[h=1]How to bet every NCAA tourney first-round game[/h]Dave TuleyAndrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
3/14/17
If you're looking to bet on the NCAA tournament, here's everything you need to know.
ESPN Chalk handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange will analyze all 32 NCAA tournament first-round games taking place on Thursday and Friday. We'll start with Thursday's games, add Friday's games on Wednesday morning (along with Villanova's first-round matchup) and then add the other First Four winners' games soon afterward.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday morning.
Jump to region: East | South| West | Midwest
[h=2]East Regional[/h]
No. 13 East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. No. 4 Florida Gators (-9.5)
Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET, Orlando, Florida
Over/under: 144.5
Tuley's Take: This line opened Florida -12 at South Point and I have to admit I immediately circled East Tennessee State as a potential play, since I had successfully faded Florida with Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. The Gators peaked early in the season when they looked like the second-best team in the SEC to Kentucky and a legitimate Final Four threat. Unfortunately for<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Florida, center John Egbunu went down with a torn ACL in February and that was a huge loss on both ends of the floor. Now, the Gators rely on the play of their guards, though SEC Sixth Man of the Year Canyon Barry (son of Hall of Famer Rick Barry) is recovering from a lingering ankle injury. So yes, I felt at first glance that Florida was vulnerable (especially with ETSU starting four seniors, which is typical of live mid-major upsetters), but after learning more about East Tennessee State, I'm not sure I trust the Buccaneers to keep this close enough.</offer>
Besides, we've lost quite a bit of value with the line being bet down from 12 to 9.5. ETSU's T.J. Cromer (19.1 points per game) is a one-man wrecking crew, but Florida's defense could force him to give up the ball more than he likes. I think the Buccaneers' only chance is to push the pace, and that could lead to turnovers and easy baskets for the Gators in transition, so I see this being a high-scoring affair.
The pick: lean to over 144.5
No. 12 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 5 Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)
Thursday, 12:40 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 135
Tuley's Take: This is the second of four 5-12 matchups on Thursday, and I think it's another great spot for a 12 to pull an upset. This is a contrast in styles. I know Virginia has the nation's most efficient defense according to kenpom.com, but I believe UNC-Wilmington's relentless offense can overcome that. Virginia has been inconsistent on the offensive end and will have its hands full with CAA Defensive Player of the Year Devontae Cacok, who is also a beast on the offensive boards and hits a high percentage of his shots via dunks and layups in the paint. They almost don't get him the ball enough, but the Seahawks have plenty of other scorers with a four-guard lineup including C.J. Bryce and Chris Flemmings, and they also take care of the ball well, something needed against Virginia.
I also lean to the under (again, that's the Cavaliers' style of play, as they're 19-10-1 with the under on the season), but believe UNC-Wilmington will keep coming at Virginia and keep this close with a great shot at the outright upset.
The pick: UNC-Wilmington +7.5* (lean to under 135)
No. 9 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)
Thursday, 9:40 p.m., Buffalo, New York
Over/under: 138.5
Tuley's Take: Virginia Tech lost its best big man, Chris Clarke, to a torn ACL on Feb. 12, which makes the Hokies very thin and more reliant on their outside shooters. Wisconsin is eighth in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and will have the opportunity to defend the 3-point line with the Hokies' absence of an inside presence. That should also help Wisconsin sophomore center Ethan Happ have a big game in the paint, though the main reason to like the Badgers' chances is the senior leadership of Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig, who have a lot of NCAA tournament experience. I included Wisconsin as one of my value plays to win the whole thing at odds of 80-1, so I obviously expect them to get through this game, but I'm not willing to lay the points. The better play to me looks like the under, as the Badgers should dictate the tempo (they are 16-12-3 with the under this season) and grind out a victory.
The pick: under 138.5*
[h=2]Midwest Regional[/h]
No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (-8.5)
Thursday, 7:25 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 134
Lange: There aren't many teams in the country that have the "total package." Purdue boasts size, experience, great guard play and a lockdown defense. The Big Ten was no doubt watered down this season, but the Boilermakers outscored opponents by a league-best plus-8.1 points per game. Overall, power ratings indicate that the Boilermakers are perhaps a bit undervalued as a No. 4 seed.
Speaking of scoring margin, Vermont was the class of the America East and then some, outscoring teams by 14.2 PPG. Vermont faced three NCAA tournament teams: Providence, South Carolina and Butler. The Catamounts lost those games by margins of 22, 18 and 12, respectively (all three were also on the road). Vermont held its own on the glass (minus-8 combined in the three games) but struggled mightily to get clean looks and knock down shots (13-of-52, 25 percent 3-pointers). That's a big concern here as Vermont will be outsized at every position.
