is all about, hence I didn't mention 9 superbowls

thanks for playing

I'm going to assume, by your childish, constant attempts at one upping people with your "comebacks", that you are both red-headed and someone's stepchild, so it would be pointless to respond back to you. I guess you feel the need to constantly feel like you are right.. I understand, life can be rough when the team that you support has to cheat for wins..

...And, I wasn't playing..

bobbyjones2 · Feb 8, 2017

Both. If you are an ne fan and you don't acknowledge the absolute coaching meltdowns in past sb s, you probably cant be talked into reason. Fans rarely are rational.

Something about Bellicek that just brings out the total stupidity in other coaches.

PatsFanatic · Feb 8, 2017

JohnnyMags said:
Everyone is touting New England Best franchise ever, Brady, Belichick best of all time. Five Super Bowl wins is quite an accomplishment, not to mention 4 other trips to the bowl and finishing second.
Luck however is something that is truly shinning on the team from the northeast. That's good fortune luck and man made luck.
Here is how this team has benefited from this good fortune:

1st Super Bowl win - came after a very controversial ruling in a playoff game with Oakland after Brady fumbled yet was awarded the ball back choosing to call it a forward pass. This play led to new rule (the tuck rule) but by rules that were in place at the time we all saw the fumble. Keep in mind this is when Al Davis was still alive and very much hated by the NFL

4th Super Bowl win - came after Seattle foolishly chose to throw a pass from the one yard line when they had three chances for Lynch to drive it in.

5th Super Bowl win - came after Atlanta foolishly chose to try and pass while on the 22yd line when a run shortens the FG length and uses clock. That FG would have made it a two score game and would have made it unlikely the Pats pull it out.

The other two Super Bowl wins #2 & #3 (along with the first win) were all by 3 points in an era the Pats were found to be cheating by taping their opponents practices. Years later we also found they were creating another advantage for themselves by under inflating the balls. Who knows how long that practice was going on. Getting caught on both issues only resulted in fines, lost draft picks and suspension. They had the good fortune of never having a win vacated which is not uncommon in the NCAA.

Without this string of good fortune the Pats could be the only team to have lost over 5 Super Bowls. All I can say is if there is a God he must be a Patriots fan.

Can someone other than me explain to this guy this why this 1000% FALSE....as if it hasn't been covered 100 times already.

By the way, all footballs loose air when you heat them up, measure them, then go outside. Hence why the NFL has not released any PSI numbers over the last year they have been "checking" them. Deflategate was a roast, get with the times. Just ask the Giants and Steelers from week 13, oh, but no investigation there.

The only breaking of the rules the Pats have done was taping the Jets sideline for defensive signals when they were told not to....Week 1 2007, Belichick ADMITTED it....BTW, since your history is foggy I'll remind you they won every game that year except the last one in which luck was NOT on their side.

chonce · Feb 8, 2017

There is not a single SB-winnng team in which you couldn't cite some lucky incident.

chonce · Feb 8, 2017

PatsFanatic said:
Can someone other than me explain to this guy this why this 1000% FALSE....as if it hasn't been covered 100 times already.

By the way, all footballs loose air when you heat them up, measure them, then go outside. Hence why the NFL has not released any PSI numbers over the last year they have been "checking" them. Deflategate was a roast, get with the times. Just ask the Giants and Steelers from week 13, oh, but no investigation there.

The only breaking of the rules the Pats have done was taping the Jets sideline for defensive signals when they were told not to....Week 1 2007, Belichick ADMITTED it....BTW, since your history is foggy I'll remind you they won every game that year except the last one in which luck was NOT on their side.

and yes, they never taped any practices. This is fact, look it up. If you think that,you don't follow the issue enough to speak about it with credibility. The offense was taping signals from the wrong location, after Goodell's memo clarifying the rules. Some people are in denial: Pat's best ever, get over t.

PeePee · Feb 8, 2017

chonce said:
There is not a single SB-winnng team in which you couldn't cite some lucky incident.

+1000

dsong · Feb 8, 2017

Well, let's look at the probability of winning the Super Bowl at the start of the playoffs to get a sense of how lucky they were.

2001: 5%
2002: Missed playoffs
2003: 30%
2004: 25%
2005: 5%
2006: 10%
2007: 60%
2008: Missed Playoffs
2009: 5%
2010: 35%
2011: 35%
2012: 20%
2013: 15%
2014: 20%
2015: 20%
2016: 40%

So clearly they were strong contenders most years. Adding it up they were expected to win 3.25 Super Bowls and they won 5. They've exceeded expectations, though they definitely had their share of bad luck along the way.

