<!--?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?-->My Projected Lines and the odds
Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will start a series and it looks like majority of bettors will be Milwaukee side. There is probably couple of reason for that and one of those is that Milwaukee is 8-5 in last 13 games, while Cincinnati won only 2 games in last 13 games. Bookmakers still set Cincinnati as a favourite here and Milwaukee as an underdog. We can get Cincinnati at around 1.79. Based on my predictive model, I have projected, that Cincinnati should have a chance of around 60.7% to win this game and because of that my projected odds on Cincinnati are at 1.65 (US odds -155). Bookmakers offer me 1.79 on Cincinnati and because of that there is calculated vale for me with the Reds.
Match Up
Cincinnati beat Washington 2 days ago and then they lost another game against St Louis on the road. I mentioned, that they have only 2 wins in last 13 games, but we must also include home/away factor here, because Cincinnati played all those games on the road and the only series in this stretch was at home against top team - LA Dodgers. Those road games were tough for them, but at home they have winning record of 19-18.
Cincinnati will start with Adleman, who is 4-4 to the season with ERA of 4.43, but he has winning home record of 3-1 with ERA of 4.15. Seven Milwaukee batters saw him in the past and combined 23 at bats and batting average of 0.174.
On the other side we have Junior Guerra, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA 3.11, but don’t be fooled by his ERA numbers, because those numbers don’t show us the whole picture about this pitcher. His BB/K ratio is just 22/27 in 37.7 innings pitched this season. In last 3 starts he allowed 3 runs in each game and he walked more than he struck out. Not only, that he struck less than he walked, but he also walked 13 hitters and allowed 4 home runs in last 18 innings.
Reason for pick
Cincinnati struggled last weeks, but they also had pretty tough schedule. They played most of the games on the road and the only home series in this stretch was at home versus Dodgers. And we all know that Dodgers are the best team in National League and second best in whole MLB (W-L record). Today they will face a shaky pitcher, who walks a lot of hitters. Cincinnati has winning record at home, they score 5.5 runs per game at home, which is more than Milwaukee in this situation (road: 4.5). Cincinnati scores 5.1 runs per game versus right handed pitchers, while Milwaukee 4.6. And when we take into account that Milwaukee has slightly weaker bullpen in this situation, I think that we have a bet on Cincinnati for this price. Not big play, but I think Cincinnati above 1.77 is a good play for 1 unit.
Play Cincinnati
Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will start a series and it looks like majority of bettors will be Milwaukee side. There is probably couple of reason for that and one of those is that Milwaukee is 8-5 in last 13 games, while Cincinnati won only 2 games in last 13 games. Bookmakers still set Cincinnati as a favourite here and Milwaukee as an underdog. We can get Cincinnati at around 1.79. Based on my predictive model, I have projected, that Cincinnati should have a chance of around 60.7% to win this game and because of that my projected odds on Cincinnati are at 1.65 (US odds -155). Bookmakers offer me 1.79 on Cincinnati and because of that there is calculated vale for me with the Reds.
Match Up
Cincinnati beat Washington 2 days ago and then they lost another game against St Louis on the road. I mentioned, that they have only 2 wins in last 13 games, but we must also include home/away factor here, because Cincinnati played all those games on the road and the only series in this stretch was at home against top team - LA Dodgers. Those road games were tough for them, but at home they have winning record of 19-18.
Cincinnati will start with Adleman, who is 4-4 to the season with ERA of 4.43, but he has winning home record of 3-1 with ERA of 4.15. Seven Milwaukee batters saw him in the past and combined 23 at bats and batting average of 0.174.
On the other side we have Junior Guerra, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA 3.11, but don’t be fooled by his ERA numbers, because those numbers don’t show us the whole picture about this pitcher. His BB/K ratio is just 22/27 in 37.7 innings pitched this season. In last 3 starts he allowed 3 runs in each game and he walked more than he struck out. Not only, that he struck less than he walked, but he also walked 13 hitters and allowed 4 home runs in last 18 innings.
Reason for pick
Cincinnati struggled last weeks, but they also had pretty tough schedule. They played most of the games on the road and the only home series in this stretch was at home versus Dodgers. And we all know that Dodgers are the best team in National League and second best in whole MLB (W-L record). Today they will face a shaky pitcher, who walks a lot of hitters. Cincinnati has winning record at home, they score 5.5 runs per game at home, which is more than Milwaukee in this situation (road: 4.5). Cincinnati scores 5.1 runs per game versus right handed pitchers, while Milwaukee 4.6. And when we take into account that Milwaukee has slightly weaker bullpen in this situation, I think that we have a bet on Cincinnati for this price. Not big play, but I think Cincinnati above 1.77 is a good play for 1 unit.
Play Cincinnati
