[h=1]How to bet Sunday's Elite Eight games[/h]Dave Tuley Andrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS - Here we are with the East and South regional championship games of Sunday portion of the Elite Eight, and ESPN Chalk's college basketball handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange are ready to help with their takes on both games.
This was supposed to be the day where defending champion and No. 1 overall seed Villanova faced No. 2 Duke in the East and No. 1 North Carolina took on No. 2 Kentucky. Neither Villanova nor Duke got out of the round of 32, but we have UNC-UK.
Underdogs went 2-1-1 against the spread in Friday's Sweet 16 games (after also going 2-1-1 ATS Thursday) with South Carolina and Kentucky pulling outright upsets. North Carolina was the only favorite to cover, and the push was in the final game of the night, Florida beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime as a 1-point favorite. Overs and unders split 2-2. For the tournament, heading into Saturday's Elite 8, underdogs were 30-23-2 ATS (56.6 percent) with one game closing pick 'em. Overs still led 32-23-1 (58.2 percent) overall.
Tuley went 1-1 ATS with his best bets Friday with UCLA pick 'em but won with Wisconsin +2 (that was the line when the betting guide was posted, and hopefully followers at least got +1.5 before it dropped to +1 on game day). Tuley is 11-5 (68.8 percent) with ATS best bets for the tournament. Lange didn't have a best bet on Friday, as the Baylor-South Carolina over/under had moved several points, so he just called it a lean (though it won easily). Lange is 5-3 (62.5 percent) with over/under best bets and also 3-1 with ATS best bets.
Note: Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon. Times are Eastern.
[h=3]
[/h][h=2]No. 4 Florida Gators (-3) vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Sunday, 2:20 p.m., New York
Over/under: 135
Tuley: These teams both caught me by surprise during the tournament. I wish I had been prescient enough to foresee South Carolina's 88-81 upset of Duke and also its 70-50 rout of Baylor. Considering No. 10 seed Marquette went off as a 1-point favorite over South Carolina in the first round, the Gamecocks have pulled upsets in all three games, and I haven't been on them a single time.
It's certainly tempting to jump on South Carolina now, but I'm afraid it's too late. For starters, Florida has been just as impressive, especially in its 65-39 rout of Virginia and then its 84-83 overtime win over Wisconsin. Besides, the ESPN Chalk Vegas Power Ratings have Florida 5.5 points better than South Carolina. Now, it can be argued that we've been slow to upgrade South Carolina, but even by adjusting a few points I don't see value in the +3. Both teams excel at defense, so I think that's the stronger play. The thing keeping me from making it a best bet is that both these offenses have been stepping up as well. In the two regular-season meetings between these two schools (which were both won and covered by the home team), one game was 57-53 and the other was 81-66, so choose how you think this one will go.
Pick: Lean to under 135
[h=3]
[/h][h=2]No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats[/h]Sunday, 5:05 p.m., Memphis, Tennessee
Over/under: 159
Lange: Film will be watched, and adjustments will be made, but Kentucky's backcourt and North Carolina's frontcourt were the storylines of the first meeting between these teams, and that will likely be the case again on Sunday. Back in December, the Wildcats won an up-and-down affair (79 possessions) 103-100 in Las Vegas. Kentucky's trio of guards, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, and Isaiah Briscoe combined for 81 points on 31-of-51, 56 percent shooting. North Carolina's frontcourt trio of Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks on Isaiah Hicks netted 56 points on 17-of-30, 57 percent shooting.
The bottom line is UNC has only two players, Joel Berry and part-timer Nate Britt, who are true perimeter defenders. Note that Berry is still nursing an ankle injury. And UK has only one player, Edrice Adebayo, who is a classic post defender. With Derek Willis a pick-and-pop forward, the Wildcats spend much of their time playing four out, one under. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels often go with Berry and a slew of forwards ranging from 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-10. It's this contrast in personnel that played a major role in the NBA-type score of the first meeting.
Kentucky seemed very comfortable to grind in the half court in its win over UCLA. And it wouldn't shock me to see some stretches of zone defense -- particularly from the Wildcats -- in order to combat the endless array of mismatches. That said, UCLA and Butler simply didn't have the athleticism to consistently separate from defenders, get easy looks and earn second chance points. Kentucky and North Carolina have that in spades. The total for the first meeting closed 171. Even adjusting for familiarity and far more intense atmosphere, my numbers still point toward over.
The pick: over 159*
Tuley: Of the four regional finals, this is the matchup everyone was looking for (as East No. 1 Villanova is gone and the rest of the No. 2 seeds are gone). These teams met here in Las Vegas back in December with Kentucky prevailing 103-100 in an Old West shootout. The Wildcats' Malik Monk scored 47 points in that game as North Carolina didn't have an answer, and I'm not sure the Tar Heels do now, either.
But even if Monk doesn't go wild again, he's shown that he can defer to his teammates such as De'Aaron Fox, who dominated UCLA on Friday night with 39 points. Now, both teams are full of players who can take over a game, and the Tar Heels are better in the paint, but I'm still giving the edge to the Wildcats. ESPN Chalk's Vegas Power Ratings have the Tar Heels just 1 point better, so this is a toss-up and worth taking UK with any points.
I also like a factoid passed on by Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information. Kentucky is 4-0 SU and ATS under coach John Calipari as an underdog in the NCAA tournament. You don't often get the Wildcats plus any points, so it pays to pay attention when they do (and we can't help but think Calipari is using this as bulletin-board material, not that teams trying to get to the Final Four need any additional motivation).
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</tbody></aside>I agree with my colleague Andrew Lange that the over looks like the play as I'm also surprised the total is relatively low considering the previous meeting. But I am given pause, as Kentucky is 3-0 with the under and held UCLA to 75 points. I'll stick with the play on the underdog.
