Betting every underdog blindly

Mowgli · Jun 3, 2017

I tracked the result of betting every underdog blindly for 6 weeks and found it resulted in a 45%+ win rate, profiting over 14 units per the Westgate odds listed at DonBest.

Do you think this would be a season long profitable system? Any insight as to how such a system would have performed in previous years?

<style type="text/css"></style>

Dog ML W	Dog ML L	UNITS	NET
271	320	14.54	45.85%

Apr 20	5	6	0.23
Apr 21	8	7	2.15
Apr 22	4	4	0.11
Apr 23	5	8	-1.39
Apr 24	5	4	1.75
Apr 25	3	8	-4
Apr 26	6	5	1.98
Apr 27	4	7	-1.54
Apr 28	9	6	6.18
Apr 29	7	6	3.39
Apr 30	7	8	-0.08
May 1	9	2	10.73
May 2	8	6	3.25
May 3	4	10	-5.19
May 4	7	4	4.34
May 5	6	9	-1.25
May 6	3	10	-6.75
May 7	6	8	-1.51
May 8	1	8	-6.68
May 9	9	7	3.94
May 10	4	8	-2.7
May 11	5	5	2.67
May 12	7	7	1.59
May 13	5	9	-2.27
May 14	9	8	3.7
May 15	2	6	-4.68
May 16	7	8	0.17
May 17	2	12	-9.31
May 18	6	5	-0.54
May 19	10	5	8.32
May 20	7	6	3.64
May 21	8	8	0.8
May 22	6	3	4.47
May 23	4	10	-4.4
May 24	6	9	-0.6
May 25	3	7	-3.34
May 26	7	8	0.21
May 27	7	9	-0.75
May 28	6	9	-1.16
May 29	5	10	-0.73
May 30	7	8	0.28
May 31	4	9	-3.89
Jun 1	6	2	4.93
Jun 2	8	7	1.77

CBBPHENOM · Jun 4, 2017

That will not work. Good luck!

Bigtomdawg · Jun 4, 2017

CBBPHENOM said:
That will not work. Good luck!

it will work a whole lot better then betting faves

elk102873 · Jun 4, 2017

How do you determine which team is an underdog in the following example?

Anaheim Angels -105 @
Oakland A's -105

About a zillion games are lined between -101 to -109 on each side.

CBBPHENOM · Jun 4, 2017

You could try these underdog betting strategies

https://www.boydsbets.com/betting-underdogs-in-baseball/

Mowgli · Jun 5, 2017

elk102873 said:
How do you determine which team is an underdog in the following example?

Anaheim Angels -105 @
Oakland A's -105

About a zillion games are lined between -101 to -109 on each side.

I check for which team is favored on the run line at Don Best. The opposing team is recorded as the underdog. I will track this system all season out of curiosity and see how much of a profit/loss it shows.

dave_1970 · Jun 5, 2017

Using my account at BetLabs I can show you the results of betting the Underdog on every game over the last 11 years. In case you cannot see the picture, the results are:

15003-19714
Winnings: -$52,996 (betting $100 per game)

There are underdog systems out there that win, but you need more filters to make it work, and you will be playing a LOT of games.

dave_1970 · Jun 5, 2017

Here's a profitable ML Dog system-- For MLB ML Game wagers, what were the results when the game is played during the Regular season and the moneyline % is between 1% and 39% and the closing moneyline is between -101 and 110 and the team's Win/Loss streak is -2 or -1 games

Results: 495-437 53%
Money Won: $8060

For some damn reason the Rx won't let me upload another image because it says my quota is exceeded. I think I can link to it though. Try this link:

http://account.betlabssports.com/shared-system.aspx?ScreenId=307105

varkeyboy · Jun 5, 2017

Is this based on $100/wager?

What if in a game..........both teams are -105? Then you lay off?

Mowgli · Jun 6, 2017

dave_1970 said:
Using my account at BetLabs I can show you the results of betting the Underdog on every game over the last 11 years. In case you cannot see the picture, the results are:

15003-19714
Winnings: -$52,996 (betting $100 per game)

There are underdog systems out there that win, but you need more filters to make it work, and you will be playing a LOT of games.

View attachment 18701

Appreciate that back tracking. It seems not a single year showed a profit if betting every underdog blindly. If convenient enough for you, could you do similar back tracking results for Favorite Run Line

rpark · Jun 6, 2017

There are 15 ml bets at most per day. If your angle or system is generating something like 10 ml plays per day it will probably not make money in the long run. You need to add on more filters or criterias.

