Play-in Games
• A play-in game is expected to be competitive, with many point-spreads of 4.5 or less, however, totals have trended 16-8-1 UNDER.
• Formerly, all play-in games used to match #16 seeds, recently, play-in games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 8-2 UNDER.
• Back to that point-spread benchmark, favorites of 4.5 or less are just 14-13 SU & 9-17-1 ATS (33.3%).
• SWAC teams are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS, while MAAC teams are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS historically in play-in games.
• A play-in game is expected to be competitive, with many point-spreads of 4.5 or less, however, totals have trended 16-8-1 UNDER.
• Formerly, all play-in games used to match #16 seeds, recently, play-in games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 8-2 UNDER.
• Back to that point-spread benchmark, favorites of 4.5 or less are just 14-13 SU & 9-17-1 ATS (33.3%).
• SWAC teams are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS, while MAAC teams are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS historically in play-in games.
First round games
• Teams coming off a conference tournament championship are 27-11 OVER in their last 38 first round contests.
• Teams that didn’t make their conference tournament championship game are on a first round slide of just 78-95-4 ATS, good go-against teams.
• Power conference schools that lost SU & ATS in their conference championship game are 50-14 SU & 36-25-3 ATS in the first round since 2002.
• Beware of first round favorites of -1 to -3, as they are just 32-35 SU & 23-40-4 ATS since 2009.
• Only three first round favorites of 14.5 points or more out of 122 have lost outright while going 60-584 ATS.
• Top 4 seeds are just 17-25-1 ATS as double-digit first round favorites since 2013. Top 4 seeds as single digit favorites are 28-16 UNDER the total since 2006 and 26-17-1 ATS in those games.
• #5 seeds are 17-17 SU & 10-22-2 ATS in recent first round games versus #12 seeds.
• #6 seeds are 16-16 SU & 12-19-1 ATS of late in first round games versus #11 seeds. (Also 20-11-1 UNDER)
• #8 seeds are 20-12 SU & 18-13-1 ATS in their past 32 encounters versus #9 seeds (Underdogs are 1614 SU & 19-10-1 ATS in those contests).
• Power Conference schools are 12-10 SU & 6-15-1 ATS as #5 seeds in the first round since 2008.
• Power Conference schools are 9-18 SU & 13-13-1 ATS as #9-16 seeds in the first round since 2014.
Second
• Teams coming off a conference tournament championship are 27-11 OVER in their last 38 first round contests.
• Teams that didn’t make their conference tournament championship game are on a first round slide of just 78-95-4 ATS, good go-against teams.
• Power conference schools that lost SU & ATS in their conference championship game are 50-14 SU & 36-25-3 ATS in the first round since 2002.
• Beware of first round favorites of -1 to -3, as they are just 32-35 SU & 23-40-4 ATS since 2009.
• Only three first round favorites of 14.5 points or more out of 122 have lost outright while going 60-584 ATS.
• Top 4 seeds are just 17-25-1 ATS as double-digit first round favorites since 2013. Top 4 seeds as single digit favorites are 28-16 UNDER the total since 2006 and 26-17-1 ATS in those games.
• #5 seeds are 17-17 SU & 10-22-2 ATS in recent first round games versus #12 seeds.
• #6 seeds are 16-16 SU & 12-19-1 ATS of late in first round games versus #11 seeds. (Also 20-11-1 UNDER)
• #8 seeds are 20-12 SU & 18-13-1 ATS in their past 32 encounters versus #9 seeds (Underdogs are 1614 SU & 19-10-1 ATS in those contests).
• Power Conference schools are 12-10 SU & 6-15-1 ATS as #5 seeds in the first round since 2008.
• Power Conference schools are 9-18 SU & 13-13-1 ATS as #9-16 seeds in the first round since 2014.
Second
Southern Mississippi/Rice OVER 142 *LARGE*
