how do you not take value on Chavez at +500

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Granite chin, looks to be dialed in w/ his team for this fight, only been knocked down once in career at 172 vs a super legit Fonfara, always digs to the body, can rehydrate 20+ lbs after weigh-in

Canelo has never fought anyone bigger than him, never fought over 155 lbs. He's moving up two weight classes. Chavez could be 185 in the ring on Sat.

No way would I lay -600 on that guy. Can't recall the last time anyone's moved up two classes, fought someone coming down, and KO'ed him or even won decisively

chavez today:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-_nkcfXcAUpDt8.jpg
 

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Weight advantage is literally the only advantage Chavez Jr. possesses here. He simply isn't very good (only notable win is Andy Lee I suppose), and dropping that amount of weight to hit 164 could be a huge problem within itself. Canelo is strong and sturdy fighter so I struggle with the notion Chavez Jr will be able to impose himself physically, even with a 25-30lb advantage. Now if the skill sets were closer then perhaps but in this case I just don't believe Chavez Jr. has enough skills to bother Canelo.

Chavez Jr has a bad posture of attacking on the inside with his head forward hunched over. Canelo can throw an effective uppercut with both hands and I see this being a bad situation for Chavez Jr. Chavez Jr. has a very good chin but I've never seen fighters take strong uppercuts consistently without damage.

imo best bet on this card is Lemieux/Reyes u7.5 rounds around -160. Lemieux might be the strongest lb for lb puncher going right now and Reyes is tailor made for him to deliver another knockout. Lemieux doesn't move that well but Reyes is not fleet footed himself nor a defensive dynamo to offset the bombardment due his way. Two fights ago Reyes suffered his first knockout loss against a light hitting opponent. I couldn't find footage of this fight or any meaningful report but a couple quotes from Reyes himself did not refer to any injustice or injury so I think this may have been a legitimate stoppage defeat. Very ominous if this is the case. I think the line may be somewhat generous because he went 10 rounds with Chavez Jr a few years ago. But Chavez Jr. in that fight was out of shape and had a poor output, and also claimed he hurt his hand during the fight. Envisioning this fight I find it hard to believe it will last into the later stages, its a textbook showcase fight for Lemieux.
 

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