Football Outsiders' 30 best NFL offenses of the past 30 years
Aaron Schatz
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
6/20/17
What makes a great NFL offense? Is the team with the most points the best offense, or do we look for the offense that most efficiently gains yardage? What if a team scores points because of great special teams, or because it was often given good field position? How much yardage does it take to counter a higher turnover rate? And shouldn't all these questions consider how good the defense is on the other side of the field?
These are the kinds of questions Football Outsiders has been analyzing with our advanced metrics since we launched in 2003. Our DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric accounts for all of this, measuring success on each play based on down and distance, then comparing it with an NFL average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. (You can read more of the details here.) It's built to balance how well a team has played in the past with how well a team will play in the future.
But we aren't just interested in looking at the game today. We're also football historians who love to shine a light on underrated players and teams of the past. That's why we've also spent time going back to past years of the NFL to collect play-by-play data and run our DVOA stats on as many NFL seasons as possible. Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment over the past 30 years.
This offseason, we finally introduced 1987 and 1988 ratings on our website. And since we now have DVOA for every season from 1987 to 2016, we can now do our own Football Outsiders "30 for 30" with 30 years of play-by-play breakdowns. We'll be doing that all week, counting down the 30 best teams of the past 30 years according to DVOA: offense, defense, special teams and overall.
You can find DVOA stats for all 30 seasons on the stats pages at Football Outsiders, but the ratings we run here will be a bit different. That's because for the first time we've also added in postseason performance, boosting teams that went on strong championship runs and lowering teams that dominated the regular season only to trip over their own feet in the playoffs.
Note: 0 percent DVOA represents the league average, so an offense with a +30 percent mark rated 30 percent better than an average unit. Also, stats other than total offensive DVOA represent the regular season only unless noted. Special thanks to Jeremy Snyder, who did most of the transcription work on the late 1980s and early '90s.
30. 1998 Minnesota Vikings
+24.0 percent
One of the quirks of the DVOA system is that it seems to underrate some of the most powerful offenses in NFL history, all from around the turn of the century: the 1998 Vikings and the 1999-2001 Rams. Why are these offenses, all of which scored more than 500 points, not ranked higher in DVOA? There are three reasons.
1) Schedule: DVOA is adjusted for the strength of opponents, and all four of these teams played extremely easy schedules. The 1999 Rams, in particular, played the easiest schedule of opposing defenses of any team in the past 30 years.
2) Domes: DVOA adjusts for the fact that offenses are generally better indoors, and each of these four teams played at least 10 of 16 regular-season games indoors.
3) Long touchdowns: DVOA limits the value of extra-long touchdowns, because explosive plays are difficult to duplicate. Often the only real difference between a 40-yard touchdown and a 60-yard touchdown is where the initial line of scrimmage was, and consistently moving the chains is usually a better indicator of future offensive success than depending on long touchdowns. However, it can certainly be argued that long touchdowns are more consistent for teams at the extremes, and no player over the past 30 years could consistently destroy defenses deep more than Randy Moss.
29. 2000 St. Louis Rams
+24.5 percent
The 2000 Rams couldn't follow up on their Super Bowl title because the defense collapsed, ranking 27th in DVOA that season. However, 2000 was the best year for the "Greatest Show on Turf" offense, even though Kurt Warner got injured and was replaced by Trent Green for five games. The Rams set the all-time NFL record by averaging 6.98 yards per play; no other team since 1960 has been over 6.7. The 2000 Rams also set an all-time record for highest team rushing DVOA (+36.5 percent).
28. 1994 San Francisco 49ers
+24.5 percent
The 49ers faced the easiest offensive schedule in the league in 1994, and their running backs averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. If these rankings included only the regular season, the 49ers would have ranked No. 77 among offenses since 1987. However, they were phenomenal in the postseason, scoring 131 points in three games with only two turnovers.
27. 1993 Dallas Cowboys
+24.8 percent
Troy Aikman threw a league-low six interceptions in 1993, compared with the NFL average of 17. The 1993 Cowboys would move up to No. 19 if we took out the first two weeks of the season, where Emmitt Smith held out and the Cowboys lost 35-16 (to Washington) and 13-10 (to Buffalo).
26. 2006 San Diego Chargers
+25.4 percent
This was LaDainian Tomlinson's MVP year, in which he set an NFL record with 31 total touchdowns and added two more in the soul-crushing AFC divisional-round loss to New England. The 2006 Chargers rank as the No. 10 rushing team in DVOA history, and the 2003 and 2005 Chargers are also in the top 20.
