Kentucky Derby 2017 - Time For Another Great Derby !

elevenblack301 · Apr 29, 2017

:aktion033 Once again, the Derby is upon us, with one week to post time here are some of the contenders and some of their numbers..........

............................PPower.......Beyer.......Speed........L Pace........9F Time ..# 9F.......C D Trk..........G1

I War Cry.................1.48.3..........88.3.........101.33.........96.33........1:50.4.......1................................0
C Empire................148.2...........94.3..........98.66..........95.66........1:48.4.......1.........2 / 2-0-0..........4
Malagacy.................146.2............92.6.........97.00..........91.00.........1:49.1.......1................................1
Batt Runner.............145.9...........94.6 .........98.00..........92.66.........1:51.1.......1................................0
Gormley..................145.8...........90.6 .........97.33..........80.33.........1:51.0.......1................................3
Gunnervera.............145.8...........93.3 .........98.00.........103.33.........1:48.4.......1...............................2
Practical Jk ..............145.3...........90.0.........97.30..........89.66.u........1:50.3......1................................3
Tapwrit....................144.8..........88.3 ........95.00..........91.00...........1:52.3.......1...............................0
Girvin......................144.0..........90.3 ........94.33.u........99.66..........1:49.3.......1...............................0
McCracken...............143.8..........89.6 ........96.00...........94.66..........1:51.0.......1........3 / 3-0-0...........0
Always Drm.............143.3..........84.3 ........91.66..........103.33.........1:47.2.......2................................1
Royal Mo.................143.3..........84.6..........91.33...........77.33..........1:51.1.......1................................0
J Boys Echo.............142.8..........90.0..........96.66............99.33.........1:51.3.......1..........1 / 0-1-0..........0
Irap.......................142.7..........83.0.u.......93.00.u..........82.66..........1:49.4.......2.................................1
Battle Mdy .............142.2..........84.0.u.......92.00.u..........81.66..........1:51.1.......1.................................1
Hence....................140.7..........84.3.u.......91.66.u.........87.00..........1:48.0.......1..........1 / 0-1-0..........0
State Honor............140.6..........90.0..........96.33.u..........89.33..........1:48.2.......1.................................1
Local Hero..............140.0..........87.3..........93.00.u..........86.33..........1:50.1.......1.........1 / 0-1-0...........0
Untrapped..............140.0.........88.6...........93.00............94.00...........1:49.4.......1.........1 / 1-0-0...........1
Patch.....................138.7.........80.6.u........93.00 ............95.66..........1:50.0........1................................0
Lookin Lee..............136.3.........86.6.u.......90.66.u...........96.00.u........1:49.1.......1.........2 / 0-1-1..........3
Sonneteer...............134.6.........86.0.u.......91.66.u..........100.66.u.......1:49.1.......1................................1
Fast & Accu.............132.9........75.6.u........84.00.u............83.66..........1:50.4.......1...............................0
Master Plan.............127.7........80.3.u........89.00 .............105.33.........................0................................0
Thunder Snow...........................N / A.......................................................................................................

Who is going to take the 'prize' this year. ..Who do you like........?

Be well all, life is short............enjoy........

elevenblack301 · Apr 29, 2017

And some short comments on the possible players..............,

Gunnevera
----- only missed superfecta once in 9 starts
----- needs a quick pace up front and may get it
----- if he can avoid traffic ( a big if ), will be coming on strong down the stretch

Girvin
----- perfect 3-3 on dirt surface
----- this colt just seems to keep coming
----- quarter crack ?, really liked the chances he had before this news

Always Dreaming
----- the top contender for Pletcher
----- Pletcher’s record in the derby an abysmal 1-43
----- difficult to believe he will repeat his F Drby performance

McCracken
----- this colt is 3 for 3 at Churchill, nice
----- ankle injury a couple month’s prior, not nice
----- but believe he should move forward off his last race

Classic Empire
----- great effort in Arkansas
----- missed time due to that hoof abscess
----- like McCracken he is 2-2 on the CD surface

Hence
----- is the Sunland Derby a strong prep this year ?....may be
----- think Asmussen has a chance with this colt

Practical Joke
---- will he have blinkers ?
---- always hitting the board, 6 for 6 in the tri

Gormley
----- seems like the horses out west are somewhat weak this year
----- has a good/bad race pattern, and it’s time for his bad race again

Thunder Snow
----- no horse exiting the UAE Derby has ever finished better than 5th in the Derby
----- could be intriguing, but travel must be murder on these young colts

Battle of Midway
----- could be the best of the ‘pressers ‘ in this race
----- another of the western bunch

Lookin at Lee
----- another horse which always finishes strong, watch his stretch run in the Ark Drby
----- appears bred to run all day long, and will be in this race

Irish War Cry
----- nice comeback in the Wood after weak effort in FOY
----- throw out that FOY and he is 4-4

Irap
----- has run 4 times in a 9 week period
----- will he have anything left in his tank...

