Best- and worst-case scenarios for all tournament teams

Myron MedcalfESPN Staff Writer



The beauty of this glorious crapshoot called the NCAA tournament is that anything can happen.


Your team might make it all the way to the Final Four or get sent home after its first game. Here are the worst- and best-case scenarios for each team in the field.
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[h=2]EAST[/h]1. Villanova
Best-case scenario: The defending national champs reign for another year by becoming the first team since Florida in 2006 and 2007 to win back-to-back titles.
Worst-case scenario: The Wildcats fail to reach the Final Four after suffering a loss to a stacked but unpredictable Duke team or a dangerous SMU squad.
2. Duke
Best case: In October, most picked the Blue Devils to win the national championship. That's still an attainable goal for a Duke team that, at its best, can beat any team in the country. In a single-elimination scenario, Duke is the most dangerous team in the field.
Worst case: The Blue Devils fall to the Gamecocks in the second round in Greenville, South Carolina, after Sindarius Thornwell locks up Luke Kennard and South Carolina thrives off the home-court-like vibe.


3. Baylor
Best case: Junior guard Manu Lecomte helps Baylor regain the swagger it had from nonconference play into January, and the Bears face Duke in the Sweet 16.
Worst case: The Bears' late-season struggles continue, and they fail to reach the second weekend.
4. Florida
Best case: Durable guards Kasey Hill, KeVaughn Allen and Canyon Barry lead the Gators to a pair of wins and an appearance in the Sweet 16.
Worst case: With limited interior depth because of John Egbunu's season-ending injury, Florida falls to Virginia in the second round.
5. Virginia
Best case: The team with the most efficient defense in the most powerful league in the country wins two games and gets a date with Villanova -- and a chance to avenge a loss to the Wildcats in January -- but the Cavaliers again fall to the Wildcats in the Sweet 16.
Worst case: Virginia, which struggled to maintain leads after halftime in multiple losses this season, falls in the first round to a UNC-Wilmington team that rarely commits turnovers.
6. SMU
Best case: Semi Ojeleye becomes a hero and catalyst for an SMU squad that boasts the personnel on both ends of the floor to beat Duke in the Sweet 16 and advance to the Elite Eight.
Worst case: Instead of facing February's Baylor in the second round, the Mustangs run into the Bears who played like they did in November and December and go home in the second round.
7. South Carolina
Best case: With a strong backing from Gamecocks fans, Frank Martin's team knocks off Duke in the second round in Greenville.
Worst case: An inconsistent South Carolina squad (3-6 in its past nine games entering the NCAA tournament) fails to advance past Marquette.
8. Wisconsin
Best case: Ethan Happ, Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes anchor a squad that plays like the team that started 10-1 in the Big Ten, beats Virginia Tech in the opening round and advances to rattle Villanova in the second round -- but the Badgers don't advance past the Wildcats.
Worst case: The Badgers squad that has struggled from the 3-point line and surrendered 83 points to Ohio State in the past month falls short in the opening round against Virginia Tech.
9. Virginia Tech
Best case: Zach LeDay (16.3 points per game, 7.4 rebounds per game) and Virginia Tech beat Wisconsin and advance to the second round against Villanova.
Worst case: One of the worst defenses in the ACC gets booted by an efficient Wisconsin team in the first round.
10. Marquette
Best case: The nation's top 3-point shooting team (43 percent) beats South Carolina in Greenville and gives Duke trouble in the second round.
Worst case: The Golden Eagles fail to get their offense off the ground against a South Carolina squad essentially playing in front of a home crowd.
11. USC/ Providence Friars
Best case: Providence or USC will be more battle-tested as a result of their conference schedules, and each boasts wins on par with or better than SMU (and the Trojans beat the Mustangs in November). Either team is capable of outperforming a Mustangs squad that did not face the elite competition in its conference.
Worst case: Neither the Friars nor the Trojans have answer to Ojeleye and lose to the Mustangs in the first round.


