Betting guide for the 143rd Kentucky Derby
Chris Fallica Lane Gold
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
Over the years, the Derby developed a notorious reputation, not only for having the favorite lose, but also for a long shot winning the race. More recently, the Run for the Roses has become more predictable, with favorites like California Chrome and American Pharoah finishing first. That favorite streak looked likely to continue this year until the Bob Baffert-trained Mastery was injured in the spring, leaving the Kentucky Derby wide open. Two-year-old champ Classic Empire is the early betting favorite, but he had an up-and-down spring, which leaves some other horses with a good chance to cash in at good prices.
Let's look at the field:
Chris Fallica's guide to the field
1 - Lookin at Lee (Trainer: Steve Asmussen/Jockey: Corey Lanerie); Morning line: 20-1
This stone-cold closer will drop back from the inside and pass as many as he can late. He was beaten just a length and a half in Arkansas by Classic Empire. The added ground will help, but from Post 1, about the best he can hope for is a third- or fourth-place finish. And even that might be wishful thinking, as just four horses have finished in the top five after breaking from the rail since Ferdinand won from Post 1 in 1986.
2 - Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon); ML 20-1
The lack of Derby success for runners that prepped in Dubai is well-noted. Of the 11 that went from Dubai to the Derby, the best finish is fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011. No UAE Derby winner has been better than sixth in the Derby. What happens at the break with Thunder Snow is anyone's guess, but if he wins from Post 2, I lose.
3 - Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Channing Hill); ML 50-1
Supplemented into the race as a vanity entry after a shocking win in the Spiral at 25-1, he'll likely be a brief pace factor and that's it. No shot.
4 - Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.); ML 30-1
Blinkers will come off for a horse that hasn't really shown much interest in finishing the last few races, suggesting the distance of 1¼ is out of his scope. Maybe the blinks off will relax him some, but its not like he's been on the pace with them. Untrapped looks like one that will just go around the track for a midpack finish. Note that he did break maiden for fun in a 12-horse field at Churchill Downs last November, so if you want to use him third or fourth, that wouldn't be the worst idea if you have a few extra bucks to cover him.
5 - Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 5-1
One of five in the field that was winless as a 2-year-old and will try to become the first since Monarchos to win the Derby after going winless at 2. With this post draw, I don't see any way he isn't on the lead and given how headstrong he's been in the morning, I can't see him lasting 1¼ on the front end with pressure throughout.
Todd Pletcher's 1-45 mark in the Derby is well-known, but if you drill down and find Pletcher/John Velazquez entries that were among the top five betting choices -- Carpe Diem in 2015, Intense Holiday in 2014, Verrazano in 2013, Devil May Care in 2010 and Bandini in 2005 -- none finished better than 10th. This isn't Belmont, Gulfstream or Saratoga. Don't get sucked into well-known connections that haven't fared well here and whom the pace scenario doesn't likely favor. I'll pass. See you in the King's Bishop.
6 - State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano); ML 30-1
One of the most experienced horses in the field, State of Honor has only a maiden win on the synthetic sprinting at Woodbine. He looks to be one who will press Always Dreaming to ensure a fast pace -- which would help Mark Casse's other horse, the favorite Classic Empire. I can't see State of Honor hitting the board.
7 - Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith); ML 15-1
Girvin has been battling foot problems and I'm not sure how good the fields he beat at Fair Grounds were. He has the right running style but it's highly doubtful he will get a clean, easy trip as he has in New Orleans. In Mike Smith's 55th career Triple Crown mount (third all-time), you know he'll give Girvin the best chance to win, but there are too many questions about the fitness of the horse for me to get excited about him having a legit chance to win.
8 - Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux); ML 15-1
Hence was the winner of what has apparently become a key prep. His running style appears to fit what a Derby winner would look like, and he showed speed in a maiden race at Churchill Downs last year so it's not like he's a plodding closer. He has worked great leading up to the race and his bandwagon is getting full of supporters, so he will likely be closer to 10-1 than 15-1 come Saturday. Those who aren't fans will point to the lengthy gap between races, and view him as a one-race wonder. I think he fits, but also remember Steve Asmussen is 0-13 in the Derby with just two in-the-money finishes. But, to me, all indications point to a solid effort Saturday. I'll be using Hence in all spots in the trifecta, as he is on the short list of contenders.