Purdue has trouble at times getting out of its own way. The Boilermakers had 15 turnovers and shot 6-of-13 from the free throw line in an overtime loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. And let's not forget last year's opening-round double-overtime loss to Arkansas-Little Rock. Vermont, however, is a more favorable matchup and one the Boilers should win by double-digits.
The pick: Purdue -8.5*
No. 12 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones (-6)
Thursday, 9:55 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 154.5
Lange: You don't see many power conference teams as experienced as Iowa State, with five seniors among its rotation. You also don't see many power conference squads as small as the Cyclones, who play four guards and a small forward. Their lack of size, however, shouldn't be a problem in this matchup as Nevada doesn't feature anyone taller than 6-foot-7. ISU's body of work is really impressive considering the team does have some glaring deficiencies. The Cyclones were a Big 12-worst minus-10.2 in rebounding margin and relied almost exclusively on shots outside of the paint. No Big 12 team shot the ball better from the 3-point line (42.3 percent), but bettors should always be leery of teams that can't always rely on points in the paint or frequent trips to the charity stripe when outside shots aren't falling.
Much will be made about Nevada's perceived lack of quality opponents. The Wolf Pack faced only one team in Sagarin's top 50 (St. Mary's) and were handled rather easily, 81-63. In fact, only two teams in the Mountain West rank in the top 100: Colorado State (83rd) and Boise State (97th). But I don't think Nevada is going to be overwhelmed in this matchup. The Wolf Pack do an excellent job defending the 3-point line (30.7 percent vs. MWC), and if they can keep Iowa State under 40 percent from there, Nevada should advance. Iowa State played extremely well to its strengths, but the lack of balance has it ripe for an upset.
The pick: lean to Nevada +6
[h=2]South Regional[/h]
No. 13 Winthrop Eagles vs. No. 4 Butler Bulldogs (-11)
Thursday, 1:30 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 144
Lange: I'm interested to see Winthrop's approach from a tempo standpoint. Despite playing in the plodding Big South Conference, the Eagles ran whenever they had the opportunity. Their 100-86 loss to Florida State was a track meet (81 possessions), they won at Illinois 84-80 in overtime, another high-possession game, and they reached 76 possessions in a 83-67 loss at Dayton.
I'm not so sure Butler will be a willing partner, however. When push comes to shove, coach Chris Holtmann prefers his team play at a controlled pace. Only five games this season saw Butler top 69 possessions, and four of those opponents (St. John's twice, a healthy Xavier and Indiana) not only prefer to play up-tempo but have much more scoring prowess compared to Winthrop. Interestingly enough, Holtmann hinted that the game plan against Winthrop will be similar to that of Butler's Big East quarterfinals opponent, Xavier. That contest, which the Musketeers won 62-57, had only 62 possessions. It also went way under the closing total of 143. There's a good chance for a similar outcome in this matchup.
The pick: under 144*
No. 12 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. No. 5 Minnesota Golden Gophers (PK)
Thursday, 4 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 136
Lange: It's very possible we could see a No. 12 seed go off as a favorite as Minnesota opened as small chalk but early money came crashing in on Middle Tennessee State. Power ratings indicate this is essentially a No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, which is where the betting markets are pricing it.
The Golden Gophers at one point were 3-6 in Big Ten play, but reeled off eight straight wins. That run was buoyed by two victories in overtime and another by a single point -- all three of which were at home. Lose two of those "coin flip" games and Minnesota finishes 9-9 in league play and is likely out of the Big Dance. But give credit to coach Richard Pitino, who took a young squad and turned it into one of the best defensive squads in the Big Ten.
With the modernization of various power ratings, a team like MTSU isn't going to hold the postseason value it would have five or six years ago. The Blue Raiders have one of the best coaches in the country in Kermit Davis and boast nonconference blowout wins over Ole Miss and Vanderbilt as well as a three-point loss at VCU. This squad checks every box you want in the postseason: great coach, good guard play, size, ability to score inside and out, stellar team defense and postseason experience after beating Michigan State 90-81 as a No. 15 seed and 16.5-point underdog last season. I feel like MTSU is the "right side," but you certainly aren't getting any bargains.
