[h=1]How to bet every Sweet 16 game[/h]Dave TuleyAndrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NCAA tournament resumes with the Sweet 16 games this Thursday and Friday.
And the Sweet 16 survivors weren't the only winners over the weekend. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley went 9-3 (75 percent) with ATS best bets as he went 3-0 on Thursday, 2-1 on Friday, 2-1 in Saturday and 2-1 on Sunday. Tuley's over/under best bets haven't fared as well at 1-2 ATS.
Lange rebounded in the second round at 2-0 with his O/U best bets and is 4-3 for the tournament. He's 3-1 with ATS best bets, as he was 3-0 in the first round and lost his only play in the second round.
Tuley and Lange are a combined 17-9 (65.4 percent) ATS on best bets, so here's hoping the winning continues this weekend. Here are our best bets for every Sweet 16 game.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday morning. Times are Eastern.
[h=2]Thursday's games[/h]
No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-1) vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
Thursday, 7:05 p.m., Kansas City, Missouri
Over/under: 148
Tuley's take: It's kind of a surprise to see a No. 7 seed favored over a No. 3 seed, but Michigan is the feel-good story of the tournament (now that Northwestern is eliminated), and bettors are certainly<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> willing to back the Wolverines. Michigan is peaking at the right time with its wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville over the weekend, and the Vegas Power Ratings still have Oregon rated 1 point higher than Michigan, so I think the wrong team is favored. The Ducks have been impressive in picking up the slack after losing the injured Chris Boucher. The Wolverines don't always defend the perimeter well and Oregon is loaded with 3-point shooters; plus, if there's any player I want with the ball in the closing seconds of a close game, it's Oregon's Dillon Brooks. I give the edge to the Ducks, but it's not my strongest opinion of the regional semis.</offer>
The pick: lean to Oregon +1
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3) vs. No. 4 West Virginia Mountaineers
Thursday, 7:35 p.m., San Jose, California
Over/under: 148.5
Tuley's take: In handicapping, it's important to learn from your mistakes (but I've also learned to avoid making knee-jerk reactions and flip-flopping on teams). One of my rare weekend losses was taking Notre Dame against West Virginia. I overrated the Irish's ability to handle the press and underrated the Mountaineers' offense. However, I still think this line is a little short. If fading a No. 1 team, I'd like to be getting a few more points (see next game). If I'm going to play this game, it'll be on the over.
We certainly know the M ountaineers are going to press the pace, and they were 60 percent with the over in the regular season (18-12-1) and have gone over in both tournament games so far as they've scored 86 and 83 points, respectively, with their renewed offense. I'm expecting Gonzaga not to be overwhelmed by the press and willing to run with West Virginia.
The pick: lean to over 148.5
Lange: The Bulldogs have yet to cover a pointspread in two games. The Zags offset a poor offensive performance with suffocating defense in their 66-46 first-round win over South Dakota State, as the Jackrabbits shot only 18-of-58 (31 percent from the floor. Against Northwestern in the second round, Gonzaga jumped out to a 34-12 lead but allowed the Wildcats to make it a game late. It was, however, another solid defensive showing as Northwestern finished just over 40 percent from the field.
West Virginia was in control of both of its victories over Bucknell and Notre Dame. The Mountaineers had semi-comfortable leads that forced the Bison and Fighting Irish to speed up on the offensive end. That's exactly what West Virginia wants and the end result were a lot of fouls (83 combined) and free throws (94 combined).
This game marks a step up in class for both sides. Like Notre Dame, Gonzaga has statistically done a good job taking care of the basketball. The problem is they have yet to face anyone that even comes close to applying West Virginia's on-the-ball pressure. And the Mountaineers were able to exploit Bucknell and Notre Dame's inability to guard one-on-one on the defensive end, something Gonzaga is much better built to handle. I think the extra time to prepare and new venue will assist both defenses. I also think we'll see more of a half-court game, especially if Gonzaga can limit its turnovers. I project this game to be close throughout, which puts me on the under.