12. UNC Wilmington
Best case: Former Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts has UNC Wilmington play carefully and deliberately on every possession, and the Seahawks maneuver past the Cavaliers with a late burst in the first round.
Worst case: UNC Wilmington averages 85.2 points per game, but that won't matter against a defense like Virginia's. Like the bulk of the Cavaliers' opponents outside of the top 50 this season, the Seahawks will quickly realize they can't win because they can't score.
13. East Tennessee State
Best case: Senior guard T.J. Cromer (19.1 PPG) & Co. are aggressive and effective in a single-digit loss to the Gators in the opening round.
Worst case: A Florida team that hasn't lost to a bad team all year suffocates East Tennessee State and enjoys a carefree, double-digit victory.
14. New Mexico State
Best case: The Aggies crash the offensive glass, stay alive on second-chance opportunities and drag Baylor into deep water in the first round but don't secure the win.
Worst case: Baylor corrals New Mexico State early and seizes an insurmountable lead entering the second half of the Aggies' eventual first-round loss.
15. Troy
Best case: Troy keeps Duke below 80 points.
Worst case: Troy allows Duke to hit 100-plus.
16. Mount Saint Mary's
Best case: The goal is to avoid embarrassment.
Worst case: Villanova has three victories of at least 40 points this season. So there's that.

[h=2]MIDWEST[/h]1. Kansas
Best case: Frank Mason III, who should win the Wooden Award, and Josh Jackson lead this gritty, the-game-ain't-over-'til-it's-over Jayhawks team to Bill Self's second national title.
Worst case: The Jayhawks lose to Iowa State for the second time this season, this time in the Sweet 16 in Kansas City, where Cyclones backers will flood the Sprint Center and rival KU's support.