The pick: Middle Tennessee State pick-em*
[h=2]West Regional[/h]
No. 16 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-22.5)
Thursday, 2 p.m., Salt Lake City
Over/under: 153
Tuley's Take: Gonzaga not only has the best record (32-1) in major college basketball but was also the best bet here in the Vegas sports books at 22-7-1 ATS (75.9 percent). Granted, the Bulldogs are used to laying huge points and still covering the spread, but I'm fading them anyway.
For starters, they no longer have to impress any pollsters, as the goal in the NCAA tournament is to survive and advance, so there's no incentive to run up the score. Besides, it looks like the oddsmakers might finally be catching up to Gonzaga, as it's only 2-3 ATS over the last five games. ESPN Chalk's NCAA Vegas Ranks (which will be published Wednesday) have this line at 20.5. Now, I understand a 2-point differential in such a huge spread doesn't mean as much as if there was a 2-point difference with the spread in single digits, but again it gives me confidence this line is inflated just a tad too much. Mike Daum is the nation's second-leading scorer at 25.3 points per game and he's the key for the Jackrabbits to keep this close. South Dakota State obviously faces a huge challenge in slowing down Gonzaga's offense, but the Jackrabbits do a good job of defending without fouling, and if the Zags are cold, this could get very interesting.
It's crazy to think that South Dakota State could pull the outright upset (and at 40-1 at the South Point, that price seems short considering a No. 16 has never beaten a No. 1 seed in 128 tries), but if they do, you read it here first.
The pick: South Dakota State +22.5*
No. 15 North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (-17)
Thursday, 9:50 p.m., Salt Lake City
Over/under: 147
Lange: The first thing that stands out in this matchup is North Dakota hasn't seen a defense even remotely close to Arizona's. There's a great statistic on kenpom.com that lists the average defensive efficiency of your opponents. North Dakota opponents allowed an average of 1.07 points per possession, which ranks 284th nationally. There were 83 teams that allowed less than a point per possession during the regular season. The Fighting Hawks faced one of those 83 (Cal State Bakersfield, 21st) and scored only 57 points on 68 possessions. And despite such a soft schedule, North Dakota ranks only 200th in offensive efficiency. Arizona faced nine nonconference teams ranked outside the top 100 and allowed an average of only 58.5 PPG. My biggest question is: How do the Wildcats approach this game offensively?
Following the return of open-court scorer Allonzo Trier, who sat the team's first 19 games due to eligibility issues, Arizona was much more comfortable playing up-tempo. In three Pac-12 tournament games, Arizona averaged 87 PPG and 72 possessions. But that small three-game stretch appears to have influenced the betting market, as this total was bet up from 144.5 to 147. North Dakota wasn't even one of the top three offensive teams in the Big Sky conference, which suggests it'll be a struggle to top 60 points. I'm playing this one under.
The pick: under 147*
No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (-12)
Thursday, 9:20 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 146
Tuley's Take: This is an intriguing in-state matchup between the big-school Florida State program and the fledgling Florida Gulf Coast program that is best known as "Dunk City" from its Sweet 16 run as a No. 15 seed in 2013. Brandon Goodwin leads FGCU with 18.2 points per game, and though the Eagles are not very good from 3-point range, that doesn't matter since they attack the rim so well (this team actually had more dunks this season than that 2012-13 team). The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS in their only games that were on the betting boards in Vegas this season, including a one-point loss to Michigan State as 14.5-point underdogs back in November. They also lost by just nine points to another No. 3 seed, Baylor, also in November.
Florida State is a quality team (and clearly faced a much tougher schedule), and Gulf Coast will certainly have to be at its best. But the Seminoles do struggle when teams are able to slow down the pace, and FGCU does that, as it methodically works the ball inside; playing a half-court game works in the Eagles' favor here. Florida State was 18-0 at home but only 7-8 in away and neutral-site games. Florida Gulf Coast is 10-4 away from home against mostly lesser competition, but should be able to hang around in this one.
The pick: Florida Gulf Coast +12*
No. 13 Bucknell Bison vs. No. 4 West Virginia Mountaineers (-13.5)
Thursday, 2:45 p.m., Buffalo
Over/under: 147
Tuley's Take: It's hard to hear the name Bucknell and not think of its 2005 upset of No. 3 Kansas. This year's team is capable, but faces a tough matchup in West Virginia. The Bison are 7-1 ATS in lined games this year, so the oddsmakers haven't quite caught up to them yet. In addition, the Chalk's NCAA Vegas Rankings has this line slightly lower at 12.5. However, I just don't know whether the Bison can keep up with the full-court pressure the entire game. If playing the spread, I would prefer taking Bucknell +8 in the first half and shorten the game to 20 minutes, but I think the better bet looks like the over. West Virginia will certainly be pushing the pace, which can lead to quick baskets with turnovers turning into fast-break opportunities for the opponent if it breaks the press. Both teams are also used to high-scoring games as West Virginia is 16-12-1 with the over and Bucknell is 5-2-1.
