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Thread: Most meaningful stats OF the tourney...

  1. #1 Most meaningful stats OF the tourney... 
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    ACC 2-13 ATS
    Big E 4-6
    Pac 12 5-2-2
    SEC 6-3-2
    Big 10 8-4
    Big 12 7-4

    A couple of losses for a few teams ATS were laying 21-27 points and the teams didn't cover, missed by a few points I do not hold that against them when I consider my wagers

    I jumped in against ACC early I had a feeling they were overrated and then went with Big 12, SEC and Pac 12 Saturday & Sunday, did not react quickly enough to BE and Big 10

    This is the best way to win, no one ever mentions it, I did in a thread before the tourney said I thought ACC would be overrated by Vegas.

    I quit posting football or basketball it takes too much to get the picks up in time and jinxes me, too...

    This will not all apply in the next round, everything is adjusted and teams from winning conferences are mostly playing each other... but remember this for next year.

    Good luck!
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  2. #2  
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    This doesn't happen every year like this....

    I wouldn't even count on this for next year.

    Just saying....
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by varkeyboy View Post
    This doesn't happen every year like this....

    I wouldn't even count on this for next year.

    Just saying....
    I know. But it pays off every year to some extent. You have to be careful not to overplay it.
    But it worked well this year, today, for example, winning conference SEC & Big 10 teams (Ark & SC & Mich) vs ACC (NC, Duke, Louisville) were gold, worthy of large wagers. After I get a feel for the trends I play winning conferences against losing ones for triple or quad bets.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    I know. But it pays off every year to some extent. You have to be careful not to overplay it.
    But it worked well this year, today, for example, winning conference SEC & Big 10 teams (Ark & SC & Mich) vs ACC (NC, Duke, Louisville) were gold, worthy of large wagers. After I get a feel for the trends I play winning conferences against losing ones for triple or quad bets.
    I wouldn't count too much on this. It can come to bite u in the ass. Again, just my opinion. But i can't ever bank on this trend


    Good luck to you Serbone.
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  5. #5  
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    ACC played 17 gms so far.
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrubs View Post
    ACC played 17 gms so far.
    2-13

    Tues bubble game WF lost and lost ATS
    Thurs:
    ND won but lost ATS
    VA won but lost ATS
    Fla St won but lost ATS
    VT lost game and ATS
    Fri:
    NC won and covered
    Louis won lost ATS
    Miami lost game and ATS
    Duke won and covered
    Sat:
    ND lost and ATS
    VA lost and ATS
    Fla St lost and ATS
    Sun:
    Louisville lost game and ATS
    NC won but lost ATS
    Duke lost and lost ATS

    Tell me what I missed
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by varkeyboy View Post
    I wouldn't count too much on this. It can come to bite u in the ass. Again, just my opinion. But i can't ever bank on this trend


    Good luck to you Serbone.
    No it always works if you play it carefully, some years it is limited, this year it was absolute GOLD. ACC & BE were vastly overrated. BE was 2-6 until X and Butler closed with wins. I stayed away from X but unfortunately went against Butler with MTS.
    What I laugh about is not one poster (to my knowledge) pointed it out on this board.
    ACC started out 0-5 ATS, then they went to 2-7, that is meaningful.
    No one mentions it.
    People here just pick games with no rationale. No matchup issues, motivation, stats, anything to separate a pick from the fray.
    Sure, a few do well (Willie...) but no one picks for example Cal Bakersfield in the NIT and says Cal is deflated since they missed the NCAA's whereas Bakersfield won their league and missed but is still pumped to play the big state school Pac 12 Cal, Cal's coach is LAME DUCK so the team is deflated, Cal's best player Byrd is OUT, Cal has bad offense to begin with so take the 9 points. Later, Rapp was out, the top big man and other scorer and miraculously a poster pointed it out but it was 10:30 EST too late for us with locals to do anything about it as the line dropped to 6.
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  8. #8  
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    omg! It's Captain Hindsight! Oh great Captain Hindsight, you had that cal bakersfield hindsight-capped to a T! By the time you were done watching that game, you knew bakersfield would be a great bet! Well done, captain
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  9. #9  
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    Nothing ALWAYS works. I will agree certain conferences are overrated and lines shaded due to public perception. But this is just one aspect of handicapping. And basically saying everyone is just throwing darts is a load of bullshit
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnybets View Post
    omg! It's Captain Hindsight! Oh great Captain Hindsight, you had that cal bakersfield hindsight-capped to a T! By the time you were done watching that game, you knew bakersfield would be a great bet! Well done, captain
    Look up the thread a poster pointed out Rapp was out, too, I thanked him and said it was a great bet.
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by JF711 View Post
    Nothing ALWAYS works. I will agree certain conferences are overrated and lines shaded due to public perception. But this is just one aspect of handicapping. And basically saying everyone is just throwing darts is a load of bullshit
    It ALWAYS gets a few early wins but then it usually fades. Like yesterday, SEC covered easily against top notch team like NC and Duke, usually at least one of the top seed favorites wins in a blowout in this 2nd game spot but yesterday the SEC/ACC dogs form held completely, wire to wire ATS.
    The thing is you see a few early games and one or two conferences are covering and a few are getting hammered, you jump in and it pays off. Then, usually it tapers off so you are smart to be careful and not go with it all the way. This year it paid off in droves, ACC and BE were terrible, Pac 12 and SEC did suprisingly well.
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by JF711 View Post
    Nothing ALWAYS works. I will agree certain conferences are overrated and lines shaded due to public perception. But this is just one aspect of handicapping. And basically saying everyone is just throwing darts is a load of bullshit
    +1

