[h=1]Betting guide for the 142nd Preakness Stakes[/h]Chris FallicaLane Gold
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
If you were looking to make a big score in the Triple Crown, that opportunity has come and gone, as the Kentucky Derby again yielded some large payoffs despite the favorite winning yet again.
The Preakness has been relatively predictable over the past few years, as the first or second betting choices have won 14 of the 16 renewals, including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. But what has made the Preakness an attractive race to bet is the fact that long shots have been able to run second.
Always Dreaming is undoubtedly the horse to beat on Saturday. His Derby victory was impressive and marked his fourth straight triumph, all since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher's barn last year. But to turn around in two weeks and duplicate that effort is far from a sure thing.
Let's look at the field:
[h=2]Chris Fallica's guide to the field[/h][h=3]1. Multiplier (Trainer: Brendan Walsh, jockey: Joel Rosario); morning line: 30-1[/h]The Illinois Derby winner has improved each race, and his running style suggests he could pick up a minor share. Connections often outrun their odds, but I think a win here could be asking too much; third or fourth wouldn't be out of the question. He certainly shouldn't have as long odds as Term of Art or Senior Investment.
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[h=3]2. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano); ML 12-1[/h]He's only raced three times and skipped the Derby after being beaten seven lengths by Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial Stakes. The last horse to win the Preakness after not running the first weekend in May -- Oaks or Derby -- was Bernardini in 2006, and Bernardini was a special horse. Side note: Javier Castellano, who is on Cloud Computing, rode Bernardini in that Preakness win. Cloud Computing certainly looks the part and has picked up his fair share of supporters this week. I give him a puncher's chance, though he might get bet down some, which doesn't thrill me. He's still worth using, though, as the barn is red-hot right now.
[h=3]3. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux); ML 20-1[/h]This Derby buzz horse didn't do much running in Louisville, which could bode well for his chances here -- or he could flop again and lend credence to those who think he is a one-hit wonder who got a perfect setup in New Mexico. While he's won from near the pace, it's likely he does his best running from off it. I'm certainly willing to give another chance, as Steve Asmussen has won the Preakness a couple of times (yes, with special horses), but if he's the next Louis Quatorze, Hansen or Snow Chief, don't you want to be holding a ticket at nearly 20-1?
Keep in mind that each of the past four years a nice price has completed the exacta, including Cherry Wine last year at 17-1 and Tale of Verve in 2015 at 29-1. So if you think Always Dreaming or Classic Empire is the winner, don't be afraid to use Hence underneath.
[h=3]4. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 4-5[/h]The Derby winner had a dream run on the best part of the track, and with the injury to Royal Mo, he again sees the pace scenario much to his liking, though the fact he drew well inside of Conquest Mo Money could be a bit of a concern if the latter decides not to clear from Post 10.
In the past 10 years, three Derby winners won in the slop and then were beaten at Pimlico on a fast track, including the Todd Pletcher-trained Super Saver in 2010. This is also just the fourth time Pletcher will run a horse back in the Preakness that ran in the Derby. The first three finished eighth, fifth and third in the Preakness, but Always Dreaming appears to be better than those. He is a deserving favorite and the most likely winner -- favorites have won eight of the last 13 Triple Crown races, and one of the top two choices has won the Preakness in 13 of the past 16 years. But I will also play around with some prices in front and behind him in case some of the concerns become realized.
[h=3]5. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux); ML 3-1[/h]After a tough race in Arkansas and a brutal start to the Derby, Mark Casse is giving the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ another shot against Always Dreaming in what could be a more manageable spot. I'm curious, though, how Julien Leparoux will ride him here. His best race was that BC Juvenile win in which he sat right off the lead. I wonder whether he will be a lot closer to the lead Saturday, as with not a lot of speed signed on and Always Dreaming likely to get another perfect stalking trip, maybe Classic Empire will sit a closer, pressing third so not to allow Always Dreaming such a jump on him. If you like Classic Empire, I won't tell you not to bet him, but I'm skeptical.
Nothing has really gone right for him this spring, and if he does press the pace as I think he might, maybe that softens him up, he's punchless in the stretch and it sets things up for a closer. What I would suggest though is not playing him second behind Always Dreaming. It's been 36 years since the favorite won the Preakness and the second choice ran second. If you like Classic Empire, play him to win and/or with longer prices.