The pick: over 147* (lean to Bucknell first half +8)
No. 12 Princeton Tigers vs. No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6.5)
Thursday, 12:15 p.m., Buffalo
Over/under: 134
Tuley's Take: There are plenty of people looking at this game for the annual No. 12 upset of a No. 5 seed (they're 10-10 SU the past five years), but I'm not as high on Princeton. I also respect what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey has done with this program with back-to-back trips to the Elite Eight and taking the Irish to the ACC title game last weekend against Duke. In addition, the NCAA Vegas Ranks have Notre Dame as 7 points better, so I'm not seeing any value in taking Princeton plus the points, let alone winning outright. "Princeton offense" is a cliché for a reason as the Tigers play at a very slow pace (and they're 13-9-1 with the under this season). Notre Dame can be more explosive with their whole lineup capable of lighting it up from 3-point territory, but the Irish can also be methodical at times; this could turn into a half-court game, keeping the score low.
The pick: lean to under 134
No. 11 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 6 Maryland Terrapins (-2)
Thursday, 6:50 p.m., Orlando.
Over/under: 142
Tuley's Take: ESPN's Basketball Power Index has Xavier pulling the outright upset, but I just can't pull the trigger despite Maryland underachieving at 1-5 ATS down the stretch. Xavier has been bitten too often by the injury bug, mostly notably losing point guard Edmond Sumner to an ACL tear on Jan. 29. Trevon Bluiett gives the Musketeers a chance, but I'll still give the edge to Maryland's Melo Trimble and a much deeper supporting cast. Maryland also lost a starter in in 7-footer Michal Cekovsky, and it leaves me wondering how great this matchup could have been. I'll pass with a lean toward the Terrapins.
The pick: lean to Maryland -2
No. 10 VCU Rams vs. No. 7 St. Mary's Gaels (-4.5)
Thursday, 7:20 p.m., Salt Lake City
Over/under: 127
Lange: St. Mary's statistical profile is undeniably good. The Gaels are ultra-efficient on offense and suffocating on defense. The tricky thing is determining whether or not that production will translate against better competition. VCU isn't on the same level as Gonzaga, but the Rams do possess a level of size, speed and athleticism St. Mary's just didn't face much of this season. I do feel it important to point out that in St. Mary's three matchups against Gonzaga, the Zags shot 72-of-124, 58 percent from 2-point range and attempted 55 free throws. The Gaels, meanwhile, shot only 50-of-126, 40 percent from 2-point range and attempted a paltry 28 free throws. St. Mary's is such an enigma because it relies so heavily on outside shooting, rebounding missed shots from opponents and slowing the game down to a crawl. Similar to Virginia, a lot of the Gaels' success hinges on frustrating opponents into mistakes, and in such a low-possession game, those mistakes become magnified.
VCU actually got a primer in what to expect in the Atlantic 10 title game. Rhode Island turned the game into a low-possession slugfest and held the Rams to 31 percent from the floor. VCU was able to hit the glass with 23 offensive rebounds, but that type of success is unlikely here as St. Mary's is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.
St. Mary's is eventually going to run into the type of problems it had against Gonzaga, but I'm not sure it happens here. The Rams become a very average team when not able to dominate the glass and pick up garbage buckets. I prefer the favorite in this one.
The pick: St. Mary's -4.5*
No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores (-1) vs. No. 8 Northwestern Wildcats
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 131
Lange: It took half the season for Vanderbilt to buy into first-year coach Bryce Drew's man-to-man defense. The Commodores had such a difficult time stopping teams early on that they were forced to play zone at times. But down the stretch, this squad morphed in a big way. Vandy allowed only 61.7 PPG over its last nine games, which included wins over Florida (twice) and South Carolina as well as an easy point-spread cover at Kentucky.
Should Northwestern win this game, it's likely to involve the Wildcats playing sound defense. This is not a potent offensive team, as it ranked in the bottom half of the Big Ten in virtually every category including 3-point shooting at just 30.9 percent in league play. I don't necessarily buy into Northwestern and the "just happy to be here" concept, but this is uncharted territory for the Wildcats, and Vanderbilt's defensive overhaul appears to be real. The Commodores are also far more polished on the offensive end, as they led the SEC with a 53.7 effective field goal percentage.