2. Louisville
Best case: Donovan Mitchell, too often overlooked in conversations about the best players in the nation, pulls a Peyton Siva and guides a great defensive team and capable offensive unit to Rick Pitino's third national title.
Worst case: The Cardinals run into Michigan (fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency) or Oklahoma State (No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency) and lose a tight game in the second round when their offense stalls.
3. Oregon
Best case: Despite losing forward Chris Boucher to a season-ending injury, Oregon is still one of America's most athletic and talented teams, capable of rumbling to the Final Four without its injured big man.
Worst case: Jordan Bell, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, gets into early foul trouble in a Sweet 16 matchup, and with Boucher sidelined, Dana Altman's team lacks the depth necessary to advance.
4. Purdue
Best case: Caleb Swanigan, the best big man in the country, draws double-teams and creates space for a Boilermakers team that shoots 40.6 percent from the 3-point line, and they reach the Sweet 16.
Worst case: Purdue gets past Vermont and loses to Iowa State in the second round after the Cyclones play the same small ball that Michigan employed in its two wins over the Boilermakers.
5. Iowa State
Best case: As always, guard Monte Morris is careful with the rock, and the Cyclones reach the Elite Eight after they beat Kansas in the Sweet 16 in Kansas City. The Cyclones (10-2 in their past 12 games) defeated the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse, and they can repeat the feat in Kansas City.
Worst case: A defense that gives up too many easy looks around the rim loses to 6-foot-8 forward Cameron Oliver (15.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.6 blocks per game) and Nevada in the opening round.
6. Creighton
Best case: Sophomore guard Khyri Thomas plays like a star, Creighton gets hot and the Bluejays beat Rhode Island and a short-handed Oregon team to reach the Sweet 16.
Worst case: The Creighton squad that lost to Georgetown by 20 points in January shows up and goes home in the first round.
7. Michigan
Best case: You can't doubt any team that won a Big Ten tournament title after a plane accident. It's not a crazy idea to think a Wolverines squad ranked fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency rides its hot streak to the Elite Eight.
Worst case: The Wolverines lose a shootout to another offensive torch named Oklahoma State in the first round.
8. Miami
Best case: Bruce Brown has a big night and a Miami defense that held Duke to 50 points a few weeks ago comes together to lead Jim Larranaga's squad past Michigan State in the first round.
Worst case: The Miami squad that lost three of its past four games (and failed to score more than 62 points in all three defeats) because it couldn't score hits another funk and loses to Michigan State in the opening round.
9. Michigan State
Best case: Izzo. NCAA tournament. Yes, the Spartans are short-handed, but a Sweet 16 appearance, via miracle win over Kansas in the second round, is feasible because, uh, Tom Izzo.
Worst case: Without Eron Harris, the young Spartans fight hard but lose to the Hurricanes in the first round.
10. Oklahoma State
Best case: This is the most efficient offense in America, and sophomore guard Jawun Evans (19.0 PPG, 38 percent from beyond the arc) is a handful for any opponent, including Louisville. A Sweet 16 run is the ceiling and the roof for the Cowboys.
Worst case: The Cowboys forget to play defense again and get smacked by a hot Michigan team in the opening round.
11. Rhode Island
Best case: E.C. Matthews leads a Rhode Island team riding an eight-game winning streak past two opponents missing key players -- Creighton (Maurice Watson Jr.) and Oregon (Boucher) -- to become this season's Cinderella in the Sweet 16.
Worst case: A team shooting a deplorable 65.7 percent from the free throw line misses its chance against Creighton in the opening round.
12. Nevada
Best case: Iowa State's opponents connect on 47.1 percent of their shots inside the arc, and the Wolf Pack take advantage by spreading the floor and attacking the rim with Cameron Oliver, while hitting their 3-pointers (38.5 percent) to advance past the Cyclones.
Worst case: Monte Morris overwhelms Nevada with his savvy ball control and leadership, sending the Wolf Pack home.
13. Vermont
Best case: Vermont's slow pace, ball rotation and balanced offense -- along with the help of early fouls against Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas -- give Vermont a chance to beat the Boilermakers in the final minutes.
Worst case: Swanigan bulldozes everything Vermont attempts to put in front of him and leads Purdue to an easy win in the first round.
14. Iona
Best case: Iona plays a fast and respectable game against an Oregon team with Final Four potential.
Worst case: Oregon wins by 30.
15. Jacksonville State
Best case: Jacksonville State hits a few shots, takes an early lead against Louisville and Rick Pitino sits his entire starting five and refuses to talk to the unit for the rest of the first half, as the Gamecocks earn national acclaim for their heart.
Worst case: Louisville takes a 20-point lead into halftime and plays its reserves most of the second half.
16. North Carolina Central/UC Davis
Best case: If North Carolina Central's LeVelle Moton coaches a competitive game against Kansas -- keeping the final score to within 15 points -- he could punch his ticket to a new high-major job.
Worst case: Kansas disregards the feeling and emotions of its opponent and puts up 50 in the first half and wins by 35.