25. 2006 Indianapolis Colts
+25.8 percent
In the regular season, this was one of the most unbalanced teams of the past 30 years: No. 1 on offense but No. 25 on both defense and special teams. The postseason, of course, was a different story, as the defense stiffened and helped Peyton Manning win his first title.
24. 1988 Cincinnati Bengals
+26.5 percent
The Bengals led the NFL in both passing and rushing DVOA. Boomer Esaison led the NFL in passer rating and won the MVP award, and running backs James Brooks and Ickey Woods each averaged 5-plus yards per carry with more than 180 carries apiece. The offense slowed down in the playoffs, scoring just 19.3 points per game on their way to a Super Bowl loss.
23. 1998 San Francisco 49ers
+26.8 percent
Steve Young's last hurrah: He led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns, and Garrison Hearst led all running backs with 5.1 yards per carry. Opponents keyed on Jerry Rice, who caught just 54 percent of his targets, but that opened things up for Terrell Owens to catch 67 passes for 1,097 yards and 14 touchdowns.
22. 1990 Buffalo Bills
+26.8 percent
The Bills led the NFL in offensive DVOA for 1990, but they wouldn't make this list if their postseason performance weren't incorporated. They scored 44 points on the Miami Dolphins (eighth in defensive DVOA that year) and then demolished the Los Angeles Raiders (13th in defensive DVOA) 51-3. In the Super Bowl, of course, they scored only 19 points instead of 22.
21. 2000 Indianapolis Colts
+27.0 percent
The first of six seasons in which Peyton Manning led NFL quarterbacks in passing DVOA. Tom Brady has done it three times, and no other quarterback has done it more than twice. The Colts' rating actually goes up when we add in their 23-17 playoff loss to Miami; the Colts won the turnover battle 3-0, and it's hard to blame Manning and the offense for giving up 258 rushing yards.
20. 1991 Washington Redskins
+27.1 percent
The average NFL team allowed 35 sacks in 1991. The Hogs allowed only nine, and two of those were sacks of backup Jeff Rutledge in a meaningless Week 17 loss. Mark Rypien led the NFL in passing DVOA, and Gerald Riggs was the ultimate short-yardage vulture. Including the playoffs, Riggs carried the ball 21 times inside the 2 and scored on 15 of those.
19. 2016 Atlanta Falcons
+27.2 percent
You might remember these guys. The Falcons' performance last year is even more impressive when you consider their defensive schedule ranked fourth during the 2016 regular season. Nine of their 16 games came against teams ranked 11th or higher in pass defense DVOA.
18. 1992 Dallas Cowboys
+28.3 percent
Michael Irvin led all wide receivers in receiving DYAR, and Emmitt Smith led all running backs in rushing DYAR. (DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, measures a player's total value for a given season rather than value per play.) Their playoff performance gives them a boost in this ranking, with a 34-10 win over Philadelphia (No. 2 in defense in 1992) and then a 52-17 Super Bowl shellacking of Buffalo (No. 10 in defense).
17. 2005 Seattle Seahawks
+29.4 percent
The Seahawks' recent run of success has been driven by defense, but many fans outside the Pacific Northwest forget just how good Seattle's first Super Bowl team was on offense. Shaun Alexander won league MVP with 370 carries for 1,892 yards and 27 touchdowns, and Seattle's top five receivers each caught at least 65 percent of their targets.
16. 2013 Denver Broncos
+31.0 percent
Peyton Manning blew away the NFL record with 55 passing touchdowns, which is how the Broncos rank so high despite a running game that was good but not great (10th in DVOA). This Broncos team has the sixth-best passing DVOA ever despite getting penalized for an easy schedule (30th).
15. 2011 Green Bay Packers
+31.4 percent
This was Aaron Rodgers' greatest season, though it's a bit tarnished by a 37-20 upset loss to the Giants in the divisional round. If we look only at the regular season, the 2011 Packers are the No. 5 offense in DVOA history and are tied with the 2004 Colts as the No. 2 passing offense.
14. 1995 Dallas Cowboys
+31.5 percent
Based on DVOA, this was the strongest offense of the Triplets dynasty, the best season for Michael Irvin and Emmitt Smith. In conventional stats, Smith had 1,773 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry, plus 25 touchdowns. In our advanced stats, Smith had 505 rushing DYAR, the fourth-highest total ever, because all those yards and touchdowns came against a schedule that included six games against the top six run defenses in the league. Meanwhile, Irvin caught 111 passes for 1,603 yards and added another 202 yards in Defensive Pass Interference gains; he earned 591 receiving DYAR, the most productive wide receiver season we've measured in 30 years.