The pick: lean to Vanderbilt -1
ESPN INSIDER
3/14/17
If you're looking to bet on the NCAA tournament, here's everything you need to know.
ESPN Chalk handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange will analyze all 32 NCAA tournament first-round games taking place on Thursday and Friday. We'll start with Thursday's games, add Friday's games on Wednesday morning (along with Villanova's first-round matchup) and then add the other First Four winners' games soon afterward.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday morning.
Jump to region: East | South| West | Midwest
[h=2]East Regional[/h]
No. 13 East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. No. 4 Florida Gators (-9.5)
Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET, Orlando, Florida
Over/under: 144.5
Tuley's Take: This line opened Florida -12 at South Point and I have to admit I immediately circled East Tennessee State as a potential play, since I had successfully faded Florida with Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. The Gators peaked early in the season when they looked like the second-best team in the SEC to Kentucky and a legitimate Final Four threat. Unfortunately for<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Florida, center John Egbunu went down with a torn ACL in February and that was a huge loss on both ends of the floor. Now, the Gators rely on the play of their guards, though SEC Sixth Man of the Year Canyon Barry (son of Hall of Famer Rick Barry) is recovering from a lingering ankle injury. So yes, I felt at first glance that Florida was vulnerable (especially with ETSU starting four seniors, which is typical of live mid-major upsetters), but after learning more about East Tennessee State, I'm not sure I trust the Buccaneers to keep this close enough.</offer>
Besides, we've lost quite a bit of value with the line being bet down from 12 to 9.5. ETSU's T.J. Cromer (19.1 points per game) is a one-man wrecking crew, but Florida's defense could force him to give up the ball more than he likes. I think the Buccaneers' only chance is to push the pace, and that could lead to turnovers and easy baskets for the Gators in transition, so I see this being a high-scoring affair.
The pick: lean to over 144.5
No. 12 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 5 Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)
Thursday, 12:40 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 135
Tuley's Take: This is the second of four 5-12 matchups on Thursday, and I think it's another great spot for a 12 to pull an upset. This is a contrast in styles. I know Virginia has the nation's most efficient defense according to kenpom.com, but I believe UNC-Wilmington's relentless offense can overcome that. Virginia has been inconsistent on the offensive end and will have its hands full with CAA Defensive Player of the Year Devontae Cacok, who is also a beast on the offensive boards and hits a high percentage of his shots via dunks and layups in the paint. They almost don't get him the ball enough, but the Seahawks have plenty of other scorers with a four-guard lineup including C.J. Bryce and Chris Flemmings, and they also take care of the ball well, something needed against Virginia.
I also lean to the under (again, that's the Cavaliers' style of play, as they're 19-10-1 with the under on the season), but believe UNC-Wilmington will keep coming at Virginia and keep this close with a great shot at the outright upset.
The pick: UNC-Wilmington +7.5* (lean to under 135)
No. 9 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)
Thursday, 9:40 p.m., Buffalo, New York
Over/under: 138.5
Tuley's Take: Virginia Tech lost its best big man, Chris Clarke, to a torn ACL on Feb. 12, which makes the Hokies very thin and more reliant on their outside shooters. Wisconsin is eighth in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and will have the opportunity to defend the 3-point line with the Hokies' absence of an inside presence. That should also help Wisconsin sophomore center Ethan Happ have a big game in the paint, though the main reason to like the Badgers' chances is the senior leadership of Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig, who have a lot of NCAA tournament experience. I included Wisconsin as one of my value plays to win the whole thing at odds of 80-1, so I obviously expect them to get through this game, but I'm not willing to lay the points. The better play to me looks like the under, as the Badgers should dictate the tempo (they are 16-12-3 with the under this season) and grind out a victory.
The pick: under 138.5*
[h=2]Midwest Regional[/h]
No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (-8.5)
Thursday, 7:25 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 134
Lange: There aren't many teams in the country that have the "total package." Purdue boasts size, experience, great guard play and a lockdown defense. The Big Ten was no doubt watered down this season, but the Boilermakers outscored opponents by a league-best plus-8.1 points per game. Overall, power ratings indicate that the Boilermakers are perhaps a bit undervalued as a No. 4 seed.
Speaking of scoring margin, Vermont was the class of the America East and then some, outscoring teams by 14.2 PPG. Vermont faced three NCAA tournament teams: Providence, South Carolina and Butler. The Catamounts lost those games by margins of 22, 18 and 12, respectively (all three were also on the road). Vermont held its own on the glass (minus-8 combined in the three games) but struggled mightily to get clean looks and knock down shots (13-of-52, 25 percent 3-pointers). That's a big concern here as Vermont will be outsized at every position.