Pick: under 148.5
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-5) vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers
Thursday, 9:35 p.m., Kansas City
Over/under: 156.5
Tuley's take: Similar to calling Wisconsin's upset of Villanova, I already handicapped this game before the tournament started when I named Purdue as my best future value bet here at ESPN Chalk last Monday. I obviously knew the Boilermakers would probably have to get past No. 1 Kansas in this round to have a chance at the title, and I'm glad to take the points as insurance. Caleb Swanigan is the star for Purdue and he should have his usual success even against Kansas' frontline, but I've been even more impressed with the way the rest of the Boilermakers pass the ball and work for the best shot.
To see how these teams have fared against common opponents, we just have to look to their wins this past weekend: Purdue beat the Big 12's Iowa State while Kansas beat the Big Ten's Michigan State. Well, Purdue routed Michigan State twice while Kansas split with Iowa State, including losing at home to the Cyclones. Purdue should be confident it can do the same (though this is in Kansas City, Missouri, instead of Kansas).
The pick: Purdue +5*
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) vs. No. 11 Xavier Musketeers
Thursday, 10:05 p.m., San Jose
Over/under: 145
Tuley's take: Xavier pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the weekend (+280 on the money line) over No. 3 Florida State. I kept hearing how the Seminoles were bigger and more talented, yet the Musketeers had no problem matchup up with them and dominating. Xavier again faces a bigger team (and presumably more talented) in Arizona and that experience will help them here. Trevon Bluiett is the go-to guy for Xavier and if any player can step up and take over this game, it's him. But while Bluiett's also had help from his supporting cast -- including Kaiser Gates' 3-pointers and Sean O'Mara's inside game coming off the bench -- the Musketeers' best chance to keep this close is a defense that can zone up as well as play man-to-man. They'll probably pack in the zone like they did against FSU to limit Arizona's guards from penetrating or feeding the big men inside. Now, Arizona is very deep and talented, so I'm not as confident in an outright upset, but I love that we're getting 7.5 points, especially as the Vegas Power Ratings have Arizona as only 3.5 points better.
The pick: Xavier +7.5*
[h=2]Friday's games[/h]
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) vs. No. 4 Butler Bulldogs
Friday, 7:05 p.m., Memphis, Tennessee
Over/under: 153
Tuley's take: Butler is no longer the lovable mid-major as it's now in the Big East and was a bully in beating mid-majors Winthrop and Middle Tennessee State to get to the Sweet 16. I'm certainly tempted to the Bulldogs plus all those points (I'll call it a lean, though my ATS leans are 0-4 so that yells "pass" to me), but I'm not sure this year's team can play David to North Carolina's Goliath. In the end, it's going to be hard for the undersized Bulldogs to limit the Tar Heels' second chances on the offensive boards. The far stronger play to me looks like the under.
It's set relatively high at 153, but that's typical of Tar Heel games as they average 84.5 points per game and hung 100 on Texas Southern in the first round, plus the public loves to bet them to go over. However, those "over"-expectations have led North Carolina to a 21-14-1 (60 percent) under record, including going well under 165.5 in its 72-65 win over Arkansas on Sunday. Butler played Saturday, so its players and coaches should have learned a lot from watching how Arkansas played UNC and I expect a similar type of game here.
The pick: under 153* (lean to Butler +7.5)
No. 3 Baylor Bears (-3.5) vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
Thursday, 7:25 p.m., New York, New York
Over/under: 135
Tuley's take: Admit it: Whether you were on South Carolina or Duke on Sunday (and many more people were cheering for Duke with a wager or in their brackets), you kept expecting Duke to go on a run at some point and pull out the victory. It was a credit to South Carolina that it held the Blue Devils at arm's length and never let that happen, pulling the upset as a 6.5-point underdog. The Gamecocks now get a Baylor team that has exceeded my expectations; I expected the Bears to lose to New Mexico State (or at least not cover). Our Vegas Power Ratings have it right at this line of Baylor -3.5, so I don't see value on the side, but I'm liking the over more and more (it opened 137 and is down to 135). I guess I can understand the move as Baylor is 16-12-1 with the under and South Carolina is 17-13-1, but after watching both teams this weekend I'm willing to fade the move.
Both teams average around 72.5 points per game on the season, yet both went 2-0 with the over last weekend and Baylor's 82 points against USC was the least these two teams scored in their four combined games. I've nearly talked myself into making it a best bet, and if the total continues to drop you can rest assured that I've played it myself.