13. 2004 Kansas City Chiefs
+31.6 percent
Here's the first appearance (though the last chronologically) by the great forgotten offensive juggernaut of the modern NFL. Injuries meant the Chiefs had to split their running game between three backs, but Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Derrick Blaylock combined for 2,012 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per carry with 31 rushing touchdowns, plus another 711 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. This is also one of three Tony Gonzalez seasons in the all-time FO top 10 for tight ends (2000 and 2012 are the others). Despite all the offensive firepower, the Chiefs couldn't even manage a winning record. They went 7-9 because they ranked 30th in defensive DVOA and went 3-7 in one-score games.
12. 2012 New England Patriots
+31.8 percent
The 2012 Patriots led the league in points scored despite facing one of the league's 10 hardest defensive schedules. They scored at least 40 points five times in the regular season, then a sixth time against Houston in the playoffs, but Baltimore limited them to a season-low 13 points to win the AFC Championship Game in Foxborough.
11. 1993 San Francisco 49ers
+32.3 percent
San Francisco averaged 6.30 yards per play in 1993, when no other offense was above 5.65. Halfback Ricky Watters, fullback Marc Logan and quarterback Steve Young each averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry compared with an NFL average of 3.9, which is how the 1993 49ers rank No. 4 all time in rushing DVOA despite not having a single runner with more than 1,000 yards.
10. 1989 San Francisco 49ers
+32.4 percent
This was Jerry Rice's best season by FO stats: 1,483 yards and 17 touchdowns with a 64 percent catch rate added up to 563 receiving DYAR, the fourth-highest total of the past 30 years. Joe Montana completed 70.2 percent of his passes, one of only two quarterbacks before the year 2000 to complete 70 percent of passes with at least a dozen games started. Despite these impressive numbers, the 1989 49ers would be 25th in offensive DVOA if we looked only at the regular season. But this team made its legend in the playoffs. The 49ers had a 41-13 win over the Vikings (No. 2 in defensive DVOA), dominated the Rams (No. 13 in defense) 30-3 and then won the Super Bowl 55-10 over the Broncos (No. 4 in defense).
9. 2011 New England Patriots
+32.6 percent
In 2011, Rob Gronkowski had perhaps the greatest season by a tight end in NFL history: 1,329 yards and 18 touchdowns with a 73 percent catch rate. Gronkowski's 461 receiving DYAR in 2011 is the highest ever for a tight end by a gigantic margin, nearly 100 DYAR higher than any other season in our 30-year database. The rest of the Patriots' offense wasn't shabby either: Tom Brady and Wes Welker each finished third at their positions in DYAR, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead combined to put the Patriots fourth in rushing DVOA. The offense was good enough to lift the Patriots to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl despite ranking a dismal 30th in defensive DVOA.
8. 2004 Indianapolis Colts
+33.4 percent
This was arguably Peyton Manning's greatest season, and the Colts dominated offensively in every way you might imagine. As noted earlier, the 2004 Colts are tied with the 2011 Green Bay Packers as the second-best pass offense in DVOA history. Reggie Wayne led all wide receivers in DYAR, with Brandon Stokley finishing fourth and Marvin Harrison 15th. Edgerrin James ranked third among running backs in rushing DYAR and second in receiving DYAR. The Colts' 49-24 wild-card victory over Denver (No. 5 in defensive DVOA) was so commanding that their offensive DVOA actually went up in the playoffs despite a 20-3 loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game.
7. 2003 Kansas City Chiefs
+34.2 percent
This is the one year things came together for the Dick Vermeil-era Chiefs: They went 13-3 because the fantastic offense was paired with the No. 1 special teams (this was the year of Dante Hall) and a defense that improved all the way to 25th. Hey, every bit helps. Priest Holmes led all running backs in both rushing DYAR and success rate, gaining 1,420 yards and 27 touchdowns. He added 74 catches for 690 receiving yards and was second among backs in receiving DYAR, behind Minnesota's Moe Williams, who had a career year. Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receiving value, and Trent Green was second in passing value behind Peyton Manning. In the playoffs, Manning and Green famously dueled in a game in which neither team had to punt even once; the Colts won 38-31.
