[h=1]Conference tourney betting guide[/h]
Dave TuleyAndrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The madness has already begun.
While the vast majority of recreational college basketball bettors are waiting for Selection Sunday, sharp bettors already have been firing away because they know some of the best wagering opportunities of the year happen during the conference basketball tournaments in the two weeks before the Big Dance. For one thing, with every league -- including the Ivy League -- having a conference tournament, there are far more games (300 in the two weeks) than during the actual NCAA tournament (67 games over three weekends). And it's harder for bookmakers to have sharp lines on every game, so there are some soft spots for bettors to exploit.
I like to try to find teams that are getting hot at the right time and making one last push for an NCAA bid. These can be "bubble teams" but also teams that are clearly also-rans.
Now don't get me wrong: I'm not saying you should play every team in a "must-win situation," because I've long said that teams like that aren't consistent enough to "flip the switch" when needed. If they were, they would have started winning sooner and not be in their current situations. I usually like when I can find a spot when they're facing an opponent that could lack motivation, such as a team that's already locked up an NCAA bid or unlikely to improve its seed much.
There haven't been as many good spots this past week as in years past, mostly because it's becoming more common for the mid-majors to receive just one bid, so teams that dominated their conferences (such as Oakland, Belmont and Monmouth) still had to win their tourneys and are now headed to the NIT (and I wasn't prescient enough to fade them at the right time). Besides, favorites lead 49-48-5 ATS so far through Monday night with one game closing at pick 'em; overs lead 51-50-2.
As for futures, I believe it's better to pass on those and wait for the team you like to face it's biggest obstacle and then take them on the money line.
We'll update this file throughout the week with plays for each day, including ones recommended by Andrew Lange and other Chalk handicappers.
[h=2]Tuesday's games[/h][h=3]Best bet[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
7 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Tuley's Take: Georgia Tech suffered a setback Saturday with a loss at Syracuse, and ESPN's bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Yellow Jackets atop his "Next Four Out" (after his "First Four Out"), so they need a deep ACC run to have a shot at the Big Dance. That's unlikely, but this matchup looks good for Tech. The Yellow Jackets just beat Pitt 61-52 as 1.5-point home favorites last Tuesday on Senior Night, though it was junior center Ben Lammers that took control down the stretch. With the move to the ACC tournament at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the line has flipped to Pitt being a 1-point favorite, but I'll take the better team as a short underdog to live another day (and would look forward to getting double digits in the next round against Virginia).
The pick: Georgia Tech +1*
[h=3]Leans[/h]
NC State Wolfpack (+6) vs. Clemson Tigers
12 ET, ESPN2
Tuley's Take: Clemson is also on Lunardi's "Next Four Out," but there's not that much difference between these two teams (Clemson is 16-14 and NC State is 15-16). In addition, these teams just played March 1, and Clemson won only 78-74 (and failed to cover as a 9-point home favorite) with seemingly more to play for, and now NC State gets Clemson on a neutral court. I'll take the Wolfpack to cover again.
The pick: NC State +6
Saint Mary's Gaels (+6) vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
9 p.m. ET, ESPN
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aint Mary's on Monday night) as the Cougars were the only team to beat Gonzaga during the regular season and would have been a live 'dog getting points again if meeting here in Vegas for the West Coast Conference title. However, the way Saint Mary's manhandled BYU in an 81-50 rout has me thinking it can turn the tables on Gonzaga despite losing their regular-season meetings by 23 and 10 points, respectively. Another thing keeping this from being a best bet is the fact both teams are NCAA locks, so there's not that added incentive for the Bulldogs (plus I'm expecting this line will come up short compared to the Bulldogs' 16.5-point average win in the first two meetings).
The pick: Saint Mary's +6.
Dave TuleyAndrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The madness has already begun.
While the vast majority of recreational college basketball bettors are waiting for Selection Sunday, sharp bettors already have been firing away because they know some of the best wagering opportunities of the year happen during the conference basketball tournaments in the two weeks before the Big Dance. For one thing, with every league -- including the Ivy League -- having a conference tournament, there are far more games (300 in the two weeks) than during the actual NCAA tournament (67 games over three weekends). And it's harder for bookmakers to have sharp lines on every game, so there are some soft spots for bettors to exploit.
I like to try to find teams that are getting hot at the right time and making one last push for an NCAA bid. These can be "bubble teams" but also teams that are clearly also-rans.
Now don't get me wrong: I'm not saying you should play every team in a "must-win situation," because I've long said that teams like that aren't consistent enough to "flip the switch" when needed. If they were, they would have started winning sooner and not be in their current situations. I usually like when I can find a spot when they're facing an opponent that could lack motivation, such as a team that's already locked up an NCAA bid or unlikely to improve its seed much.
There haven't been as many good spots this past week as in years past, mostly because it's becoming more common for the mid-majors to receive just one bid, so teams that dominated their conferences (such as Oakland, Belmont and Monmouth) still had to win their tourneys and are now headed to the NIT (and I wasn't prescient enough to fade them at the right time). Besides, favorites lead 49-48-5 ATS so far through Monday night with one game closing at pick 'em; overs lead 51-50-2.
As for futures, I believe it's better to pass on those and wait for the team you like to face it's biggest obstacle and then take them on the money line.
We'll update this file throughout the week with plays for each day, including ones recommended by Andrew Lange and other Chalk handicappers.
[h=2]Tuesday's games[/h][h=3]Best bet[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
7 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Tuley's Take: Georgia Tech suffered a setback Saturday with a loss at Syracuse, and ESPN's bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Yellow Jackets atop his "Next Four Out" (after his "First Four Out"), so they need a deep ACC run to have a shot at the Big Dance. That's unlikely, but this matchup looks good for Tech. The Yellow Jackets just beat Pitt 61-52 as 1.5-point home favorites last Tuesday on Senior Night, though it was junior center Ben Lammers that took control down the stretch. With the move to the ACC tournament at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the line has flipped to Pitt being a 1-point favorite, but I'll take the better team as a short underdog to live another day (and would look forward to getting double digits in the next round against Virginia).
The pick: Georgia Tech +1*
[h=3]Leans[/h]
NC State Wolfpack (+6) vs. Clemson Tigers
12 ET, ESPN2
Tuley's Take: Clemson is also on Lunardi's "Next Four Out," but there's not that much difference between these two teams (Clemson is 16-14 and NC State is 15-16). In addition, these teams just played March 1, and Clemson won only 78-74 (and failed to cover as a 9-point home favorite) with seemingly more to play for, and now NC State gets Clemson on a neutral court. I'll take the Wolfpack to cover again.
The pick: NC State +6
Saint Mary's Gaels (+6) vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
9 p.m. ET, ESPN
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aint Mary's on Monday night) as the Cougars were the only team to beat Gonzaga during the regular season and would have been a live 'dog getting points again if meeting here in Vegas for the West Coast Conference title. However, the way Saint Mary's manhandled BYU in an 81-50 rout has me thinking it can turn the tables on Gonzaga despite losing their regular-season meetings by 23 and 10 points, respectively. Another thing keeping this from being a best bet is the fact both teams are NCAA locks, so there's not that added incentive for the Bulldogs (plus I'm expecting this line will come up short compared to the Bulldogs' 16.5-point average win in the first two meetings).
The pick: Saint Mary's +6.
