2017 NBA playoff betting guide
Dave Tuley Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
4/15/17
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA playoffs start this weekend, and things look a lot different than they did a short time ago.
After the Cleveland Cavaliers knocked off the Golden State Warriors in last June's NBA finals and the Warriors added Kevin Durant in the offseason, a lot of people assumed they'd meet again in this year's Finals, and they've been prohibitive favorites to win their respective conferences all season. But the Warriors haven't been the unbeatable force that most people were expecting, while the Cavaliers have looked especially vulnerable down the stretch and even lost the East's No. 1 seed to the Boston Celtics.
However, this is still the NBA and all series are best-of-seven, so it's hard for an underdog to pull a series upset, which is why most of our approach in this betting guide will be in looking for spot plays in individual games. We certainly make it clear who we like to advance if you want to use that as an endorsement of a series bet.
As for futures bets, most of the value has been sucked out of them. However, both Rynning and I have previously tabbed the Toronto Raptors as the best value on the board, as I picked them last summer as my value bet to win the NBA title, while Rynning gave them a shot to win the Eastern Conference back at the All-Star break.
Here is our breakdown of the eight first-round series.
Note from yours truly, Dave Tuley: In comparing the Game 1 point spreads to my personal power ratings that I contributed to ESPN Chalk's Vegas Power Ratings, I give a slight edge to all the underdogs in Game 1, but the four series I'm breaking down represent the four underdogs that I believe are the most live.
All odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning, April 14, but we certainly advise to shop around for the best numbers on the bets you're looking to make.
All times are Eastern.
No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers
Series price: Cleveland -1200/Indiana +750
Game 1: Saturday, 3 p.m. in Cleveland (ABC)
Game 1 opener: Cleveland -8.5; current line: Cleveland -8.5
Game 1 opening total: 213.5; current total: 212.5
Tuley: If going on current form, this is an ideal situation to look to the underdog. The Pacers are on a five-game winning streak (six-game ATS streak) that earned them a playoff berth, while the Cavaliers are limping in on a four-game losing streak. I'm very aware that the Cavaliers (and LeBron James in particular) are capable of flipping the switch come playoff time (and Cleveland is also 3-0 ATS this season with three or more days of rest), but I'll take the Pacers in the opener just in case it takes the Cavs a little time to get rolling.
If the Pacers cover, I'll back them again, but if they get blown out in Game 1, I'll be more inclined to wait to take them as home underdogs when the series moves to Indiana. I actually like the over in this series' games, starting with Game 1 and continuing as long as I'm making a profit (or if the oddsmakers adjust). As alluded to earlier, I expect the Cavaliers to step up for the playoffs and rediscover their offense. They were 47-34-1 with the over in the regular season mostly due to poor defensive effort. The over/under was 2-2 in the season series between these two teams, but one of those easily could have gone over this total: the Feb. 15 meeting had a total of 219, with the Cavs winning 113-104 at home. Their most recent meeting was April 2, with the Pacers forcing overtime as 8-point underdogs before losing 135-130.
A repeat of that game would be welcome here.
The play: Over 212.5 in Game 1 and over 215 or less in other games; Pacers +8.5 in Game 1 and hoping for Pacers +3.5 at home
No. 3 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks
Series price: Toronto -400/Milwaukee +330
Game 1: Saturday, 5:30 p.m. in Toronto (ESPN)
Game 1 opener: Toronto -7; current line: Toronto -7
Game 1 opening total: 201.5; current total: 200.5
Rynning: The Raptors and Bucks should provide a very watchable series, as the improved development of Giannis Antetokounmpo matches the cagey experienced opposition. The key for the Raptors was the reinforcements they got around the trade deadline; adding Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker helped Toronto finish the campaign ranked No. 13 in defensive efficiency. The addition of Tucker was felt off the court as well, as he is clearly unafraid to lead his new teammates.