Pelikan · Feb 8, 2017

Down 25 pts at the half.......think a wee bit of skill might have been involved !

dsong · Feb 8, 2017

Skill and incredibly dumb play calling from the Falcons.

Mistakes happen but some of those play calls boggles the mind.

Michelangelo · Feb 8, 2017

bobbyjones2 said:
Both. If you are an ne fan and you don't acknowledge the absolute coaching meltdowns in past sb s, you probably cant be talked into reason. Fans rarely are rational.

Something about Bellicek that just brings out the total stupidity in other coaches.

That last statement nails it. Bellicek intimidates the opposition coaches. This factor has given the Patriots opportunities to win that they otherwise would not have had.

But what doesn't often get mentioned is the way the Patriots take advantage of their opportunities when given them. Three of their SB victories come to mind.

The 41 second drive by the Pats with no timeouts left to get Vinattieri into a position where he could kick the game winning 48 yd end of game FG against the Rams despite the illustrious John Madden saying that with a first season starter QB in Tom Brady that the Pats should sit on the ball until overtime so that the kid didn't crack under pressure and turn the ball over and tee the Rams up for the win.

The incredibly athletic play by Butler to get the goalline pick as the Seahawks were about to go in for the winning TD with seconds remaining on the clock. Butler said after the game that he was coached during the leadup to the game to expect that exact play. He jumped it. Held it. Patriots prevail.

And this year's incredible comeback where yes, the Pats were aided by questionable clock management on the part of the Falcons, but I ask you who but the Patriots could have pulled off such a miraculous comeback. Run stuffs, sacks, strip sack, a FG, and three TDs , 2 two point conversions in less than 20 minutes, to get to overtime, and a decisive game winning drive and TD to clinch the win. Name me another team who you could even dream of pulling off such a comeback. Well you can't because nobody has come even close to such a comeback in all 51 previous Super Bowls.

The Patriots take full advantage of all luck that lands on their plate. Champions like no other.

dsong · Feb 8, 2017

Chargers came from 17 down on the road against the Falcons so at least we knew it was a possibility. Still takes nothing away from the Patriots - that was an epic comeback.

Kaveman · Feb 8, 2017

On a GAMBLING FORUM of all places, serendipity is questioned? Every one of those factors in the first post, we've all been burned by similar ones. Or benefitted from them. Shit happens.

Willie99 · Feb 9, 2017

Some people call this dominating stats, others call it luck

You do the math

Matchup
1st Downs	37	17
Passing 1st downs	26	13
Rushing 1st downs	7	3
1st downs from penalties	4	1
3rd down efficiency	7-14	1-8
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-0
Total Plays	93	46
Total Yards	546	344
Total Drives	13	11
Yards per Play	5.9	7.5
Passing	442	240
Comp-Att	43-63	17-23
Yards per pass	6.5	8.6
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Sacks-Yards Lost	5-24	5-44
Rushing	104	104
Rushing Attempts	25	18
Yards per rush	4.2	5.8
Red Zone (Made-Att)	4-6	3-3
Penalties	4-23	9-65
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	1
Possession	40:31	23:27

johnniefive · Feb 9, 2017

I don't have to time to go line by line, but for example NE threw more interceptions, had worse yards per pass, more passing attempts (implying a very inefficient short passing scheme by an old has-been QB), more turnovers, more rushing attempts (inefficiency), higher time of possession because they couldn't score as quickly and efficiently as Atlanta, more turnovers (mistake prone), less penalties (helped by the paid zebras), more total drives because they were behind the entire game, more yards/plays because they were playing catchup, less defensive TDs, etc, etc, etc... if anything this proves they were playing from behind because they were bad in the first half...

By the way, is this how you personally handicap football? By looking at stat sheets and making assumptions of who did better based purely on numbers? I seem to remember you had a head-to-head pick 'em contest against AK a while back and you lost pretty badly. Like really badly.. As in, it was over before the last week of the season, badly.. like your record looked like the reverse of his record, badly... I am not going to comment on your "handicapping" methods, but I think a dog could pick better than you at least, statistically speaking. Not making fun of you, just stating facts.

Willie99 · Feb 9, 2017

dsong said:
Chargers came from 17 down on the road against the Falcons so at least we knew it was a possibility. Still takes nothing away from the Patriots - that was an epic comeback.

Saints made a crazy comeback too, didn't win but covered

Maybe it's a thing with the Falcons

BIlls68 · Feb 9, 2017

Brady and company all got balls like Sasquatch..Back the team with bigger balls yo! Bottom line...Big ballz

New England really Good or really lucky

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