Pick: The pick: Kentucky +2.5* (lean to over 159)
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS - Here we are with the East and South regional championship games of Sunday portion of the Elite Eight, and ESPN Chalk's college basketball handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange are ready to help with their takes on both games.
This was supposed to be the day where defending champion and No. 1 overall seed Villanova faced No. 2 Duke in the East and No. 1 North Carolina took on No. 2 Kentucky. Neither Villanova nor Duke got out of the round of 32, but we have UNC-UK.
Underdogs went 2-1-1 against the spread in Friday's Sweet 16 games (after also going 2-1-1 ATS Thursday) with South Carolina and Kentucky pulling outright upsets. North Carolina was the only favorite to cover, and the push was in the final game of the night, Florida beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime as a 1-point favorite. Overs and unders split 2-2. For the tournament, heading into Saturday's Elite 8, underdogs were 30-23-2 ATS (56.6 percent) with one game closing pick 'em. Overs still led 32-23-1 (58.2 percent) overall.
Tuley went 1-1 ATS with his best bets Friday with UCLA pick 'em but won with Wisconsin +2 (that was the line when the betting guide was posted, and hopefully followers at least got +1.5 before it dropped to +1 on game day). Tuley is 11-5 (68.8 percent) with ATS best bets for the tournament. Lange didn't have a best bet on Friday, as the Baylor-South Carolina over/under had moved several points, so he just called it a lean (though it won easily). Lange is 5-3 (62.5 percent) with over/under best bets and also 3-1 with ATS best bets.
Note: Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon. Times are Eastern.
[h=3]
Sunday, 2:20 p.m., New York
Over/under: 135
Tuley: These teams both caught me by surprise during the tournament. I wish I had been prescient enough to foresee South Carolina's 88-81 upset of Duke and also its 70-50 rout of Baylor. Considering No. 10 seed Marquette went off as a 1-point favorite over South Carolina in the first round, the Gamecocks have pulled upsets in all three games, and I haven't been on them a single time.
It's certainly tempting to jump on South Carolina now, but I'm afraid it's too late. For starters, Florida has been just as impressive, especially in its 65-39 rout of Virginia and then its 84-83 overtime win over Wisconsin. Besides, the ESPN Chalk Vegas Power Ratings have Florida 5.5 points better than South Carolina. Now, it can be argued that we've been slow to upgrade South Carolina, but even by adjusting a few points I don't see value in the +3. Both teams excel at defense, so I think that's the stronger play. The thing keeping me from making it a best bet is that both these offenses have been stepping up as well. In the two regular-season meetings between these two schools (which were both won and covered by the home team), one game was 57-53 and the other was 81-66, so choose how you think this one will go.
Pick: Lean to under 135
[h=3]
Over/under: 159
Lange: Film will be watched, and adjustments will be made, but Kentucky's backcourt and North Carolina's frontcourt were the storylines of the first meeting between these teams, and that will likely be the case again on Sunday. Back in December, the Wildcats won an up-and-down affair (79 possessions) 103-100 in Las Vegas. Kentucky's trio of guards, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox, and Isaiah Briscoe combined for 81 points on 31-of-51, 56 percent shooting. North Carolina's frontcourt trio of Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks on Isaiah Hicks netted 56 points on 17-of-30, 57 percent shooting.
The bottom line is UNC has only two players, Joel Berry and part-timer Nate Britt, who are true perimeter defenders. Note that Berry is still nursing an ankle injury. And UK has only one player, Edrice Adebayo, who is a classic post defender. With Derek Willis a pick-and-pop forward, the Wildcats spend much of their time playing four out, one under. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels often go with Berry and a slew of forwards ranging from 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-10. It's this contrast in personnel that played a major role in the NBA-type score of the first meeting.
Kentucky seemed very comfortable to grind in the half court in its win over UCLA. And it wouldn't shock me to see some stretches of zone defense -- particularly from the Wildcats -- in order to combat the endless array of mismatches. That said, UCLA and Butler simply didn't have the athleticism to consistently separate from defenders, get easy looks and earn second chance points. Kentucky and North Carolina have that in spades. The total for the first meeting closed 171. Even adjusting for familiarity and far more intense atmosphere, my numbers still point toward over.
The pick: over 159*
Tuley: Of the four regional finals, this is the matchup everyone was looking for (as East No. 1 Villanova is gone and the rest of the No. 2 seeds are gone). These teams met here in Las Vegas back in December with Kentucky prevailing 103-100 in an Old West shootout. The Wildcats' Malik Monk scored 47 points in that game as North Carolina didn't have an answer, and I'm not sure the Tar Heels do now, either.
But even if Monk doesn't go wild again, he's shown that he can defer to his teammates such as De'Aaron Fox, who dominated UCLA on Friday night with 39 points. Now, both teams are full of players who can take over a game, and the Tar Heels are better in the paint, but I'm still giving the edge to the Wildcats. ESPN Chalk's Vegas Power Ratings have the Tar Heels just 1 point better, so this is a toss-up and worth taking UK with any points.
I also like a factoid passed on by Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information. Kentucky is 4-0 SU and ATS under coach John Calipari as an underdog in the NCAA tournament. You don't often get the Wildcats plus any points, so it pays to pay attention when they do (and we can't help but think Calipari is using this as bulletin-board material, not that teams trying to get to the Final Four need any additional motivation).
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| YEAR | OPPONENT | LINE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | UCLA | +1.5 | Won by 11 |
| 2014 | Louisville | +4.5 | Won by 5 |
| 2014 | Wichita State | +4.5 | Won by 2 |
| 2011 | Ohio State | +6 | Won by 2 |
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Pick: The pick: Kentucky +2.5* (lean to over 159)