After a March 16 shellacking against the Oklahoma City Thunder in which they allowed 123 points, Tucker called for more from his peers, including superscorer DeMar DeRozan. They've answered the bell since that contest with a 12-2 record and third-best defensive rating in the NBA. Key in this series is the multiple defenders they can send at Antetokounmpo with Tucker, DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and even Ibaka.
The Bucks made the playoffs two seasons ago on the strength of a switching defense that took the league by storm, but this unit has since slipped with the league adjusting, ranking only No. 19 in defensive efficiency this season. With a healthy and fresh Kyle Lowry back in control of the point guard position, the Raptors finished with the fourth-fewest turnovers in the NBA, and they will provide too much offensive firepower as well. Toronto is truly live to win the Eastern Conference, while its experience and depth take care of the Bucks in the first round.
The play: Raptors in the first game, while looking to bet the Raptors in individual games
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies
Series price: San Antonio -1600/Memphis +900
Game 1: Saturday, 8 p.m. in San Antonio (ESPN)
Game 1 opener: San Antonio -8.5; current line: San Antonio -9
Game 1 opening total: 192; current total: 191
Rynning: Despite the NBA's small-ball rage and uptick in scoring, the Grizzlies and Spurs accounted for 168 regulation points in their most recent encounter. The Grizzlies are known for their grind and notable defense. However, their defensive numbers slipped in the second half of the season with their age and lack of speed catching up with them. The Spurs should be able to crank up their ball movement, creating issues while making matters worse with the expected loss of Tony Allen.
Meanwhile, there's no slippage from the Spurs, who own the No. 1 defensive efficiency unit in the NBA with the dexterity to maneuver Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to an on-the-ball defender on Mike Conley. The Spurs are still much better by margin against the eroding Grizzlies.
The play: Spurs off a loss in this series
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
Series price: Los Angeles -220/Utah +190
Game 1: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. in Los Angeles (ESPN)
Game 1 opener: Los Angeles -5.5; current line: Los Angeles -5
Game 1 opening total: 200.5; current total: 200.5
Tuley: This series reminds me of the first round of the NCAA tournament when we have two teams that we wish were playing other opponents instead of each other. I can almost guarantee you that I'll be on the survivor of this series taking points against the Warriors in the second round. As for this matchup, I have these two teams rated pretty equally, so I like the Jazz +5 in the opener.
I know the Clippers won the season series 3-1, but I really like how the Jazz match up over a head-to-head, seven-game series, especially with center Rudy Gobert's play on both ends. The Clippers won the last meeting 108-95 on March 25, but Utah's Gordon Hayward and George Hill both scored well below their season averages with just 13 and nine points, respectively, yet the Jazz rallied from a 16-point deficit before falling late. In an evenly matched series like this, I would normally look to back the underdog in each game, though I would also side with the Jazz as a short home favorite (-2 or less).
The play: Jazz +5 in Game 1 (and probably Game 2); Jazz -2 or less in Utah games
No. 4 Washington Wizards vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
Series price: Washington -210/Atlanta +180
Game 1: Sunday, 1 p.m. in Washington (TNT)
Game 1 opener: Washington -5; current line: Washington -5
Game 1 opening total: 210; current total: 211
Rynning: In a playoff series, it's always worth giving the expected better defensive team at an underdog price a long look. The Hawks certainly fit that bill with a season ranking of No. 4 in defensive efficiency, while the Wizards possess a disturbing No. 20 rank. However, the Wizards clearly will enjoy matchup advantages to offset these season-long numbers. The Hawks are solid on the inside with Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap but are shaky on the perimeter defensively. The guard tandem of John Wall and Bradley Beal can wreak havoc against the opposing guards for Atlanta, which includes a shaky 3-point defense.
Meanwhile, the Wizards should feast on the Hawks' turnovers and missed shots. The Hawks were the third-worst team in the NBA in turnovers, while their missed shots compound the trouble of the Wizards' fast break. This should create too many easy baskets (neutralizing the Hawks' rim resistance) for Atlanta's questionable offense to overcome. The Hawks have the worst point differential among playoff teams, and their No. 5 seed is a mirage in the watered-down East.
