2017 Oakland A's over under73.5 wins??

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[h=2]Best NL "Under" bet[/h][h=3]Chicago Cubs: Under 96.5 wins[/h]Since the end of the Braves' pitching-led dominance in the 1990s, great offenses have tended to be more consistently great year-to-year than pitching staffs. While the best examples of this are the Red Sox and Yankees during the first 10 years of this millennium, the Phillies' five-year run of NL East titles falls into that category as well. Baseball fans recall the all-time great rotation that led the last of those division winners, but the 2007-2010 teams were flat-out mashers.
Even less consistent than pitching is defense. I've been calculating adjusted defensive efficiency, which measures teams' ability to convert batted balls into outs and erase existing baserunners for five years, and no team has ever topped the rankings two years running. The Cubs were great in many ways last year, and obviously have a bright future, but their defense was not only the best in the game, it was standard deviations better than anyone else's. They broke through upper bands of excellence that I didn't think possible.
If they don't have the best defense in baseball this year, it'll likely cost them six wins -- and that's if they finish second! Toss in the loss of Dexter Fowler, a decline in Jake Arrieta last season, along with the fact there's no reason for Joe Maddon to have his foot to the floor all season, and you've got a value-based under call on a team that is priced for perfection.
 

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Best NL "Under" bet

Chicago Cubs: Under 96.5 wins

Since the end of the Braves' pitching-led dominance in the 1990s, great offenses have tended to be more consistently great year-to-year than pitching staffs. While the best examples of this are the Red Sox and Yankees during the first 10 years of this millennium, the Phillies' five-year run of NL East titles falls into that category as well. Baseball fans recall the all-time great rotation that led the last of those division winners, but the 2007-2010 teams were flat-out mashers.
Even less consistent than pitching is defense. I've been calculating adjusted defensive efficiency, which measures teams' ability to convert batted balls into outs and erase existing baserunners for five years, and no team has ever topped the rankings two years running. The Cubs were great in many ways last year, and obviously have a bright future, but their defense was not only the best in the game, it was standard deviations better than anyone else's. They broke through upper bands of excellence that I didn't think possible.
If they don't have the best defense in baseball this year, it'll likely cost them six wins -- and that's if they finish second! Toss in the loss of Dexter Fowler, a decline in Jake Arrieta last season, along with the fact there's no reason for Joe Maddon to have his foot to the floor all season, and you've got a value-based under call on a team that is priced for perfection.

Yeah yeah yeah.

This seems to be a popular opinion on the board, but when I posted an opportunity to bet it juice free I got crickets.

Kinda like the "fresh take" last year that they wouldn't win the world series. Oops.
 

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