Tapwrit
----- flopped in Blue Grass, may have not liked surface
----- another Pletcher runner.....and we know that story

Sonneteer
---- still a maiden after 10 starts
---- another that always seems to hit the board
---- watch his late running style, nice

J Boys Echo
----- still trying to get a handle on this one
----- Dale Romans may surprise

State of Honor
----- a massive colt with strong turn of foot
----- likes to be on or near the lead

Patch
---- only has 3 starts under his belt
---- think that says it all, but a great story

Battalion Runner
----- think Pletcher will make this colt his rabbit
----- will that strategy backfire

Untrapped
----- seems to be going backwards ( lowers numbers ) and of course not good
----- even with M Smith aboard in Ark could not turn it around

Fast and Accurate
----- lone try on dirt did not go well
----- that might be all that needs to be said

Malagacy
----- like Untrapped, here is another colt that is regressing
----- think he will not run

......be well all..................have a great day..........

wabashwonders · Apr 29, 2017

Welcome back 11black, good to see you posting info on Derby again. Malagacy and Battalion Runner are both out of Derby, Pletcher said today. My top pick is Lookin at Lee. Looking forward to your insight.

elevenblack301 · Apr 29, 2017

wabash,

thanks........good to hear from you again, ...................I like your choice "Lookin at Lee" very much.................believe that he, along with Gunnevera and Hence have a great chance to hit the board...............maybe 2 out those 3 will hit it, who knows.

just can't see chalk coming up again, think it has been 3 years in a row now for the Derby, .........should be about time the 'dogs' begin to bark again................let's try and break this down...........

be well,.............

Kaboom · May 1, 2017

Get em 11 !!!

elevenblack301 · May 1, 2017

:think2:...................Some interesting stuff for those who are interested in this ‘ interesting stuff “

Which horses carry the X Factor gene; most I have seen in a derby in a long time.....

---- Always Dreaming
----- Classic Empire
----- Girvin
----- Gormley
----- Gunnevera
----- Irap
----- Irish War Cry
----- Mccracken
----- Patch
----- Practical joke
----- Royal Mo
----- Thunder Snow

Horses which are 1st to 4th foals....

----- Battle of Midway - 2nd
----- Classic empire - 4th
----- Girvin - 2nd
----- Gormley - 1st
----- McCracken - 2nd
----- Sonneteer - 2nd
----- Thunder Snow - 4th
----- Untrapped - 3rd

So, what do you think ?

Be well all........................

Kaboom · May 2, 2017

elevenblack301 said:
:think2:...................Some interesting stuff for those who are interested in this ‘ interesting stuff “

Which horses carry the X Factor gene; most I have seen in a derby in a long time.....

---- Always Dreaming
----- Classic Empire
----- Girvin
----- Gormley
----- Gunnevera
----- Irap
----- Irish War Cry
----- Mccracken
----- Patch
----- Practical joke
----- Royal Mo
----- Thunder Snow

Horses which are 1st to 4th foals....

----- Battle of Midway - 2nd
----- Classic empire - 4th
----- Girvin - 2nd
----- Gormley - 1st
----- McCracken - 2nd
----- Sonneteer - 2nd
----- Thunder Snow - 4th
----- Untrapped - 3rd

So, what do you think ?

Be well all........................

Solid info bro ... thx

Any idea of how many derby winners were 1st to 4th foals....???

elevenblack301 · May 2, 2017

Kaboom said:
Solid info bro ... thx

Any idea of how many derby winners were 1st to 4th foals....???

kaboom,

I believe the last 6 derby winners were 1st to 4th foals, and maybe even 1st to 2nd foals.......................have to research that again, ............an interesting trend to say the least..................

thanks and be well...............

Kaboom · May 2, 2017

elevenblack301 said:
kaboom,

I believe the last 6 derby winners were 1st to 4th foals, and maybe even 1st to 2nd foals.......................have to research that again, ............an interesting trend to say the least..................

thanks and be well...............

Yes it is ... also ...calling for possible rain .... track dries out quick , so may not matter too much ....

Kaboom · May 2, 2017

elevenblack301 said:
:aktion033 Once again, the Derby is upon us, with one week to post time here are some of the contenders and some of their numbers..........

