[h=1]Should Celtics keep the No. 1 pick or trade for a star?[/h]Chad FordKevin Pelton
ESPN INSIDER
Should the Boston Celtics swap the No. 1 in the 2017 NBA draft pick for superstars Jimmy Butler or Paul George (or a future star such as Kristaps Porzingis)? How do current All-Star Isaiah Thomas and free agents like Gordon Hayward factor into the decision?
Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton debate Boston's options and offer their verdicts.
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[h=2]Who would Boston trade for?[/h]Ford: The Boston Celtics were the big winners in Tuesday night's lottery, securing the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft. Most teams in this spot are in desperate need of young talent and rarely seriously consider trading the pick. But the Celtics are in a much different position. They are in the Eastern Conference finals, and even after losing Game 1 badly at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, they look to be one All-Star away from being a serious championship contender.
The temptation to try to turn this pick into an established All-Star in his prime will be strong for the Celtics. Should they do it?
Kevin, let's start with a baseline question. What is the No. 1 pick in this draft worth? What could the Celtics reasonably expect to get in return?
Pelton: Based on the analysis I've done on the cost of a win, the typical value of a No. 1 pick and the new rookie scale for first-round picks, I find that an average No. 1 pick would provide production worth about $36 million more than his rookie contract.
To put that in context, there are 15 players in the league -- mostly either current All-Stars or promising young players like Kristaps Porzingis of the New York Knicks -- projected to provide more value above and beyond their salary over the life of their current contracts. Those are the kind of stars Boston would be targeting in return, highlighted by Chicago Bulls wing Jimmy Butler.
Ford: Interesting that you mention Butler. He and the Indiana Pacers' Paul George are the two players who appear to be fits for the Celtics. Both players give them an upgrade on the wing (though Jae Crowder's terrific contract might mitigate some of the improvement), are in the prime of their careers and could be the missing piece for Boston. And I think the Bulls and Pacers would both be motivated to trade them for the No. 1 pick.
I guess the question is, do you think the addition of Butler or George is worth a chance to draft Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz for the Celtics? I say yes for George -- if he would agree to sign a long-term extension in Boston. For Butler, I think the Celtics might need a little more in the deal. Is there anyone else Boston should be eyeing besides those two?
Pelton: That's a pretty big if with George. I wrote about the hypothetical choice for Boston before the trade deadline, and concluded that while George was the better fit with the Celtics' roster, his contract made Butler the better choice. That choice is even easier now that Boston would be guaranteed only one playoff run with George. There's no way that renting him would be worth giving up Fultz or Ball.
Because Butler has the extra year on his contract before a player option, and because he projects as the better overall player after outperforming George this season, he looks more valuable than the No. 1 pick. I estimate his net value above and beyond his salary the next two seasons at $54 million. So the No. 1 pick for Butler would be a good value. The No. 1 pick and Crowder for Butler? I'm drawing the line there because Crowder has three seasons left on his deal at an average of $7.3 million, less than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception at the CBA. The upgrade from Crowder to Butler isn't big enough to justify giving up the No. 1 pick as well.
Anyone else the Celtics should be considering? If I were Danny Ainge, I'd definitely be bugging Phil Jackson about Porzingis' availability. Porzingis would provide an ideal combination of value to Boston right now -- he'd immediately fill the fifth spot in the starting lineup that has been an issue for the Celtics in the playoffs -- and ability to grow with the team's young talents and peak after LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have finally started to come back to earth.
Would Phil hang up on me?
Ford: Probably. Drafting Porzingis is the one thing Phil Jackson has done right in his tenure. Most of the other moves he has made have been a disaster. Porzingis represents hope to the Knicks and even as good as Fultz and Ball are, it's tough to trade potential for a player you already are confident will be a star someday. But I do agree with you that Porzingis with the Celtics is a good fit and worth a phone call from Ainge. Maybe a combination of the No. 1 pick plus another asset for Boston would do the trick.
[h=2]Reasons to keep the pick[/h]Ford: So those are the players who might be available to the Celtics. But let's talk about the merits of keeping their pick. Is there a player in this draft that you see as an ideal fit for the Celtics? Someone who both has a high ceiling but also could contribute to the team as it's currently constructed (or could be potentially constructed if the Celtics moved a player or two)?
Pelton: It's interesting. As far as I can tell, the consensus is that Fultz is a better fit alongside Isaiah Thomas as a shooting guard, and I disagree. It remains to be seen how effective both Ball and Fultz will be as catch-and-shoot options spotting up away from the ball, something I'm sure we'll dig into before the draft. But I think Ball's court vision will make him an effective playmaker when the ball is swung to him on the weak side. Meanwhile, running pick-and-roll is far and away Fultz's best skill, and while he'll have the ability to do that at times playing with Thomas, it's unlikely to be the focus of his game.
