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Thread: Alabama vs FSU huge bet...talk some sense into me!

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  1. #1 Alabama vs FSU huge bet...talk some sense into me! 
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    As all the long term members of this forum know, I'm really dialed in on Bama and I normally start the year off with a giant bet on Bama because of line value.

    I won 32k on the Bama/USC game last year and I plan to be in Vegas for the game on the 2nd this year as well.

    unfortunately the line has shifted from -5.5 to -7 very quickly. I still see value at -7, but certainly not as much. I was planning on betting 44k to win 40k if the line was under -7. I was now thinking of buying it down to -6.5 and spending 48k to win 40k. Someone tell me why I shouldn't do it...
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  2. #2  
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    Well you know the old saying right, past history does not guarantee future performance. Personally, I would suggest a bet size of 3% of bankroll, you do the math.
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Husky Jerk View Post
    Well you know the old saying right, past history does not guarantee future performance. Personally, I would suggest a bet size of 3% of bankroll, you do the math.
    Dang Husky, you're beginning to show/make a lot of sense here. I'm a Bama guy for many years and when posters BRAG about how much they bet, how much they won, how much more Bullxxxx they are proud of. I just smile and walk away.

    Guessing you do the same my friend.
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  4. #4  
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    Homers making money backing their team is not a long term sustainable option imo. I would advise money management principles first and foremost, but if you have that kind of money not sure what kind of advice I can offer.
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  5. #5  
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    Certainly true on both fronts husky, but I don't get to bet weekly so I tend to make 2-3 heavy bets per year. It is just my entertainment and I know the grinding rules. I was not bragging, these are facts that were posted last year clover...and I am asking for serious forum advice.
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  6. #6  
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    I sure as hell wouldn't be on a betting site were the average bet is probably $10 bragging about it.

    Too each their own I guess...as long as some NEWBY is not sucked into the BS.
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  7. #7  
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    One thing I can offer is sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Betting into a -5.5 to -7 line move is probably not a good idea and sometimes you are just too late to the party so why force the action?
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  8. #8  
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    Shut your mouth clover if you don't know the facts. Do not drag my good name through the mud sir.
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  9. #9  
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    That is what I am feeling husky, that's why I'm trying to get talked out of my bet. I already booked the Vegas trip though, so it will be tough to hold off!
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  10. #10  
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    Yeah I would not be in any hurry to lay 7 right now, maybe you can get -6.5 if you wait.
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  11. #11  
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    I won't be in Vegas until the 29th of August so I have to wait...and I am crossing all fingers and toes that it drops again!
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  12. #12  
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    Think it moves to 7.5-8 myself
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  13. #13  
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    I can certainly see that happening Stevie...that would kill my large action, what do you think I should do if it stays at 7 though...?
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swalker View Post
    Shut your mouth clover if you don't know the facts. Do not drag my good name through the mud sir.
    Yes Sir! Love to here the $40,000 to $1,000,000 bettors on this fine network.

    Prince on dude.....why worry about a 10 cent poster who doubts you?
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  15. #15  
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    Last years bet was the largest of my life. This will supplant last years bet as the largest of my life. I am a doctor not a prince. I posted all of my tickets from Vegas last year, so please just respect the fact that my bets are real. I am a horrible gambler, and I have said as such on this forum. But, I have been super hot betting Bama games, both sides, for the last few years. Thus, I don't want your false narrative clouding the others that are new to the site sir.
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  16. #16  
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    It's 7 1/2 (105) at 5Dimes right now and like Stevie Ray, I think it may creep up some more. Cook was a big loss for FSU but Francois could be one of the better qb's in the nation this year and could keep FSU in the national title mix. Defense is bringing back 9 starters and they played much better the 2nd half of 2016. Also getting a starting safety (James)back who missed all of 2016 and he should be one of the best in the game. I think the ACC strength and title go through Tallahassee this year. A lot of experts have FSU in the top 5 this year but you know how that goes.

    Lots of talent on the field that night and in a brand new stadium. Bama is deep and that gives them the edge. Game may be a little closer than many think. Bama is one of those teams that screw me when I bet on or against them so I will probably lay off the game and just enjoy watching

    Either way, best of luck on your play
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  17. #17  
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    I'm not touching this game. Personally, I think FSU is going to be REALLY good. Jimbo is the best QB coach in the country and they return a ton of talent. Alabama is breaking in a new OC, but obviously has a ton of talent - on both sides of the ball. I can see this being close, somewhere in the 27-21, 30-24 type game (w/ either team winning, not just Bama by 6). This should be closer to a toss-up to me, w/ Bama getting the benefit of the doubt and getting a few points (-3-ish). Obviously I'm an idiot, so who knows?

    Good luck either way!
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swalker View Post
    I can certainly see that happening Stevie...that would kill my large action, what do you think I should do if it stays at 7 though...?

    If i I were confident in the game I wouldn't have a problem laying a TD. But Fla St has some talent , do I think it will be like all opening Bama games? Probably. But that Clemson blown game still has to sting. But Saban is known for getting the sting out and come out firing

    if its that much $ I would drop the wager amount and buy to 6 or 6.5 to lose $40k. I think Bamas D wears them down late
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  19. #19  
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    [QUOTE=CoachCB;12166717]I'm not touching this game. Personally, I think FSU is going to be REALLY good. Jimbo is the best QB coach in the country and they return a ton of talent. Alabama is breaking in a new OC, but obviously has a ton of talent


    Calm own Coach, I know where you are coming from with your well- thought comments, and, you are NOT an idiot. Let's just chalk-it up to a few pre-season "betting jitters" which we've all experienced over the years.....
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  20. #20  
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    [QUOTE=Mack Donald;12167001]
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    I'm not touching this game. Personally, I think FSU is going to be REALLY good. Jimbo is the best QB coach in the country and they return a ton of talent. Alabama is breaking in a new OC, but obviously has a ton of talent


    Calm own Coach, I know where you are coming from with your well- thought comments, and, you are NOT an idiot. Let's just chalk-it up to a few pre-season "betting jitters" which we've all experienced over the years.....
    Mac, I think the opening weekend games are great opportunities to make some easy money....as teams are still unknowns at this point in the season. I just think this game - at 7 or more points - is risky. FSU has recruited as well as any program not named Bama or Ohio State. So I'm not as confident as some are in this thread. Bama has been MONEY though in these openers. Again, I'm staying away from this one. If someone can convince me otherwise I might reconsider....we still have about 60 days!
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  21. #21  
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    Saban's record in these type of games is exceptional. I think your strategy is sound but wouldn't buy the point. Shop around when you get to Vegas.
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  22. #22  
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    This will be the most heavily wagered CFB game of the week with the bulk of the small betters on Bama early based on its historical performance. I imagine the money will come in late on the dog. Either bet it now before it gets steamed or wait for the late money to push the line back down.
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  23. #23  
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    Thank you so much for the constructive advise guys...and please keep it coming. As coach said you have roughly 60 days to convince me not to pull the trigger at -7 or lower...
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  24. #24  
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    They had three common opponents last year, and from watching those games I can't say that Alabama was the better team last year. Maybe slightly, but not clearly, and FSU is bringing back more from last year.
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  25. #25  
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    Huge game but either could lose and still be in the national hunt at the end of the year, better to lose a game in September than November. That being said, both teams will be prepared and it may be closer than expected. Like someone said earlier, 8 weeks can change a lot of things.

    Already getting pumped, it will be here before we know it
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