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Thread: Who are the value teams in the 2017-2018 SB market....

  1. #1 Who are the value teams in the 2017-2018 SB market.... 
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    Last year my main futures plays were Atl 66/1, Oak 40/1 and Hou 40/1....I still haven't quite recovered from the 4th qtr meltdown by ATL but the best still made me money by being to leverage.....so, time to put that in the past and move on to finding the value this up coming season....listed below are just some initial thoughts and questions to get us kick started on finding the value.

    Atlanta Falcons 15/1 hearing their name still gives me shivers but the bottom line is they should still be an extremely high octane offense and their defense may infact improve, provided they bear no massive mental scars from that melt downand in fact learn from it they can be a seriously dominant team again, their price is tempting.

    New York Giants 25/1 this is an interesting price because I thoughtwith the run they got on last year and the pick-up of Marshall they would be abit shorter than 25’s, I think they have a shot at having a really wellbalanced team that can on any given day beat you with its talent on either sideof the ball….provided of course this Manning business isn’t a massive distractionor result in a suspension.

    Oakland Raiders 20/1 I thought if Carr stayed healthy theyhad as good a shot as anyone to beat NE last season, there’s every reason tothink they’ll continue to improve and I expect their D to be better thisseason, my biggest question mark on them is can you win the whole thing with agood chunk of your fan base disenfranchised, will the Oak fans still give thema home field advantage or will they stop turning up or worse still turn on theteam?? If there wasn’t the franchise moving distraction I would automaticallymake them my number 1 play at 20/1 but I do have a few concerns, interested tohear people’s thoughts on how they think that will play out.

    Houston Texans 33/1 This defense should be fearful thisseason, it will keep them in most games…so the big question is can eitherSavage or Watson (draftee) become a reliable QB—in fact better than reliable iswhat is required these days, so can either of these guys be good enough to putpoints on the board and give the D a rest…we know Osweiler sure isn’t that guy,I haven’t seen enough of Savage to make a definitive call on him, others mayhave some more insight on his capabilities.

    Could a team like the Titans 60/1 make a sudden surgeupwards like the Falcons did??

    Anyone else spot any early value among any of the otherteams prices?


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  2. #2  
    Don't jinx me Mobdeeper7239's Avatar
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    Giants are getting better and better. D line is huge now. If they can find a way to run the ball consistently they will be a problem. You usually do very well with these pre season long shots. GL to you this season
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mobdeeper7239 View Post
    Giants are getting better and better. D line is huge now. If they can find a way to run the ball consistently they will be a problem. You usually do very well with these pre season long shots. GL to you this season
    cheers bud, always keen to take on board the thoughts of informed NFL cappers such as yourself....yeah I've hit some good futures bets on the NFL nailing Saints at 25/1 in '09, NYG 25/1 a few years back and heart breakingly close with the Falcons last year.
    My initial instincts are as mentioned above that NYG will be a serious team, like you say if they get run game they'll be close to complete
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    Oakland Raiders 20/1 I thought if Carr stayed healthy theyhad as good a shot as anyone to beat NE last season, there’s every reason tothink they’ll continue to improve and I expect their D to be better thisseason, my biggest question mark on them is can you win the whole thing with agood chunk of your fan base disenfranchised, will the Oak fans still give thema home field advantage or will they stop turning up or worse still turn on theteam?? If there wasn’t the franchise moving distraction I would automaticallymake them my number 1 play at 20/1 but I do have a few concerns, interested tohear people’s thoughts on how they think that will play out.
    Doesn't help that they gave up a home game vs NE to play in Mexico.
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    Detroit at 70/1 is worth a shot.
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    I really like Dallas but of your listed teams; I like Oakland a lot. Fan base will rally around them as the Cleveland fans did for their team when they were leaving; they didn't turn on the Browns and the Raiders will get huge support still.