9 - Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Gutierrez); ML 20-1
The long-shot winner of the Blue Grass as a maiden was soundly beaten by Hence in New Mexico, and may have caught a speed bias that day at Keeneland. My guess is he's just a merry-go-round type here who doesn't contest the pace, but doesn't take all the way back either. And that pegs him for a finish somewhere in the area of 11th.
10- Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano); ML 15-1
He would make the list of "great stories if he wins," given trainer Antonio Sano's past. Surprisingly, Javier Castellano hasn't hit the board from 10 Derby mounts, so while Castellano is a great rider, don't think his presence necessarily moves the horse up to elite status. Then again, maybe it's not too surprising Castellano hasn't posted an in-the-money finish in the Derby, given that he has hitched himself to Todd Pletcher's second string more often than not.
Gunnevera ran huge in the Fountain of Youth and then regressed in the Florida Derby. He'll be coming from the clouds and be at the mercy of the pace, but he should get the distance. Be warned though, all of us racing fans know that one guy who is a "mush." Well, the one I know loves Gunnevera. I'll still use him in trifectas, but I don't think he can win.
11 - Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat); ML 30-1
"He can't win, he was unraced at 2 [years old]!"
So, if he debuted on Dec. 31, 2016, as opposed to Jan. 21, that means he can win? Sorry, if he doesn't win or doesn't fire it has nothing to do with being unraced at 2. It means he just wasn't good enough or fast enough, and that the speed figures were indeed spot-on.
Despite the sentiments above, I will be using Battle of Midway prominently. He broke maiden at first asking, then went right into stakes company, where he predictably ran third. After that he ran a good race in an allowance, coming from off the pace and beating the ill-fated Reach the World. He found himself on the lead in a paceless race at Santa Anita, and I don't think Flavien Prat will have him there Saturday. He's among the classiest bred horses in the race and if he takes back, I think he has a very big opportunity to factor into the outcome of the race. I'm using Battle of Midway up and down the trifecta.
12 - Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux); ML 50-1
I know he's a maiden, but if you like Classic Empire, don't you have to like Sonneteer at roughly 10 or 12 times the price? He was beaten just 2 lengths by Classic Empire in Arkansas, and now gets added ground. I'm not saying he can win, but I do think he's worth using in third and fourth as a one-run-type closer.
13 - J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Luis Saez); ML 20-1
Dale Romans horses at double-digit prices are always worth using. He's had nine horses crack the tri in Triple Crown races -- eight were at least 12-1, five were at least 15-1 and three were at least 20-1. J Boys Echo is also just one of three in the field to have cracked 100 on the Beyer scale and he has dramatically longer odds than Classic Empire or Irish War Cry. His Blue Grass was so bad I'm just throwing that race completely out (for all runners), and I expect J Boys Echo to run down as many as he can late. He ran a very good second in his debut at Churchill Downs, which is a huge plus. I don't know if he can win, but I may throw him in the win spot in some of my wider pick-fours and trifectas. And I will totally use him for second and third.
14 - Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux); ML 4-1
The morning-line favorite hasn't had the smoothest of journeys to this point. He will likely be one of the softest favorites ever, but his success as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs, along with his closing rush to win the Arkansas Derby, will certainly garner him many supporters. I will not be one of them. In Arkansas, he basically had to "reach the bottom" to barely get past Conquest Mo Money, who balked at the start and then cut out all the fractions. And the Beyer figure still came up only 94.
Hence had a much easier time dispelling Conquest Mo Money at Sunland, and his figure was better too. The Daily Racing Form had a great number on trainer Mark Casse and his lack of success winning 3-year-old graded stakes on dirt.
Jockey Julien Leparoux hasn't had the best of luck in the Derby either. He was on favorite Dialed In in 2011 and finished eighth. Then he had a brutal go of it on second choice (and eventual Belmont winner) Union Rags in 2012, finishing seventh. While I think he could hit the board, I have this nagging feeling he will regress. Will the favorite really win for a fifth straight year (which would be unprecedented)? I'll be taking an "if he wins, I lose" approach here.
