[h=1]How to bet UFC 210[/h]Reed Kuhn
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
4/6/17
The UFC light heavyweight division was an afterthought in 2016, suffering from the erratic professionalism of one of its biggest former stars, Jon Jones, and perhaps a few visits from the injury bug. The current champion, Daniel Cormier, who only won the title when it was vacated, did not even defend the belt once in 2016. In fact, the only official title fight that occurred for the division was between Jones and Ovince Saint Preux in Cormier's injury-induced absence. And the interim title Jones won would later be stripped.
Title fights in this division are as hard to come by as legitimate challengers, several of whom have recently left the UFC altogether. So when Anthony "Rumble" Johnson enters the cage at UFC 210 for a second title shot against Cormier, he'll do so against a swirling backdrop. Johnson is currently an ever-so-slight favorite as a challenger, and if he wins, a third grudge match wouldn't be out of the question.
But what about Jones, the former champion who never lost a title fight and the obvious next contender? The legitimacy of the top three light heavyweights belies the lack of viable challengers further down the ranks. Our only hope is that this Saturday's fight can go off without any last-minute changes, and that the winner can come back quickly to clear up the three-way mess. And who wins? With such even odds, any lean would be worth a stab at the sports books. So let's take a closer look, and at a few other key matchups as well.
[h=2]Welterweight matchup: Patrick Cote (-160) vs Thiago Alves (+140)[/h]
Both fighters have competed in other divisions, but in opposite directions. Hence we see a rangy-framed Cote taking on a compact, dense Alves. Both are veterans who have competed for UFC titles, each logging close to four hours of Octagon time. And while neither may be in the current title picture, a win over another respected veteran could put them back into the rankings, where they can continue to draw high-profile fights.
Cote has been more eager to go to ground than Alves, who has relied on his diverse power striking for his most spectacular wins. Alves' power striking has always been a threat, but only when he can get close. That's a real threat here given Cote's slightly open defense and history of knockdowns. But Cote can also be a grinder, which would be a more favorable strategy against Alves. Also, don't be surprised when these guys trade leg kicks.
Insider recommends: The play here is to lay a little juice on Cote. At minus-160, he could be played straight, or even paired with one of our more expensive safe plays to get even money. He'll be at risk due to defensive vulnerabilities and the power of Alves, but the longer the fight goes the more it should favor Cote. A big play would warrant a small hedge on Alves by TKO at plus-350.
[h=2]Middleweight matchup: No. 5 Gegard Mousasi (-125) vs No. 4 Chris Weidman (+105)[/h]
Speaking of log-jammed title pictures, the middleweight division's elite are all on a confusing waiting list while current champion Michael Bisping decides if he'll risk facing a true contender. Yoel Romero and Ronaldo Souza are undoubtedly at the top of that list, but pairing Weidman with Mousasi offers the winner a position on deck for a title shot down the road. There might even be a four-man playoff.
Mousasi has the striking pedigree, and his numbers show a crisp jab, and excellent defense. But he has occasionally been pinned on the mat, which is something Weidman is fully capable of doing. And let's not overlook the fact that Weidman has also held his own against some of the most notorious strikers in the game -- Anderson Silva, Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida.
Insider recommends: Weidman has options here. He's bigger, more powerful and arguably more durable than Mousasi. Weidman also has his wrestling to fall back on if he's in trouble, or to seal a round on the cards. Mousasi was the trendy pick early, but there has been tons of volatility in the line. The value here is on Weidman as a slight underdog, with the potential that you might get solid plus money if you time the market spikes well.
[h=2]Light heavyweight championship: Champion Daniel Cormier (+100) vs No. 1 Anthony Johnson (-120)[/h]
Classic simplicity sometimes makes the most compelling sporting contests. That was true when Cormier, a highly decorated wrestler, fought Johnson, the most dangerous striker in MMA today. And it's still true now as the two are set for a title fight rematch. Despite Cormier's initial victory, he's an underdog champion during fight week.
Johnson's stat line is solid, but we've continuously seen him get into trouble on the mat, despite a wrestling base. And Cormier brings arguably the most stifling wrestling in the division. Weathering the early storm is a requirement for any opponent of Johnson, one that is too steep a task for many. But Cormier survived his own early scare, and did exactly what he should to put Johnson into a bad spot. One way or the other, this is not going to the cards. If Cormier cannot execute his game plan, the 38-year old will not be able to absorb leather for long.
Insider recommends: Lines flipped since opening, making the original favorite Cormier now a slight underdog. We'll take that value and recommend Cormier to retain his title. We'd also use the "fight does not go the distance" prop as a small multiplier for other plays on the card, as Johnson will not be able to defend his back forever should he not score the early knockout.
[h=2]Closing lines[/h]Elsewhere on the card, Kamaru Usman and Myles Jury both make safe favorites. A parlay of Usman, Jury and Cormier-Johnson ITD can return nearly even money.