    One thing with Oakland to watch right now is Carr's contract situation. They need to get it done (long term extension like Luck's is rumored) prior to the season so that isnt looming over his head this season. If it is, I expect it to affect his play somewhat.
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  7. #7  
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    I wouldn't trust Dallas with the shakeup of the offensive line. Moving Collins to RT could be a big issue, his pass blocking will likely be a liability. Also leaves the opening at LG where I think a rookie is currently projected to start. If they lose the ability to dominantly run the ball and control clock their defense will get destroyed. A big part of Dallas success on defense was because of the offense.
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  8. #8  
    RX Senior PoundFoolish's Avatar
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    I am only good at wagering on MLB. I win. Whenever I would try football, basketball etc, I would lose. But I do play some futures when I see perceived value. Last year I went in pretty heavy on Raiders to win SB. Did not hit of course, but I am + money on futures in the NFL. This year I am going in heavy on Raiders again but adding a 2nd play and going light on the Buccaneers. Good Luck.
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoundFoolish View Post
    I am only good at wagering on MLB. I win. Whenever I would try football, basketball etc, I would lose. But I do play some futures when I see perceived value. Last year I went in pretty heavy on Raiders to win SB. Did not hit of course, but I am + money on futures in the NFL. This year I am going in heavy on Raiders again but adding a 2nd play and going light on the Buccaneers. Good Luck.
    The 2 i am getting fairly bullish about are the Raiders and the Falcons, neither have lost much and both are generally speaking pretty young with lots of improvement to come from so many of their stars, can get 18/1 Oak and 15/1 Atl both seem value to me...25/1 Giants i am still def considering from a value perspective although their division is always tough.....it wouldn't shock me if either the Titans or Chargers both 60/1 end up in the playoffs, Ten are in a weak div and seem on the rise, Chargers have been cursed by injuries for years but have loads of talent
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    If I was trying to find a similar team to the Falcons from last year I'd probably go with the Dolphins. I also agree with the guy who said the Bucs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoolBreeze22 View Post
    If I was trying to find a similar team to the Falcons from last year I'd probably go with the Dolphins. I also agree with the guy who said the Bucs.
    I think the Titans at 50/1 can do similar to the Falcons last year, they have the pieces t be ealy good and play in a weak division....closed the season off well until QB injured....the Chargers will do a lot better than their 66/1 price suggests
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoolBreeze22 View Post
    If I was trying to find a similar team to the Falcons from last year I'd probably go with the Dolphins. I also agree with the guy who said the Bucs.
    I'm a Dolphins fan but i don't think they are that good, i thought their record might have flattered them a little last year...plus trying to win that division means beating you know who
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    Don't jinx me Mobdeeper7239's Avatar
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    I'm starting to think Gmens downfall will be the fact they can't run the ball. On their super bowl runs the run game and defense was the recipe. Without it, he is relying too much on overrated WR's. Even though I like Brandon Marshall some. But I think it is too in store for them to win it, so most likely they wont. I would say bounce back for Carolina, but heard Kelvin Benjamin blew up to to 260+ pounds after knee surgery. That NFC South this year will be a coin toss imo. None of those teams will run away with it like in recent years. Tampa Bay will be right there with a chance to make the playoffs.
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mobdeeper7239 View Post
    I'm starting to think Gmens downfall will be the fact they can't run the ball. On their super bowl runs the run game and defense was the recipe. Without it, he is relying too much on overrated WR's. Even though I like Brandon Marshall some. But I think it is too in store for them to win it, so most likely they wont. I would say bounce back for Carolina, but heard Kelvin Benjamin blew up to to 260+ pounds after knee surgery. That NFC South this year will be a coin toss imo. None of those teams will run away with it like in recent years. Tampa Bay will be right there with a chance to make the playoffs.
    Yes this is my primary concern with NYG, the problem if they don't have a run game is Eli has enough games where he stinks it up and dead set gets you beat if he has to do it all himself--even though at his best he's elite....the D looks good but the run game is a worry.
    How you feel about Ten 50/1 and Oak 18/1? I think both are over their true odds especially the Titans.

    Re NFC South i differ a little i think ATL will be the clear best team, they can improve plus they were actually a bit unlucky in some close games, i could see 12-4, 13-3 for them
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  15. #15  
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    For what it's worth, I agree about the Giants. I think their O line will be improved, but I don't trust any of the guys running behind it. I like the value with Oakland. After NE, I think the AFC is wide open, which could provide some real value.
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  16. #16  
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    Gonna have to see how much outs will take
    before it moves.
    At this price, keep Pounding it!!!
    GL


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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by billbeater View Post
    Pats +300

    Gonna have to see how much outs will take
    before it moves.
    At this price, keep Pounding it!!!
    GL


    this far out there is no way NE are value at that price, i a not saying they won't win it but there are so many things that can go wrong taking such a short price so far out
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by billbeater View Post
    Pats +300

    Gonna have to see how much outs will take
    before it moves.
    At this price, keep Pounding it!!!
    GL


    I dont see a repeat. Pats would have had their hands full if Carr didnt break a leg.
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  19. #19  
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    I’ve settled on my early futures SB plays….decent sizedwagers on Falcons 15/1, Raiders 18/1 and Titans 50/1….smaller wager Chargers66/1….would have made NYG a play if I trusted them to be able to run the ballso they don’t have to lean on Eli to win every week (he just has too many badmoments when he has to do it all) will keep an eye on them.

    I think the following teams represent bad value and areunder the odds: Dal, GB, NE, Pit, Den, KC….I especially don’t like the odds onGB or Pit, obviously NE can win again but from a value perspective their priceis awful this far out, too many things can go wrong.
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  20. #20  
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    Like the 3 AFC shots. A healthy Raiders team is a tough matchup for Patriots. Titans and Chargers have very little shot at a ring in '18 but present decent hedging opportunities if they make playoffs.

    Atlanta will struggle to make playoffs this year. Ryan had the season of his life and will regress back to being what he really is...an above average qb. This team will not recover from getting their shit pushed in last Feb. At 15/1 I can see why you took it but I think they are a mentally weak team who blew their one chance at a title.
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  21. #21  
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    IMO, Raiders are fools gold this year. Raiders point differential last year was plus 31, the lowest of any team with 12 wins since 02. 9-2 in games decided by less than 8 points. The numbers suggest a 9 win team tops. They were plus 16 in turnovers, even with a bottom 10 defense. After their bye, they have New England, Denver, and NYG at home followed by a trip to KC, home to Dallas, trips to Philly then San Diego.
    I would not be shocked if they miss the playoffs. BOL W/G. Just my 2 cents bro.
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  22. #22  
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    You make some fair points bobby jones and it bothers me alittle that vegas puts up a relatively modest number like 9.5 and its clearlypopular with the public…however I think the x factor here that is hard toquantify with numbers is the natural improvement/organic growth I feel thisgroup has….to me they are trending upwards—but I agree they’re not abullet-proof pick.
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  23. #23  
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    Like the Titans to overachieve.
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