Forum: Baseball Forum - Post your picks or discuss anything related to betting MLB here. Sponsored by BetDSI - get your 300% bonus here, Only for RX Posters

Thread: MLB 2017: Let's Bet On Some Baseball Games With Kevy

Page 1 of 20 12345678910 ... LastLast
  1. #1 MLB 2017: Let's Bet On Some Baseball Games With Kevy 
    Classic Man Kevy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Portland,OR
    Posts
    7,345
    Will try to post some Baseball plays here this season.
    I might not be posting here every day. But I will try
    my very best to be involved here as much as possible.

    I will be using Heritage and Bookmaker/DSI lines.

    All my wagers are flat bets for 2* (two units) unless
    otherwise stated.

    Good Luck and Good Health 2017 Baseball Wagers.
    Beloved Offshore Icon
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX Senior brewerfan003's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    A Wisconsin Tavern
    Posts
    3,902
    Gl this year Kevy. Have a great season!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    RX Member Eccocide's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    540
    Nice to see you around Kevy. Looking forward to this season!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    Go Cubs Go jcubs55's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    3,007
    Kevy,

    It's always great to see you and I hope all has been well for you. Best of luck this entire year.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    RX Wizard PatsFanatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    new england
    Posts
    7,088
    Good Luck!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    ? SHADE OR FADE ?
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    2,589
    Looking forward to your plays Kevy hang with us for life ok
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    RX Local indiana's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    valley center
    Posts
    22,746
    Kevy........Your thread is a must read buddy...........good luck with your season.............indy
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    Your Bookies Worest Enemy XSPower's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    42,851
    Good to see you around my friend.... good luck this season
    2017 NCAA FB (32-20) . NFLX RECORD (25-14) +$28,710
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    33,068
    Good luck this season, Kevy!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #10  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    New Orleans
    Posts
    536
    Good luck Kevy, glad to see that you are back!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #11  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    California
    Posts
    14,836
    Here's to a great season !
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #12  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Location
    andover
    Posts
    872
    Bol this season!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #13  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    house
    Posts
    505
    Ok let's bet!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #14  
    Even DONKS win sometimes... Right? Donkwin47's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    IOWA CITY / Chicago Suburbs
    Posts
    7,525
    All the best to you this season, Kevy!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #15  
    Classic Man Kevy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Portland,OR
    Posts
    7,345
    Gentleman thanks for the great words. The respect is mutual.
    Beloved Offshore Icon
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #16  
    Classic Man Kevy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Portland,OR
    Posts
    7,345
    I will be playing some -1 lines and +1 lines from time to time this. If your Book does not offer these OR if you want a little better
    price than what your Book is offering you, here is an article I cut and paste below that I found that explains how to do this yourself.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Before they decided to take their ball and go home, Pinnacle used to offer a -1.0 run line in baseball. But when the offshore book closed itself off to the American market, most bettors thought that they not only lost one of the most reliable and player-friendly books but that they also waved goodbye to this advantageous and lucrative run line. Not true. The catch is that if you want it you have to do a little work for it.

    OK, so here is the general theory: You take the $100.00 that you would have either bet on the money line or the traditional -1.5 run line. You're going to split that up into a money line bet and a traditional run line wager. You use the formula below to figure out how much you need to bet on the money line. You then bet the rest on the run line. Now, if your team wins by two runs you cash both bets and the next round is on you. If your team loses then you lost your bet and would have lost it one way or another. And, finally, if your team only wins by one run then you have earned yourself a ‘push’ on a game in which your regular money line bet would have lost.
    (I know the info and formula that follows seems confusing at first. But I promise you, if you take some actual numbers from actual games and practice you can get the hang of it in about 20 or 30 minutes. Or you can just pay me to do it since I know what I’m doing! Ha!)
    Here is the specific formula that you have to create yourself a -1.0 run line and give yourself a true statistical advantage:
    100/MONEYLINE = X
    X + 1.0 = Y
    100/Y = money line wager