Mowgli · Jun 8, 2017

2017 season to date up 45%+ 30+ units !!

<style type="text/css"></style>

Dog ML W	Dog ML L	UNITS	NET
436	512	30.95	45.99%
3	0	3.47
2	9	-6.95
2	7	-5.95
7	5	3.2
5	7	-0.93
9	6	5.4
9	6	6.25
7	8	1.41
3	7	-2.97
3	9	-4.8
11	4	11.6
6	5	0.8
7	8	1.29
5	10	-2.92
10	4	8.89
3	7	-2.32
9	6	6.73
4	10	-5.59
5	6	0.23
8	7	2.15
4	4	0.11
5	8	-1.39
5	4	1.75
3	8	-4
6	5	1.98
4	7	-1.54
9	6	6.18
7	6	3.39
7	8	-0.08
9	2	10.73
8	6	3.25
4	10	-5.19
7	4	4.34
6	9	-1.25
3	10	-6.75
6	8	-1.51
1	8	-6.68
9	7	3.94
4	8	-2.7
5	5	2.67
7	7	1.59
5	9	-2.27
9	8	3.7
2	6	-4.68
7	8	0.17
2	12	-9.31
6	5	-0.54
10	5	8.32
7	6	3.64
8	8	0.8
6	3	4.47
4	10	-4.4
6	9	-0.6
3	7	-3.34
7	8	0.21
7	9	-0.75
6	9	-1.16	-58
5	10	-0.73	-64
7	8	0.28	-158
4	9	-3.89	-93
6	2	4.93	524
8	7	1.77	68
7	8	1.01	-104
5	10	-4.6	-186
4	3	1.93	16
9	6	4.87	277
5	10	-3.31	-182

dave_1970 · Jun 8, 2017

Mogely I pay $200 a month for this data and I can assure you it is not up in 2017. Season to date it is 550-699 (44%) -$2616.

Here is the data from yesterday's plays, where it went 5-10. It ain't that easy!

Play on Chicago White Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	Chicago White Sox	3	1	6/7/17	176	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	Minnesota Twins	6	5	6/7/17	100	W	100	Dog	2017
Play on Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	Cleveland Indians	8	1	6/7/17	103	W	103	Dog	2017
Play on Miami Marlins	Chicago Cubs	Miami Marlins	5	6	6/7/17	174	W	174	Dog	2017
Play on Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	8	0	6/7/17	-100	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Dodgers	Washington Nationals	2	1	6/7/17	155	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres	7	4	6/7/17	190	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on San Francisco Giants	Milwaukee Brewers	San Francisco Giants	6	3	6/7/17	109	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	Houston Astros	7	5	6/7/17	101	W	101	Dog	2017
Play on New York Mets	Texas Rangers	New York Mets	3	4	6/7/17	130	W	130	Dog	2017
Play on Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays	5	7	6/7/17	-100	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on St Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	St Louis Cardinals	6	4	6/7/17	-102	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels	4	0	6/7/17	126	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	14	1	6/7/17	122	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Pittsburgh Pirates	Baltimore Orioles	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	6	6/7/17	139	L	-100	Dog	2017

dave_1970 · Jun 8, 2017

Here is yesterday with the column headers.

Play	Home Team	Visitor Team	Home Score	Visitor Score	Event Date	Odds	Result	Money Won	Favorite / Dog	Season
Play on Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	8	0	6/7/17	-100	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Chicago White Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	Chicago White Sox	3	1	6/7/17	176	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	Cleveland Indians	8	1	6/7/17	103	W	103	Dog	2017
Play on Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	Houston Astros	7	5	6/7/17	101	W	101	Dog	2017
Play on Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels	4	0	6/7/17	126	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Miami Marlins	Chicago Cubs	Miami Marlins	5	6	6/7/17	174	W	174	Dog	2017
Play on New York Mets	Texas Rangers	New York Mets	3	4	6/7/17	130	W	130	Dog	2017
Play on Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays	5	7	6/7/17	-100	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	14	1	6/7/17	122	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Pittsburgh Pirates	Baltimore Orioles	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	6	6/7/17	139	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres	7	4	6/7/17	190	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on San Francisco Giants	Milwaukee Brewers	San Francisco Giants	6	3	6/7/17	109	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	Minnesota Twins	6	5	6/7/17	100	W	100	Dog	2017
Play on St Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	St Louis Cardinals	6	4	6/7/17	-102	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Dodgers	Washington Nationals	2	1	6/7/17	155	L	-100	Dog	2017