[h=2]SOUTH[/h]1. North Carolina
Best case: The ACC's best team finishes what it started last season and wins Roy Williams' third national title with the Tar Heels.
Worst case: I can't see the Tar Heels losing before the Elite Eight, where they might see Malik Monk and the Kentucky squad that beat them in December in Las Vegas or Lonzo Ball and a fluid UCLA squad. That's if they get past Butler -- a team that swept Villanova this season -- in the Sweet 16.
2. Kentucky
Best case: Malik Monk & Co. go all the way and win another national championship for Big Blue Nation.
Worst case: In the second round, the Wildcats fall to a Wichita State squad that has lost one game since Dec. 17.
3. UCLA
Best case: Lonzo Ball leads high-powered UCLA to a national title, and LaVar Ball goes from overbearing, outspoken, what-the-hell-is-he-talking-about father to prophet.
Worst case: After winning at Rupp Arena in December, the Bruins lose to Kentucky in the rematch in the Sweet 16.
4. Butler
Best case: The team that swept Villanova could spread the floor and create problems for North Carolina in a victory that seals a trip to the Elite Eight.
Worst case: The Bulldogs lose to a rugged Minnesota or Middle Tennessee squad in the second round.
5. Minnesota
Best case: Richard Pitino's scrappy top-20 defense, led by shot-blocking terror Reggie Lynch, flows behind Nate Mason's heroics and reaches the Sweet 16.
Worst case: Minnesota feels the loss of injured sharpshooter Akeem Springs when the Gophers can't get their offense rolling late in a loss to Middle Tennessee in the first round.
6. Cincinnati
Best case: Mick Cronin's defensive giants hold Kansas State under 60 points before frustrating UCLA in a single-digit loss in the second round.
Worst case: An up-and-down offense (34.3 percent from the 3-point line) costs Cincinnati in its opening-round loss.
7. Dayton
Best case: Charles Cooke has a big night, and Archie Miller's squad locks up Wichita State to advance to the second round.
Worst case: The Flyers get pummeled by a Wichita State squad that wrecked the Missouri Valley Conference.
8. Arkansas
Best case: Mike Anderson's Razorbacks play disciplined basketball (talking to you, Moses Kingsley), and Jaylen Barford collects 15 points or more in a win over a hot Seton Hall squad.
Worst case: Arkansas' shaky defense -- which surrendered 83 points in a loss to Missouri earlier this season -- costs the Razorbacks again in a loss to Seton Hall in the opening round.
9. Seton Hall
Best case: Angel Delgado (15.3 PPG, 13.1 RPG) leads a soaring Seton Hall squad (6-2 in its past eight games) to a win over Arkansas in the opening round before the Pirates give North Carolina a scare in the second round. Seton Hall beat Butler and Creighton this season and nearly topped Villanova in the Big East tournament, so a Sweet 16 run isn't crazy.
Worst case: A turnover-prone Seton Hall squad that can't make its free throws (64.3 percent) and struggles from the 3-point line loses to Arkansas in the first round.
10. Wichita State
Best case: Wichita State plays angry in wins over Dayton and an upset of a Kentucky team that's just one bad Malik Monk night from an early exit.
Worst case: The Shockers don't have a true signature victory this season, and it shows as they crumble against a Flyers team that finished 9-2 in their past 11 games.
11. Kansas State
Best case: Kansas State beat better teams (West Virginia, Baylor) during the regular season. The Wildcats are capable of defeating Cincinnati and putting UCLA on the ropes in the second round.
Worst case: If you can't score, you can't win. Despite tallying 95 points in a win over Wake Forest in Dayton, K-State's offense might have trouble in a loss to Cincinnati.
12. Middle Tennessee
Best case: Giddy Potts (15.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG) leads one of the field's most experienced and balanced teams (top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency) to the Sweet 16.
Worst case: Minnesota -- which plays defense like Tasmanian devils -- boots Middle Tennessee in a lopsided win in the first round.
13. Winthrop
Best case: Keon Johnson (22.5 PPG) scores 35 points, and Winthrop battles Butler in the first round.
Worst case: The Eagles go into halftime down 20 points in a beatdown.
14. Kent State
Best case: UCLA plays its worst game of the year, and Kent State is within single digits in the last 10 minutes.
Worst case: UCLA scores 100 points and advances easily.
15. Northern Kentucky
Best case: John Brannen's squad falls to Kentucky in the opening round by less than 20 points and gets a recruiting boost for its efforts.
Worst case: Northern Kentucky loses by 40.
16. Texas Southern
Best case: Mike Davis already wins by making his second NCAA tournament appearance at Texas Southern. A solid showing against a national title contender would be a plus.
Worst case: The Tigers get stomped by last year's national runner-up. No big deal.