[h=3]6. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Mike Smith); ML 15-1[/h]Another horse that didn't do much running in Louisville now gets the services of Mike Smith. Reports are he looks better here than he did going into the Derby, so maybe he can run back to the fountain of youth and light up the tote. He's at the mercy of the pace, however. Mike Smith will surely give him every chance to win, and he's ridden a couple of double-digit prices to third-place finishes in the past few years, so don't be surprised to hear his name called in the stretch; it's just a matter of how many he can pick off before the wire. I was against him in Louisville, but I will use him here as one with an upset chance. Again, prices come in underneath. In the past four years, half of the 12 horses that made up the trifecta had at least 11-1 odds.
[h=3]7. Term of Art (Doug O'Neill/Jose Ortiz): ML 30-1[/h]A fresh face who has been soundly beaten in all four starts this year -- all in graded stakes races. He'll plod around and possibly pass a couple late, but I can't see him having any impact on the money spots. If you're playing supers, use him sporadically for fourth as a saver, but that's about it.
[h=3]8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill): ML 30-1[/h]This one-run closer got up in the final jump at Keeneland to win the Lexington, but with a pace that seems as if it will not be too fast up front, I can't see a repeat of that performance here. His top Beyer speed figure of 88 is the worst top Beyer in the field. Neither Girvin nor Patch did much in the Derby out of the Louisiana Derby, where Senior Investment ran sixth (of nine). He's here for the Preakness party and to see whether maybe they can run a few down to get a check, but I wouldn't use him for anything other than third at best.
[h=3]9. Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie); ML 10-1[/h]The Derby runner-up will try and make it the second straight year that a second-place finisher in Louisville has came back to win the Preakness. Before Exaggerator's win last year, the last Derby runner-up to win the Preakness was Prairie Bayou in 1993. I'm not really feeling his chances here, though. He got an extremely fortunate rail run in Louisville, and many of his competitors didn't fire, were stuck in the worst part of the track or were caught up in the cavalry charge. Doesn't mean I won't use him to pick up the pieces for third or fourth here, but I think an exacta finish might just be out of reach, as he surely won't get it all his way again. One little quirky note: The third choice hasn't won the Preakness since Silver Charm 1997, and Lookin At Lee is the third choice on the morning line.
[h=3]10. Conquest Mo Money (Miguel Hernandez/Jorge Carreno); ML 15-1[/h]My guess is the Triple Crown newcomer will attempt -- successfully -- to clear the field and cut out the fractions, taking them as far as he can. As his Arkansas Derby effort showed, he's a very game animal and might make it a whole lot tougher on Always Dreaming than many think. And if that's the case, it could set things up for someone to pass them both late. I'll be using underneath in tris and supers as his heart and efforts against Classic Empire and Hence merit inclusion.
[h=2]Fallica's potential ways to play the race:[/h]$1 tri 4/1-2-3-6/1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 ($28)
$1 tri 4/2-3-6/1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 ($21)
$1 tri 2-3-6/4-5/1-2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10 ($42)
$2 wps 2-3-6 ($18)
$1 exacta box 2-3-4-5-6 ($20)
$1 exacta box 1-2-3-6/4-5 ($16)
[h=2]Lane Gold's value picks[/h][h=3]Classic Empire (No. 5, 3-1 ML)[/h]He is the obvious choice to knock off the Derby winner. He was fourth to Always Dreaming a couple of weeks ago in the Derby, but when you dig deeper, there's a lot to like.
The 2-year-old champion had a tough start as Irish War Cry moved over at the start and knocked him off stride. The result is that Classic Empire dropped much farther back than he had ever been before. When he finally got rolling, jockey Julien Leparoux had to go very wide on the final turn.
The other huge plus of the Derby is that he got another race under his belt in 2017, which is important because he missed crucial training time during the winter. He should be sharp as he's been all year.
He will likely be much closer to the lead in the Preakness and with good position, he should have a clean trip. He might not offer a big return on your money but has the best chance to stop Always Dreaming.
[h=3]Cloud Computing (No. 2, 12-1 ML)[/h]Trainer Chad Brown, one of the rising stars in racing, has achieved a lot of success in the past few years but has yet to win any of the Triple Crown races.
This colt is his first trainee to run in the Middle Jewel, and though inexperienced (three lifetime races), he has a lot of talent. Most recently he was third to Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial, but Brown had this race in mind for his next start.
He has trained very well since then and has thrived since arriving at Pimlico this week. The biggest challenge for him and jockey Javier Castellano is how the colt handles the large Preakness crowd and making sure he doesn't get pinned down along the inside, as he will be behind the early speed.
[h=3]Hence (No. 3, 20-1 ML)[/h]He was one of the horses creating buzz during Kentucky Derby week, and expectations were high that he could deliver trainer Steve Asmussen's first Derby victory.
He was sent off at 15-1 in the Derby, but he and jockey Florent Geroux encountered a lot of trouble and finished 11th. Still, Asmussen said this week that he came out of the Derby in great shape.
The key for him is to not fall too far behind. The Preakness is a shorter race than the Derby, and it's really difficult to close from last to first. He has shown the ability to be closer to the lead, and I suspect Geroux and Asmusssen will aim to be in fifth or sixth in the early going.
[h=3]Gunnevera (No. 6, 15-1 ML)[/h]Gunnevera was one of the feel-good stories of the Derby, as his trainer, Antonio Sano, had been kidnapped twice in his native Venezuela. He ran poorly in the Derby, unfortunately, but there are a lot of reasons he should run better this time around.
First, he won't have the traffic problems he encountered two weeks ago, which caused to him to not have a clear path for an extended period of time -- something crucial for a horse that is a closer. Next, the track is expected to be fast, with no rain forecast.
Plus, if you like Always Dreaming, it's hard not to like Gunnevera at a good price. He was third to the Derby winner in the Florida Derby despite being last early. Sano also made the smart move of picking up Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith after Castellano bailed and moved to Cloud Computing.
The key for Gunnevera, similar to Hence, is not falling too far behind. If the pace up front is quick and he can be no more than 10-12 lengths behind early, he will have a chance to come rolling down the Pimlico stretch.
[h=2]Gold's potential ways to play the race[/h]For exactas, play Classic Empire on top of Cloud Computing, Hence, Gunnevera and Always Dreaming. In addition, bet Cloud Computing, Hence and Gunnevera on top of Classic Empire and Always Dreaming.
For those who like to play trifectas and superfectas, you can certainly box those five horses, and if Always Dreaming runs third or worse, you will have a very nice payoff.
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
If you were looking to make a big score in the Triple Crown, that opportunity has come and gone, as the Kentucky Derby again yielded some large payoffs despite the favorite winning yet again.
The Preakness has been relatively predictable over the past few years, as the first or second betting choices have won 14 of the 16 renewals, including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. But what has made the Preakness an attractive race to bet is the fact that long shots have been able to run second.
Always Dreaming is undoubtedly the horse to beat on Saturday. His Derby victory was impressive and marked his fourth straight triumph, all since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher's barn last year. But to turn around in two weeks and duplicate that effort is far from a sure thing.
Let's look at the field:
[h=2]Chris Fallica's guide to the field[/h][h=3]1. Multiplier (Trainer: Brendan Walsh, jockey: Joel Rosario); morning line: 30-1[/h]The Illinois Derby winner has improved each race, and his running style suggests he could pick up a minor share. Connections often outrun their odds, but I think a win here could be asking too much; third or fourth wouldn't be out of the question. He certainly shouldn't have as long odds as Term of Art or Senior Investment.
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[h=3]2. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano); ML 12-1[/h]He's only raced three times and skipped the Derby after being beaten seven lengths by Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial Stakes. The last horse to win the Preakness after not running the first weekend in May -- Oaks or Derby -- was Bernardini in 2006, and Bernardini was a special horse. Side note: Javier Castellano, who is on Cloud Computing, rode Bernardini in that Preakness win. Cloud Computing certainly looks the part and has picked up his fair share of supporters this week. I give him a puncher's chance, though he might get bet down some, which doesn't thrill me. He's still worth using, though, as the barn is red-hot right now.
[h=3]3. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux); ML 20-1[/h]This Derby buzz horse didn't do much running in Louisville, which could bode well for his chances here -- or he could flop again and lend credence to those who think he is a one-hit wonder who got a perfect setup in New Mexico. While he's won from near the pace, it's likely he does his best running from off it. I'm certainly willing to give another chance, as Steve Asmussen has won the Preakness a couple of times (yes, with special horses), but if he's the next Louis Quatorze, Hansen or Snow Chief, don't you want to be holding a ticket at nearly 20-1?