Of course, given the development curve for young point guards, Boston shouldn't be making this decision based on how Ball and Fultz fit with players who might not be on the roster by the time they start to come into their own. And if we're talking about a replacement for Thomas, I think Fultz is better suited to be the centerpiece of an offense in the same way Thomas is now. I'm assuming you agree that he's the right choice for Boston?
Ford: I would lean Fultz right now for a reason that you didn't state: He has the ability to play and defend multiple positions and I think he gives the Celtics some flexibility that Ball doesn't. But I agree that Ball could also be a good fit in Boston given its current roster.
I also wonder, as good as Thomas is, whether the Celtics should be making this move with the assumption that he's a cornerstone of the franchise. Thomas has been incredible the past two seasons, but I'm not sure you are a championship contender riding the back of a 5-foot-9 combo guard. Thomas has proven me wrong in the past and might do so again, but if Ainge is looking at the long play, I think Fultz would be my choice.
So I guess that gets us to the final question. If you're Ainge, do you trade this pick (assuming the players we discussed were available) or do you keep the pick and draft either Ball or Fultz?
Pelton: The one variable we haven't discussed here is free agency. If Boston is able to sign Gordon Hayward, the idea of trading Crowder and the No. 1 pick as part of a Butler deal becomes a lot more palatable. At that point, the Celtics might be one player away from seriously challenging the Cavaliers and having a chance to legitimately compete with the Golden State Warriors in a possible NBA Finals matchup.
Alas, Boston won't know the outcome of free agency until after the draft. So unless the Bulls are willing to move Butler without getting a starter in return, I'd hang on to the pick and draft Fultz, giving the Celtics maximum flexibility to compete both now and for years to come. What's your verdict?
Ford: I'm skeptical that Boston will get Hayward. The Utah Jazz can offer him significantly more money, they have a great young nucleus and he gets along well with head coach Quin Snyder. Players usually don't leave millions of dollars on the table, especially when they are already in a good situation.
But I do think you are right that the most prudent move for the Celtics is to be patient. Draft Fultz, see how free agency pans out and then make the moves you need to make. That's what the Cavs did a few years ago when they drafted Andrew Wiggins. Then, when LeBron signed in free agency, they decided to go ahead and move Wiggins for Kevin Love.
If nothing presents itself, Boston has the best player in the draft. If a great deal comes along, they can pull the trigger. So, I'm with you, I'd punt the decision until mid-July. The deals available now should still be available then.
ESPN INSIDER
Should the Boston Celtics swap the No. 1 in the 2017 NBA draft pick for superstars Jimmy Butler or Paul George (or a future star such as Kristaps Porzingis)? How do current All-Star Isaiah Thomas and free agents like Gordon Hayward factor into the decision?
Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton debate Boston's options and offer their verdicts.
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[h=2]Who would Boston trade for?[/h]Ford: The Boston Celtics were the big winners in Tuesday night's lottery, securing the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft. Most teams in this spot are in desperate need of young talent and rarely seriously consider trading the pick. But the Celtics are in a much different position. They are in the Eastern Conference finals, and even after losing Game 1 badly at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, they look to be one All-Star away from being a serious championship contender.
The temptation to try to turn this pick into an established All-Star in his prime will be strong for the Celtics. Should they do it?
Kevin, let's start with a baseline question. What is the No. 1 pick in this draft worth? What could the Celtics reasonably expect to get in return?
Pelton: Based on the analysis I've done on the cost of a win, the typical value of a No. 1 pick and the new rookie scale for first-round picks, I find that an average No. 1 pick would provide production worth about $36 million more than his rookie contract.
To put that in context, there are 15 players in the league -- mostly either current All-Stars or promising young players like Kristaps Porzingis of the New York Knicks -- projected to provide more value above and beyond their salary over the life of their current contracts. Those are the kind of stars Boston would be targeting in return, highlighted by Chicago Bulls wing Jimmy Butler.
Ford: Interesting that you mention Butler. He and the Indiana Pacers' Paul George are the two players who appear to be fits for the Celtics. Both players give them an upgrade on the wing (though Jae Crowder's terrific contract might mitigate some of the improvement), are in the prime of their careers and could be the missing piece for Boston. And I think the Bulls and Pacers would both be motivated to trade them for the No. 1 pick.
I guess the question is, do you think the addition of Butler or George is worth a chance to draft Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz for the Celtics? I say yes for George -- if he would agree to sign a long-term extension in Boston. For Butler, I think the Celtics might need a little more in the deal. Is there anyone else Boston should be eyeing besides those two?
Pelton: That's a pretty big if with George. I wrote about the hypothetical choice for Boston before the trade deadline, and concluded that while George was the better fit with the Celtics' roster, his contract made Butler the better choice. That choice is even easier now that Boston would be guaranteed only one playoff run with George. There's no way that renting him would be worth giving up Fultz or Ball.