............................PPower.......Beyer.......Speed........L Pace........9F Time ..# 9F.......C D Trk..........G1

I War Cry.................1.48.3..........88.3.........101.33.........96.33........1:50.4.......1................................0
C Empire................148.2...........94.3..........98.66..........95.66........1:48.4.......1.........2 / 2-0-0..........4
Malagacy.................146.2............92.6.........97.00..........91.00.........1:49.1.......1................................1
Batt Runner.............145.9...........94.6 .........98.00..........92.66.........1:51.1.......1................................0
Gormley..................145.8...........90.6 .........97.33..........80.33.........1:51.0.......1................................3
Gunnervera.............145.8...........93.3 .........98.00.........103.33.........1:48.4.......1...............................2
Practical Jk ..............145.3...........90.0.........97.30..........89.66.u........1:50.3......1................................3
Tapwrit....................144.8..........88.3 ........95.00..........91.00...........1:52.3.......1...............................0
Girvin......................144.0..........90.3 ........94.33.u........99.66..........1:49.3.......1...............................0
McCracken...............143.8..........89.6 ........96.00...........94.66..........1:51.0.......1........3 / 3-0-0...........0
Always Drm.............143.3..........84.3 ........91.66..........103.33.........1:47.2.......2................................1
Royal Mo.................143.3..........84.6..........91.33...........77.33..........1:51.1.......1................................0
J Boys Echo.............142.8..........90.0..........96.66............99.33.........1:51.3.......1..........1 / 0-1-0..........0
Irap.......................142.7..........83.0.u.......93.00.u..........82.66..........1:49.4.......2.................................1
Battle Mdy .............142.2..........84.0.u.......92.00.u..........81.66..........1:51.1.......1.................................1
Hence....................140.7..........84.3.u.......91.66.u.........87.00..........1:48.0.......1..........1 / 0-1-0..........0
State Honor............140.6..........90.0..........96.33.u..........89.33..........1:48.2.......1.................................1
Local Hero..............140.0..........87.3..........93.00.u..........86.33..........1:50.1.......1.........1 / 0-1-0...........0
Untrapped..............140.0.........88.6...........93.00............94.00...........1:49.4.......1.........1 / 1-0-0...........1
Patch.....................138.7.........80.6.u........93.00 ............95.66..........1:50.0........1................................0
Lookin Lee..............136.3.........86.6.u.......90.66.u...........96.00.u........1:49.1.......1.........2 / 0-1-1..........3
Sonneteer...............134.6.........86.0.u.......91.66.u..........100.66.u.......1:49.1.......1................................1
Fast & Accu.............132.9........75.6.u........84.00.u............83.66..........1:50.4.......1...............................0
Master Plan.............127.7........80.3.u........89.00 .............105.33.........................0................................0
Thunder Snow...........................N / A.......................................................................................................

Who is going to take the 'prize' this year. ..Who do you like........?

Be well all, life is short............enjoy........

Tapwrit ...his time on March 11th G2 1 1/16th / Time 142.1 .... That speed in that race is as good as any in the Derby ... I realize ...it's Pletcher ...terrible derby trainer ....but this is nice price shot ...imo ...and he will be in all my gimmicks ...

Throw McCraken's last race and the way he likes CD .... part of my gimmicks too....

Always respect your thoughts bro ...

elevenblack301 · May 2, 2017

kaboom,

really love McCracken..................this horse relishes this track....................and liked Girvin, but know wondering about that quarter crack.................

Lookin at Lee and Sonneteer are two colts that have gotten better in their numbers ( beyer, speed, late pace ) in their last few races.................a sign I like to see..................think one of them will be in the super..........

be well............

LENBO · May 2, 2017

This might be helpful for Saturday

Wet Tomlinson Figures
This measure of a horse's ability on a wet track was the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who studied past performances of a sample of horses based on how they performed on wet tracks and their pedigrees. A wet Tomlinson score ranges from 0 to 480 (a perfect score). Experts have noted that a score of 320 warrants consideration of a horse that should perform well on an off-track. Based on my annual Derby spreadsheet, the following horses have the top wet Tomlinson figures heading into the Derby:

PP*	Horse	Wet	ML*
	Irish War Cry	443
	Tapwrit	441
	McCraken	435
	Irap	418
	Battle of Midway	417
	Practical Joke	413
	Royal Mo	402
	State of Honor	400
	Hence	398
	Patch	393

*To be determined on Wednesday at 11 a.m. EDT.

Pedigree
Some of the bloodlines that are part of the current field can be traced back to horses that have solid wet track influences can be traced to sires such as Curlin, Malibu Moon and A.P. Indy.
The horses that are part of said bloodlines include Irish War Cry, Gormley, Hence and Patch. Sonneteer's sire Midnight Lute won a Breeders' Cup Sprint championship in the slop at Monmouth Park in 2007. Irish War Cry’s sire Curlin, won the Breeders' Cup Classic at a mile-and-a-quarter that same year in the slop by open lengths. Gormley’s sire Malibu Moon produced 2015 winner Orb.