    OK, that formula (it's a lot easier than it looks, just take a pen and paper and practice a bit) calculates how much you're going to put on the money line. The next step is to figure out how much profit that money line bet will yield. Your online book normally calculates that if you put the amount you want to risk in. If not, simply use this formula:
    100/MONEYLINE = Z
    Money line wager x Z = A
    A = run line wager

    OK, so you've got your money line wager and now you've calculated your run line wager. For simplicities sake, you're run line wager is going to be exactly the same as the amount you would win off your money line bet.
    If I haven't completely confused you, here is an example of the theory in practice:
    Let's say we wanted to work a -1.0 run line on the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners and the Angels are -130 favorites with a -1.5 run line at +160. Here's what we'd be looking at:
    100/130 = 0.769 (we use 130 because that's the money line)
    0.769 + 1.0 = 1.769
    100/1.769 = 56.53

    That means 56.53 is our money line wager on the Angels at -130. That bet would yield a profit of 43.25. We then would place a bet of 43.25 on the Angels (-1.5) at +160. That bet would yield a profit of 69.20. Your overall card would look like this:
    Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
    Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
    Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.

    So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even. If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130. You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.
    Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet? Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that. But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run. Gambling is all about risk management and, in my professional opinion and experience, using a -1.0 run line is an exceptional way to maximize profit while limiting exposure.
    Somewhere between 20 percent and 30 percent of all MLB games are decided by one run. By creating a -1.0 run line for yourself you may be reducing your odds on individual plays but overall you're limiting your exposure while also improving your long-term odds at a profit.
    Beloved Offshore Icon
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #17  
    Go Cubs Go jcubs55's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    3,007
    Kevy,

    If I may share... here is a quick link to a -1 RL calculator that does the legwork for you:

    http://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #18  
    Classic Man Kevy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Portland,OR
    Posts
    7,345
    Quote Originally Posted by jcubs55 View Post
    Kevy,

    If I may share... here is a quick link to a -1 RL calculator that does the legwork for you:

    http://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/

    John this excellent. I always do this by pen and paper. But this is will be much easier and much faster I think
    for a lot of our posters. If they are playing at Heritage, 5Dimes, BetOnline, or Loose Lines they can create some
    very good -1 and +1 lines.
    Beloved Offshore Icon
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #19  
    RX Senior MG Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Minneapolis, MN
    Posts
    4,852
    No plays have been posted, correct?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #20  
    RX Senior brewerfan003's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    A Wisconsin Tavern
    Posts
    3,902
    Quote Originally Posted by MG Man View Post
    No plays have been posted, correct?

    Correct. Kevy will be selective in April. May is when he usually is on something daily.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #21  
    RX Local Scott L's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    pa
    Posts
    24,174
    Kevy weren't we in the middle of a conversation a few months ago? Something that started in the Pennywise RR thread. Yeah I forgot too. Anyway good to see you.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #22  
    Veteran Baseball Handicapper gabewins's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    CA
    Posts
    441
    Quote Originally Posted by brewerfan003 View Post
    Correct. Kevy will be selective in April. May is when he usually is on something daily.

    smart man
    Reply With Quote  
     

  23. #23  
    Classic Man Kevy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Portland,OR
    Posts
    7,345
    Quote Originally Posted by Scott L View Post
    Kevy weren't we in the middle of a conversation a few months ago? Something that started in the Pennywise RR thread. Yeah I forgot too. Anyway good to see you.
    Scott, Yes Sir we were. I will PM you Friday or Monday at the latest and catch up
    with you . Hope all is going well and we will talk soon.
    Beloved Offshore Icon
    Reply With Quote  
     

  24. #24  
    Classic Man Kevy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Location
    Portland,OR
    Posts
    7,345
    Tuesday 4-11-17


    2* Philadelphia Phillies +1 +102


    GL Tuesday Bases
    Beloved Offshore Icon
    Reply With Quote  
     

  25. #25  
    RX Wizard Russell Peters's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    The Regal Beagle
    Posts
    6,923
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevy View Post
    Tuesday 4-11-17


    2* Philadelphia Phillies +1 +102


    GL Tuesday Bases
    Good luck today and rest of the year!
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •