Pedroia15 MLB thread

pedroia15 · Apr 29, 2017

Hi, I am new here. Let me introduce myself. I have been capping for the last 10 years or so in american sports and I will be doing the same here from now on. I usually put explanations in my plays but it all depends on the time I have. This will be my first day here so be nice with me please

Good luck if you follow me and the same if you dont.

pedroia15 · Apr 29, 2017

For today:

Pittsburgh +116

Explanation:

How is playing Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh shouldnt be the underdog here.

Yeah, it is true that the Pirates offense is not working fine so far but with Nova pitching, I give them more than 50% of chances to win this match and the odds are even higher. Nova is 2-2 this season with a 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, by far the best starter in the Pirates rotation. So far, he has started 4 times on the mound and all of them were quality starts, even the losses. And that was facing teams like the Yankees or the Cards that are good enough to be considered a success the Nova's performance.
This year the Marlins stepped forward or at least they did in the first 20 games. With they playing better than previous seasons, their record is still negative with the actual 10-11. Of course that they have good names like Stanton, Dee Gordon, Prado, Yelich ... but somehow the team is far from being a winner. Today with Straily on the mound, I cannot consider them the favourite in this match. So far this season, Straily played 20.2 innings in 4 games started with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He faced the Padres, the Braves, the Mets and the Nationals. Only the Nationals could be considered a good team offensively and his performance was not good, allowing 5 runs in just 3.1 innings.
Well, I like Pittsburgh a lot in this one. They have a better pitcher on the mound into my eyes, their bullpen is way better but the main problem is their offense, still asleep. If the batters start connecting with the ball, I am pretty sure that this will be an easy one for the Pirates and if they play like they did so far this season, the match wont be easy but I still think the Pirates could take the win here.
GL!

dg84 · Apr 29, 2017

Good luck with your plays.

indiana · Apr 29, 2017

P/15.........welcome to the RX baseball forum, sure you will enjoy the site...........many good cappers here.........good luck with your action.........indy

pedroia15 · Apr 29, 2017

Thank you guys!!! I really apreciate it

Second play of the night:

Minnesota +115

Minnesota is playing really well lately, their offense is working while their pitching has been there to keep them alive in the games so ... I like to risk a little bit with them in this one.

Phil Hughes on the mound. The previous game was against Texas and I watched it. I really liked how he played, confident when the Rangers had people on bases and making few mistakes in his appareance that lasted 6 innings with 2 earned runs against a powerfull offense like the Rangers'. His numbers this season are not that good because he has two horrendous games, agaisnt Detroit and Cleveland, for me two very dangerous teams offensively. I expect him posting better numbers in the rest of the season if he keeps playing like he did in Texas but so far his numbers are a 4.71 ERA in 21 innings played with a 3-1 record.

The positive record that Hughes have is simply impressive if we know that his ERA is 4.71 ... that talks about the Minnesotas offense so far this season. The team is hitting really well and I can understand that when they have names like Sano, Kepler, Rosario or Dozier hitting that well. It could sounds crazy but if they keep playing that well, they will have a shot to the playoffs because the AL Central have too many irregular teams like the Tigers, White Sox or Royals. Only the Indians are a trustable team so we will see.

Kansas City will put Hammel on the mound, a pitcher that is without a win since he left Chicago. 0-2 this year with a 5.30 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Not good numbers for a pitcher that was brought to give the Royals some depth to their rotation but that didnt work so far. He is not bad at all, but not in his best moment. He already faced Minnesota and got a loss after a 5 inning performance where he gave up 3 earned runs. Very inconsistent outings so far from Hammel.

Offensively, the Kansas City Royals are the worst team in the league at this point. 58 runs scored so far this season makes this team the worst in the league by 23 runs ... Minnesota has scored 94. Big difference for a team that is not pitching well either thanks to an atrocious bullpen that is 2-7 with a ridiculous 5.91 ERA.