Because Butler has the extra year on his contract before a player option, and because he projects as the better overall player after outperforming George this season, he looks more valuable than the No. 1 pick. I estimate his net value above and beyond his salary the next two seasons at $54 million. So the No. 1 pick for Butler would be a good value. The No. 1 pick and Crowder for Butler? I'm drawing the line there because Crowder has three seasons left on his deal at an average of $7.3 million, less than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception at the CBA. The upgrade from Crowder to Butler isn't big enough to justify giving up the No. 1 pick as well.
Anyone else the Celtics should be considering? If I were Danny Ainge, I'd definitely be bugging Phil Jackson about Porzingis' availability. Porzingis would provide an ideal combination of value to Boston right now -- he'd immediately fill the fifth spot in the starting lineup that has been an issue for the Celtics in the playoffs -- and ability to grow with the team's young talents and peak after LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have finally started to come back to earth.
Would Phil hang up on me?
Ford: Probably. Drafting Porzingis is the one thing Phil Jackson has done right in his tenure. Most of the other moves he has made have been a disaster. Porzingis represents hope to the Knicks and even as good as Fultz and Ball are, it's tough to trade potential for a player you already are confident will be a star someday. But I do agree with you that Porzingis with the Celtics is a good fit and worth a phone call from Ainge. Maybe a combination of the No. 1 pick plus another asset for Boston would do the trick.
[h=2]Reasons to keep the pick[/h]Ford: So those are the players who might be available to the Celtics. But let's talk about the merits of keeping their pick. Is there a player in this draft that you see as an ideal fit for the Celtics? Someone who both has a high ceiling but also could contribute to the team as it's currently constructed (or could be potentially constructed if the Celtics moved a player or two)?
Pelton: It's interesting. As far as I can tell, the consensus is that Fultz is a better fit alongside Isaiah Thomas as a shooting guard, and I disagree. It remains to be seen how effective both Ball and Fultz will be as catch-and-shoot options spotting up away from the ball, something I'm sure we'll dig into before the draft. But I think Ball's court vision will make him an effective playmaker when the ball is swung to him on the weak side. Meanwhile, running pick-and-roll is far and away Fultz's best skill, and while he'll have the ability to do that at times playing with Thomas, it's unlikely to be the focus of his game.
Of course, given the development curve for young point guards, Boston shouldn't be making this decision based on how Ball and Fultz fit with players who might not be on the roster by the time they start to come into their own. And if we're talking about a replacement for Thomas, I think Fultz is better suited to be the centerpiece of an offense in the same way Thomas is now. I'm assuming you agree that he's the right choice for Boston?
Ford: I would lean Fultz right now for a reason that you didn't state: He has the ability to play and defend multiple positions and I think he gives the Celtics some flexibility that Ball doesn't. But I agree that Ball could also be a good fit in Boston given its current roster.
I also wonder, as good as Thomas is, whether the Celtics should be making this move with the assumption that he's a cornerstone of the franchise. Thomas has been incredible the past two seasons, but I'm not sure you are a championship contender riding the back of a 5-foot-9 combo guard. Thomas has proven me wrong in the past and might do so again, but if Ainge is looking at the long play, I think Fultz would be my choice.
So I guess that gets us to the final question. If you're Ainge, do you trade this pick (assuming the players we discussed were available) or do you keep the pick and draft either Ball or Fultz?
Pelton: The one variable we haven't discussed here is free agency. If Boston is able to sign Gordon Hayward, the idea of trading Crowder and the No. 1 pick as part of a Butler deal becomes a lot more palatable. At that point, the Celtics might be one player away from seriously challenging the Cavaliers and having a chance to legitimately compete with the Golden State Warriors in a possible NBA Finals matchup.
Alas, Boston won't know the outcome of free agency until after the draft. So unless the Bulls are willing to move Butler without getting a starter in return, I'd hang on to the pick and draft Fultz, giving the Celtics maximum flexibility to compete both now and for years to come. What's your verdict?
Ford: I'm skeptical that Boston will get Hayward. The Utah Jazz can offer him significantly more money, they have a great young nucleus and he gets along well with head coach Quin Snyder. Players usually don't leave millions of dollars on the table, especially when they are already in a good situation.
But I do think you are right that the most prudent move for the Celtics is to be patient. Draft Fultz, see how free agency pans out and then make the moves you need to make. That's what the Cavs did a few years ago when they drafted Andrew Wiggins. Then, when LeBron signed in free agency, they decided to go ahead and move Wiggins for Kevin Love.
If nothing presents itself, Boston has the best player in the draft. If a great deal comes along, they can pull the trigger. So, I'm with you, I'd punt the decision until mid-July. The deals available now should still be available then.