The pick: Wizards -5 or less in Game 1
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers
Series price: Golden State -20000/Portland +5000
Game 1: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. in Oakland (ABC)
Game 1 opener: Golden State -13.5; current line: Golden State -14.5
Game 1 opening total: 223.5; current total: 222.5
Tuley: Last year, the Warriors beat the Trail Blazers 4-1 in the second round, but Portland made the made the Warriors work for those wins. However, Portland isn't as good this year, even with Damian Lillard carrying the load, and Golden State is arguably better (though last year's team won a record 73 games), so I'm not calling for a series upset, but that doesn't mean I can pass up these inflated points.
My power ratings have this line as Golden State -10.5 at home, so I agree the Warriors should win comfortably, but I have to take the points on principle. The Blazers were blown out in the first two meetings this season but covered the last two meetings by scores of 125-117 and 113-111. I also like the games in this series to go under, as I feel these totals are a little inflated; however, one of Portland's big problems this season was on defense, so I'll pass on the games at Golden State and jump in on the under in Game 3 in Portland. (Note: the Warriors, whom everyone loves to bet over, are 28-13 with the under on the road this season).
The play: Trail Blazers +14.5 in Game 1 and probably plus the points in all games; under in games in Portland
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Chicago Bulls
Series price: Boston -500/Chicago +400
Game 1: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. in Boston (TNT)
Game 1 opener: Boston -8; current line: Boston -8
Game 1 opening total: 207.5; current total: 207.5
Tuley: This looks to me like a case of "be careful what you wish for." The Celtics stole the No. 1 seed in the East and face the No. 8 Bulls, but I think they would have been better off facing the Indiana Pacers, whom they swept 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Instead, they get a more experienced Chicago team that split 2-2 SU and ATS with them on the season and will be a tougher out. The Celtics are 30-11 at home but an awful 17-24 ATS, so they have a hard time winning by margin (and an 8-point cushion in Game 1 looks great to me). The Celtics were 2-0 ATS in the regular-season meetings in Boston, but the first one was a 107-100 win as 3-point favorites.
I'll probably also be on the Bulls when the series moves to Chicago, as they should be short home 'dogs with the adjustment in the spread (they won both home games, the first as a 1-point home fave and then as a 1-point home 'dog). I'm considering taking the under in this series, as the under was 4-0 in their regular-season meetings, though two of the games finished with 207 combined points with higher totals, so Game 1 is priced pretty tight.
The play: Bulls +8 in Game 1 and any time getting points in the series; lean to unders
No. 3 Houston Rockets vs. No. 6 Oklahoma City Thunder
Series price: Houston -380/Oklahoma City +320
Game 1: Sunday, 9 p.m. in Houston (TNT)
Game 1 opener: Houston -7.5; current line: Houston -7.5
Game 1 opening total: 228.5; current total: 228.5
Rynning: It's difficult to top the Thunder and Rockets in this epic first-round matchup with Russell Westbrook facing off against James Harden. The teams match up admirably, with Patrick Beverley against Westbrook, and the duo of Victor Oladipo and Andre Roberson checking Harden. However, after the MVP faceoff, these are two very different clubs.
The Rockets love to launch the 3-point shot, while the Thunder shoot an NBA-worst 32.7 percent from deep. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in rebounding, and converting its second-chance point opportunities will prove vital. From an efficiency standpoint, the Thunder need to make up the difference, and their bullying big men against the softer Rockets own the distinct advantage. In addition, much is made of the lesser supporting cast for Westbrook versus Harden. In a playoff setting, the Thunder are positioned to get more out of Westbrook.
While he averaged just under 35 minutes per game in the regular season, that number should approach 40 in this series. With OKC getting outscored by about nine points per 100 possessions without Westbrook, his minutes played can again shrink the Rockets' advantage. No question, the Rockets are the better and deeper team, but the Thunder garner the price shot in this series.