Purdue has trouble at times getting out of its own way. The Boilermakers had 15 turnovers and shot 6-of-13 from the free throw line in an overtime loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. And let's not forget last year's opening-round double-overtime loss to Arkansas-Little Rock. Vermont, however, is a more favorable matchup and one the Boilers should win by double-digits.
The pick: Purdue -8.5*
No. 12 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones (-6)
Thursday, 9:55 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 154.5
Lange: You don't see many power conference teams as experienced as Iowa State, with five seniors among its rotation. You also don't see many power conference squads as small as the Cyclones, who play four guards and a small forward. Their lack of size, however, shouldn't be a problem in this matchup as Nevada doesn't feature anyone taller than 6-foot-7. ISU's body of work is really impressive considering the team does have some glaring deficiencies. The Cyclones were a Big 12-worst minus-10.2 in rebounding margin and relied almost exclusively on shots outside of the paint. No Big 12 team shot the ball better from the 3-point line (42.3 percent), but bettors should always be leery of teams that can't always rely on points in the paint or frequent trips to the charity stripe when outside shots aren't falling.
Much will be made about Nevada's perceived lack of quality opponents. The Wolf Pack faced only one team in Sagarin's top 50 (St. Mary's) and were handled rather easily, 81-63. In fact, only two teams in the Mountain West rank in the top 100: Colorado State (83rd) and Boise State (97th). But I don't think Nevada is going to be overwhelmed in this matchup. The Wolf Pack do an excellent job defending the 3-point line (30.7 percent vs. MWC), and if they can keep Iowa State under 40 percent from there, Nevada should advance. Iowa State played extremely well to its strengths, but the lack of balance has it ripe for an upset.
The pick: lean to Nevada +6
[h=2]South Regional[/h]
No. 13 Winthrop Eagles vs. No. 4 Butler Bulldogs (-11)
Thursday, 1:30 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 144
Lange: I'm interested to see Winthrop's approach from a tempo standpoint. Despite playing in the plodding Big South Conference, the Eagles ran whenever they had the opportunity. Their 100-86 loss to Florida State was a track meet (81 possessions), they won at Illinois 84-80 in overtime, another high-possession game, and they reached 76 possessions in a 83-67 loss at Dayton.
I'm not so sure Butler will be a willing partner, however. When push comes to shove, coach Chris Holtmann prefers his team play at a controlled pace. Only five games this season saw Butler top 69 possessions, and four of those opponents (St. John's twice, a healthy Xavier and Indiana) not only prefer to play up-tempo but have much more scoring prowess compared to Winthrop. Interestingly enough, Holtmann hinted that the game plan against Winthrop will be similar to that of Butler's Big East quarterfinals opponent, Xavier. That contest, which the Musketeers won 62-57, had only 62 possessions. It also went way under the closing total of 143. There's a good chance for a similar outcome in this matchup.
The pick: under 144*
No. 12 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. No. 5 Minnesota Golden Gophers (PK)
Thursday, 4 p.m., Milwaukee
Over/under: 136
Lange: It's very possible we could see a No. 12 seed go off as a favorite as Minnesota opened as small chalk but early money came crashing in on Middle Tennessee State. Power ratings indicate this is essentially a No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, which is where the betting markets are pricing it.
The Golden Gophers at one point were 3-6 in Big Ten play, but reeled off eight straight wins. That run was buoyed by two victories in overtime and another by a single point -- all three of which were at home. Lose two of those "coin flip" games and Minnesota finishes 9-9 in league play and is likely out of the Big Dance. But give credit to coach Richard Pitino, who took a young squad and turned it into one of the best defensive squads in the Big Ten.
With the modernization of various power ratings, a team like MTSU isn't going to hold the postseason value it would have five or six years ago. The Blue Raiders have one of the best coaches in the country in Kermit Davis and boast nonconference blowout wins over Ole Miss and Vanderbilt as well as a three-point loss at VCU. This squad checks every box you want in the postseason: great coach, good guard play, size, ability to score inside and out, stellar team defense and postseason experience after beating Michigan State 90-81 as a No. 15 seed and 16.5-point underdog last season. I feel like MTSU is the "right side," but you certainly aren't getting any bargains.
The pick: Middle Tennessee State pick-em*
[h=2]West Regional[/h]
No. 16 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-22.5)
Thursday, 2 p.m., Salt Lake City
Over/under: 153
Tuley's Take: Gonzaga not only has the best record (32-1) in major college basketball but was also the best bet here in the Vegas sports books at 22-7-1 ATS (75.9 percent). Granted, the Bulldogs are used to laying huge points and still covering the spread, but I'm fading them anyway.
