Settling last-minute questions for North Carolina and Gonzaga
ESPN INSIDER
4/3/17
The men's college basketball season comes down to one final game on Monday, with either Gonzaga or North Carolina walking away with a national title. So what are the biggest questions? Our writers covering the game have the answers.
1. What is the one thing that should worry Roy Williams? What should have Mark Few concerned?
Eamonn Brennan: Nigel Williams-Goss should worry Roy Williams. The All-American guard had struggled from the field for most of the tournament; his best game before the Final Four, against Xavier, included a 3-of-12 night from inside the arc. Yet Williams-Goss took over against South Carolina on Saturday, dicing his way through a very good defense that ostensibly should have matched up well -- an especially scary prospect for a coach whose point guard is basically playing on two sprained ankles (and looked like it Saturday).
On the other end, Mark Few will likely be stressed about live-ball turnovers and long rebounds: North Carolina is deadly on the break, and while the Zags' defense is the best in the country, it is vastly more effective when it is back and set (it has allowed 0.709 points per trip in the half court during the tourney, per Synergy scouting data) than in transition (where it has given up 1.0).
Jeff Goodman: Rebounding. Williams maintains it's the most important facet of the game, and also one aspect the Tar Heels do exceptionally well. However, Gonzaga has a pair of quality big men in Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. Williams will need Isaiah Hicks to play better than he did the other night.
Same deal for Few. The glass and the paint are important for both teams -- because it's a priority for the Zags to go inside to Karnowski, who can score in the post and also pass and get teammates uncontested shots.
Myron Medcalf: Williams should worry about his team's close calls and blown leads throughout the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels nearly lost to Arkansas in the second round. They needed a Luke Maye buzzer-beater to advance past Kentucky in the Elite Eight and two critical offensive rebounds to stop Oregon on Saturday. They've been playing with fire all season. Few should worry about the early foul trouble his big men could encounter as they attempt to stop North Carolina's tough frontcourt. He has the depth to challenge the Tar Heels inside, but they have to stay on the floor to help. That's not easy against UNC.
Dana O'Neil: For Williams, he needs to make sure the Tar Heels take smart shots and avoid foolish mistakes. They nearly blew their national semifinal game against Oregon, going cold for five minutes and choking the game away. Gonzaga is too good defensively to allow for foolish miscues and bad decisions. For Few, it's a "who" not a "what." Justin Jackson is a matchup disaster for anyone, big enough to score in the post, versatile enough to stretch a big out to the wing to cover him. Gonzaga has to find a way to contain the player who is easily North Carolina's most dangerous weapon.
2. What is the most important individual matchup, the one that will decide this game?
Brennan: Both teams have an array of bigs who mix and match in different looks off the bench, and it's probably too simplistic to just boil it down to the two biggest, but it does feel like the Kennedy Meeks-Przemek Karnowski matchup, for better or worse, could tilt the balance of things throughout -- particularly when UNC has the ball. Saturday night's win over Oregon was probably Meeks' best performance of an already excellent senior season, one that salvaged the Heels' otherwise sputtering offense. His buckets almost all came around the rim, where his sheer girth helped dislodge Ducks shot-blocker Jordan Bell. That seems unlikely to happen against Gonzaga's 7-foot-1, 300-pound center. Meeks hasn't played against a dude like this. Then again, neither has Karnowski.
Goodman: Williams-Goss versus Joel Berry II. I'm not sure they will wind up guarding each other all that much, but it's an individual matchup in that they are the two point guards on the floor. With so much attention given to the frontcourts, it's still a guards' game.
Medcalf: Meeks has snatched 23 offensive rebounds in five NCAA tournament games. Overall, he has grabbed 16.4 percent of the available offensive rebounds when he has been on the court this season, per KenPom.com. He's a 6-foot-10, 260-pound force who has carried UNC with his ability to generate second-chance opportunities. But Karnowski is 7-foot-1 and 300 pounds. If he can obstruct Meeks' path to the offensive glass and reduce UNC's second-chance points, Gonzaga's chance to upset a North Carolina team that hasn't excelled on the offensive end in its past two games increases. If Karnowski draws early fouls or can't find a way to help his team stall Meeks, then the Bulldogs will find themselves in a difficult predicament.
O'Neil: The obvious choice is Karnowski against Meeks, but that behemoth-on-behemoth matchup might negate itself. I think the more critical spot is Williams-Goss versus Berry. Williams-Goss was terrific against South Carolina, scoring 23 points and more, fearlessly taking -- and making --- contested shots. Meantime Berry remains clearly hobbled by his bum ankles. He shot just 2 of 14 against Oregon, and if he struggles, so too will the Heels.
3. North Carolina has owned the glass. How does Gonzaga combat that? Can it?
Brennan: It's going to be very, very difficult. North Carolina rebounded more of its misses than any team in the country this year, which it combined with its low turnover rate to produce the highest volume of shots in college basketball. Carolina doesn't always have to shoot well (the first half against Oregon, sheesh) precisely because it shoots so often. Gonzaga's approach to West Virginia -- the nation's top turnover defense -- might offer some hints here. The Zags were realistic about it; they admitted they would probably cough up the ball a few times. So they set manageable goals (attack the pressure, get easy looks, and if you are going to turn the ball over, don't do it in active play) and guarded like crazy, and it was enough. Carolina's offensive rebounding is like West Virginia's pressure. You don't eliminate it; you manage it.