The pick: Thunder in the series +320
Dave Tuley Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
4/15/17
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA playoffs start this weekend, and things look a lot different than they did a short time ago.
After the Cleveland Cavaliers knocked off the Golden State Warriors in last June's NBA finals and the Warriors added Kevin Durant in the offseason, a lot of people assumed they'd meet again in this year's Finals, and they've been prohibitive favorites to win their respective conferences all season. But the Warriors haven't been the unbeatable force that most people were expecting, while the Cavaliers have looked especially vulnerable down the stretch and even lost the East's No. 1 seed to the Boston Celtics.
However, this is still the NBA and all series are best-of-seven, so it's hard for an underdog to pull a series upset, which is why most of our approach in this betting guide will be in looking for spot plays in individual games. We certainly make it clear who we like to advance if you want to use that as an endorsement of a series bet.
As for futures bets, most of the value has been sucked out of them. However, both Rynning and I have previously tabbed the Toronto Raptors as the best value on the board, as I picked them last summer as my value bet to win the NBA title, while Rynning gave them a shot to win the Eastern Conference back at the All-Star break.
Here is our breakdown of the eight first-round series.
Note from yours truly, Dave Tuley: In comparing the Game 1 point spreads to my personal power ratings that I contributed to ESPN Chalk's Vegas Power Ratings, I give a slight edge to all the underdogs in Game 1, but the four series I'm breaking down represent the four underdogs that I believe are the most live.
All odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning, April 14, but we certainly advise to shop around for the best numbers on the bets you're looking to make.
All times are Eastern.
No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers
Series price: Cleveland -1200/Indiana +750
Game 1: Saturday, 3 p.m. in Cleveland (ABC)
Game 1 opener: Cleveland -8.5; current line: Cleveland -8.5
Game 1 opening total: 213.5; current total: 212.5
Tuley: If going on current form, this is an ideal situation to look to the underdog. The Pacers are on a five-game winning streak (six-game ATS streak) that earned them a playoff berth, while the Cavaliers are limping in on a four-game losing streak. I'm very aware that the Cavaliers (and LeBron James in particular) are capable of flipping the switch come playoff time (and Cleveland is also 3-0 ATS this season with three or more days of rest), but I'll take the Pacers in the opener just in case it takes the Cavs a little time to get rolling.
If the Pacers cover, I'll back them again, but if they get blown out in Game 1, I'll be more inclined to wait to take them as home underdogs when the series moves to Indiana. I actually like the over in this series' games, starting with Game 1 and continuing as long as I'm making a profit (or if the oddsmakers adjust). As alluded to earlier, I expect the Cavaliers to step up for the playoffs and rediscover their offense. They were 47-34-1 with the over in the regular season mostly due to poor defensive effort. The over/under was 2-2 in the season series between these two teams, but one of those easily could have gone over this total: the Feb. 15 meeting had a total of 219, with the Cavs winning 113-104 at home. Their most recent meeting was April 2, with the Pacers forcing overtime as 8-point underdogs before losing 135-130.
A repeat of that game would be welcome here.
The play: Over 212.5 in Game 1 and over 215 or less in other games; Pacers +8.5 in Game 1 and hoping for Pacers +3.5 at home
No. 3 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks
Series price: Toronto -400/Milwaukee +330
Game 1: Saturday, 5:30 p.m. in Toronto (ESPN)
Game 1 opener: Toronto -7; current line: Toronto -7
Game 1 opening total: 201.5; current total: 200.5
Rynning: The Raptors and Bucks should provide a very watchable series, as the improved development of Giannis Antetokounmpo matches the cagey experienced opposition. The key for the Raptors was the reinforcements they got around the trade deadline; adding Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker helped Toronto finish the campaign ranked No. 13 in defensive efficiency. The addition of Tucker was felt off the court as well, as he is clearly unafraid to lead his new teammates.
