How to bet UFC 209

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[h=1]How to bet UFC 209[/h]ESPN INSIDER

On New Year's Day of 2011, at an event ironically called "UFC 125: Resolution," the main event between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard led to the ultra-rare modern outcome of a title fight draw. Without any actual resolution, a rematch was required. The incumbent champion Edgar would win by TKO and finally move on to face new contenders.

But that would not be the last time a UFC title fight ended without a winner. It's just coincidence, but it certainly seems fitting. Just days after the now infamous Oscar Best Picture decision mixup, the closest decision in welterweight title history that led to its own bungled decision announcement will (hopefully) see a final resolution at UFC 209. Woodley vs. Wonderboy II is already a compelling matchup for a variety of reasons, and that was before Georges St-Pierre's announced return to the UFC. Now the first pay-per-view main event from Las Vegas in 2017 will be must-see fight TV. Resolution, an undisputed king of the welterweights and the opportunity for fresh faces in the title picture are all at stake.
Plus, thanks to Conor McGregor's continual division swapping, another interim belt is at stake while McGregor negotiates his next move. Enter the No. 1 and 2 contenders in the lightweight division to compete for the title, adding a second championship bout for UFC 209's card.
Prior to any title fights, the first matchup of the main card pits two former heavyweight title-contenders, Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt, in a former DREAM organization rematch that could drop the loser out of future title contention. It's the type of "legends only" pairing that could end violently in a variety of ways, and you never know if it could facilitate the retirement of the fighter on the losing end.
But before we consider the betting angles, here's how the main card fighters stack up in key striking metrics. The graph illustrates some very different stylistic matchups, and we already broke down the best performers in each striking category earlier this week. These differences will factor heavily into how the UFC 209 matchups play out.


UFC209StrikingStats.png




But where is the betting value? Let's dive deeper into three matchups.
[h=3]Heavyweight matchup: No. 3 Alistair Overeem (-145) vs. No. 8 Mark Hunt (+125)[/h]
UFC209UberTapeOvereemHunt.png




When Overeem first fought Hunt in DREAM back in 2008, Overeem won via Americana submission. The scenario seems almost unfathomable in the heavyweight division now, where submissions are quite rare. But it was Hunt's relative inexperience with the ground game that allowed the opportunity to begin with.
Fast forward nine years, and Hunt has improved his submission defense enough to force the striking wars that he generally excels in. But against Overeem, a fellow K1 kickboxing alumnus, Hunt's technical striking could be outmatched. Overeem is actually the most accurate power head striker in the entire UFC. Though he is sometimes hesitant or reserved, when he pulls the trigger, he's capable of tremendous damage via a variety of strikes. The two have scored 15 knockdowns between them, but also received eight. Each is dangerous, but also vulnerable.
Insider recommends: We have to accept that each man is fully capable of knocking out the other, and the close odds reflect their similar paths to victory. But Overeem's superior accuracy, range and defense make him the more likely candidate to wobble his opponent first, and his price as just a mild favorite makes him affordable straight up. The total of 1.5 rounds is nearly a pick 'em based on each fighter's occasional tendency to go the distance. But without much of a wrestling threat here, we'd lean the under at just -125 and assume that with enough leather flying, someone will go down early.
[h=3]Lightweight championship: No. 1 Khabib Nurmagomedov (-170) vs. No. 2 Tony Ferguson (+150)[/h]
UFC209UberTapeFergusonNurmy.png



Starkly contrasting styles will boil this matchup down to a striker versus grappler fight. Extended time standing will favor Ferguson's huge reach advantage and crisper striking. But Nurmagomedov hasn't suffered strikers lightly, spending 40 percent of all Octagon time on the ground controlling opponents. Nurmagomedov tends to hang back and make strikers miss, eventually baiting them into close range and then owning the rest of the round in control.
There's an interesting wild card in the form of Ferguson's submissions, specifically his easy and eager choke game. He attempts on average one submission for every time he ends up on the mat. However, Nurmagomedov, more so than most, should be well equipped to defend submissions, and Ferguson will only give up position more easily by seeking them.
Insider recommends: Nurmagomedov's dominant ground control is a bad matchup for Ferguson's willingness to fight off his back. Despite Ferguson's dangerous choke game and superior standup, we don't see it being enough to defend the onslaught. Nurmagomedov is still affordable straight-up at -175, but we don't see an early finish. The total is set at a very rare 3.5 rounds, and we'd lean toward the over at -150, but at relatively low value. A miracle hedge of Ferguson by submission could end up near +500.
[h=3]Welterweight championship: Champion Tyron Woodley (+145) vs. No. 2 Stephen Thompson (-165)[/h]
UFC209UberTapeThompsonWoodley.png


The first fight saw flashes of each fighter's best weapons, including Woodley's wrestling and power striking versus Thompson's precise and effective point striking. Each man was able to clearly win rounds, and the resulting draw was seen as the right score with rare fan agreement.
The key question in the rematch is whether any major factor will be different from the first fight. Woodley could decide to use his wrestling more often or work on closing range and pulling the trigger more often. Meanwhile, Thompson might have improved his takedown defense in order to unleash his superior long range striking even more effectively.

Insider recommends: The closeness of the matchup and the ability of each fighter to steal rounds makes this just as close as the first fight. And yet the market has only retracted slightly from making Thompson a -210 favorite the first time out. That's why we still see value in Woodley, who continues to be underestimated by betting markets in title fights, heading into his third consecutive championship fight as an underdog without having lost one. However, the total is highly volatile. Woodley remains the early knockout threat but could deploy his wrestling for a safer route to winning rounds. The total will depend highly on position, but we'd lean slightly toward the over 2.5 rounds at -170.
 

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