Comeback kids: American Dream Meadowlands and the New Jersey sports betting case
John Brennan
6/30/17
As little as a month or two ago, anyone who wanted to play an exacta of American Dream Meadowlands and the New Jersey sports betting case both being alive and well at mid-year might well have been laughed out of the room.
Now? They that person seems more like a prophet - and a prophet with a very good chance to win big.
Both long-running sagas achieved monumental milestones this week, with the shopping and entertainment project having a final closing on a $2.8 billion dollar financing package and the U.S. Supreme Court agreeing to take the sports betting case.
Both sagas have something else in common - the general public still can't get its ahead around the idea that success could be right around the corner.
But these achievements don't just mean they might happen - it means it's likely that they WILL happen. And I say this having covered one setback after the other in the sports betting case for eight years and the American Dream and its predecessor Meadowlands Xanadu for a whopping15 years.
Why do I say that? Very different reasons in each case.
As I wrote in The Record on Thursday, the likelihood of success in the New Jersey sports betting case stems from the track record of the Supreme Court, which has overturned 72 percent of its cases in the last five years while overturning 83 percent last year.
An obvious reason is that the Justices wouldn't have taken the case in the first place if several of them already hadn't noticed something about the case that raised Constitutional questions.
There are several in this case. For one, it's the only law Congress has made that outlaws behavior - well, except one state (Nevada) gets to ignore this law and three others (Delaware, Montana, Oregon) can revive limited sports betting like they had in some cases more than a decade earlier. Is that "unequal sovereignty?"
Maybe.
And the Court has only weighed in - ever - on two "commandeering" cases. Remember "Congress shall make no law......"? Well, that's part of the principle that the federal government has Constitutional limits on what it can impose on states.
New Jerseyans voted 2 to 1 in 2011 that they wanted to offer sports betting at state racetracks and casinos, the state Legislature agreed, and Governor Christie signed the bill into law in 2012. But the two sports betting laws have been voided by a federal judge and his superiors anyway. Is that "commandeering"
Maybe.
Most important to realize is that the 28 percent of cases not overturned in the last five years includes many where the Court had to take a case because of contradictory rulings in different Circuits. In that case "affirm" just means they picked the version before them.
For American Dream Meadowlands, what's important to understand is that the formal closing on Thursday means that the $2.8 billion is money in the bank - literally. They have the funds.
But what if it ultimately costs more than that? Well, that's not developer Triple Five's problem. As I saw over and over with all the new stadiums and arenas built in the New York/New Jersey metro area in the last decade, a "Guaranteed Maximum Price" means the company building the facility promises to complete it for that price. If it costs more, then maybe they lose money. But it still gets built.
No odds on anything ever reach 100 percent. But in this case - and it's hard for me not to get wide-eyed when I type this, when I think of countless setbacks for each over the years - the default mode now is a "yes" for both. Believe it - or not.
When? March 2019 is the latest opening date scheduled for American Dream.
The sports betting case likely will be decided in the first half of 2018. Monmouth Park would be prepared to offer the bets almost immediately, while the other tracks and the Atlantic City casinos likely would seek to be ready that fall for the start of another NFL season.
John Brennan
6/30/17
As little as a month or two ago, anyone who wanted to play an exacta of American Dream Meadowlands and the New Jersey sports betting case both being alive and well at mid-year might well have been laughed out of the room.
Now? They that person seems more like a prophet - and a prophet with a very good chance to win big.
Both long-running sagas achieved monumental milestones this week, with the shopping and entertainment project having a final closing on a $2.8 billion dollar financing package and the U.S. Supreme Court agreeing to take the sports betting case.
Both sagas have something else in common - the general public still can't get its ahead around the idea that success could be right around the corner.
But these achievements don't just mean they might happen - it means it's likely that they WILL happen. And I say this having covered one setback after the other in the sports betting case for eight years and the American Dream and its predecessor Meadowlands Xanadu for a whopping15 years.
Why do I say that? Very different reasons in each case.
As I wrote in The Record on Thursday, the likelihood of success in the New Jersey sports betting case stems from the track record of the Supreme Court, which has overturned 72 percent of its cases in the last five years while overturning 83 percent last year.
An obvious reason is that the Justices wouldn't have taken the case in the first place if several of them already hadn't noticed something about the case that raised Constitutional questions.
There are several in this case. For one, it's the only law Congress has made that outlaws behavior - well, except one state (Nevada) gets to ignore this law and three others (Delaware, Montana, Oregon) can revive limited sports betting like they had in some cases more than a decade earlier. Is that "unequal sovereignty?"
Maybe.
And the Court has only weighed in - ever - on two "commandeering" cases. Remember "Congress shall make no law......"? Well, that's part of the principle that the federal government has Constitutional limits on what it can impose on states.
New Jerseyans voted 2 to 1 in 2011 that they wanted to offer sports betting at state racetracks and casinos, the state Legislature agreed, and Governor Christie signed the bill into law in 2012. But the two sports betting laws have been voided by a federal judge and his superiors anyway. Is that "commandeering"
Maybe.
Most important to realize is that the 28 percent of cases not overturned in the last five years includes many where the Court had to take a case because of contradictory rulings in different Circuits. In that case "affirm" just means they picked the version before them.
For American Dream Meadowlands, what's important to understand is that the formal closing on Thursday means that the $2.8 billion is money in the bank - literally. They have the funds.
But what if it ultimately costs more than that? Well, that's not developer Triple Five's problem. As I saw over and over with all the new stadiums and arenas built in the New York/New Jersey metro area in the last decade, a "Guaranteed Maximum Price" means the company building the facility promises to complete it for that price. If it costs more, then maybe they lose money. But it still gets built.
No odds on anything ever reach 100 percent. But in this case - and it's hard for me not to get wide-eyed when I type this, when I think of countless setbacks for each over the years - the default mode now is a "yes" for both. Believe it - or not.
When? March 2019 is the latest opening date scheduled for American Dream.
The sports betting case likely will be decided in the first half of 2018. Monmouth Park would be prepared to offer the bets almost immediately, while the other tracks and the Atlantic City casinos likely would seek to be ready that fall for the start of another NFL season.