6. 1992 San Francisco 49ers
+34.3 percent
From an offensive perspective, this was the pinnacle of the 49ers' glory years, and the team went 14-2 despite being just average on defense and special teams. San Francisco led the NFL with both 7.6 net yards per pass attempt and 4.8 rushing yards per carry. This was the most run-focused of the great 49ers teams, partly because wide receiver John Taylor broke his leg halfway through the season against the Jets. However, Steve Young still led all quarterbacks in passing DYAR and finished second in rushing DYAR behind Randall Cunningham, Jerry Rice was fourth in receiving DYAR among wideouts and Brent Jones was No. 1 among tight ends.
5. 2011 New Orleans Saints
+35.3 percent
Eight of the top 10 seasons in Football Outsiders' quarterback DYAR belong to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The two interlopers are Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- both in the same season, 2011. That year saw three offenses play at a historic level, but the Saints were more balanced than the Packers or Patriots, ranking third in passing and second in rushing. Four backs had at least 75 carries for New Orleans, but the standouts were Pierre Thomas (5.1 yards per carry) and Darren Sproles (6.9). Sproles also led all running backs in receiving DYAR and caught 86 passes for 710 yards and seven touchdowns. This was also a big season for Marques Colston (sixth in DYAR among wide receivers) and Jimmy Graham (second among tight ends).
4. 2002 Kansas City Chiefs
+35.4 percent
The Chiefs went 8-8 in 2002, but that sure wasn't Priest Holmes' fault. Holmes gained 5.2 yards per carry for 1,615 rushing yards with 21 touchdowns and added 70 catches for 672 yards and another three touchdowns. By total rushing and receiving DYAR, it was the No. 2 running back season of the past 30 years, trailing only Marshall Faulk's 2000 campaign. Of course, the Chiefs had also led the league in rushing DVOA in 2001. The change in 2002? A huge improvement from the passing game, which went from 17th to first in Trent Green's second season with the Chiefs. Much like today's Chiefs, the passing game of the Vermeil-era Chiefs was based more on running backs and a stud tight end rather than star wide receivers, though Eddie Kennison did have 906 yards and averaged 17.1 yards per reception. This was one of the rare years in which Tony Gonzalez didn't lead tight ends in receiving DYAR; he ranked second behind a career year from Billy Miller of the expansion Texans.
3. 1998 Denver Broncos
+38.3 percent
The 1998 Broncos had to overcome a lot to rank as one of the most powerful offenses in NFL history. Injuries kept John Elway out of three games and most of two others, and they faced the fourth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses that season. The Broncos' offense was not just potent but balanced, one of only two units to rank among the 25 best passing teams and the 25 best rushing teams during this 30-year time frame. The running game was the focus, of course, and only the 2000 Rams and 2011 Panthers had a higher rushing DVOA than the 1998 Broncos. Terrell Davis won the NFL MVP award with more than 2,000 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, even though division rivals San Diego and Oakland ranked first and third in run defense DVOA. (Atlanta, the team Denver beat in the Super Bowl, ranked second.) Combine his performance with the opponent adjustment, and Davis had 602 rushing DYAR, the best season for any back in the past 30 years. The passing game was just as strong: Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith both ranked among the top eight most valuable wide receivers, and Shannon Sharpe was second among tight ends behind New England's Ben Coates.
2. 2010 New England Patriots
+39.4 percent
Only the Patriots could put an historically potent offense on the field during what was effectively a transition year. The Patriots traded one of the greatest receivers in NFL history, Randy Moss, just four games into the season. They rebuilt the offense around two-tight end sets featuring rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and Brady threw 36 touchdowns with just four interceptions. The Patriots also put together a phenomenal running game, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Danny Woodhead averaging 5.6. The Pats led the league in passing DVOA and were second in rushing DVOA, making them other team besides the 1998 Broncos to rank among the top 25 of the past 30 years in both.
The Patriots led the league in scoring despite trading away Moss, but what really drives the high DVOA rating of this season is that they did it while playing the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. Including the upset playoff loss to the Jets, the Patriots had to play 10 of 17 games against teams that ranked ninth or better in defensive DVOA.
1. 2007 New England Patriots
+41.1 percent
The No. 1 offense of the past 30 years probably isn't a surprise to many, although the Patriots fell back a bit after blowing the doors off the league for the first two months of the season. They had 49.3 percent DVOA before the bye week, 35.7 percent for the past seven games of the regular season and then 28.1 percent for the playoffs. Still, the Brady-Moss combination was unstoppable for most of the year. Brady had the most passing DYAR of any quarterback in our database, and Moss ranks second in receiving DYAR behind only Michael Irvin in 1995. The New England offense set a slew of NFL records despite playing a schedule that was slightly tougher than average (11th in the NFL during the regular season).
