Analyzing MLB's 2017 Win-Totals Betting Odds

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Place your bets! Vegas win projections that are way off[/h]Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

The San Diego Padres finished a spring training in Las Vegas in one of the years I covered that team in the '90s, and my brother -- younger than me by 10 years -- joined that journey in one of his first forays outside of Orange County, Vermont.
As we pulled onto The Strip, he seemed overwhelmed by all of the flashing lights; we don’t have any stoplights in our hometown of Randolph Center. He said excitedly, "This place is great! I know I'm going to come back here."
About an hour later, he slumped on a stool in front of a slot machine, his gambling budget for the trip fully expended, and began to complain.
"This place stinks," he said, and I did what all older siblings should do. I cut him off and grinded his pride into the ground, pounding him with sarcasm.
"How do you think they built all these buildings?" I asked.
The folks who make their living through casinos have a pretty good idea of what they are doing, which is why it's always interesting to see their win projections (over/unders) for MLB teams and try to identify the weak spots. Last winter, for example, some sports books had the Cubs at 89 wins -- a shocking number, I wrote at the time. And the Cubs finished with 103 wins.
The projection for the Phillies was equally stunning to me, at 66.5. And the Phillies won 71 games, more than some folks in the organization expected.
The Atlantis Sports Book in Reno, Nevada, released its over/unders for this season, and some of the numbers that are most interesting:
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Cleveland Indians: 92.5 wins. I'd jump all over the over.

They won the American League Central handily last season with 94 wins and played to the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series. Since then, their ownership has stepped up and upgraded the payroll. They added the second-best free-agent slugger in Edwin Encarnacion (behind Yoenis Cespedes) and signed lefty specialist Boone Logan to complement what was already a tremendous bullpen. Cleveland scored more runs than any AL team other than Boston last season, and the Indians have a strong rotation fronted by Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco; they're a good defensive team. It's possible that Michael Brantley will return in 2017 after missing almost all of last year with shoulder problems; the Indians won't know if his shoulder is sound until he gets into game action.
On top of all of that, rival execs believe that the Indians play in baseball's least competitive division -- the Twins and White Sox are rebuilding, the Royals have a large group of players eligible for free agency in the fall, and the Tigers are endeavoring to reduce spending.
Cleveland is a heavy favorite to win this division and should surpass its 2016 win total.
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Chicago Cubs: 95.5 wins. I'd take the over.

I wrote here the other day about the strange PECOTA projection for the Cubs of 91 wins. Look, they won 103 games and the World Series last year. And they have a bunch of young players who have lots of room to improve -- Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, C.J. Edwards. The Cubs generally avoided injuries last season, and yes, a couple of injuries to their rotation would expose the soft underbelly of this organization. But this is a team of dynamic talents, a group worth betting on.
Baseball Prospectus has them at 91 wins.
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Cincinnati Reds: 73.5 wins. I'd jump on the under.

The Reds went 68-94 last season, and it has been a rough offseason for Cincinnati, by design. Cincinnati has spent less than $8 million in the free-agent market, adding Drew Storen and Scott Feldman. And the Reds talked about possibly trading second baseman Brandon Phillips. Jay Bruce was dealt last season, after a strong first half; pitcher Dan Straily was swapped to Miami with his stock at its peak this winter; and shortstop Zack Cozart will probably be moved this year. The team’s second-highest paid player, Homer Bailey, is out indefinitely after having cleanup work on his elbow.
Sure, Joey Votto will reach base 300 times; center fielder Billy Hamilton seems to be getting better; and you hear good stuff from scouts about some of their young pitchers, like Anthony DeSclafani, who was stolen in a trade with the Marlins. Rival executives praise the work and the process of general manager Dick Williams and believe the Reds are moving in the right direction.
But they aren't going to win this year, especially in a division topped by the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. Baseball Prospectus has them pegged at 74 wins, and 73.5 wins seems very high for a rebuilding club
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Seattle Mariners: 85.5 wins. I'd take the over.

The Mariners won 86 games last year, a leap of 10 wins over the 2015 season. You can make an argument that Seattle, more than any other team -- including the Nationals -- has gone all-in on winning in the next two years. They traded the talented Taijuan Walker to Arizona to get a high-end leadoff hitter and shortstop in Jean Segura. They upgraded their outfield defense (and pitching, by extension) when they swapped for Jarrod Dyson. They traded for Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo for the back of the rotation, and added some bullpen help. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto did not have a good farm system when he took over the team after the 2014 season, and he has a core of aging stars -- Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Felix Hernandez -- so he has done just about everything he can do to make the team better for the 2017 season and get the Mariners into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
The rest of the division is extremely competitive, with Houston spending heavily to add left-handed hitting and experience, and the Angels putting together one of the best defensive teams in baseball. But Seattle should have a very good team this season -- at least as good as last year, which would be mean beating the over/under projection.
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Minnesota Twins: 70.5 wins. I'd take the over.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have assumed control of the team's baseball operations since the end of last season, and the Twins have a long, long way to go before contending for the AL Central title. But unlike some other rebuilding teams, the Twins may have already bottomed out with their 59-win season last year. They are now climbing with players like Byron Buxton, who improved through 2016; and Miguel Sano, who is said to be in much better condition than a year ago. They spent $24.5 million to add catcher Jason Castro in an effort to improve the pitching staff, and added a couple of bullpen stabilizers in Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow.


They kept Brian Dozier, at least for the first part of the season; the Twins will obviously evaluate trade possibilities through the season. But the AL Central is perhaps the least competitive division, context which gives the Twins a better chance to win more games. The White Sox are in full rebuild mode (and probably haven't hit rock bottom yet). The Royals are reeling from the offseason in which their best starting pitcher was killed, and if K.C. slumps early, the front office could move Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain in the middle of the year. The Tigers are coping with budget issues and haven't really made moves to improve this winter.
Baseball Prospectus actually has the Twins pegged at 80 wins for this season. It's hard to imagine them getting to that level, but 71 wins? Yes.
 

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