[h=1]Best early Heisman value bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
4/6/17
The returning favorites for the Heisman Trophy haven't fared well in recent years, as they always have a lot of competition and last season's expectations to live up to. Your best bet is to find a player a little farther down the list who offers some value.
A recap of recent winners:
2016: Lamar Jackson wasn't one of the top 20 favorites to win the Heisman.
2015: Derrick Henry wasn't one of the top eight favorites to win the Heisman.
2014: Marcus Mariota was my pick to win the Heisman and had the third-best odds to win it.
2013: Jameis Winston hadn't even played a game and wasn't on the initial odds list.
2012: Johnny Manziel wasn't even the starter out of spring and not on the odds list.
2011: Robert Griffin III wasn't among the top 20 Heisman favorites.
2010: Cam Newton hadn't started a game at Auburn and wasn't on the odds list.
In the last seven years, only one player who won the Heisman was among the top eight favorites, and three times a player that hadn't even taken a snap yet for his team won it. That doesn't mean form will hold this year, but it's worth taking note of past history.
Here are the players whom I think have the most value in terms of their odds to win the 2017 Heisman Trophy.
Odds courtesy of William Hill US.
Last year Francois got hit a lot, but stayed in games, showing he's durable. Florida State will have some big marquee games (Alabama, Clemson, Louisville) for him to showcase his skills. Dalvin Cook got all the media attention on the Florida State offense in 2016, and that focus will be Francois' this year. If the Seminoles come away from their tough scheduled unscathed, Francois will have much to do with it and will put himself at the top of the Heisman list. He's my best value bet right now.
Darnold deserves the favorite role, as USC was a different team once he was handed the starting job in Week 4. He is a dangerous runner, an accurate passer and is surrounded by talent at the skill positions. Darnold threw for a career high 453 yards in leading the Trojans to a come-from-behind win in the Rose Bowl over a solid Penn State squad and has a ton of momentum going into this season. I think his odds should be closer to 5-1.
Ohio State is enhancing its offense with the hiring of former Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson, and this should help Barrett become more consistent. The Buckeyes have a huge nonconference game against Oklahoma, and provided they win, Barrett will likely be in the driver's seat early on. Ohio State will be favored in every game and if Barrett reverts back to his 2014 form, he has an excellent shot at winning the Heisman.
Browning has a great shot at improving on last year's statistics and might be worth a look. While he faltered a bit down the stretch in the big games, with another year of experience under his belt I don't think there will be a drop-off this season. Washington remains a contender in the Pac-12 as they avoid USC and will be favored in every game except at Stanford, thus making Browning a contender.
Oklahoma State is a prime contender in the Big 12 and the best news for Rudolph is that he's going to have arguably the best wide receiver in the nation to throw to in James Washington. After throwing for over 4,000 yards last year with a solid 28-4 TD:INT ratio, Rudolph could surpass those numbers in 2017.
Some have made the argument that Guice is better than Leonard Fournette. Guice will have the backfield to himself this season and will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities. If LSU is in playoff consideration toward the end of the season, Guice will be a major reason why.