Keep in mind that each of the past four years a nice price has completed the exacta, including Cherry Wine last year at 17-1 and Tale of Verve in 2015 at 29-1. So if you think Always Dreaming or Classic Empire is the winner, don't be afraid to use Hence underneath.
[h=3]4. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 4-5[/h]The Derby winner had a dream run on the best part of the track, and with the injury to Royal Mo, he again sees the pace scenario much to his liking, though the fact he drew well inside of Conquest Mo Money could be a bit of a concern if the latter decides not to clear from Post 10.
In the past 10 years, three Derby winners won in the slop and then were beaten at Pimlico on a fast track, including the Todd Pletcher-trained Super Saver in 2010. This is also just the fourth time Pletcher will run a horse back in the Preakness that ran in the Derby. The first three finished eighth, fifth and third in the Preakness, but Always Dreaming appears to be better than those. He is a deserving favorite and the most likely winner -- favorites have won eight of the last 13 Triple Crown races, and one of the top two choices has won the Preakness in 13 of the past 16 years. But I will also play around with some prices in front and behind him in case some of the concerns become realized.
[h=3]5. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux); ML 3-1[/h]After a tough race in Arkansas and a brutal start to the Derby, Mark Casse is giving the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ another shot against Always Dreaming in what could be a more manageable spot. I'm curious, though, how Julien Leparoux will ride him here. His best race was that BC Juvenile win in which he sat right off the lead. I wonder whether he will be a lot closer to the lead Saturday, as with not a lot of speed signed on and Always Dreaming likely to get another perfect stalking trip, maybe Classic Empire will sit a closer, pressing third so not to allow Always Dreaming such a jump on him. If you like Classic Empire, I won't tell you not to bet him, but I'm skeptical.
Nothing has really gone right for him this spring, and if he does press the pace as I think he might, maybe that softens him up, he's punchless in the stretch and it sets things up for a closer. What I would suggest though is not playing him second behind Always Dreaming. It's been 36 years since the favorite won the Preakness and the second choice ran second. If you like Classic Empire, play him to win and/or with longer prices.
[h=3]6. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Mike Smith); ML 15-1[/h]Another horse that didn't do much running in Louisville now gets the services of Mike Smith. Reports are he looks better here than he did going into the Derby, so maybe he can run back to the fountain of youth and light up the tote. He's at the mercy of the pace, however. Mike Smith will surely give him every chance to win, and he's ridden a couple of double-digit prices to third-place finishes in the past few years, so don't be surprised to hear his name called in the stretch; it's just a matter of how many he can pick off before the wire. I was against him in Louisville, but I will use him here as one with an upset chance. Again, prices come in underneath. In the past four years, half of the 12 horses that made up the trifecta had at least 11-1 odds.
[h=3]7. Term of Art (Doug O'Neill/Jose Ortiz): ML 30-1[/h]A fresh face who has been soundly beaten in all four starts this year -- all in graded stakes races. He'll plod around and possibly pass a couple late, but I can't see him having any impact on the money spots. If you're playing supers, use him sporadically for fourth as a saver, but that's about it.
[h=3]8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill): ML 30-1[/h]This one-run closer got up in the final jump at Keeneland to win the Lexington, but with a pace that seems as if it will not be too fast up front, I can't see a repeat of that performance here. His top Beyer speed figure of 88 is the worst top Beyer in the field. Neither Girvin nor Patch did much in the Derby out of the Louisiana Derby, where Senior Investment ran sixth (of nine). He's here for the Preakness party and to see whether maybe they can run a few down to get a check, but I wouldn't use him for anything other than third at best.
[h=3]9. Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie); ML 10-1[/h]The Derby runner-up will try and make it the second straight year that a second-place finisher in Louisville has came back to win the Preakness. Before Exaggerator's win last year, the last Derby runner-up to win the Preakness was Prairie Bayou in 1993. I'm not really feeling his chances here, though. He got an extremely fortunate rail run in Louisville, and many of his competitors didn't fire, were stuck in the worst part of the track or were caught up in the cavalry charge. Doesn't mean I won't use him to pick up the pieces for third or fourth here, but I think an exacta finish might just be out of reach, as he surely won't get it all his way again. One little quirky note: The third choice hasn't won the Preakness since Silver Charm 1997, and Lookin At Lee is the third choice on the morning line.
[h=3]10. Conquest Mo Money (Miguel Hernandez/Jorge Carreno); ML 15-1[/h]My guess is the Triple Crown newcomer will attempt -- successfully -- to clear the field and cut out the fractions, taking them as far as he can. As his Arkansas Derby effort showed, he's a very game animal and might make it a whole lot tougher on Always Dreaming than many think. And if that's the case, it could set things up for someone to pass them both late. I'll be using underneath in tris and supers as his heart and efforts against Classic Empire and Hence merit inclusion.
[h=2]Fallica's potential ways to play the race:[/h]$1 tri 4/1-2-3-6/1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 ($28)
$1 tri 4/2-3-6/1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 ($21)
$1 tri 2-3-6/4-5/1-2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10 ($42)
$2 wps 2-3-6 ($18)
$1 exacta box 2-3-4-5-6 ($20)
$1 exacta box 1-2-3-6/4-5 ($16)
[h=2]Lane Gold's value picks[/h][h=3]Classic Empire (No. 5, 3-1 ML)[/h]He is the obvious choice to knock off the Derby winner. He was fourth to Always Dreaming a couple of weeks ago in the Derby, but when you dig deeper, there's a lot to like.
The 2-year-old champion had a tough start as Irish War Cry moved over at the start and knocked him off stride. The result is that Classic Empire dropped much farther back than he had ever been before. When he finally got rolling, jockey Julien Leparoux had to go very wide on the final turn.
The other huge plus of the Derby is that he got another race under his belt in 2017, which is important because he missed crucial training time during the winter. He should be sharp as he's been all year.
He will likely be much closer to the lead in the Preakness and with good position, he should have a clean trip. He might not offer a big return on your money but has the best chance to stop Always Dreaming.
[h=3]Cloud Computing (No. 2, 12-1 ML)[/h]Trainer Chad Brown, one of the rising stars in racing, has achieved a lot of success in the past few years but has yet to win any of the Triple Crown races.
This colt is his first trainee to run in the Middle Jewel, and though inexperienced (three lifetime races), he has a lot of talent. Most recently he was third to Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial, but Brown had this race in mind for his next start.
He has trained very well since then and has thrived since arriving at Pimlico this week. The biggest challenge for him and jockey Javier Castellano is how the colt handles the large Preakness crowd and making sure he doesn't get pinned down along the inside, as he will be behind the early speed.
[h=3]Hence (No. 3, 20-1 ML)[/h]He was one of the horses creating buzz during Kentucky Derby week, and expectations were high that he could deliver trainer Steve Asmussen's first Derby victory.
He was sent off at 15-1 in the Derby, but he and jockey Florent Geroux encountered a lot of trouble and finished 11th. Still, Asmussen said this week that he came out of the Derby in great shape.
The key for him is to not fall too far behind. The Preakness is a shorter race than the Derby, and it's really difficult to close from last to first. He has shown the ability to be closer to the lead, and I suspect Geroux and Asmusssen will aim to be in fifth or sixth in the early going.
[h=3]Gunnevera (No. 6, 15-1 ML)[/h]Gunnevera was one of the feel-good stories of the Derby, as his trainer, Antonio Sano, had been kidnapped twice in his native Venezuela. He ran poorly in the Derby, unfortunately, but there are a lot of reasons he should run better this time around.
First, he won't have the traffic problems he encountered two weeks ago, which caused to him to not have a clear path for an extended period of time -- something crucial for a horse that is a closer. Next, the track is expected to be fast, with no rain forecast.
Plus, if you like Always Dreaming, it's hard not to like Gunnevera at a good price. He was third to the Derby winner in the Florida Derby despite being last early. Sano also made the smart move of picking up Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith after Castellano bailed and moved to Cloud Computing.
The key for Gunnevera, similar to Hence, is not falling too far behind. If the pace up front is quick and he can be no more than 10-12 lengths behind early, he will have a chance to come rolling down the Pimlico stretch.
[h=2]Gold's potential ways to play the race[/h]For exactas, play Classic Empire on top of Cloud Computing, Hence, Gunnevera and Always Dreaming. In addition, bet Cloud Computing, Hence and Gunnevera on top of Classic Empire and Always Dreaming.
For those who like to play trifectas and superfectas, you can certainly box those five horses, and if Always Dreaming runs third or worse, you will have a very nice payoff.