Aaron Schatz
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
6/20/17
What makes a great NFL offense? Is the team with the most points the best offense, or do we look for the offense that most efficiently gains yardage? What if a team scores points because of great special teams, or because it was often given good field position? How much yardage does it take to counter a higher turnover rate? And shouldn't all these questions consider how good the defense is on the other side of the field?
These are the kinds of questions Football Outsiders has been analyzing with our advanced metrics since we launched in 2003. Our DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric accounts for all of this, measuring success on each play based on down and distance, then comparing it with an NFL average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. (You can read more of the details here.) It's built to balance how well a team has played in the past with how well a team will play in the future.
But we aren't just interested in looking at the game today. We're also football historians who love to shine a light on underrated players and teams of the past. That's why we've also spent time going back to past years of the NFL to collect play-by-play data and run our DVOA stats on as many NFL seasons as possible. Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment over the past 30 years.
This offseason, we finally introduced 1987 and 1988 ratings on our website. And since we now have DVOA for every season from 1987 to 2016, we can now do our own Football Outsiders "30 for 30" with 30 years of play-by-play breakdowns. We'll be doing that all week, counting down the 30 best teams of the past 30 years according to DVOA: offense, defense, special teams and overall.
You can find DVOA stats for all 30 seasons on the stats pages at Football Outsiders, but the ratings we run here will be a bit different. That's because for the first time we've also added in postseason performance, boosting teams that went on strong championship runs and lowering teams that dominated the regular season only to trip over their own feet in the playoffs.
Note: 0 percent DVOA represents the league average, so an offense with a +30 percent mark rated 30 percent better than an average unit. Also, stats other than total offensive DVOA represent the regular season only unless noted. Special thanks to Jeremy Snyder, who did most of the transcription work on the late 1980s and early '90s.
30. 1998 Minnesota Vikings
+24.0 percent
One of the quirks of the DVOA system is that it seems to underrate some of the most powerful offenses in NFL history, all from around the turn of the century: the 1998 Vikings and the 1999-2001 Rams. Why are these offenses, all of which scored more than 500 points, not ranked higher in DVOA? There are three reasons.
1) Schedule: DVOA is adjusted for the strength of opponents, and all four of these teams played extremely easy schedules. The 1999 Rams, in particular, played the easiest schedule of opposing defenses of any team in the past 30 years.
2) Domes: DVOA adjusts for the fact that offenses are generally better indoors, and each of these four teams played at least 10 of 16 regular-season games indoors.
3) Long touchdowns: DVOA limits the value of extra-long touchdowns, because explosive plays are difficult to duplicate. Often the only real difference between a 40-yard touchdown and a 60-yard touchdown is where the initial line of scrimmage was, and consistently moving the chains is usually a better indicator of future offensive success than depending on long touchdowns. However, it can certainly be argued that long touchdowns are more consistent for teams at the extremes, and no player over the past 30 years could consistently destroy defenses deep more than Randy Moss.
29. 2000 St. Louis Rams
+24.5 percent
The 2000 Rams couldn't follow up on their Super Bowl title because the defense collapsed, ranking 27th in DVOA that season. However, 2000 was the best year for the "Greatest Show on Turf" offense, even though Kurt Warner got injured and was replaced by Trent Green for five games. The Rams set the all-time NFL record by averaging 6.98 yards per play; no other team since 1960 has been over 6.7. The 2000 Rams also set an all-time record for highest team rushing DVOA (+36.5 percent).
28. 1994 San Francisco 49ers
+24.5 percent
The 49ers faced the easiest offensive schedule in the league in 1994, and their running backs averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. If these rankings included only the regular season, the 49ers would have ranked No. 77 among offenses since 1987. However, they were phenomenal in the postseason, scoring 131 points in three games with only two turnovers.
27. 1993 Dallas Cowboys
+24.8 percent
Troy Aikman threw a league-low six interceptions in 1993, compared with the NFL average of 17. The 1993 Cowboys would move up to No. 19 if we took out the first two weeks of the season, where Emmitt Smith held out and the Cowboys lost 35-16 (to Washington) and 13-10 (to Buffalo).
26. 2006 San Diego Chargers
+25.4 percent
This was LaDainian Tomlinson's MVP year, in which he set an NFL record with 31 total touchdowns and added two more in the soul-crushing AFC divisional-round loss to New England. The 2006 Chargers rank as the No. 10 rushing team in DVOA history, and the 2003 and 2005 Chargers are also in the top 20.