After a March 16 shellacking against the Oklahoma City Thunder in which they allowed 123 points, Tucker called for more from his peers, including superscorer DeMar DeRozan. They've answered the bell since that contest with a 12-2 record and third-best defensive rating in the NBA. Key in this series is the multiple defenders they can send at Antetokounmpo with Tucker, DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and even Ibaka.
The Bucks made the playoffs two seasons ago on the strength of a switching defense that took the league by storm, but this unit has since slipped with the league adjusting, ranking only No. 19 in defensive efficiency this season. With a healthy and fresh Kyle Lowry back in control of the point guard position, the Raptors finished with the fourth-fewest turnovers in the NBA, and they will provide too much offensive firepower as well. Toronto is truly live to win the Eastern Conference, while its experience and depth take care of the Bucks in the first round.
The play: Raptors in the first game, while looking to bet the Raptors in individual games
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies
Series price: San Antonio -1600/Memphis +900
Game 1: Saturday, 8 p.m. in San Antonio (ESPN)
Game 1 opener: San Antonio -8.5; current line: San Antonio -9
Game 1 opening total: 192; current total: 191
Rynning: Despite the NBA's small-ball rage and uptick in scoring, the Grizzlies and Spurs accounted for 168 regulation points in their most recent encounter. The Grizzlies are known for their grind and notable defense. However, their defensive numbers slipped in the second half of the season with their age and lack of speed catching up with them. The Spurs should be able to crank up their ball movement, creating issues while making matters worse with the expected loss of Tony Allen.
Meanwhile, there's no slippage from the Spurs, who own the No. 1 defensive efficiency unit in the NBA with the dexterity to maneuver Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to an on-the-ball defender on Mike Conley. The Spurs are still much better by margin against the eroding Grizzlies.
The play: Spurs off a loss in this series
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
Series price: Los Angeles -220/Utah +190
Game 1: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. in Los Angeles (ESPN)
Game 1 opener: Los Angeles -5.5; current line: Los Angeles -5
Game 1 opening total: 200.5; current total: 200.5
Tuley: This series reminds me of the first round of the NCAA tournament when we have two teams that we wish were playing other opponents instead of each other. I can almost guarantee you that I'll be on the survivor of this series taking points against the Warriors in the second round. As for this matchup, I have these two teams rated pretty equally, so I like the Jazz +5 in the opener.
I know the Clippers won the season series 3-1, but I really like how the Jazz match up over a head-to-head, seven-game series, especially with center Rudy Gobert's play on both ends. The Clippers won the last meeting 108-95 on March 25, but Utah's Gordon Hayward and George Hill both scored well below their season averages with just 13 and nine points, respectively, yet the Jazz rallied from a 16-point deficit before falling late. In an evenly matched series like this, I would normally look to back the underdog in each game, though I would also side with the Jazz as a short home favorite (-2 or less).
The play: Jazz +5 in Game 1 (and probably Game 2); Jazz -2 or less in Utah games
No. 4 Washington Wizards vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
Series price: Washington -210/Atlanta +180
Game 1: Sunday, 1 p.m. in Washington (TNT)
Game 1 opener: Washington -5; current line: Washington -5
Game 1 opening total: 210; current total: 211
Rynning: In a playoff series, it's always worth giving the expected better defensive team at an underdog price a long look. The Hawks certainly fit that bill with a season ranking of No. 4 in defensive efficiency, while the Wizards possess a disturbing No. 20 rank. However, the Wizards clearly will enjoy matchup advantages to offset these season-long numbers. The Hawks are solid on the inside with Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap but are shaky on the perimeter defensively. The guard tandem of John Wall and Bradley Beal can wreak havoc against the opposing guards for Atlanta, which includes a shaky 3-point defense.
Meanwhile, the Wizards should feast on the Hawks' turnovers and missed shots. The Hawks were the third-worst team in the NBA in turnovers, while their missed shots compound the trouble of the Wizards' fast break. This should create too many easy baskets (neutralizing the Hawks' rim resistance) for Atlanta's questionable offense to overcome. The Hawks have the worst point differential among playoff teams, and their No. 5 seed is a mirage in the watered-down East.