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Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
4/6/17
The UFC light heavyweight division was an afterthought in 2016, suffering from the erratic professionalism of one of its biggest former stars, Jon Jones, and perhaps a few visits from the injury bug. The current champion, Daniel Cormier, who only won the title when it was vacated, did not even defend the belt once in 2016. In fact, the only official title fight that occurred for the division was between Jones and Ovince Saint Preux in Cormier's injury-induced absence. And the interim title Jones won would later be stripped.
Title fights in this division are as hard to come by as legitimate challengers, several of whom have recently left the UFC altogether. So when Anthony "Rumble" Johnson enters the cage at UFC 210 for a second title shot against Cormier, he'll do so against a swirling backdrop. Johnson is currently an ever-so-slight favorite as a challenger, and if he wins, a third grudge match wouldn't be out of the question.
But what about Jones, the former champion who never lost a title fight and the obvious next contender? The legitimacy of the top three light heavyweights belies the lack of viable challengers further down the ranks. Our only hope is that this Saturday's fight can go off without any last-minute changes, and that the winner can come back quickly to clear up the three-way mess. And who wins? With such even odds, any lean would be worth a stab at the sports books. So let's take a closer look, and at a few other key matchups as well.
[h=2]Welterweight matchup: Patrick Cote (-160) vs Thiago Alves (+140)[/h]
Both fighters have competed in other divisions, but in opposite directions. Hence we see a rangy-framed Cote taking on a compact, dense Alves. Both are veterans who have competed for UFC titles, each logging close to four hours of Octagon time. And while neither may be in the current title picture, a win over another respected veteran could put them back into the rankings, where they can continue to draw high-profile fights.
Cote has been more eager to go to ground than Alves, who has relied on his diverse power striking for his most spectacular wins. Alves' power striking has always been a threat, but only when he can get close. That's a real threat here given Cote's slightly open defense and history of knockdowns. But Cote can also be a grinder, which would be a more favorable strategy against Alves. Also, don't be surprised when these guys trade leg kicks.
Insider recommends: The play here is to lay a little juice on Cote. At minus-160, he could be played straight, or even paired with one of our more expensive safe plays to get even money. He'll be at risk due to defensive vulnerabilities and the power of Alves, but the longer the fight goes the more it should favor Cote. A big play would warrant a small hedge on Alves by TKO at plus-350.
[h=2]Middleweight matchup: No. 5 Gegard Mousasi (-125) vs No. 4 Chris Weidman (+105)[/h]
Speaking of log-jammed title pictures, the middleweight division's elite are all on a confusing waiting list while current champion Michael Bisping decides if he'll risk facing a true contender. Yoel Romero and Ronaldo Souza are undoubtedly at the top of that list, but pairing Weidman with Mousasi offers the winner a position on deck for a title shot down the road. There might even be a four-man playoff.
Mousasi has the striking pedigree, and his numbers show a crisp jab, and excellent defense. But he has occasionally been pinned on the mat, which is something Weidman is fully capable of doing. And let's not overlook the fact that Weidman has also held his own against some of the most notorious strikers in the game -- Anderson Silva, Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida.
Insider recommends: Weidman has options here. He's bigger, more powerful and arguably more durable than Mousasi. Weidman also has his wrestling to fall back on if he's in trouble, or to seal a round on the cards. Mousasi was the trendy pick early, but there has been tons of volatility in the line. The value here is on Weidman as a slight underdog, with the potential that you might get solid plus money if you time the market spikes well.
[h=2]Light heavyweight championship: Champion Daniel Cormier (+100) vs No. 1 Anthony Johnson (-120)[/h]
Classic simplicity sometimes makes the most compelling sporting contests. That was true when Cormier, a highly decorated wrestler, fought Johnson, the most dangerous striker in MMA today. And it's still true now as the two are set for a title fight rematch. Despite Cormier's initial victory, he's an underdog champion during fight week.
Johnson's stat line is solid, but we've continuously seen him get into trouble on the mat, despite a wrestling base. And Cormier brings arguably the most stifling wrestling in the division. Weathering the early storm is a requirement for any opponent of Johnson, one that is too steep a task for many. But Cormier survived his own early scare, and did exactly what he should to put Johnson into a bad spot. One way or the other, this is not going to the cards. If Cormier cannot execute his game plan, the 38-year old will not be able to absorb leather for long.
Insider recommends: Lines flipped since opening, making the original favorite Cormier now a slight underdog. We'll take that value and recommend Cormier to retain his title. We'd also use the "fight does not go the distance" prop as a small multiplier for other plays on the card, as Johnson will not be able to defend his back forever should he not score the early knockout.
[h=2]Closing lines[/h]Elsewhere on the card, Kamaru Usman and Myles Jury both make safe favorites. A parlay of Usman, Jury and Cormier-Johnson ITD can return nearly even money.
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