The pick: lean to over 135
No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (PK) vs. No. 3 UCLA Bruins
Friday, 9:35 p.m., Memphis
Over/under: 165.5
Tuley's take: It makes sense for this 2-3 matchup to be pick-em. Kentucky is 31-5, UCLA is 31-4. Kentucky is 18-17-1 ATS, UCLA is 17-18-1 ATS. Both teams are popular teams with the public with major fan bases willing to back them. Kentucky is usually the home of the one-and-done superstars, but UCLA counters with Lonzo Ball, who keeps making his dad (and the family brand) look good. But UCLA is more than Ball as he's actually only the Bruins' third-leading scorer behind TJ Leaf and Bryce Alford (though Ball did lead the way with 19 points against Cincinnati). Obviously, the Wildcats are just as loaded, but Malik Monk is the player to fear above all others.
UCLA hasn't played strong defense all year, but if they can force Monk to give up the ball (and keep him from getting the ball off screens), they have a better-than-average chance. And if Monk goes off, the Bruins still have the firepower to outscore him.
The pick: UCLA pick-em*
No. 4 Florida Gators (-2) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers
Thursday, 9:55 p.m., New York
Over/under: 131.5
Tuley's take: Wisconsin is right where I expected it to be after two rounds, especially after calling the Badgers a longshot at 80-1 in our NCAA value bets column last Monday. Their senior leaders Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes led the way in the upset of 65-62 of No. 1 overall seed Villanova and I think it would have been easier if Koenig hadn't been sidelined with foul trouble. But it all worked out fine and now they face Florida.
The number looks a little short, though it makes more sense if you're with me in believing Wisconsin should have been a No. 5 or 6 seed. I was impressed with Florida's 65-39 rout of Virginia, but I still believe I have the better overall team with the Badgers. Both teams play solid defense (which is why the total is the lowest of the Sweet 16), but along with Hayes, sophomore center Ethan Happ gives them an inside edge while I'll take Koenig and Wisconsin's other guards against Florida's backcourt.
The pick: Wisconsin +2
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NCAA tournament resumes with the Sweet 16 games this Thursday and Friday.
And the Sweet 16 survivors weren't the only winners over the weekend. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley went 9-3 (75 percent) with ATS best bets as he went 3-0 on Thursday, 2-1 on Friday, 2-1 in Saturday and 2-1 on Sunday. Tuley's over/under best bets haven't fared as well at 1-2 ATS.
Lange rebounded in the second round at 2-0 with his O/U best bets and is 4-3 for the tournament. He's 3-1 with ATS best bets, as he was 3-0 in the first round and lost his only play in the second round.
Tuley and Lange are a combined 17-9 (65.4 percent) ATS on best bets, so here's hoping the winning continues this weekend. Here are our best bets for every Sweet 16 game.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday morning. Times are Eastern.
[h=2]Thursday's games[/h]
No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-1) vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
Thursday, 7:05 p.m., Kansas City, Missouri
Over/under: 148
Tuley's take: It's kind of a surprise to see a No. 7 seed favored over a No. 3 seed, but Michigan is the feel-good story of the tournament (now that Northwestern is eliminated), and bettors are certainly<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> willing to back the Wolverines. Michigan is peaking at the right time with its wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville over the weekend, and the Vegas Power Ratings still have Oregon rated 1 point higher than Michigan, so I think the wrong team is favored. The Ducks have been impressive in picking up the slack after losing the injured Chris Boucher. The Wolverines don't always defend the perimeter well and Oregon is loaded with 3-point shooters; plus, if there's any player I want with the ball in the closing seconds of a close game, it's Oregon's Dillon Brooks. I give the edge to the Ducks, but it's not my strongest opinion of the regional semis.</offer>
The pick: lean to Oregon +1
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3) vs. No. 4 West Virginia Mountaineers
Thursday, 7:35 p.m., San Jose, California
Over/under: 148.5
Tuley's take: In handicapping, it's important to learn from your mistakes (but I've also learned to avoid making knee-jerk reactions and flip-flopping on teams). One of my rare weekend losses was taking Notre Dame against West Virginia. I overrated the Irish's ability to handle the press and underrated the Mountaineers' offense. However, I still think this line is a little short. If fading a No. 1 team, I'd like to be getting a few more points (see next game). If I'm going to play this game, it'll be on the over.