The pick: Wizards -5 or less in Game 1
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers
Series price: Golden State -20000/Portland +5000
Game 1: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. in Oakland (ABC)
Game 1 opener: Golden State -13.5; current line: Golden State -14.5
Game 1 opening total: 223.5; current total: 222.5
Tuley: Last year, the Warriors beat the Trail Blazers 4-1 in the second round, but Portland made the made the Warriors work for those wins. However, Portland isn't as good this year, even with Damian Lillard carrying the load, and Golden State is arguably better (though last year's team won a record 73 games), so I'm not calling for a series upset, but that doesn't mean I can pass up these inflated points.
My power ratings have this line as Golden State -10.5 at home, so I agree the Warriors should win comfortably, but I have to take the points on principle. The Blazers were blown out in the first two meetings this season but covered the last two meetings by scores of 125-117 and 113-111. I also like the games in this series to go under, as I feel these totals are a little inflated; however, one of Portland's big problems this season was on defense, so I'll pass on the games at Golden State and jump in on the under in Game 3 in Portland. (Note: the Warriors, whom everyone loves to bet over, are 28-13 with the under on the road this season).
The play: Trail Blazers +14.5 in Game 1 and probably plus the points in all games; under in games in Portland
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Chicago Bulls
Series price: Boston -500/Chicago +400
Game 1: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. in Boston (TNT)
Game 1 opener: Boston -8; current line: Boston -8
Game 1 opening total: 207.5; current total: 207.5
Tuley: This looks to me like a case of "be careful what you wish for." The Celtics stole the No. 1 seed in the East and face the No. 8 Bulls, but I think they would have been better off facing the Indiana Pacers, whom they swept 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Instead, they get a more experienced Chicago team that split 2-2 SU and ATS with them on the season and will be a tougher out. The Celtics are 30-11 at home but an awful 17-24 ATS, so they have a hard time winning by margin (and an 8-point cushion in Game 1 looks great to me). The Celtics were 2-0 ATS in the regular-season meetings in Boston, but the first one was a 107-100 win as 3-point favorites.
I'll probably also be on the Bulls when the series moves to Chicago, as they should be short home 'dogs with the adjustment in the spread (they won both home games, the first as a 1-point home fave and then as a 1-point home 'dog). I'm considering taking the under in this series, as the under was 4-0 in their regular-season meetings, though two of the games finished with 207 combined points with higher totals, so Game 1 is priced pretty tight.
The play: Bulls +8 in Game 1 and any time getting points in the series; lean to unders
No. 3 Houston Rockets vs. No. 6 Oklahoma City Thunder
Series price: Houston -380/Oklahoma City +320
Game 1: Sunday, 9 p.m. in Houston (TNT)
Game 1 opener: Houston -7.5; current line: Houston -7.5
Game 1 opening total: 228.5; current total: 228.5
Rynning: It's difficult to top the Thunder and Rockets in this epic first-round matchup with Russell Westbrook facing off against James Harden. The teams match up admirably, with Patrick Beverley against Westbrook, and the duo of Victor Oladipo and Andre Roberson checking Harden. However, after the MVP faceoff, these are two very different clubs.
The Rockets love to launch the 3-point shot, while the Thunder shoot an NBA-worst 32.7 percent from deep. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in rebounding, and converting its second-chance point opportunities will prove vital. From an efficiency standpoint, the Thunder need to make up the difference, and their bullying big men against the softer Rockets own the distinct advantage. In addition, much is made of the lesser supporting cast for Westbrook versus Harden. In a playoff setting, the Thunder are positioned to get more out of Westbrook.
While he averaged just under 35 minutes per game in the regular season, that number should approach 40 in this series. With OKC getting outscored by about nine points per 100 possessions without Westbrook, his minutes played can again shrink the Rockets' advantage. No question, the Rockets are the better and deeper team, but the Thunder garner the price shot in this series.
The pick: Thunder in the series +320