ESPN INSIDER
4/3/17
The men's college basketball season comes down to one final game on Monday, with either Gonzaga or North Carolina walking away with a national title. So what are the biggest questions? Our writers covering the game have the answers.
1. What is the one thing that should worry Roy Williams? What should have Mark Few concerned?
Eamonn Brennan: Nigel Williams-Goss should worry Roy Williams. The All-American guard had struggled from the field for most of the tournament; his best game before the Final Four, against Xavier, included a 3-of-12 night from inside the arc. Yet Williams-Goss took over against South Carolina on Saturday, dicing his way through a very good defense that ostensibly should have matched up well -- an especially scary prospect for a coach whose point guard is basically playing on two sprained ankles (and looked like it Saturday).
On the other end, Mark Few will likely be stressed about live-ball turnovers and long rebounds: North Carolina is deadly on the break, and while the Zags' defense is the best in the country, it is vastly more effective when it is back and set (it has allowed 0.709 points per trip in the half court during the tourney, per Synergy scouting data) than in transition (where it has given up 1.0).
Jeff Goodman: Rebounding. Williams maintains it's the most important facet of the game, and also one aspect the Tar Heels do exceptionally well. However, Gonzaga has a pair of quality big men in Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. Williams will need Isaiah Hicks to play better than he did the other night.
Same deal for Few. The glass and the paint are important for both teams -- because it's a priority for the Zags to go inside to Karnowski, who can score in the post and also pass and get teammates uncontested shots.
Myron Medcalf: Williams should worry about his team's close calls and blown leads throughout the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels nearly lost to Arkansas in the second round. They needed a Luke Maye buzzer-beater to advance past Kentucky in the Elite Eight and two critical offensive rebounds to stop Oregon on Saturday. They've been playing with fire all season. Few should worry about the early foul trouble his big men could encounter as they attempt to stop North Carolina's tough frontcourt. He has the depth to challenge the Tar Heels inside, but they have to stay on the floor to help. That's not easy against UNC.
Dana O'Neil: For Williams, he needs to make sure the Tar Heels take smart shots and avoid foolish mistakes. They nearly blew their national semifinal game against Oregon, going cold for five minutes and choking the game away. Gonzaga is too good defensively to allow for foolish miscues and bad decisions. For Few, it's a "who" not a "what." Justin Jackson is a matchup disaster for anyone, big enough to score in the post, versatile enough to stretch a big out to the wing to cover him. Gonzaga has to find a way to contain the player who is easily North Carolina's most dangerous weapon.
2. What is the most important individual matchup, the one that will decide this game?
Brennan: Both teams have an array of bigs who mix and match in different looks off the bench, and it's probably too simplistic to just boil it down to the two biggest, but it does feel like the Kennedy Meeks-Przemek Karnowski matchup, for better or worse, could tilt the balance of things throughout -- particularly when UNC has the ball. Saturday night's win over Oregon was probably Meeks' best performance of an already excellent senior season, one that salvaged the Heels' otherwise sputtering offense. His buckets almost all came around the rim, where his sheer girth helped dislodge Ducks shot-blocker Jordan Bell. That seems unlikely to happen against Gonzaga's 7-foot-1, 300-pound center. Meeks hasn't played against a dude like this. Then again, neither has Karnowski.
Goodman: Williams-Goss versus Joel Berry II. I'm not sure they will wind up guarding each other all that much, but it's an individual matchup in that they are the two point guards on the floor. With so much attention given to the frontcourts, it's still a guards' game.
Medcalf: Meeks has snatched 23 offensive rebounds in five NCAA tournament games. Overall, he has grabbed 16.4 percent of the available offensive rebounds when he has been on the court this season, per KenPom.com. He's a 6-foot-10, 260-pound force who has carried UNC with his ability to generate second-chance opportunities. But Karnowski is 7-foot-1 and 300 pounds. If he can obstruct Meeks' path to the offensive glass and reduce UNC's second-chance points, Gonzaga's chance to upset a North Carolina team that hasn't excelled on the offensive end in its past two games increases. If Karnowski draws early fouls or can't find a way to help his team stall Meeks, then the Bulldogs will find themselves in a difficult predicament.
O'Neil: The obvious choice is Karnowski against Meeks, but that behemoth-on-behemoth matchup might negate itself. I think the more critical spot is Williams-Goss versus Berry. Williams-Goss was terrific against South Carolina, scoring 23 points and more, fearlessly taking -- and making --- contested shots. Meantime Berry remains clearly hobbled by his bum ankles. He shot just 2 of 14 against Oregon, and if he struggles, so too will the Heels.
3. North Carolina has owned the glass. How does Gonzaga combat that? Can it?
Brennan: It's going to be very, very difficult. North Carolina rebounded more of its misses than any team in the country this year, which it combined with its low turnover rate to produce the highest volume of shots in college basketball. Carolina doesn't always have to shoot well (the first half against Oregon, sheesh) precisely because it shoots so often. Gonzaga's approach to West Virginia -- the nation's top turnover defense -- might offer some hints here. The Zags were realistic about it; they admitted they would probably cough up the ball a few times. So they set manageable goals (attack the pressure, get easy looks, and if you are going to turn the ball over, don't do it in active play) and guarded like crazy, and it was enough. Carolina's offensive rebounding is like West Virginia's pressure. You don't eliminate it; you manage it.
