How to bet UFC 208: de Randamie-Holm

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]How to bet UFC 208: de Randamie-Holm[/h]Reed Kuhn
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

Another year into the mainstreaming of mixed martial arts, and another women's division will be added to the sport's premier promotion. Having already built superstars in the women's bantamweight and strawweight divisions, the UFC now will crown an inaugural champion for the women's featherweight division. However, whomever the winner, they may just be a placeholder to face the elephant in the division, Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino.
Of the inaugural title contenders, Holly Holm is already a star in the sport, having dethroned the previously invincible Ronda Rousey. Fast forward a year since that head kick heard around the world, and now it's Holm who is reeling from consecutive losses, while a relative unknown stands in her way of being one of the few fighters to win a belt in two weight classes. The trajectories for the main event are mixed, and while the UFC has already gambled on Holm's stardom, Germaine de Randamie is fully capable of playing spoiler.
But before we get to the title fight in depth, let's first examine a pair of middleweight matchups. These two pairings have very different style dynamics, and yet each could affect the title contender picture in that volatile division in 2017. Here's how the fighters match up in performance metrics, and our best bets based on current odds.
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[h=2]Middleweight matchup: No. 3 Ronaldo Souza (-525) vs, No. 13 Tim Boetsch (+415)[/h]
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Striker versus grappler alert! Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza has been waiting in the wings for his shot at the UFC title, having strangled or even knocked out plenty of opponents along the way. But his matchup against Tim Boetsch will see a stylistic mismatch influenced heavily by where the fighters are positioned after the first few minutes.
That's because Souza's submission game is so elite, while Boetsch's grappling game is fairly limited. And yet Boetsch's striking stats take a slight edge, favoring his durability and power. Boetsch would welcome a striking war, but should avoid the ground at all costs. And that could be a tall order, given that his takedown defense is only average, and Souza will be able to change levels with underrated boxing and dictate the position.
Insider Recommends: We fully expect Jacare to finish the night celebrating a submission win with his crocodile crawl across the Octagon, but we are certainly aware of Boetsch's puncher's chance. The safest play is using "fight doesn't go to decision" as parlay fodder at minus-350, which hedges against Boetsch landing a stray haymaker on a 37-year-old chin. For straight plays, consider the "under 1.5 rounds" at minus-140, or a Souza by submission prop if it's minus-200 or less.

[h=2]Middleweight matchup: No. 8 Derek Brunson (-140) vs. No. 7 Anderson Silva (+120)[/h]
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This matchup has more unknowns and alternative angles than usual. The "greatest of all time" is completing out his contract knowing that he is permanently out of the title picture. He has no official wins since 2012, though he did outbox Nick Diaz two years ago before testing positive for banned substances, necessitating a "no contest" ruling. Silva's performance metrics are still elite in aggregate, but much less so if adjusted for recency. Meanwhile, Derek Brunson was quietly clearing a path toward a title shot until recently getting derailed by Robert Whittaker. It's two fighters on very different trajectories, and with very different futures.
While Silva is clearly more fragile since losing his title, he's also found ways to avoid knockouts through his past eight rounds of fighting. And his style of counter-striking plays well against aggressive fighters with loose defense. On paper, that describes Brunson, but only if he fails to change levels. He attempts takedowns at a relentless pace, and Silva has been known to simply give up guard and wait out a round. While we see Brunson as somewhat vulnerable while coming forward, the age differential, and relative durability sways us given the fairly even betting lines.
Insider Recommends: Brunson is a low-value lean, with multiple paths to victory but also a glaring stylistic risk. The total is also unreliable. Either fighter could knock out the other, while a conservative wrestling-centric fight plan from Brunson could simply delay the action to force a close decision. Keep an eye on the Brunson TKO prop, which could offer a huge return despite being a reasonable outcome given Silva's accumulating age and damage. Otherwise, avoid laying juice on this matchup overall.

[h=2]Women's featherweight championship matchup: Germaine de Randamie (-125) vs. Holly Holm (+105)[/h]
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De Randamie, to her credit, has performed exceptionally across striking metrics, with high accuracy and elusive defense, despite being the busier-paced fighter. But the quality of her opponents discounts her standup performance given they were earned against sub-par strikers who have not earned any momentum in the UFC.
Insider Recommends: While we see this as a very close matchup that will likely be a striking duel with mixed rounds, our value play is on Holm at plus money. Knowing that de Randamie lacks a ground threat, Holm can firmly settle into her boxing base and even count on some aggression on her opponent's part to help open countering opportunities. But a finish is relatively unlikely, making the current total of 4.5 rounds at nearly pick 'em prices hard to play.

[h=2]Closing lines:[/h]Elsewhere on the card, we like Glover Teixeira at minus-190 over the less experienced grappler Jared Cannonier. Wilson Reis is also a solid favorite at minus-600, but makes parlay fodder to combine with other favorites elsewhere on the card. For an upset pick, consider Roan Carneiro at plus-250 over Ryan LaFlare.
 

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Great info Hache. Thank you for posting
 

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