[h=1]Best Sweet 16 contrarian bets[/h]David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
When discussing contrarian betting during March Madness, there are many strategies that can be used to extract value. Bettors place excessive importance on recent results, and will often overvalue teams following an impressive victory. That's particularly true in the NCAA tournament, where every matchup is picked apart and intensely scrutinized.
With long layoffs and fewer games to pick from, public money becomes a larger factor on line movement in these Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games. Football typically dwarfs the popularity of basketball, but the handle for these tournament games is similar to the average NFL game. This influx of money from recreational weekend warriors creates some unique opportunities for our contrarian strategies.
Betting against the public is one of the cornerstone philosophies implemented by Sports Insights, and the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the amount of money wagered. There's also a shift that occurs during the postseason, and casual bettors become increasingly willing to back the underdog.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In last week's column, I explained how bettors could find value by going against the public, backing slow-paced underdogs and capitalizing on artificially inflated spreads. Sportsbooks shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and, assuming books don't receive balancing action from their sharpest bettors, one-sided public betting will continue to inflate the number, which creates additional value for bettors willing to back the unpopular side of a game.
In the first week of the NCAA tournament, fading the public continued to provide value to contrarian bettors. Teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread tickets at our seven contributing sportsbooks went 30-19 ATS (61.2 percent).
During the past 12 years, college basketball favorites have gone 20,487-20,554 ATS (49.9 percent) during the regular season. However, those records improve substantially when they're being avoided by the majority of public bettors.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Regular Season NCAAB Favorites (All Games)</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot></aside>The value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on the game so, naturally, it's more lucrative to bet against the public when the volume of bets increases during March Madness. If more bets are being placed on a game, it's more likely that oddsmakers will be forced to adjust their lines based on an influx of square money.
There's value betting against the public in heavily bet games, so I wanted to focus on regular-season games where the number of bets tracked was above average. As expected, there was more value taking these contrarian favorites (or, if you prefer, fading the trendy underdog).
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Regular Season NCAAB Favorites (All Games)</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tfoot></aside>The data shows there is limited value on contrarian favorites in heavily bet games until we examine teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets. Favorites receiving less than 25 percent of spread bets have covered the spread in roughly two-thirds of their games.
These types of results can be seen across all six major US sports leagues, but there's a dramatic change between the regular season and postseason. In recent years, casual bettors become increasingly willing to take the underdog and hope for a competitive game -- particularly in the NCAA tournament, where there are fewer subpar teams.
Large contrarian favorites (8.5 points or more) have posted a losing record while small contrarian favorites (8 points or fewer) have covered the spread at a 60-percent clip. That makes sense because the smaller the point spread, the greater the significance of every half point.
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<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NCAA Tournament Favorites</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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It's still early in the week and many bettors will wait until right before tipoff to place their wagers, which is why we recommend bettors wait until closer to game time to ensure these games still fit the aforementioned criteria. That said, it's fascinating to see that the public is backing the underdog in half of these matchups.
Sweet 16 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
1. Arizona (-7.5) receiving 49 percent of spread tickets against Xavier
2. North Carolina (-7.5) receiving 44 percent of spread tickets against Butler
3. Kentucky (PK) receiving 33 percent of spread tickets against UCLA
4. Florida (-2) receiving 44 percent of spread tickets against Wisconsin
It's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming days for the latest information.
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</footer>
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
When discussing contrarian betting during March Madness, there are many strategies that can be used to extract value. Bettors place excessive importance on recent results, and will often overvalue teams following an impressive victory. That's particularly true in the NCAA tournament, where every matchup is picked apart and intensely scrutinized.
With long layoffs and fewer games to pick from, public money becomes a larger factor on line movement in these Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games. Football typically dwarfs the popularity of basketball, but the handle for these tournament games is similar to the average NFL game. This influx of money from recreational weekend warriors creates some unique opportunities for our contrarian strategies.
