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Thread: GSW ML/-8 Analysis - FACTS

  1. #1 GSW ML/-8 Analysis - FACTS 
    RX Junior
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    Greetings RX,

    Im a long time lurker here, and just thought I'd share my personal opinion on tonights potential ending season for the year.

    So we have currently GSW, a favorite of -8 on the books.

    First, when these two teams met, GSW has won on average of 25 points while at home. I will exclude point differentials while Cavs are at home, since tonights game is at the Oracle.

    Second, the only time it wasnt a double digit win for the Warriors, was during game 7 at the oracle last year. Otherwise they have won by double digits every game.

    Third, GSW has covered ATS 4-1 this year against the cavs.


    Now, my personal opinion. This is the highest spread that has been given thus far against the cavs since last year (gm 5 opened at -9 as well). And its a FINALS game. I find this to be quite ridiculous. Vegas knows that the high spread will make others avoid the spread and perhaps bet on Cavs. With all this hype going around with CAVS in 7, I am almost positive GSW finishes them off by double digits tonight. (AVOID THE PUBLIC)

    Secondly, I truly believe they were going for the 16-0, however after they realized that the Cavs outscored them in the first half by 20, they gave up. You can tell by Curry's body language that he didn't try, and KD just got his normal 30 to solidify the finals mvp for himself once they win tonight.

    Third, I understand no team has come back from 3-1 in the finals. But no team has come back from 3-0, and find it almost impossible for the Cavs to do this again. I know Hennything is possible, but lets be honest. If they win 4 straight against the Warriors, KD should opt out and sign with the Spurs, since Pop would never let that happen. (semi sarcasm)

    Lastly, Warriors know that this is essentially a must win game. Winning gm 6 at Cavs home will be INSANELY difficult, and game 7 is never a guarantee, as anything can happen. IF somehow, Warriors lose tonight, than I will believe the hype and say Cavs in 7.


    Thus, am I crazy to think that GS ML is free money? Even -8 seems easy money to me.

    I know nothings guaranteed, EVER. However, 6/10 times I believe the above is the right bet. Even if somehow GSW loses tonight, I will be fine with the loss as I know I made the right bet.


    Personal Bet: GSW ML / -8


    Otherwise, someone go against me and tell me i'm wrong. I would love to have a discussion!
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  2. #2  
    RX Local Coldweather's Avatar
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    Good stuff. Welcome and BOL 2 night !
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  3. #3  
    "My Other Vehicle Is a Locomotive" RDTrains's Avatar
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    "I understand no team has come back from 3-1 in the finals."


    Except for last year. Cleveland. Did it in the Finals.
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  4. #4  
    RX Senior
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    In one sentenced you say AVOID THE PUBLIC as if the "public" isn't Golden State pretty much across the board. The casual fan who doesn't even follow basketball will pick GS.

    Then you mention free money in the same post.


    I don't know what will happen tonight but the public will definitely not be on Cleveland ESPECIALLY at Golden State.
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  5. #5  
    RX Junior
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    I meant to say no team has come back from 3-1, until last year. To even win 4 straight against the Warriors is something I personally can't grasp, is what I meant.
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  6. #6  
    RX Local indiana's Avatar
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    Goat/r..........welcome to the RX NBA forum, sure you will enjoy the site ........many good cappers here..........good luck with your action..........indy
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  7. #7  
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    Welcome aboard Goatradamus, but I found a couple incorrect statements you made. The first which is the most important, because you based the majority of youre reasoning on was
    "Now, my personal opinion. This is the highest spread that has been given thus far against the cavs since last year (gm 5 opened at -9 as well). And its a FINALS game. I find this to be quite ridiculous. Vegas knows that the high spread will make others avoid the spread and perhaps bet on Cavs. With all this hype going around with CAVS in 7, I am almost positive GSW finishes them off by double digits tonight. (AVOID THE PUBLIC)"

    This is incorrect as the last Home Game at Oracle was June 4th Game 2. To which it was the largest spread at 9. Which would be higher than todays depending on where you get your line. Also, the Warriors EASILY covered which would make the public, the average Joe, bet Warriors based on that info.
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  8. #8  
    RX Junior
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    BOOOOM! Winner Winner! Chicken Dinnah!!

    Cashed out big on GSW ML and Spread. Hopefully I proved many wrong and those who tailed, good stuff!

    What I meant by public was the media attention, and social media such as facebook and instagram. The whole 3-1 nonsense, along with CAVS IN 7, was just too much attention viewed by the public imo. I could care less about the money being put on gsw, because ultimately Vegas makes money off the juice. People who state, "Can Vegas afford to keep losing?" (most times) is just a method for those to "hope" that they picked the right side this time.

    As I mentioned, it's about making the right bet based on statistics, as opposed to winning the wrong bet.


    It was a decent Finals, and hopefully we get a better playoff series next year. Cheers, and hopefully I see you guys next finals! Enjoy!
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