15 - McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.); ML 5-1
McCraken's morning line of 5-1 is laughably short given his poor showing in the Blue Grass and the fact he too was laid up a bit. My guess is his 3-for-3 mark at Churchill Downs and his win at Tampa had a lot more to do with that morning line, since McCraken had already secured his spot in the Derby field by the Blue Grass and trainer Ian Wilkes could have simply used the race as a true prep for the Derby. That said, who knows what was truly behind him in the Tampa Stakes race, and his earlier Churchill Downs races as well? I just never got the sense I was seeing a Derby winner when watching him run. If you like him, you're getting a terrible price -- he should be much closer to 15-1. I'm torn on what to do with him as I don't think he can win, but it wouldn't completely shock me if he does.
16 - Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz); ML 20-1
Can I make a future wager on Tapwrit in the Belmont? Because Todd Pletcher in the Derby ... no thanks. Since 2007, Pletcher has run 31 horses in the Derby. With Calvin Borel up, he's 2-2 in the money, including his only win with Super Saver. With all other jockeys, he's 1-29 ITM. I don't see Churchill specialist Calvin Borel anywhere on the card.
Tapwrit is not as bad as the Blue Grass made him out to be -- and I think he has a chance to outrun his odds with an outside stalking trip. He has looked good leading up to this weekend as well. I won't use him on top, but will use him underneath, as not using Pletcher's Revolutionary in 2013 cost me a nice exotics score (when Orb was my top pick).
17 - Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh); ML 6-1
Irish War Cry has won at three different tracks, appears to have no distance limitations and is comfortably drawn outside. Of all the horses with single-digit odds, he is the one I'm most confident will run his race. Forget about the whole "but nobody has ever won from Post 17" theory, a line of thinking that brought you since-debunked myths like "Big Brown can't win from Post 20" in 2008 and "I'll Have Another can't win from Post 19 " in 2012. So if Irish War Cry drew Post 16 or 18, that would be the thing that seals the deal?
He has shown rating ability, and has won from the front end and from well off the pace. He's the only runner with two triple-digit Beyers. The only knocks against him would be his no-show in the Fountain of Youth, and the fact the Wood Memorial hasn't been the best of preps lately. There's a whole lot to like here, including extremely easy connections to root for.
18 - Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza); ML 15-1
His figures are light, but Gormley is 4-for-6 with multiple Grade I wins, has a jockey who has won five of the past nine Triple Crown races, and an owner-trainer combo that has already won the Derby with a huge price (Giacomo in 2005). Gormley is proven in the mud and has won from off the pace and on the lead.
I think he's a huge player from the outside and for those worried about his low figures or his poor time at the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist didn't have a great route figure last year prior to the Derby. Neither did I'll Have Another or Giacomo. Remember, Gormley was the 5-1 second choice in the BC Juvenile (Classic Empire was 9-2). He's on my short list of potential winners.
19 - Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario); ML 20-1
He's been best in one-turn miles, and hasn't quite shown great finishing ability in the Fountain of Youth or the Blue Grass. A handicapper I respect really likes his chances here, but I can't see him winning and would also be surprised if he factored in the trifecta. Practical Joke has the right running style, but I just don't think he's good enough or wants to go this far.
20 - Patch (Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione); ML 30-1
The public loves a good underdog story, so the one-eyed Patch will probably get bet down by the tourists. Like Tapwrit and Always Dreaming, he will probably go on and have a very productive year, as he has raced only three times and was a respectable second to Girvin in Louisiana. I would anticipate him trying to avoid getting fanned seven-wide around the first turn, and trying to pick off as many as he can late. He'll finish somewhere in the top eight or so.
Fallica's picks
1 - (17) Irish War Cry
2 - (8) Hence
3 - (11) Battle of Midway
4 - (18) Gormley
Fallica's potential ways to play the race
$2 WPS 8-11-17-18 ($24)
$1 exacta box: 8-11-17-18 ($12)
$1 exacta box: 8-11-13-14-17-18 ($30)
$1 tri 17 with 8-11-13-18 with 8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-18-19 ($36)
$1 tri 8-11-13-18 with 17 with 8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-18-19 ($36)
Lane Gold's value picks
Just a few weeks ago, there was a great deal of uncertainty if this colt was going to be in the Derby after his inexplicably bad race in the Fountain of Youth. Those doubts were put to rest last month, when he won the Wood Memorial in New York.