Mowgli · Jun 9, 2017

dave1970, my records show 436 - 512 up 30.95 units @ 45.99% (you have to hilight the black portion from my sprdsht copy/paste to see all numbers)

Did I possibly miss out on a bunch of games - everything was back tracked using DonBest

dave_1970 · Jun 9, 2017

Let's try to figure out why there is such a discrepancy between our 2 systems. To start I found that BetLabs was including Preseason games in my system, so I filtered it to only count games played after opening day. It returned a record of 391-501 for a total of 892 games. You have a total of 948 games, so your system has 56 more games than mine does. It could possibly be where our 2 systems are getting their lines from. BetLabs lines come from Pinnacle I believe. It seems odd though that the dollar amount would be so different but there are differences between your calculations and mine. For instance yesterday we both show a record of 5-10, but I show a loss of 3.9 units and you have a loss of 3.3 units. Also I'm not clear about where you are getting the -182 number from?

Then on June 6th I show a W-L record of 8-7 for a gain of 2.73 units. You show a record of 9-6 for a gain of 4.87 units. Here are my games for that day.

Play	Home Team	Visitor Team	Home Score	Visitor Score	Event Date	Odds	Result	Money Won	Favorite / Dog	Season

Play on Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	St Louis Cardinals	13	1	6/6/17	122	W	122	Dog	2017
Play on Miami Marlins	Chicago Cubs	Miami Marlins	10	2	6/6/17	181	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels	3	5	6/6/17	129	W	129	Dog	2017
Play on Pittsburgh Pirates	Baltimore Orioles	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	5	6/6/17	111	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	Houston Astros	9	7	6/6/17	113	W	113	Dog	2017
Play on San Francisco Giants	Milwaukee Brewers	San Francisco Giants	5	2	6/6/17	104	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	New York Mets	10	8	6/6/17	124	W	124	Dog	2017
Play on Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	4	5	6/6/17	115	W	115	Dog	2017
Play on Minnesota Twins	Seattle Mariners	Minnesota Twins	12	3	6/6/17	177	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres	10	2	6/6/17	143	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	1	3	6/6/17	-101	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Chicago White Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	Chicago White Sox	2	4	6/6/17	157	W	157	Dog	2017
Play on Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	Toronto Blue Jays	4	1	6/6/17	110	W	110	Dog	2017
Play on Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	Washington Nationals	1	2	6/6/17	102	L	-100	Dog	2017
Play on Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	Cleveland Indians	11	3	6/6/17	103	W	103	Dog	2017

Can you look at your record from that day to find which Dog in your system won that was not in mine?

dtmad · Jun 9, 2017

Bigtomdawg said:
it will work a whole lot better then betting faves

You are right that it is better than betting faves, but still a losing proposition.

Mowgli · Jun 11, 2017

2017 season YTD record now 45%+ up over 27 units

Dave, game 953 Philadelphia vs Atlanta. The Underdog ML won and was listed at -108 on DonBest for the numbers at Westgate which I use as a standard, with Fav at -102. You have a LOSS in your records for that game, hence the discrepancy. I always determine Fav as team that is listed at -1.5 on RL per Westgate odds while opposing team is counted as underdog for tracking purposes.