At this point, to see the Royals as favourite is simply a joke and I have to take the Twins with such odds. I think that the numbers are there to show you that it worth it, or at least that is what I think so ... Lets take Minnesota in this one as underdog.

pedroia15 · Apr 29, 2017

Last MLB pick for today. I am taking the Giants.

Giants -117

It is always easy to go against the Padres, probably one of the worst rosters in baseball and even knowing that Cain is not a reliable pitcher, I see the odds high enough to take the Giants here.

Chacin has been a disaster this season playing far from San Diego. His numbers this season are not that bad but that is because in Petco Park his performances were huge, allowing 0 runs in 14.2 innings played. But, if we take a look to his numbers playing away ... it is not the same. 0-3 record with a 11.93 ERA with the battes hitting .381, 4 home runs allowed, 8 BB ... and all of that in just 14.1 innings. Nothing more to say.

Offensively, we all know the Padres. One of the worst teams in the league in this aspect and the pitching is not going better because they have no team to compete in this league. Their bullpen has been one of the worst too with 5.45 ERA in 74.1 innings but the worst thing is I dont expect the Padres improving in any of these aspects of the game. As simple as that.

The Giants have an amazing team, and amazing roster, and it is matter of time to see them winning games after games and the Padres seems to be the perfect team to start with. San Francisco is a team that cannot afford a 9-15 record.

Cain started very well this year. 2-0 record with a low 2.42 ERA, 15 strikeouts in just 22.1 innings and giving pretty good sensations so far. We all know Cain so lets say that we cant go crazy about his start because he won be posting those numbers all season long. Anyway, he is in a great moment so lets take advantage of that.

The Giants offense is not showing up so far but they have enough potential, enough firepower to be considered a good team at bat. The bullpen has not been that bad so far.

It is simple into my eyes, both teams are playing horrible but it is clear that the Giants will improve sooner or later while the Padres will be for sure one of the worst teams at the end of the year. I like the matchup, I like the odds so ... I have to take the Giants here.

pedroia15 · Apr 29, 2017

3 plays for today:

Pittsburgh +116
Minnesota +115
San Francisco -117

Good luck!

pedroia15 · Apr 29, 2017

Im in shock right now. 8 runs for the Padres in a singel inning ... Cain left the field and the couple Stratton-Ramirez managed to allow 8 runs in 6 hits, in 1 inning!! against the Padres!!

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Well, 1-1 yesterday. +0.16 units (I will post here with flat stake, 1 unit).

For today, Minnesota that was postponed yesterday and I will post the rest in few minutes.

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Im a little bit late so the write ups will be short today:

Tampa Bay -105

I trust Archer and for me, the Tampa Bay Rays should take this one.

Toronto is having a lot of troubles to score. They are without Donaldson and the team is showing that without him and Encarnación is offensively armless.

The pitchers are probably the best from both teams. Aaron Sanchez was a top prospect that is showing why the Blue Jays were very confident about him and Archer will be on the mound for the Rays, one of the best pitchers in the league into my eyes.

I take Tampa just because their offense is doing great so far while the Blue Jays batters are simply not hitting anything. It wont be easy and I expect a tight match but Archer is for sure the bet in here.

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Orioles +111

I was expecting Machado leading this Orioles and so far, I was wrong. Manny is not hitting that well thsi season but the Baltimore Orioles managed to have an amazing 14-8 record. I can understand that because their roster is simply amazing. One of the best hitting teams in the league and today with Miley on the mound. I like them to take the win.
Montgomery is one of the kids in the Yankees franchise but I dont like him too much. He has command problems sometimes and not close to be a top prospect into my eyes and today he will have in front a top flight roster at bat so I expect troubles for him.
The value is clearly on the Orioles side. They are batting great and the pitching matchup is favourable for them, or at least that is what I think. They are underdog and they shouldnt be so ... I take the Orioles here

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Nats +106

Give me the Nationals as underdogs please.