It was a bit surprising to see Irish War Cry at a solid price of 6-1, but there is no question that a bad race in March has left people uncertain about him. The chestnut colt became a top contender when he knocked off Classic Empire in February, and is one of the only horses in the field to run multiple triple-digit Beyer speed figures.
The caution for him is to not be a part of the early speed. It doesn't look like there's a tremendous amount of front-running speed, but it is hard to win the Derby when you are one of the horses near the front early on. Of course, the 17 post position isn't perfect (and has never won the Derby) but it is better than being stuck inside.
He's trained by Graham Motion, who won the Derby back in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, and that experience is invaluable in a race like the Derby. His price should not be any lower than 5-1.
Girvin (No. 7 PP, 15-1 ML)
He was one of the top Derby contenders with an impressive three wins in four starts, and a win in the Louisiana Derby. In fact, he's a perfect 3-for-3 on dirt. But the discovery of a quarter crack in one of his feet has caused a lot of the pundits to back off.
The injury certainly is one to be concerned about, but it's not an uncommon ailment in racing. The injury has been treated and trainer Joe Sharp is confident the colt will run well in the Derby.
His speed figures at first glance aren't very fast, but it's hard to argue his accomplishments, including winning the two major Derby prep races in Louisiana.
One advantage that Girvin has is his ability to be in the "second pack" of the race, which should put him in a prime position as the field heads around the far turn. And the fact that he is 15-1 in the morning line makes him worth pursuing. The price will definitely be right.
Gormley (No. 18 PP, 15-1 ML)
Over the past few years, Southern California has produced many Derby winners including American Pharoah, California Chrome and Nyquist. This year, Gormley is the best horse to emerge from the West Coast and is flying under the radar.
Much like Girvin, he did not put up impressive speed figures, but he managed to win two of the three prep races at Santa Anita including the last one, the Santa Anita Derby. He has won four of six starts, with the losses to Classic Empire and Mastery.
It also won't be the first time that his trainer came into the Derby with a long shot. John Shirreffs brought Giacomo to Louisville in 2005 and pulled off a shocker, so he certainly knows what it takes to win this race.
His post position is not optimal (1-for-30) but he has the benefit of being paired with jockey Victor Espinoza, who won the Derby three times including aboard American Pharoah. If he doesn't get floated out too far on the first turn, he could be dangerous. Plus, if the track is sloppy, that's a big plus.
Gunnevera (No. 10 PP, 15-1 ML)
With a field as big as the Kentucky Derby, some years the race "falls apart" and a horse from the back of field is able to thread his way to the front and pull of the upset. This could be that horse.
He burst onto the Derby scene when he ran second to Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull and in the process, beat Classic Empire. He followed that up with a last-to-first win in the Fountain of Youth, which is the kind of run he would need to be a threat in the Derby.
Another big plus for the chestnut colt is he keeps jockey Javier Castellano, who has been one of the top riders in North America over the past few years. Post No. 10 is tied for the most wins in the Derby with nine. As long as he is 12-1 or better, Gunnevera is a solid play.
Battle of Midway (No. 11 PP, 30-1 ML
He nearly beat Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, and with the huge price this colt will bring on Derby Day, he's worth a look.
The colt is starting to come into his own and the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has brought him from Southern California is an indication that he thinks the colt has a chance. The son of Smart Strike has won two of four, with his best race a few weeks ago in the narrow loss at Santa Anita.
The key for him is not getting into a speed duel. His price needs to be long to be worth a play.
Gold's potential ways to play the race
Play No. 17 Irish War Cry to win.
For your exacta wagers play (No. 17) Irish War Cry and (No. 15) McCraken (as a hedge) on top of (No. 7) Girvin, (No. 18) Gormley, (No. 10) Gunnevera and (No. 11) Battle of Midway. Also use Girvin, Gormley and Gunnevera on top of Irish War Cry, McCraken and Battle of Midway in another set of exactas. (Note: I threw McCraken as a hedge on top even though he won't offer as much value, but I think he has a shot to win.)
