I think this might be my favorite lomgshot bet of all time. (+3200)

CHOPTALK · Apr 12, 2017

I want to emphasize long shot.
Nick Kyrgios +3200 next month to win the French Open.

Wow that's awesome value .

I have him somewhere around 20 to 25% to win the whole thing.

Hes coming into his own.
Finally growing up .
I think Nadal of course is the fav but I put Nick at #2 right now and you getting +3200.

I already have some money on this . When all is said and done I think I'm gonna take a huge shot here . At least $500.

+3200 is incredible for arguably the most talented tennis player in the world(not best), who's hot , and growing up, on a surface that favors him .

rolltide · Apr 12, 2017

for outsider i would go Thiem 25/1

CHOPTALK · Apr 12, 2017

rolltide said:
for outsider i would go Thiem 25/1

Whats your opinion of Nick ?
Am I crazy to say he is the most talented player in the world tool wise?

rolltide · Apr 12, 2017

best server in the world....winning close to 95% of his service games but not a great clay courter. big serve and baseline player should translate great in london or NYC but probably not Paris

CHOPTALK · Apr 12, 2017

rolltide said:
best server in the world....winning close to 95% of his service games but not a great clay courter. big serve and baseline player should translate great in london or NYC but probably not Paris

I read that he grew up playing on clay and was quoted as saying it's his favorite surface .

Do you find value in 32/1?

rolltide · Apr 12, 2017

i wouldn't expect him to beat murray, nadal, or djoko on clay this year but if the draw hits him right and he can avoid one of them in the semis then i think he can be in the finals for sure. i certainly wouldn't give him 20-25% chance of winning but certainly 8-10% which puts him around 10-1 or 12/1 so, yes,
32/1 good value

i will give him 25% for wimbledon and you can find him 17/1 or even 20/1 there. much better bet IMHO

CHOPTALK · Apr 12, 2017

rolltide said:
i wouldn't expect him to beat murray, nadal, or djoko on clay this year but if the draw hits him right and he can avoid one of them in the semis then i think he can be in the finals for sure. i certainly wouldn't give him 20-25% chance of winning but certainly 8-10% which puts him around 10-1 or 12/1 so, yes,
32/1 good value

i will give him 25% for wimbledon and you can find him 17/1 or even 20/1 there. much better bet IMHO

Yea i will most certainly get in on some of that to .
He is on the verge of a grand slam and this is the last chance or 2nd or 3rd to last chance to get in on it at these kind nds of odds .

This is the future #1 ranked player in the world getting 32 to 1

SmallDaddy · Apr 12, 2017

wimbledon is his best shot, not on clay

CarolinaKid · Apr 12, 2017

what was the odds when iron mike got beat by buster douglas

TomGshotput · Apr 12, 2017

Kelly Criterion says you should have 17.5% of your bankroll on the line based on the odds you're getting and the actual 20% probability the bet wins. There is 40-1 out there. Would be nice to see a $1 million ticket cash on this

PatsFan1283 · Apr 12, 2017

ckid said:
what was the odds when iron mike got beat by buster douglas

42-1

TomGshotput · Apr 13, 2017

For my favorite long-shot bet, just took Carolina over Kansas City in the Super Bowl for 640-1. Wish I could have added the under and made it 1200-1.

Mobdeeper7239 · Apr 13, 2017

Kid says he loves basketball more. He's not winning shit. Agree his best shot would be on grass.

CarolinaKid · Apr 13, 2017

carolina will never win a super bowl with cam fig newton

festeringZit · Apr 13, 2017

Imho, when you gave a head case like Nick, it's unlikely for him to break through on clay. Too many long points, and they clay somewhat nullifies his service advantage.

CarolinaKid · Apr 13, 2017

tennis is the worst sport for long shots as you have to play too many matches to get from starting pt to the end

CHOPTALK · May 27, 2017

It's time

pocketrockets · May 27, 2017

Kyorgos or Nadal for me

Ricboff · May 27, 2017

Nick to win?

he never has won a tournament on clay, let alone win Roland Garros. One thing I can say with significant confidence- someone will have to beat Nadal for him. Rafa is in form and on this surface, no way Jose, Nadal will wear him down from the back. Forget it.

I agree with others, Wimbledon is his best shot at a major. With that said, he does have a dream draw. In his quarter there is no murray, nole or Nadal. In fact he can't face both Nadal and Nole in this tournament. He'd meet either in the final. If he were to get that far, imo, that would be incredible. The top half of the draw is way way weaker than the bottom half..............Thiem and Zverev may be dangerous. Thiem is the ONLY player to beat Nadal on clay ytd. However, he is in Nole's quartet, and even in poor form Nole seems to own this kid. Zverev has won TWICE on clay ytd including mauling Nole in the final at Rome ( a TMS event) recently. The kid is the real deal. How so?

top quartet, to win;
Murray= +200
Nish= +500
Zverev= +300

that speaks volumes

Dimitrov is in Rafa's quartet- that would be an interesting match-up

what has happened to Nole and Murray? these two have fallen off the map, wtf?

neverbend · May 29, 2017

CHOPTALK said:
I want to emphasize long shot.
Nick Kyrgios +3200 next month to win the French Open.

Wow that's awesome value .

I have him somewhere around 20 to 25% to win the whole thing.

Hes coming into his own.
Finally growing up .
I think Nadal of course is the fav but I put Nick at #2 right now and you getting +3200.

I already have some money on this . When all is said and done I think I'm gonna take a huge shot here . At least $500.

+3200 is incredible for arguably the most talented tennis player in the world(not best), who's hot , and growing up, on a surface that favors him .

Get better odds 5D has him at +7500

I think this might be my favorite lomgshot bet of all time. (+3200)

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