NBA Finals betting guide
Erin Rynning
Special to ESPN.com
Espn insider
The series that NBA fans have been waiting for -- and bettors have eyed -- since June 2016 is finally here.
The Golden State Warriors are seeking revenge from last year's Finals after blowing what seemed to be an insurmountable 3-1 series lead. The opening two games last year featured the Warriors as a 6-to-6.5-point favorite with Golden State outscoring the Cleveland Cavaliers 214-166 in two easy spread covers.
The pointspread is similar this season, with the Warriors a 7-point favorite in Game 1 with a series price of -255 (Cavs +215) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. In addition, it's worth noting in the Christmas Day showdown the Warriors were favored by 3.5 points in Cleveland. They lost 109-108. Golden State embarrassed Cleveland in the quick turnaround rematch as a 9-point favorite on its home court in mid-January.
Compared to the 2016 series, this Game 1 total is the huge mover. In 2016 the Game 1 total number was 211, while Game 7 eventually closed around 205. Four of the seven games landing under the total (with one push). Both 2016-17 regular-season games fell short of the total. This is all worth mentioning, as the current Game 1 total from the Westgate is 226 or a full 21 points higher than last year's ending number. Overs have ruled the 2017 NBA playoffs with a significant 44-29-1 trend.
Here's my breakdown of the best bets for the 2017 NBA Finals.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
Series price: Golden State -255/Cleveland +215
Game 1 line: Golden State -7 (O/U: 226)
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent bet Cleveland
High-powered offense is the theme of these finals, but with one postseason loss between these two teams, it will most likely be the better defense that decides the Finals. I expect the Warriors to continue their high-octane ways in the Finals, while coming off averaging an amazing 124.5 PPG in the Western Conference finals against Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs. Of course, the major difference in this year's championship matchup is the addition of Kevin Durant for Golden State. Durant paired with Steph Curry provides a lethal scoring combination a disappointing Cavaliers defense will fail to slow down.
The Cavaliers finished the regular season ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, but a more troubling 29th after the All-Star break. Yes, they've shown some improvement in the playoffs, but the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics both lost their playmaking point guards (Rajon Rondo and Isaiah Thomas) in their runaway series wins. The Raptors and Celtics both generated their share of solid looks at the basket against the Cavaliers, but failed to make the shots. In the Finals it won't be Marcus Smart and PJ Tucker looking to knock down open jumpers, it will be the Splash Brothers.
Meanwhile, while it's impossible to lock down the LeBron James-led Cavaliers offensively, Golden State can at least slow them down. The Cavaliers have morphed into their own brand of Warriors basketball, launching over 200 more 3-point shots in the regular season than Golden State did. In the playoffs the Cavaliers have made an astounding 43.5 percent of their 3s. However, the Warriors owned the best 3-point defense in the NBA this year (ranked second overall in efficiency) allowing their opponents to 32.4 percent from behind the line, and the Golden State's length, rotation and athletic ability match up well.
In the Cavaliers' lone 2017 playoff loss, it was their ice-cold second-half 3-point shooting that suffocated the offensive output. However, Cleveland's ability to get to the rim and provide itself with second-chance opportunities is its key link in beating the Warriors. The Warriors' rim protection is questionable, while James and Kyrie Irving are lethal when on the attack. The Cavaliers have produced six more points per game at the free throw line than their opponents in this year's playoff domination.
In the end, the Cavaliers are matched against one of the best NBA teams ever assembled. With the addition of Durant, a healthy Curry (and Andre Iguodala) and no regular-season burnout this year the Warriors are loaded with too much firepower. Golden State breaks the tiebreaker and wins this year's championship in five games. Play the Warriors to win the series and I'll lean to the Warriors minus the points in the Finals opener.
ESPN Chalk pick: Warriors to win series -255; lean Warriors -7 in Game 1
Erin Rynning
Special to ESPN.com
Espn insider
The series that NBA fans have been waiting for -- and bettors have eyed -- since June 2016 is finally here.
The Golden State Warriors are seeking revenge from last year's Finals after blowing what seemed to be an insurmountable 3-1 series lead. The opening two games last year featured the Warriors as a 6-to-6.5-point favorite with Golden State outscoring the Cleveland Cavaliers 214-166 in two easy spread covers.
The pointspread is similar this season, with the Warriors a 7-point favorite in Game 1 with a series price of -255 (Cavs +215) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. In addition, it's worth noting in the Christmas Day showdown the Warriors were favored by 3.5 points in Cleveland. They lost 109-108. Golden State embarrassed Cleveland in the quick turnaround rematch as a 9-point favorite on its home court in mid-January.
Compared to the 2016 series, this Game 1 total is the huge mover. In 2016 the Game 1 total number was 211, while Game 7 eventually closed around 205. Four of the seven games landing under the total (with one push). Both 2016-17 regular-season games fell short of the total. This is all worth mentioning, as the current Game 1 total from the Westgate is 226 or a full 21 points higher than last year's ending number. Overs have ruled the 2017 NBA playoffs with a significant 44-29-1 trend.
Here's my breakdown of the best bets for the 2017 NBA Finals.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
Series price: Golden State -255/Cleveland +215
Game 1 line: Golden State -7 (O/U: 226)
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent bet Cleveland
High-powered offense is the theme of these finals, but with one postseason loss between these two teams, it will most likely be the better defense that decides the Finals. I expect the Warriors to continue their high-octane ways in the Finals, while coming off averaging an amazing 124.5 PPG in the Western Conference finals against Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs. Of course, the major difference in this year's championship matchup is the addition of Kevin Durant for Golden State. Durant paired with Steph Curry provides a lethal scoring combination a disappointing Cavaliers defense will fail to slow down.
The Cavaliers finished the regular season ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, but a more troubling 29th after the All-Star break. Yes, they've shown some improvement in the playoffs, but the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics both lost their playmaking point guards (Rajon Rondo and Isaiah Thomas) in their runaway series wins. The Raptors and Celtics both generated their share of solid looks at the basket against the Cavaliers, but failed to make the shots. In the Finals it won't be Marcus Smart and PJ Tucker looking to knock down open jumpers, it will be the Splash Brothers.
Meanwhile, while it's impossible to lock down the LeBron James-led Cavaliers offensively, Golden State can at least slow them down. The Cavaliers have morphed into their own brand of Warriors basketball, launching over 200 more 3-point shots in the regular season than Golden State did. In the playoffs the Cavaliers have made an astounding 43.5 percent of their 3s. However, the Warriors owned the best 3-point defense in the NBA this year (ranked second overall in efficiency) allowing their opponents to 32.4 percent from behind the line, and the Golden State's length, rotation and athletic ability match up well.
In the Cavaliers' lone 2017 playoff loss, it was their ice-cold second-half 3-point shooting that suffocated the offensive output. However, Cleveland's ability to get to the rim and provide itself with second-chance opportunities is its key link in beating the Warriors. The Warriors' rim protection is questionable, while James and Kyrie Irving are lethal when on the attack. The Cavaliers have produced six more points per game at the free throw line than their opponents in this year's playoff domination.
In the end, the Cavaliers are matched against one of the best NBA teams ever assembled. With the addition of Durant, a healthy Curry (and Andre Iguodala) and no regular-season burnout this year the Warriors are loaded with too much firepower. Golden State breaks the tiebreaker and wins this year's championship in five games. Play the Warriors to win the series and I'll lean to the Warriors minus the points in the Finals opener.
ESPN Chalk pick: Warriors to win series -255; lean Warriors -7 in Game 1