Chris Fallica Lane Gold
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
Over the years, the Derby developed a notorious reputation, not only for having the favorite lose, but also for a long shot winning the race. More recently, the Run for the Roses has become more predictable, with favorites like California Chrome and American Pharoah finishing first. That favorite streak looked likely to continue this year until the Bob Baffert-trained Mastery was injured in the spring, leaving the Kentucky Derby wide open. Two-year-old champ Classic Empire is the early betting favorite, but he had an up-and-down spring, which leaves some other horses with a good chance to cash in at good prices.
Let's look at the field:
Chris Fallica's guide to the field
1 - Lookin at Lee (Trainer: Steve Asmussen/Jockey: Corey Lanerie); Morning line: 20-1
This stone-cold closer will drop back from the inside and pass as many as he can late. He was beaten just a length and a half in Arkansas by Classic Empire. The added ground will help, but from Post 1, about the best he can hope for is a third- or fourth-place finish. And even that might be wishful thinking, as just four horses have finished in the top five after breaking from the rail since Ferdinand won from Post 1 in 1986.
2 - Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon); ML 20-1
The lack of Derby success for runners that prepped in Dubai is well-noted. Of the 11 that went from Dubai to the Derby, the best finish is fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011. No UAE Derby winner has been better than sixth in the Derby. What happens at the break with Thunder Snow is anyone's guess, but if he wins from Post 2, I lose.
3 - Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Channing Hill); ML 50-1
Supplemented into the race as a vanity entry after a shocking win in the Spiral at 25-1, he'll likely be a brief pace factor and that's it. No shot.
4 - Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.); ML 30-1
Blinkers will come off for a horse that hasn't really shown much interest in finishing the last few races, suggesting the distance of 1¼ is out of his scope. Maybe the blinks off will relax him some, but its not like he's been on the pace with them. Untrapped looks like one that will just go around the track for a midpack finish. Note that he did break maiden for fun in a 12-horse field at Churchill Downs last November, so if you want to use him third or fourth, that wouldn't be the worst idea if you have a few extra bucks to cover him.
5 - Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 5-1
One of five in the field that was winless as a 2-year-old and will try to become the first since Monarchos to win the Derby after going winless at 2. With this post draw, I don't see any way he isn't on the lead and given how headstrong he's been in the morning, I can't see him lasting 1¼ on the front end with pressure throughout.
Todd Pletcher's 1-45 mark in the Derby is well-known, but if you drill down and find Pletcher/John Velazquez entries that were among the top five betting choices -- Carpe Diem in 2015, Intense Holiday in 2014, Verrazano in 2013, Devil May Care in 2010 and Bandini in 2005 -- none finished better than 10th. This isn't Belmont, Gulfstream or Saratoga. Don't get sucked into well-known connections that haven't fared well here and whom the pace scenario doesn't likely favor. I'll pass. See you in the King's Bishop.
6 - State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano); ML 30-1
One of the most experienced horses in the field, State of Honor has only a maiden win on the synthetic sprinting at Woodbine. He looks to be one who will press Always Dreaming to ensure a fast pace -- which would help Mark Casse's other horse, the favorite Classic Empire. I can't see State of Honor hitting the board.
7 - Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith); ML 15-1
Girvin has been battling foot problems and I'm not sure how good the fields he beat at Fair Grounds were. He has the right running style but it's highly doubtful he will get a clean, easy trip as he has in New Orleans. In Mike Smith's 55th career Triple Crown mount (third all-time), you know he'll give Girvin the best chance to win, but there are too many questions about the fitness of the horse for me to get excited about him having a legit chance to win.
8 - Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux); ML 15-1
Hence was the winner of what has apparently become a key prep. His running style appears to fit what a Derby winner would look like, and he showed speed in a maiden race at Churchill Downs last year so it's not like he's a plodding closer. He has worked great leading up to the race and his bandwagon is getting full of supporters, so he will likely be closer to 10-1 than 15-1 come Saturday. Those who aren't fans will point to the lengthy gap between races, and view him as a one-race wonder. I think he fits, but also remember Steve Asmussen is 0-13 in the Derby with just two in-the-money finishes. But, to me, all indications point to a solid effort Saturday. I'll be using Hence in all spots in the trifecta, as he is on the short list of contenders.