For starters, they no longer have to impress any pollsters, as the goal in the NCAA tournament is to survive and advance, so there's no incentive to run up the score. Besides, it looks like the oddsmakers might finally be catching up to Gonzaga, as it's only 2-3 ATS over the last five games. ESPN Chalk's NCAA Vegas Ranks (which will be published Wednesday) have this line at 20.5. Now, I understand a 2-point differential in such a huge spread doesn't mean as much as if there was a 2-point difference with the spread in single digits, but again it gives me confidence this line is inflated just a tad too much. Mike Daum is the nation's second-leading scorer at 25.3 points per game and he's the key for the Jackrabbits to keep this close. South Dakota State obviously faces a huge challenge in slowing down Gonzaga's offense, but the Jackrabbits do a good job of defending without fouling, and if the Zags are cold, this could get very interesting.
It's crazy to think that South Dakota State could pull the outright upset (and at 40-1 at the South Point, that price seems short considering a No. 16 has never beaten a No. 1 seed in 128 tries), but if they do, you read it here first.
The pick: South Dakota State +22.5*
No. 15 North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (-17)
Thursday, 9:50 p.m., Salt Lake City
Over/under: 147
Lange: The first thing that stands out in this matchup is North Dakota hasn't seen a defense even remotely close to Arizona's. There's a great statistic on kenpom.com that lists the average defensive efficiency of your opponents. North Dakota opponents allowed an average of 1.07 points per possession, which ranks 284th nationally. There were 83 teams that allowed less than a point per possession during the regular season. The Fighting Hawks faced one of those 83 (Cal State Bakersfield, 21st) and scored only 57 points on 68 possessions. And despite such a soft schedule, North Dakota ranks only 200th in offensive efficiency. Arizona faced nine nonconference teams ranked outside the top 100 and allowed an average of only 58.5 PPG. My biggest question is: How do the Wildcats approach this game offensively?
Following the return of open-court scorer Allonzo Trier, who sat the team's first 19 games due to eligibility issues, Arizona was much more comfortable playing up-tempo. In three Pac-12 tournament games, Arizona averaged 87 PPG and 72 possessions. But that small three-game stretch appears to have influenced the betting market, as this total was bet up from 144.5 to 147. North Dakota wasn't even one of the top three offensive teams in the Big Sky conference, which suggests it'll be a struggle to top 60 points. I'm playing this one under.
The pick: under 147*
No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (-12)
Thursday, 9:20 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 146
Tuley's Take: This is an intriguing in-state matchup between the big-school Florida State program and the fledgling Florida Gulf Coast program that is best known as "Dunk City" from its Sweet 16 run as a No. 15 seed in 2013. Brandon Goodwin leads FGCU with 18.2 points per game, and though the Eagles are not very good from 3-point range, that doesn't matter since they attack the rim so well (this team actually had more dunks this season than that 2012-13 team). The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS in their only games that were on the betting boards in Vegas this season, including a one-point loss to Michigan State as 14.5-point underdogs back in November. They also lost by just nine points to another No. 3 seed, Baylor, also in November.
Florida State is a quality team (and clearly faced a much tougher schedule), and Gulf Coast will certainly have to be at its best. But the Seminoles do struggle when teams are able to slow down the pace, and FGCU does that, as it methodically works the ball inside; playing a half-court game works in the Eagles' favor here. Florida State was 18-0 at home but only 7-8 in away and neutral-site games. Florida Gulf Coast is 10-4 away from home against mostly lesser competition, but should be able to hang around in this one.
The pick: Florida Gulf Coast +12*
No. 13 Bucknell Bison vs. No. 4 West Virginia Mountaineers (-13.5)
Thursday, 2:45 p.m., Buffalo
Over/under: 147
Tuley's Take: It's hard to hear the name Bucknell and not think of its 2005 upset of No. 3 Kansas. This year's team is capable, but faces a tough matchup in West Virginia. The Bison are 7-1 ATS in lined games this year, so the oddsmakers haven't quite caught up to them yet. In addition, the Chalk's NCAA Vegas Rankings has this line slightly lower at 12.5. However, I just don't know whether the Bison can keep up with the full-court pressure the entire game. If playing the spread, I would prefer taking Bucknell +8 in the first half and shorten the game to 20 minutes, but I think the better bet looks like the over. West Virginia will certainly be pushing the pace, which can lead to quick baskets with turnovers turning into fast-break opportunities for the opponent if it breaks the press. Both teams are also used to high-scoring games as West Virginia is 16-12-1 with the over and Bucknell is 5-2-1.