We certainly know the M ountaineers are going to press the pace, and they were 60 percent with the over in the regular season (18-12-1) and have gone over in both tournament games so far as they've scored 86 and 83 points, respectively, with their renewed offense. I'm expecting Gonzaga not to be overwhelmed by the press and willing to run with West Virginia.
The pick: lean to over 148.5
Lange: The Bulldogs have yet to cover a pointspread in two games. The Zags offset a poor offensive performance with suffocating defense in their 66-46 first-round win over South Dakota State, as the Jackrabbits shot only 18-of-58 (31 percent from the floor. Against Northwestern in the second round, Gonzaga jumped out to a 34-12 lead but allowed the Wildcats to make it a game late. It was, however, another solid defensive showing as Northwestern finished just over 40 percent from the field.
West Virginia was in control of both of its victories over Bucknell and Notre Dame. The Mountaineers had semi-comfortable leads that forced the Bison and Fighting Irish to speed up on the offensive end. That's exactly what West Virginia wants and the end result were a lot of fouls (83 combined) and free throws (94 combined).
This game marks a step up in class for both sides. Like Notre Dame, Gonzaga has statistically done a good job taking care of the basketball. The problem is they have yet to face anyone that even comes close to applying West Virginia's on-the-ball pressure. And the Mountaineers were able to exploit Bucknell and Notre Dame's inability to guard one-on-one on the defensive end, something Gonzaga is much better built to handle. I think the extra time to prepare and new venue will assist both defenses. I also think we'll see more of a half-court game, especially if Gonzaga can limit its turnovers. I project this game to be close throughout, which puts me on the under.
Pick: under 148.5
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-5) vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers
Thursday, 9:35 p.m., Kansas City
Over/under: 156.5
Tuley's take: Similar to calling Wisconsin's upset of Villanova, I already handicapped this game before the tournament started when I named Purdue as my best future value bet here at ESPN Chalk last Monday. I obviously knew the Boilermakers would probably have to get past No. 1 Kansas in this round to have a chance at the title, and I'm glad to take the points as insurance. Caleb Swanigan is the star for Purdue and he should have his usual success even against Kansas' frontline, but I've been even more impressed with the way the rest of the Boilermakers pass the ball and work for the best shot.
To see how these teams have fared against common opponents, we just have to look to their wins this past weekend: Purdue beat the Big 12's Iowa State while Kansas beat the Big Ten's Michigan State. Well, Purdue routed Michigan State twice while Kansas split with Iowa State, including losing at home to the Cyclones. Purdue should be confident it can do the same (though this is in Kansas City, Missouri, instead of Kansas).
The pick: Purdue +5*
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) vs. No. 11 Xavier Musketeers
Thursday, 10:05 p.m., San Jose
Over/under: 145
Tuley's take: Xavier pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the weekend (+280 on the money line) over No. 3 Florida State. I kept hearing how the Seminoles were bigger and more talented, yet the Musketeers had no problem matchup up with them and dominating. Xavier again faces a bigger team (and presumably more talented) in Arizona and that experience will help them here. Trevon Bluiett is the go-to guy for Xavier and if any player can step up and take over this game, it's him. But while Bluiett's also had help from his supporting cast -- including Kaiser Gates' 3-pointers and Sean O'Mara's inside game coming off the bench -- the Musketeers' best chance to keep this close is a defense that can zone up as well as play man-to-man. They'll probably pack in the zone like they did against FSU to limit Arizona's guards from penetrating or feeding the big men inside. Now, Arizona is very deep and talented, so I'm not as confident in an outright upset, but I love that we're getting 7.5 points, especially as the Vegas Power Ratings have Arizona as only 3.5 points better.