9 - Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Gutierrez); ML 20-1
The long-shot winner of the Blue Grass as a maiden was soundly beaten by Hence in New Mexico, and may have caught a speed bias that day at Keeneland. My guess is he's just a merry-go-round type here who doesn't contest the pace, but doesn't take all the way back either. And that pegs him for a finish somewhere in the area of 11th.
10- Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano); ML 15-1
He would make the list of "great stories if he wins," given trainer Antonio Sano's past. Surprisingly, Javier Castellano hasn't hit the board from 10 Derby mounts, so while Castellano is a great rider, don't think his presence necessarily moves the horse up to elite status. Then again, maybe it's not too surprising Castellano hasn't posted an in-the-money finish in the Derby, given that he has hitched himself to Todd Pletcher's second string more often than not.
Gunnevera ran huge in the Fountain of Youth and then regressed in the Florida Derby. He'll be coming from the clouds and be at the mercy of the pace, but he should get the distance. Be warned though, all of us racing fans know that one guy who is a "mush." Well, the one I know loves Gunnevera. I'll still use him in trifectas, but I don't think he can win.
11 - Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat); ML 30-1
"He can't win, he was unraced at 2 [years old]!"
So, if he debuted on Dec. 31, 2016, as opposed to Jan. 21, that means he can win? Sorry, if he doesn't win or doesn't fire it has nothing to do with being unraced at 2. It means he just wasn't good enough or fast enough, and that the speed figures were indeed spot-on.
Despite the sentiments above, I will be using Battle of Midway prominently. He broke maiden at first asking, then went right into stakes company, where he predictably ran third. After that he ran a good race in an allowance, coming from off the pace and beating the ill-fated Reach the World. He found himself on the lead in a paceless race at Santa Anita, and I don't think Flavien Prat will have him there Saturday. He's among the classiest bred horses in the race and if he takes back, I think he has a very big opportunity to factor into the outcome of the race. I'm using Battle of Midway up and down the trifecta.
12 - Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux); ML 50-1
I know he's a maiden, but if you like Classic Empire, don't you have to like Sonneteer at roughly 10 or 12 times the price? He was beaten just 2 lengths by Classic Empire in Arkansas, and now gets added ground. I'm not saying he can win, but I do think he's worth using in third and fourth as a one-run-type closer.
13 - J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Luis Saez); ML 20-1
Dale Romans horses at double-digit prices are always worth using. He's had nine horses crack the tri in Triple Crown races -- eight were at least 12-1, five were at least 15-1 and three were at least 20-1. J Boys Echo is also just one of three in the field to have cracked 100 on the Beyer scale and he has dramatically longer odds than Classic Empire or Irish War Cry. His Blue Grass was so bad I'm just throwing that race completely out (for all runners), and I expect J Boys Echo to run down as many as he can late. He ran a very good second in his debut at Churchill Downs, which is a huge plus. I don't know if he can win, but I may throw him in the win spot in some of my wider pick-fours and trifectas. And I will totally use him for second and third.
14 - Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux); ML 4-1
The morning-line favorite hasn't had the smoothest of journeys to this point. He will likely be one of the softest favorites ever, but his success as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs, along with his closing rush to win the Arkansas Derby, will certainly garner him many supporters. I will not be one of them. In Arkansas, he basically had to "reach the bottom" to barely get past Conquest Mo Money, who balked at the start and then cut out all the fractions. And the Beyer figure still came up only 94.
Hence had a much easier time dispelling Conquest Mo Money at Sunland, and his figure was better too. The Daily Racing Form had a great number on trainer Mark Casse and his lack of success winning 3-year-old graded stakes on dirt.
Jockey Julien Leparoux hasn't had the best of luck in the Derby either. He was on favorite Dialed In in 2011 and finished eighth. Then he had a brutal go of it on second choice (and eventual Belmont winner) Union Rags in 2012, finishing seventh. While I think he could hit the board, I have this nagging feeling he will regress. Will the favorite really win for a fifth straight year (which would be unprecedented)? I'll be taking an "if he wins, I lose" approach here.