The pick: over 147* (lean to Bucknell first half +8)
No. 12 Princeton Tigers vs. No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6.5)
Thursday, 12:15 p.m., Buffalo
Over/under: 134
Tuley's Take: There are plenty of people looking at this game for the annual No. 12 upset of a No. 5 seed (they're 10-10 SU the past five years), but I'm not as high on Princeton. I also respect what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey has done with this program with back-to-back trips to the Elite Eight and taking the Irish to the ACC title game last weekend against Duke. In addition, the NCAA Vegas Ranks have Notre Dame as 7 points better, so I'm not seeing any value in taking Princeton plus the points, let alone winning outright. "Princeton offense" is a cliché for a reason as the Tigers play at a very slow pace (and they're 13-9-1 with the under this season). Notre Dame can be more explosive with their whole lineup capable of lighting it up from 3-point territory, but the Irish can also be methodical at times; this could turn into a half-court game, keeping the score low.
The pick: lean to under 134
No. 11 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 6 Maryland Terrapins (-2)
Thursday, 6:50 p.m., Orlando.
Over/under: 142
Tuley's Take: ESPN's Basketball Power Index has Xavier pulling the outright upset, but I just can't pull the trigger despite Maryland underachieving at 1-5 ATS down the stretch. Xavier has been bitten too often by the injury bug, mostly notably losing point guard Edmond Sumner to an ACL tear on Jan. 29. Trevon Bluiett gives the Musketeers a chance, but I'll still give the edge to Maryland's Melo Trimble and a much deeper supporting cast. Maryland also lost a starter in in 7-footer Michal Cekovsky, and it leaves me wondering how great this matchup could have been. I'll pass with a lean toward the Terrapins.
The pick: lean to Maryland -2
No. 10 VCU Rams vs. No. 7 St. Mary's Gaels (-4.5)
Thursday, 7:20 p.m., Salt Lake City
Over/under: 127
Lange: St. Mary's statistical profile is undeniably good. The Gaels are ultra-efficient on offense and suffocating on defense. The tricky thing is determining whether or not that production will translate against better competition. VCU isn't on the same level as Gonzaga, but the Rams do possess a level of size, speed and athleticism St. Mary's just didn't face much of this season. I do feel it important to point out that in St. Mary's three matchups against Gonzaga, the Zags shot 72-of-124, 58 percent from 2-point range and attempted 55 free throws. The Gaels, meanwhile, shot only 50-of-126, 40 percent from 2-point range and attempted a paltry 28 free throws. St. Mary's is such an enigma because it relies so heavily on outside shooting, rebounding missed shots from opponents and slowing the game down to a crawl. Similar to Virginia, a lot of the Gaels' success hinges on frustrating opponents into mistakes, and in such a low-possession game, those mistakes become magnified.
VCU actually got a primer in what to expect in the Atlantic 10 title game. Rhode Island turned the game into a low-possession slugfest and held the Rams to 31 percent from the floor. VCU was able to hit the glass with 23 offensive rebounds, but that type of success is unlikely here as St. Mary's is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.
St. Mary's is eventually going to run into the type of problems it had against Gonzaga, but I'm not sure it happens here. The Rams become a very average team when not able to dominate the glass and pick up garbage buckets. I prefer the favorite in this one.
The pick: St. Mary's -4.5*
No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores (-1) vs. No. 8 Northwestern Wildcats
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 131
Lange: It took half the season for Vanderbilt to buy into first-year coach Bryce Drew's man-to-man defense. The Commodores had such a difficult time stopping teams early on that they were forced to play zone at times. But down the stretch, this squad morphed in a big way. Vandy allowed only 61.7 PPG over its last nine games, which included wins over Florida (twice) and South Carolina as well as an easy point-spread cover at Kentucky.
Should Northwestern win this game, it's likely to involve the Wildcats playing sound defense. This is not a potent offensive team, as it ranked in the bottom half of the Big Ten in virtually every category including 3-point shooting at just 30.9 percent in league play. I don't necessarily buy into Northwestern and the "just happy to be here" concept, but this is uncharted territory for the Wildcats, and Vanderbilt's defensive overhaul appears to be real. The Commodores are also far more polished on the offensive end, as they led the SEC with a 53.7 effective field goal percentage.
The pick: lean to Vanderbilt -1