[h=2]WEST[/h]1. Gonzaga
Best case: Mark Few's best defensive team -- also his deepest -- ends a special season atop the podium in Glendale, Arizona, as the national champion.
Worst case: The Zags run into West Virginia's buzz saw or Notre Dame's potent offense and go home in the Sweet 16.
2. Arizona
Best case: More confetti after the Wildcats win the national championship.
Worst case: Freshman forward Lauri Markkanen's slump from the 3-point line returns as Arizona loses in the Sweet 16 to a squad with the size and athleticism on the perimeter to disrupt the Wildcats.
3. Florida State
Best case: NBA prospects Dwayne Bacon and Jonathan Isaac help Leonard Hamilton's squad win two games before Florida State battles Arizona in a tough Sweet 16 loss.
Worst case: A Seminoles squad that finished 3-7 in its past 10 games outside Tallahassee squeezes by Florida Gulf Coast's Dunk City in the first round but fails to reach the second weekend.
4. West Virginia
Best case: Bob Huggins' squad mauls its way to a matchup against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, where the Mountaineers apply pressure the Bulldogs have not faced in three months, pull off the upset and advance to the Elite Eight.
Worst case: Notre Dame refuses to buckle against West Virginia's tactics in the second round and sends the Mountaineers home.
5. Notre Dame
Best case: A Notre Dame squad that is No. 1 in turnover rate and free throw percentage and that has beat Louisville, Virginia and Florida State (twice) gets hot now that it's outside the vicious ACC and earns an Elite Eight matchup against Arizona after upsetting Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
Worst case: Notre Dame loses its mojo in a loss to West Virginia in the second round.
6. Maryland
Best case: Melo Trimble puts the Terrapins on his shoulders and carries them to the Sweet 16.
Worst case: The Terps are not a good free throw shooting team and end up in a close game against a dangerous Xavier team, only to lose the matchup at the line.7. Saint Mary's
Best case: Saint Mary's uses its frontcourt size and skill to topple VCU in the first round and challenges Arizona in the second round.
Worst case: The Gaels encounter problems on the perimeter against VCU's athletic guards, who shut down their offense in a loss.
8. Northwestern
Best case: Northwestern's opponents only average a 43.9 percent inside the arc -- 18th in the country. That's why the fairy tale continues as the Wildcats pressure Vanderbilt and fight Gonzaga in a nail-biter in the second round.
Worst case: A Northwestern squad that has gone 5-7 in its past 12 games fails to handle Vanderbilt's versatility.
9. Vanderbilt
Best case: Luke Kornet, a 7-footer who made 38 percent of his 3-point attempts in SEC play, leads Vandy to a win over a Northwestern squad that lost a lot of steam in the past month.
Worst case: Vandy loses to a battle-tested Northwestern team.
10. VCU
Best case: VCU clogs Saint Mary's offense for 40 minutes and wins a thriller before facing Arizona in the second round.
Worst case: The Rams stumble into a Gaels team with a rare personnel alignment that they can't quite solve in a first-round loss.
11. Xavier
Best case: Trevon Bluiett (18.1 PPG) puts together a pair of 20-point efforts in wins over Maryland and Florida State to guide Xavier to an unlikely Sweet 16 run.
Worst case: Xavier's defense (74th in adjusted defensive efficiency) can't handle Maryland, and the Musketeers lose in the first round.
12. Princeton
Best case: Princeton (336th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com) slows the game down and enters the final five minutes tied with Notre Dame before the Fighting Irish finish strong.
Worst case: The Irish rock the Tigers with an early run, and Princeton never recovers.
13. Bucknell
Best case: Bucknell gets hot from the 3-point line, the way it did in a nonconference win over Vanderbilt (42 percent), and nearly shocks the world.
Worst case: Before the game, Bucknell learns former Bison star Mike Muscala has, in fact, exhausted his eligibility. Then the Bison lose to West Virginia by 20-plus in the opening round.
14. Florida Gulf Coast
<article class="ad-300"></article>Best case Dunk City attacks the rim (55.5 percent inside the arc, 14th in the country) and makes its opening-round matchup against Florida State very interesting.
Worst case: The Seminoles' advantage in athleticism turns their game against the Eagles into a laugher by halftime.

15. North Dakota
Best case: Brian Jones' squad keeps the game against Arizona within 15 points.
Worst case: The Wildcats' Allonzo Trier and Lauri Markkanen flow early with an inside-outside attack that the Fighting Hawks can't handle.
16. South Dakota State
Best case: Mike Daum (25.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG) has a monster game, and South Dakota State threatens to pull off the first 16-1 upset before Gonzaga pulls away late.
Worst case: The Zags send the Jackrabbits home with a double-digit defeat.