15 - McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.); ML 5-1
McCraken's morning line of 5-1 is laughably short given his poor showing in the Blue Grass and the fact he too was laid up a bit. My guess is his 3-for-3 mark at Churchill Downs and his win at Tampa had a lot more to do with that morning line, since McCraken had already secured his spot in the Derby field by the Blue Grass and trainer Ian Wilkes could have simply used the race as a true prep for the Derby. That said, who knows what was truly behind him in the Tampa Stakes race, and his earlier Churchill Downs races as well? I just never got the sense I was seeing a Derby winner when watching him run. If you like him, you're getting a terrible price -- he should be much closer to 15-1. I'm torn on what to do with him as I don't think he can win, but it wouldn't completely shock me if he does.
16 - Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz); ML 20-1
Can I make a future wager on Tapwrit in the Belmont? Because Todd Pletcher in the Derby ... no thanks. Since 2007, Pletcher has run 31 horses in the Derby. With Calvin Borel up, he's 2-2 in the money, including his only win with Super Saver. With all other jockeys, he's 1-29 ITM. I don't see Churchill specialist Calvin Borel anywhere on the card.
Tapwrit is not as bad as the Blue Grass made him out to be -- and I think he has a chance to outrun his odds with an outside stalking trip. He has looked good leading up to this weekend as well. I won't use him on top, but will use him underneath, as not using Pletcher's Revolutionary in 2013 cost me a nice exotics score (when Orb was my top pick).
17 - Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh); ML 6-1
Irish War Cry has won at three different tracks, appears to have no distance limitations and is comfortably drawn outside. Of all the horses with single-digit odds, he is the one I'm most confident will run his race. Forget about the whole "but nobody has ever won from Post 17" theory, a line of thinking that brought you since-debunked myths like "Big Brown can't win from Post 20" in 2008 and "I'll Have Another can't win from Post 19 " in 2012. So if Irish War Cry drew Post 16 or 18, that would be the thing that seals the deal?
He has shown rating ability, and has won from the front end and from well off the pace. He's the only runner with two triple-digit Beyers. The only knocks against him would be his no-show in the Fountain of Youth, and the fact the Wood Memorial hasn't been the best of preps lately. There's a whole lot to like here, including extremely easy connections to root for.
18 - Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza); ML 15-1
His figures are light, but Gormley is 4-for-6 with multiple Grade I wins, has a jockey who has won five of the past nine Triple Crown races, and an owner-trainer combo that has already won the Derby with a huge price (Giacomo in 2005). Gormley is proven in the mud and has won from off the pace and on the lead.
I think he's a huge player from the outside and for those worried about his low figures or his poor time at the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist didn't have a great route figure last year prior to the Derby. Neither did I'll Have Another or Giacomo. Remember, Gormley was the 5-1 second choice in the BC Juvenile (Classic Empire was 9-2). He's on my short list of potential winners.
19 - Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario); ML 20-1
He's been best in one-turn miles, and hasn't quite shown great finishing ability in the Fountain of Youth or the Blue Grass. A handicapper I respect really likes his chances here, but I can't see him winning and would also be surprised if he factored in the trifecta. Practical Joke has the right running style, but I just don't think he's good enough or wants to go this far.
20 - Patch (Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione); ML 30-1
The public loves a good underdog story, so the one-eyed Patch will probably get bet down by the tourists. Like Tapwrit and Always Dreaming, he will probably go on and have a very productive year, as he has raced only three times and was a respectable second to Girvin in Louisiana. I would anticipate him trying to avoid getting fanned seven-wide around the first turn, and trying to pick off as many as he can late. He'll finish somewhere in the top eight or so.
Fallica's picks
1 - (17) Irish War Cry
2 - (8) Hence
3 - (11) Battle of Midway
4 - (18) Gormley
Fallica's potential ways to play the race
$2 WPS 8-11-17-18 ($24)
$1 exacta box: 8-11-17-18 ($12)
$1 exacta box: 8-11-13-14-17-18 ($30)
$1 tri 17 with 8-11-13-18 with 8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-18-19 ($36)
$1 tri 8-11-13-18 with 17 with 8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-18-19 ($36)
Lane Gold's value picks
Just a few weeks ago, there was a great deal of uncertainty if this colt was going to be in the Derby after his inexplicably bad race in the Fountain of Youth. Those doubts were put to rest last month, when he won the Wood Memorial in New York.