The -182 you questioned was my personal loss from betting that day

<style type="text/css"></style>

	Dog ML W	Dog ML L	UNITS
	474	565	27.97
Apr 2	3	0	3.47
Apr 3	2	9	-6.95
Apr 4	2	7	-5.95
Apr 5	7	5	3.2
Apr 6	5	7	-0.93
Apr 7	9	6	5.4
Apr 8	9	6	6.25
Apr 9	7	8	1.41
Apr 10	3	7	-2.97
Apr 11	3	9	-4.8
Apr 12	11	4	11.6
Apr 13	6	5	0.8
Apr 14	7	8	1.29
Apr 15	5	10	-2.92
Apr 16	10	4	8.89
Apr 17	3	7	-2.32
Apr 18	9	6	6.73
Apr 19	4	10	-5.59
Apr 20	5	6	0.23
Apr 21	8	7	2.15
Apr 22	4	4	0.11
Apr 23	5	8	-1.39
Apr 24	5	4	1.75
Apr 25	3	8	-4
Apr 26	8	6	1.98
Apr 27	4	7	-1.54
Apr 28	9	6	6.18
Apr 29	7	6	3.39
Apr 30	7	8	-0.08
May 1	9	2	10.73
May 2	8	6	3.25
May 3	4	10	-5.19
May 4	7	4	4.34
May 5	6	9	-1.25
May 6	3	10	-6.75
May 7	6	8	-1.51
May 8	1	8	-6.68
May 9	9	7	3.94
May 10	4	8	-2.7
May 11	5	5	2.67
May 12	7	7	1.59
May 13	5	9	-2.27
May 14	9	8	3.7
May 15	2	6	-4.68
May 16	7	8	0.17
May 17	2	12	-9.31
May 18	6	5	-0.54
May 19	10	5	8.32
May 20	7	6	3.64
May 21	8	8	0.8
May 22	6	3	4.47
May 23	4	10	-4.4
May 24	6	9	-0.6
May 25	3	7	-3.34
May 26	7	8	0.21
May 27	7	9	-0.75
May 28	6	9	-1.16
May 29	5	10	-0.73
May 30	7	8	0.28
May 31	4	9	-3.89
Jun 1	6	2	4.93
Jun 2	8	7	1.77
Jun 3	7	8	1.01
Jun 4	5	10	-4.6
Jun 5	4	3	1.93
Jun 6	9	6	4.87
Jun 7	5	10	-3.31
Jun 8	4	8	-2.28
Jun 9	8	7	3.39
Jun 10	6	11	-2.6

Mowgli · Jun 13, 2017

45.45%	Dog ML W	Dog ML L	UNITS
	494	593	29.97
Apr 2	3	0	3.47
Apr 3	2	9	-6.95
Apr 4	2	7	-5.95
Apr 5	7	5	3.2
Apr 6	5	7	-0.93
Apr 7	9	6	5.4
Apr 8	9	6	6.25
Apr 9	7	8	1.41
Apr 10	3	7	-2.97
Apr 11	3	9	-4.8
Apr 12	11	4	11.6
Apr 13	6	5	0.8
Apr 14	7	8	1.29
Apr 15	5	10	-2.92
Apr 16	10	4	8.89
Apr 17	3	7	-2.32
Apr 18	9	6	6.73
Apr 19	4	10	-5.59
Apr 20	5	6	0.23
Apr 21	8	7	2.15
Apr 22	4	4	0.11
Apr 23	5	8	-1.39
Apr 24	5	4	1.75
Apr 25	3	8	-4
Apr 26	8	6	1.98
Apr 27	4	7	-1.54
Apr 28	9	6	6.18
Apr 29	7	6	3.39
Apr 30	7	8	-0.08
May 1	9	2	10.73
May 2	8	6	3.25
May 3	4	10	-5.19
May 4	7	4	4.34
May 5	6	9	-1.25
May 6	3	10	-6.75
May 7	6	8	-1.51
May 8	1	8	-6.68
May 9	9	7	3.94
May 10	4	8	-2.7
May 11	5	5	2.67
May 12	7	7	1.59
May 13	5	9	-2.27
May 14	9	8	3.7
May 15	2	6	-4.68
May 16	7	8	0.17
May 17	2	12	-9.31
May 18	6	5	-0.54
May 19	10	5	8.32
May 20	7	6	3.64
May 21	8	8	0.8
May 22	6	3	4.47
May 23	4	10	-4.4
May 24	6	9	-0.6
May 25	3	7	-3.34
May 26	7	8	0.21
May 27	7	9	-0.75
May 28	6	9	-1.16
May 29	5	10	-0.73
May 30	7	8	0.28
May 31	4	9	-3.89
Jun 1	6	2	4.93
Jun 2	8	7	1.77
Jun 3	7	8	1.01
Jun 4	5	10	-4.6
Jun 5	4	3	1.93
Jun 6	9	6	4.87
Jun 7	5	10	-3.31
Jun 8	4	8	-2.28
Jun 9	8	7	3.39
Jun 10	6	11	-2.6
Jun 11	6	9	0.41
Jun 12	4	5	0.59

Mowgli · Jun 13, 2017

2017 season up 30 units per my records above. Hilight the Black part to see the #s

Betting every underdog blindly

New member

Member

New member

Born Again Gambler

Member

New member

New member

New member

Member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

Member

New member

New member

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page