25. 2006 Indianapolis Colts
+25.8 percent
In the regular season, this was one of the most unbalanced teams of the past 30 years: No. 1 on offense but No. 25 on both defense and special teams. The postseason, of course, was a different story, as the defense stiffened and helped Peyton Manning win his first title.
24. 1988 Cincinnati Bengals
+26.5 percent
The Bengals led the NFL in both passing and rushing DVOA. Boomer Esaison led the NFL in passer rating and won the MVP award, and running backs James Brooks and Ickey Woods each averaged 5-plus yards per carry with more than 180 carries apiece. The offense slowed down in the playoffs, scoring just 19.3 points per game on their way to a Super Bowl loss.
23. 1998 San Francisco 49ers
+26.8 percent
Steve Young's last hurrah: He led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns, and Garrison Hearst led all running backs with 5.1 yards per carry. Opponents keyed on Jerry Rice, who caught just 54 percent of his targets, but that opened things up for Terrell Owens to catch 67 passes for 1,097 yards and 14 touchdowns.
22. 1990 Buffalo Bills
+26.8 percent
The Bills led the NFL in offensive DVOA for 1990, but they wouldn't make this list if their postseason performance weren't incorporated. They scored 44 points on the Miami Dolphins (eighth in defensive DVOA that year) and then demolished the Los Angeles Raiders (13th in defensive DVOA) 51-3. In the Super Bowl, of course, they scored only 19 points instead of 22.
21. 2000 Indianapolis Colts
+27.0 percent
The first of six seasons in which Peyton Manning led NFL quarterbacks in passing DVOA. Tom Brady has done it three times, and no other quarterback has done it more than twice. The Colts' rating actually goes up when we add in their 23-17 playoff loss to Miami; the Colts won the turnover battle 3-0, and it's hard to blame Manning and the offense for giving up 258 rushing yards.
20. 1991 Washington Redskins
+27.1 percent
The average NFL team allowed 35 sacks in 1991. The Hogs allowed only nine, and two of those were sacks of backup Jeff Rutledge in a meaningless Week 17 loss. Mark Rypien led the NFL in passing DVOA, and Gerald Riggs was the ultimate short-yardage vulture. Including the playoffs, Riggs carried the ball 21 times inside the 2 and scored on 15 of those.
19. 2016 Atlanta Falcons
+27.2 percent
You might remember these guys. The Falcons' performance last year is even more impressive when you consider their defensive schedule ranked fourth during the 2016 regular season. Nine of their 16 games came against teams ranked 11th or higher in pass defense DVOA.
18. 1992 Dallas Cowboys
+28.3 percent
Michael Irvin led all wide receivers in receiving DYAR, and Emmitt Smith led all running backs in rushing DYAR. (DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, measures a player's total value for a given season rather than value per play.) Their playoff performance gives them a boost in this ranking, with a 34-10 win over Philadelphia (No. 2 in defense in 1992) and then a 52-17 Super Bowl shellacking of Buffalo (No. 10 in defense).
17. 2005 Seattle Seahawks
+29.4 percent
The Seahawks' recent run of success has been driven by defense, but many fans outside the Pacific Northwest forget just how good Seattle's first Super Bowl team was on offense. Shaun Alexander won league MVP with 370 carries for 1,892 yards and 27 touchdowns, and Seattle's top five receivers each caught at least 65 percent of their targets.
16. 2013 Denver Broncos
+31.0 percent
Peyton Manning blew away the NFL record with 55 passing touchdowns, which is how the Broncos rank so high despite a running game that was good but not great (10th in DVOA). This Broncos team has the sixth-best passing DVOA ever despite getting penalized for an easy schedule (30th).
15. 2011 Green Bay Packers
+31.4 percent
This was Aaron Rodgers' greatest season, though it's a bit tarnished by a 37-20 upset loss to the Giants in the divisional round. If we look only at the regular season, the 2011 Packers are the No. 5 offense in DVOA history and are tied with the 2004 Colts as the No. 2 passing offense.
14. 1995 Dallas Cowboys
+31.5 percent
Based on DVOA, this was the strongest offense of the Triplets dynasty, the best season for Michael Irvin and Emmitt Smith. In conventional stats, Smith had 1,773 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry, plus 25 touchdowns. In our advanced stats, Smith had 505 rushing DYAR, the fourth-highest total ever, because all those yards and touchdowns came against a schedule that included six games against the top six run defenses in the league. Meanwhile, Irvin caught 111 passes for 1,603 yards and added another 202 yards in Defensive Pass Interference gains; he earned 591 receiving DYAR, the most productive wide receiver season we've measured in 30 years.