It was a bit surprising to see Irish War Cry at a solid price of 6-1, but there is no question that a bad race in March has left people uncertain about him. The chestnut colt became a top contender when he knocked off Classic Empire in February, and is one of the only horses in the field to run multiple triple-digit Beyer speed figures.
The caution for him is to not be a part of the early speed. It doesn't look like there's a tremendous amount of front-running speed, but it is hard to win the Derby when you are one of the horses near the front early on. Of course, the 17 post position isn't perfect (and has never won the Derby) but it is better than being stuck inside.
He's trained by Graham Motion, who won the Derby back in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, and that experience is invaluable in a race like the Derby. His price should not be any lower than 5-1.
Girvin (No. 7 PP, 15-1 ML)
He was one of the top Derby contenders with an impressive three wins in four starts, and a win in the Louisiana Derby. In fact, he's a perfect 3-for-3 on dirt. But the discovery of a quarter crack in one of his feet has caused a lot of the pundits to back off.
The injury certainly is one to be concerned about, but it's not an uncommon ailment in racing. The injury has been treated and trainer Joe Sharp is confident the colt will run well in the Derby.
His speed figures at first glance aren't very fast, but it's hard to argue his accomplishments, including winning the two major Derby prep races in Louisiana.
One advantage that Girvin has is his ability to be in the "second pack" of the race, which should put him in a prime position as the field heads around the far turn. And the fact that he is 15-1 in the morning line makes him worth pursuing. The price will definitely be right.
Gormley (No. 18 PP, 15-1 ML)
Over the past few years, Southern California has produced many Derby winners including American Pharoah, California Chrome and Nyquist. This year, Gormley is the best horse to emerge from the West Coast and is flying under the radar.
Much like Girvin, he did not put up impressive speed figures, but he managed to win two of the three prep races at Santa Anita including the last one, the Santa Anita Derby. He has won four of six starts, with the losses to Classic Empire and Mastery.
It also won't be the first time that his trainer came into the Derby with a long shot. John Shirreffs brought Giacomo to Louisville in 2005 and pulled off a shocker, so he certainly knows what it takes to win this race.
His post position is not optimal (1-for-30) but he has the benefit of being paired with jockey Victor Espinoza, who won the Derby three times including aboard American Pharoah. If he doesn't get floated out too far on the first turn, he could be dangerous. Plus, if the track is sloppy, that's a big plus.
Gunnevera (No. 10 PP, 15-1 ML)
With a field as big as the Kentucky Derby, some years the race "falls apart" and a horse from the back of field is able to thread his way to the front and pull of the upset. This could be that horse.
He burst onto the Derby scene when he ran second to Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull and in the process, beat Classic Empire. He followed that up with a last-to-first win in the Fountain of Youth, which is the kind of run he would need to be a threat in the Derby.
Another big plus for the chestnut colt is he keeps jockey Javier Castellano, who has been one of the top riders in North America over the past few years. Post No. 10 is tied for the most wins in the Derby with nine. As long as he is 12-1 or better, Gunnevera is a solid play.
Battle of Midway (No. 11 PP, 30-1 ML
He nearly beat Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, and with the huge price this colt will bring on Derby Day, he's worth a look.
The colt is starting to come into his own and the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has brought him from Southern California is an indication that he thinks the colt has a chance. The son of Smart Strike has won two of four, with his best race a few weeks ago in the narrow loss at Santa Anita.
The key for him is not getting into a speed duel. His price needs to be long to be worth a play.
Gold's potential ways to play the race
Play No. 17 Irish War Cry to win.
For your exacta wagers play (No. 17) Irish War Cry and (No. 15) McCraken (as a hedge) on top of (No. 7) Girvin, (No. 18) Gormley, (No. 10) Gunnevera and (No. 11) Battle of Midway. Also use Girvin, Gormley and Gunnevera on top of Irish War Cry, McCraken and Battle of Midway in another set of exactas. (Note: I threw McCraken as a hedge on top even though he won't offer as much value, but I think he has a shot to win.)