The pick: Xavier +7.5*
[h=2]Friday's games[/h]
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) vs. No. 4 Butler Bulldogs
Friday, 7:05 p.m., Memphis, Tennessee
Over/under: 153
Tuley's take: Butler is no longer the lovable mid-major as it's now in the Big East and was a bully in beating mid-majors Winthrop and Middle Tennessee State to get to the Sweet 16. I'm certainly tempted to the Bulldogs plus all those points (I'll call it a lean, though my ATS leans are 0-4 so that yells "pass" to me), but I'm not sure this year's team can play David to North Carolina's Goliath. In the end, it's going to be hard for the undersized Bulldogs to limit the Tar Heels' second chances on the offensive boards. The far stronger play to me looks like the under.
It's set relatively high at 153, but that's typical of Tar Heel games as they average 84.5 points per game and hung 100 on Texas Southern in the first round, plus the public loves to bet them to go over. However, those "over"-expectations have led North Carolina to a 21-14-1 (60 percent) under record, including going well under 165.5 in its 72-65 win over Arkansas on Sunday. Butler played Saturday, so its players and coaches should have learned a lot from watching how Arkansas played UNC and I expect a similar type of game here.
The pick: under 153* (lean to Butler +7.5)
No. 3 Baylor Bears (-3.5) vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
Thursday, 7:25 p.m., New York, New York
Over/under: 135
Tuley's take: Admit it: Whether you were on South Carolina or Duke on Sunday (and many more people were cheering for Duke with a wager or in their brackets), you kept expecting Duke to go on a run at some point and pull out the victory. It was a credit to South Carolina that it held the Blue Devils at arm's length and never let that happen, pulling the upset as a 6.5-point underdog. The Gamecocks now get a Baylor team that has exceeded my expectations; I expected the Bears to lose to New Mexico State (or at least not cover). Our Vegas Power Ratings have it right at this line of Baylor -3.5, so I don't see value on the side, but I'm liking the over more and more (it opened 137 and is down to 135). I guess I can understand the move as Baylor is 16-12-1 with the under and South Carolina is 17-13-1, but after watching both teams this weekend I'm willing to fade the move.
Both teams average around 72.5 points per game on the season, yet both went 2-0 with the over last weekend and Baylor's 82 points against USC was the least these two teams scored in their four combined games. I've nearly talked myself into making it a best bet, and if the total continues to drop you can rest assured that I've played it myself.
The pick: lean to over 135
No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (PK) vs. No. 3 UCLA Bruins
Friday, 9:35 p.m., Memphis
Over/under: 165.5
Tuley's take: It makes sense for this 2-3 matchup to be pick-em. Kentucky is 31-5, UCLA is 31-4. Kentucky is 18-17-1 ATS, UCLA is 17-18-1 ATS. Both teams are popular teams with the public with major fan bases willing to back them. Kentucky is usually the home of the one-and-done superstars, but UCLA counters with Lonzo Ball, who keeps making his dad (and the family brand) look good. But UCLA is more than Ball as he's actually only the Bruins' third-leading scorer behind TJ Leaf and Bryce Alford (though Ball did lead the way with 19 points against Cincinnati). Obviously, the Wildcats are just as loaded, but Malik Monk is the player to fear above all others.
UCLA hasn't played strong defense all year, but if they can force Monk to give up the ball (and keep him from getting the ball off screens), they have a better-than-average chance. And if Monk goes off, the Bruins still have the firepower to outscore him.
The pick: UCLA pick-em*
No. 4 Florida Gators (-2) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers
Thursday, 9:55 p.m., New York
Over/under: 131.5
Tuley's take: Wisconsin is right where I expected it to be after two rounds, especially after calling the Badgers a longshot at 80-1 in our NCAA value bets column last Monday. Their senior leaders Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes led the way in the upset of 65-62 of No. 1 overall seed Villanova and I think it would have been easier if Koenig hadn't been sidelined with foul trouble. But it all worked out fine and now they face Florida.
The number looks a little short, though it makes more sense if you're with me in believing Wisconsin should have been a No. 5 or 6 seed. I was impressed with Florida's 65-39 rout of Virginia, but I still believe I have the better overall team with the Badgers. Both teams play solid defense (which is why the total is the lowest of the Sweet 16), but along with Hayes, sophomore center Ethan Happ gives them an inside edge while I'll take Koenig and Wisconsin's other guards against Florida's backcourt.
The pick: Wisconsin +2