13. 2004 Kansas City Chiefs
+31.6 percent
Here's the first appearance (though the last chronologically) by the great forgotten offensive juggernaut of the modern NFL. Injuries meant the Chiefs had to split their running game between three backs, but Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Derrick Blaylock combined for 2,012 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per carry with 31 rushing touchdowns, plus another 711 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. This is also one of three Tony Gonzalez seasons in the all-time FO top 10 for tight ends (2000 and 2012 are the others). Despite all the offensive firepower, the Chiefs couldn't even manage a winning record. They went 7-9 because they ranked 30th in defensive DVOA and went 3-7 in one-score games.
12. 2012 New England Patriots
+31.8 percent
The 2012 Patriots led the league in points scored despite facing one of the league's 10 hardest defensive schedules. They scored at least 40 points five times in the regular season, then a sixth time against Houston in the playoffs, but Baltimore limited them to a season-low 13 points to win the AFC Championship Game in Foxborough.
11. 1993 San Francisco 49ers
+32.3 percent
San Francisco averaged 6.30 yards per play in 1993, when no other offense was above 5.65. Halfback Ricky Watters, fullback Marc Logan and quarterback Steve Young each averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry compared with an NFL average of 3.9, which is how the 1993 49ers rank No. 4 all time in rushing DVOA despite not having a single runner with more than 1,000 yards.
10. 1989 San Francisco 49ers
+32.4 percent
This was Jerry Rice's best season by FO stats: 1,483 yards and 17 touchdowns with a 64 percent catch rate added up to 563 receiving DYAR, the fourth-highest total of the past 30 years. Joe Montana completed 70.2 percent of his passes, one of only two quarterbacks before the year 2000 to complete 70 percent of passes with at least a dozen games started. Despite these impressive numbers, the 1989 49ers would be 25th in offensive DVOA if we looked only at the regular season. But this team made its legend in the playoffs. The 49ers had a 41-13 win over the Vikings (No. 2 in defensive DVOA), dominated the Rams (No. 13 in defense) 30-3 and then won the Super Bowl 55-10 over the Broncos (No. 4 in defense).
9. 2011 New England Patriots
+32.6 percent
In 2011, Rob Gronkowski had perhaps the greatest season by a tight end in NFL history: 1,329 yards and 18 touchdowns with a 73 percent catch rate. Gronkowski's 461 receiving DYAR in 2011 is the highest ever for a tight end by a gigantic margin, nearly 100 DYAR higher than any other season in our 30-year database. The rest of the Patriots' offense wasn't shabby either: Tom Brady and Wes Welker each finished third at their positions in DYAR, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead combined to put the Patriots fourth in rushing DVOA. The offense was good enough to lift the Patriots to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl despite ranking a dismal 30th in defensive DVOA.
8. 2004 Indianapolis Colts
+33.4 percent
This was arguably Peyton Manning's greatest season, and the Colts dominated offensively in every way you might imagine. As noted earlier, the 2004 Colts are tied with the 2011 Green Bay Packers as the second-best pass offense in DVOA history. Reggie Wayne led all wide receivers in DYAR, with Brandon Stokley finishing fourth and Marvin Harrison 15th. Edgerrin James ranked third among running backs in rushing DYAR and second in receiving DYAR. The Colts' 49-24 wild-card victory over Denver (No. 5 in defensive DVOA) was so commanding that their offensive DVOA actually went up in the playoffs despite a 20-3 loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game.
7. 2003 Kansas City Chiefs
+34.2 percent
This is the one year things came together for the Dick Vermeil-era Chiefs: They went 13-3 because the fantastic offense was paired with the No. 1 special teams (this was the year of Dante Hall) and a defense that improved all the way to 25th. Hey, every bit helps. Priest Holmes led all running backs in both rushing DYAR and success rate, gaining 1,420 yards and 27 touchdowns. He added 74 catches for 690 receiving yards and was second among backs in receiving DYAR, behind Minnesota's Moe Williams, who had a career year. Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receiving value, and Trent Green was second in passing value behind Peyton Manning. In the playoffs, Manning and Green famously dueled in a game in which neither team had to punt even once; the Colts won 38-31.