Actual Off-Track Performances
Of the horses in the field, six horses have wins on an off-track: Classic Empire (maiden at 4.5F), Gormley (G3 Sham), Tapwrit ($75K stake), Hence(maiden at 8.5F), Battle of Midway (wet fast, maiden at 6F), and Royal Mo(good, maiden at 1m). Three horses have placed on off-tracks, Untrapped, Lookin at Lee and Sonneteer. Only Gormley accomplished the feat in a stakes race and Hence and Gormley at a distance greater than a mile.

wabashwonders · May 2, 2017

elevenblack301 said:
kaboom,

really love McCracken..................this horse relishes this track....................and liked Girvin, but know wondering about that quarter crack.................

Lookin at Lee and Sonneteer are two colts that have gotten better in their numbers ( beyer, speed, late pace ) in their last few races.................a sign I like to see..................think one of them will be in the super..........

be well............

I agree with everything you say here. I have future wagers on McCraken, Gunnevera and Lookin at Lee, but agree Sonneteer is getting better with every race and will love the extra distance. Pretty wide open race as I don't see a whole lot of toss outs. Weather could be a factor. Haven't looked that closely as to which horses may like a wet track.

elevenblack301 · May 3, 2017

wabashwonders said:
I agree with everything you say here. I have future wagers on McCraken, Gunnevera and Lookin at Lee, but agree Sonneteer is getting better with every race and will love the extra distance. Pretty wide open race as I don't see a whole lot of toss outs. Weather could be a factor. Haven't looked that closely as to which horses may like a wet track.

wabash,

don't think this is good, as we like the same horses..............and sonneteer is also on my hit list..........believe sonneteer, lookin at lee and gunnevera have raced on the wet stuff and hit the board.............unless the pace is awfully slow, these three will be like a locomotive down the stretch.................

elevenblack301 · May 3, 2017

lenbo,

thanks for your input...............nice stuff.............and I love the spreadsheet.................looking forward to your selections later.............

Kaboom · May 3, 2017

LENBO said:
This might be helpful for Saturday

Wet Tomlinson Figures
This measure of a horse's ability on a wet track was the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who studied past performances of a sample of horses based on how they performed on wet tracks and their pedigrees. A wet Tomlinson score ranges from 0 to 480 (a perfect score). Experts have noted that a score of 320 warrants consideration of a horse that should perform well on an off-track. Based on my annual Derby spreadsheet, the following horses have the top wet Tomlinson figures heading into the Derby:

PP* Horse Wet ML*
Irish War Cry 443
Tapwrit 441
McCraken 435
Irap 418
Battle of Midway 417
Practical Joke 413
Royal Mo 402
State of Honor 400
Hence 398
Patch 393

*To be determined on Wednesday at 11 a.m. EDT.

Pedigree
Some of the bloodlines that are part of the current field can be traced back to horses that have solid wet track influences can be traced to sires such as Curlin, Malibu Moon and A.P. Indy.
The horses that are part of said bloodlines include Irish War Cry, Gormley, Hence and Patch. Sonneteer's sire Midnight Lute won a Breeders' Cup Sprint championship in the slop at Monmouth Park in 2007. Irish War Cry’s sire Curlin, won the Breeders' Cup Classic at a mile-and-a-quarter that same year in the slop by open lengths. Gormley’s sire Malibu Moon produced 2015 winner Orb.

Actual Off-Track Performances
Of the horses in the field, six horses have wins on an off-track: Classic Empire (maiden at 4.5F), Gormley (G3 Sham), Tapwrit ($75K stake), Hence(maiden at 8.5F), Battle of Midway (wet fast, maiden at 6F), and Royal Mo(good, maiden at 1m). Three horses have placed on off-tracks, Untrapped, Lookin at Lee and Sonneteer. Only Gormley accomplished the feat in a stakes race and Hence and Gormley at a distance greater than a mile.

Thank you for the share bro .... solid info !

ad40602 · May 3, 2017

I'm not familiar with the Horses 1st to 4th foals angle. Can someone kindly explain? Thanks, Joe

LENBO · May 3, 2017

ad40602 said:
I'm not familiar with the Horses 1st to 4th foals angle. Can someone kindly explain? Thanks, Joe

It's an angle stating that a mare's early foals are more successful than ones born later on in her breeding process.
A theory for why is that mares are bred to better stallions early in their breeding career to establish their worth.

Kaboom · May 3, 2017

I had liked Tapwrit a bit bro ...until I discovered this ...

Only 1/93 ITM spots over the last 31 years was from the Female family # 19 ..

That is Tapwrit's Female Family ... I have all the horses broke down from 1985 to 2016 ...that finished ITM ...

I still don't win all the time ....lol

Don'tCountOnIt · May 3, 2017

11black great stuff as always. Seems this years thread is quite short. Would ypu happen to have the info you posted in years past regarding RAN blood line in this year's crop? Also, John Whites strike system. Always look forward to your insight. Thanks for all you do.

Kentucky Derby 2017 - Time For Another Great Derby !

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