Betting against the public is one of the cornerstone philosophies implemented by Sports Insights, and the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the amount of money wagered. There's also a shift that occurs during the postseason, and casual bettors become increasingly willing to back the underdog.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In last week's column, I explained how bettors could find value by going against the public, backing slow-paced underdogs and capitalizing on artificially inflated spreads. Sportsbooks shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and, assuming books don't receive balancing action from their sharpest bettors, one-sided public betting will continue to inflate the number, which creates additional value for bettors willing to back the unpopular side of a game.
In the first week of the NCAA tournament, fading the public continued to provide value to contrarian bettors. Teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread tickets at our seven contributing sportsbooks went 30-19 ATS (61.2 percent).
During the past 12 years, college basketball favorites have gone 20,487-20,554 ATS (49.9 percent) during the regular season. However, those records improve substantially when they're being avoided by the majority of public bettors.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| PUBLIC BETTING | RECORD ATS | UNITS WON (ROI) |
|---|---|---|
| All Favorites | 20,487-20,554 (49.9%) | -1191.04 (-2.9%) |
| Less than 50% of spread tickets | 4,592-4,653 (49.7%) | -305.01 (-3.3%) |
| Less than 40% of spread tickets | 1,751-1,774 (49.7%) | -116.40 (-3.3%) |
| Less than 35% of spread tickets | 925-919 (50.2%) | -43.76 (-2.4%) |
| Less than 30% of spread tickets | 414-372 (52.7%) | +20.32 (+2.6%) |
| Less than 25% of spread tickets | 151-116 (56.6%) | +26.85 (+10.1%) |
| *Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Regular Season NCAAB Favorites (All Games)</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
There's value betting against the public in heavily bet games, so I wanted to focus on regular-season games where the number of bets tracked was above average. As expected, there was more value taking these contrarian favorites (or, if you prefer, fading the trendy underdog).
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| PUBLIC BETTING | RECORD ATS | UNITS WON (ROI) |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 50% of spread tickets | 1,630-1,642 (49.8%) | -96.80 (-3.0%) |
| Less than 40% of spread tickets | 670-685 (49.4%) | -49.62 (-3.7%) |
| Less than 35% of spread tickets | 351-357 (49.6%) | -25.26 (-3.6%) |
| Less than 30% of spread tickets | 156-131 (54.4%) | +16.74 (+5.8%) |
| Less than 25% of spread tickets | 61-31 (66.3%) | +26.99 (+29.3%) |
| *Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Regular Season NCAAB Favorites (All Games)</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
These types of results can be seen across all six major US sports leagues, but there's a dramatic change between the regular season and postseason. In recent years, casual bettors become increasingly willing to take the underdog and hope for a competitive game -- particularly in the NCAA tournament, where there are fewer subpar teams.
Large contrarian favorites (8.5 points or more) have posted a losing record while small contrarian favorites (8 points or fewer) have covered the spread at a 60-percent clip. That makes sense because the smaller the point spread, the greater the significance of every half point.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
</article>
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| PUBLIC BETTING | RECORD ATS | UNITS WON (ROI) |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 50% of spread tickets | 1,630-1,642 (49.8%) | -96.80 (-3.0%) |
| Less than 40% of spread tickets | 670-685 (49.4%) | -49.62 (-3.7%) |
| Less than 35% of spread tickets | 351-357 (49.6%) | -25.26 (-3.6%) |
| Less than 30% of spread tickets | 156-131 (54.4%) | +16.74 (+5.8%) |
| Less than 25% of spread tickets | 61-31 (66.3%) | +26.99 (+29.3%) |
| *Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">NCAA Tournament Favorites</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
It's still early in the week and many bettors will wait until right before tipoff to place their wagers, which is why we recommend bettors wait until closer to game time to ensure these games still fit the aforementioned criteria. That said, it's fascinating to see that the public is backing the underdog in half of these matchups.
Sweet 16 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
1. Arizona (-7.5) receiving 49 percent of spread tickets against Xavier
2. North Carolina (-7.5) receiving 44 percent of spread tickets against Butler
3. Kentucky (PK) receiving 33 percent of spread tickets against UCLA
4. Florida (-2) receiving 44 percent of spread tickets against Wisconsin
It's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming days for the latest information.
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