The Mets won twice in a row in Washington and today they are favourite with Syndergaard on the mound. I really think that the Nationals are way better as a team and the fact that Thor will start should be enough to put the Mets as favourites. Ross had a rough outing in the previous match but he is a trustable pitcher and I expect him puttign in troubles the weak offense the Mets have.

I think that this match is a 60-40 for the Nationals and they are underdog. We have to remember that Thor arrives here after having troubles with his arm this week. His scheduled start was pushed back from thursday and we will see how it goes, but I think he cannot be at 100% for this game.

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Brewers +103

Another dog that I like for today is Milwaukee.

The Brewers are hitting really well, even better playing at home, and today they are underdogs against the Braves that will be with Foltynewicz on the mound. Probably one of the best pitchers in the Braves but not an ace, not even close. I think that he is hittable and the Brewers showed an amazing improvement at bat this year with players like Thames hitting almost everything.

The Braves will face Garza, a pitcher that the past year was a gift to bat against him but we saw a great outing in his last start. If he keeps the level in the rest of the season, I think he will easily finish with a positive record, and that is a great improvement from his 6-8 from the past season and even better than the 6-14 from two seasons ago.

For me the value is clearly on the Brewers.

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Rangers +101

And the last one for me is the Rangers ML.

I like Texas and with Perez on the mound they should bigger favourites into my eyes. Somehow this team is struggling at bat some days while others they are crushing the ball. That is the big problem here, the ups and downs they have at bat. But I think the Angels are on the same spot.

The Perez Ramirez matchup is favourable for the Rangers I think while I think the Rangers are better at bat in general. Of course that Trout can destroy any team in the league but the rest of the Angels roster is not hitting almost anything. Too much names, not that good numbers at bat.

I like Texas.

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Syndergaard left the field with apparent arm injury. As I said, he was having troubles this week with that and now the Nationals should take the win easily. The over has been crushed too ... that was probably the best bet for this match

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

over 8.5 in Fenway (Boston vs CHC) +104

Last one for today.

The money pushed this over to odds that are simply a must take. +104 at this moment for the third match between the Cubs and the Red Sox this year with the previous two cashing the over.

Hendricks and Rodriguez are the starting pitchers listed. I dont like any of them, but they are not that bad to consider this bet a lock. What I like is that the interleague games are always crazier and both teams can hit, so the over sounds great to me. Cubs are a great hitting team against lefties and Rodriguez is a lefty while the Red Sox are amazing hitting against righties and Hendricks is rightie. If you take a look to the past season numbers, both teams were on top or close to it against lefties and righties, and this year they are almost in the same spot.

Boston should finally find their pace to score runs because they have enough firepower to punish any pitcher in the league while the Cubs are hitting as expected. Just Bryant is underperforming into my eyes.

I like the over. Great odds, great ballpark, great hitters in both teams ... lets take it.

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

So, great day so far.

today: 4-2, +2.3 units
global: 5-3, +2.46 units

Over 8.5 in fenway still open

Ugly losses by the way. Tampa Bay was leading with Archer on the mound, he left and then Toronto scored 3 runs in the bottom of the eight. The Ranger's loss was deserved. Awful day at bat and the Angels were better, it was that simple so deserved loss.

Kysps2020 · Apr 30, 2017

Over in six game just not good play right now. Can't hit worth a flip as a team right now

pedroia15 · Apr 30, 2017

Kysps2020 said:
Over in six game just not good play right now. Can't hit worth a flip as a team right now

The over started really well with a two run blast in the first, but since then, nothing happened but strikeouts for both pitchers ... damn

kid31 · Apr 30, 2017

with MLB totals; always do the opposite of what makes perfect sense I've learned. It's taken me 20 years, but thats usually the outcome. Unders in Kershaw games never hit and overs in games like tonight never do either. Always go opposite of what should happen on MLB totals.