6. 1992 San Francisco 49ers
+34.3 percent
From an offensive perspective, this was the pinnacle of the 49ers' glory years, and the team went 14-2 despite being just average on defense and special teams. San Francisco led the NFL with both 7.6 net yards per pass attempt and 4.8 rushing yards per carry. This was the most run-focused of the great 49ers teams, partly because wide receiver John Taylor broke his leg halfway through the season against the Jets. However, Steve Young still led all quarterbacks in passing DYAR and finished second in rushing DYAR behind Randall Cunningham, Jerry Rice was fourth in receiving DYAR among wideouts and Brent Jones was No. 1 among tight ends.
5. 2011 New Orleans Saints
+35.3 percent
Eight of the top 10 seasons in Football Outsiders' quarterback DYAR belong to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The two interlopers are Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- both in the same season, 2011. That year saw three offenses play at a historic level, but the Saints were more balanced than the Packers or Patriots, ranking third in passing and second in rushing. Four backs had at least 75 carries for New Orleans, but the standouts were Pierre Thomas (5.1 yards per carry) and Darren Sproles (6.9). Sproles also led all running backs in receiving DYAR and caught 86 passes for 710 yards and seven touchdowns. This was also a big season for Marques Colston (sixth in DYAR among wide receivers) and Jimmy Graham (second among tight ends).
4. 2002 Kansas City Chiefs
+35.4 percent
The Chiefs went 8-8 in 2002, but that sure wasn't Priest Holmes' fault. Holmes gained 5.2 yards per carry for 1,615 rushing yards with 21 touchdowns and added 70 catches for 672 yards and another three touchdowns. By total rushing and receiving DYAR, it was the No. 2 running back season of the past 30 years, trailing only Marshall Faulk's 2000 campaign. Of course, the Chiefs had also led the league in rushing DVOA in 2001. The change in 2002? A huge improvement from the passing game, which went from 17th to first in Trent Green's second season with the Chiefs. Much like today's Chiefs, the passing game of the Vermeil-era Chiefs was based more on running backs and a stud tight end rather than star wide receivers, though Eddie Kennison did have 906 yards and averaged 17.1 yards per reception. This was one of the rare years in which Tony Gonzalez didn't lead tight ends in receiving DYAR; he ranked second behind a career year from Billy Miller of the expansion Texans.
3. 1998 Denver Broncos
+38.3 percent
The 1998 Broncos had to overcome a lot to rank as one of the most powerful offenses in NFL history. Injuries kept John Elway out of three games and most of two others, and they faced the fourth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses that season. The Broncos' offense was not just potent but balanced, one of only two units to rank among the 25 best passing teams and the 25 best rushing teams during this 30-year time frame. The running game was the focus, of course, and only the 2000 Rams and 2011 Panthers had a higher rushing DVOA than the 1998 Broncos. Terrell Davis won the NFL MVP award with more than 2,000 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, even though division rivals San Diego and Oakland ranked first and third in run defense DVOA. (Atlanta, the team Denver beat in the Super Bowl, ranked second.) Combine his performance with the opponent adjustment, and Davis had 602 rushing DYAR, the best season for any back in the past 30 years. The passing game was just as strong: Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith both ranked among the top eight most valuable wide receivers, and Shannon Sharpe was second among tight ends behind New England's Ben Coates.
2. 2010 New England Patriots
+39.4 percent
Only the Patriots could put an historically potent offense on the field during what was effectively a transition year. The Patriots traded one of the greatest receivers in NFL history, Randy Moss, just four games into the season. They rebuilt the offense around two-tight end sets featuring rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and Brady threw 36 touchdowns with just four interceptions. The Patriots also put together a phenomenal running game, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Danny Woodhead averaging 5.6. The Pats led the league in passing DVOA and were second in rushing DVOA, making them other team besides the 1998 Broncos to rank among the top 25 of the past 30 years in both.
The Patriots led the league in scoring despite trading away Moss, but what really drives the high DVOA rating of this season is that they did it while playing the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. Including the upset playoff loss to the Jets, the Patriots had to play 10 of 17 games against teams that ranked ninth or better in defensive DVOA.
1. 2007 New England Patriots
+41.1 percent
The No. 1 offense of the past 30 years probably isn't a surprise to many, although the Patriots fell back a bit after blowing the doors off the league for the first two months of the season. They had 49.3 percent DVOA before the bye week, 35.7 percent for the past seven games of the regular season and then 28.1 percent for the playoffs. Still, the Brady-Moss combination was unstoppable for most of the year. Brady had the most passing DYAR of any quarterback in our database, and Moss ranks second in receiving DYAR behind only Michael Irvin in 1995. The New England offense set a slew of NFL records despite playing a schedule that was slightly tougher than average (11th in the NFL during the regular season).