    Ya, i am throwing darts and made a killing Thursday - Sunday. GO FIGURE, JF!

    If you knew this was going on.........or if you were making a good chunk off of these wagers......where are the official plays posted here? No point in coming in here and saying everyone is throwing darts blah blah....when you came in w/ some trends after the fact. Not doggin on what you're seeing or what you're winning on......but if you saw something like this and you're winning....then post your plays. Simple.
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  13. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by varkeyboy View Post
    +1

    Ya, i am throwing darts and made a killing Thursday - Sunday. GO FIGURE, JF!

    If you knew this was going on.........or if you were making a good chunk off of these wagers......where are the official plays posted here? No point in coming in here and saying everyone is throwing darts blah blah....when you came in w/ some trends after the fact. Not doggin on what you're seeing or what you're winning on......but if you saw something like this and you're winning....then post your plays. Simple.
    HA I mentioned I quit posting too much pressure to get things in early and I jinx myself, I swear.
    I do not say everybody is throwing darts, I just say NO USEFUL handicapping info is usually exchanged. No write ups. So why TF should I go by some poster who posts picks without any rationale?
    It is the culture here to just post. And then argue about 1) the poster's line and 2) the poster's record. Helps nobody.
    You totally miss my point.
    Why should I provide picks with write ups when nobody else does? Broken culture here.
    Good luck.
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    HA I mentioned I quit posting too much pressure to get things in early and I jinx myself, I swear.
    I do not say everybody is throwing darts, I just say NO USEFUL handicapping info is usually exchanged. No write ups. So why TF should I go by some poster who posts picks without any rationale?
    It is the culture here to just post. And then argue about 1) the poster's line and 2) the poster's record. Helps nobody.
    You totally miss my point.
    Why should I provide picks with write ups when nobody else does? Broken culture here.
    Good luck.
    I'm just a useless browser of the forum, I was ragging on you at first, but I really agree with you here. It's bizarre how many posters here don't even post a record, no accountability whatsoever. And rarely any form of a write up. Pretty worthless if you think about it. It's like a few people didnt bother to keep a record, then other people who probably usually lose more than they win, figured this was the place for them, so they can post without keeping a record lol. Without record keeping, you get jagoffs like Biggs, who bet on 60ish games this season and said his record is like 250-170 or something hahahhha
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnybets View Post
    I'm just a useless browser of the forum, I was ragging on you at first, but I really agree with you here. It's bizarre how many posters here don't even post a record, no accountability whatsoever. And rarely any form of a write up. Pretty worthless if you think about it. It's like a few people didnt bother to keep a record, then other people who probably usually lose more than they win, figured this was the place for them, so they can post without keeping a record lol. Without record keeping, you get jagoffs like Biggs, who bet on 60ish games this season and said his record is like 250-170 or something hahahhha
    +1
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    HA I mentioned I quit posting too much pressure to get things in early and I jinx myself, I swear.
    I do not say everybody is throwing darts, I just say NO USEFUL handicapping info is usually exchanged. No write ups. So why TF should I go by some poster who posts picks without any rationale?
    It is the culture here to just post. And then argue about 1) the poster's line and 2) the poster's record. Helps nobody.
    You totally miss my point.
    Why should I provide picks with write ups when nobody else does? Broken culture here.
    Good luck.
    Ummmm....ok.
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    2-13

    Tues bubble game WF lost and lost ATS
    Thurs:
    ND won but lost ATS
    VA won but lost ATS
    Fla St won but lost ATS
    VT lost game and ATS
    Fri:
    NC won and covered
    Louis won lost ATS
    Miami lost game and ATS
    Duke won and covered
    Sat:
    ND lost and ATS
    VA lost and ATS
    Fla St lost and ATS
    Sun:
    Louisville lost game and ATS
    NC won but lost ATS
    Duke lost and lost ATS

    Tell me what I missed
    my bad.

    sorry...i included NIT gms for Clemson and Ga. Tech
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